Kensington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18199 (52.3%)
Labour: 10838 (31.1%)
Lib Dem: 1962 (5.6%)
Green: 1765 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1557 (4.5%)
Others: 507 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 7361 (21.1%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Kensington and Chelsea council area.

Main population centres: Kensington, Earl`s Court, Brompton, Holland Park, Notting Hill.

Profile: A residential seat west of central London. Kensington is one of the most solidly Conservative parts of the country, the housing is largely expensive garden squares and Georgian terraces. Kensington High Street is an upmarket shopping hub, Kensington Palace is the residence of several members of the Royal Family and Kensington Palace Gardens the site of many embassies and a few private residences for the super-rich. South Kensington is the museum district, home to the Natural History Museum, the Science Museum and the Victoria and Albert and is somewhat more cosmopolitan, housing the halls of residence for Imperial College. As well as Kensington itself the seat covers Earls Court, Brompton, Holland Park and Notting Hill. Earls Court is far more run down and cheaper than it`s richer neighbour and while it it undergoing rapid gentrification and contains its own areas of the super-rich, there are still cheap areas of run down hotels and bedsits. Notting Hill today is an affluent and trendy area associated politically with David Cameron and the younger Conservative set surrounding him, and more widely with the Notting Hill carnival, led by the area`s Afro-Carribean community. It is a highly cosmopolitan area, and having fallen on hard times in the twentieth century and become associated with dingy flats and houses of multiple occupancy it has undergone rapid gentrification. These days while the old Victorian private houses are sought after, there is much social housing and there remains a large ethnic population and areas of social deprivation in North Kensington and Ladbroke Grove. Whereas the Kensington wards are safely Conservative, northern wards like Notting Barns and Colville reliably return Labour councillors.

Politics: Kensington and Chelsea has had a high turnover of high profile MPs. When originally created in 1997 it selected the Chelsea MP Sir Nicholas Scott, who was forced to stand down prior to the election over accusations of alcoholism after being found in a gutter in Bournemouth. The seat was instead fought and won by the former MP and famed diarist Alan Clark, making a return to Parliament having grown bored of retirement. He died two years later and the subsequent by-election returned Michael Portillo who spent a year as Shadow Chancellor before unsuccessfully contesting the Conservative leadership and then stepping down from politics. In 2005 the seat was won by another former minister defeated in 1997, this time the former Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Like Michael Portillo he briefly served in the shadow cabinet, stood for the leadership of the party, lost, and returned to the backbenches before being forced into retirement after being caught in a newspaper sting.


Current MP
VICTORIA BORWICK (Conservative) Born 1956, London. Kensington and Chelsea councillor. Contested London Assembly list 1999, London Assembly member since 2008. First elected as MP for Kensington in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17595 (50%)
Lab: 8979 (26%)
LDem: 6872 (20%)
UKIP: 754 (2%)
Oth: 950 (3%)
MAJ: 8616 (25%)
2005*
Con: 18144 (58%)
Lab: 5521 (18%)
LDem: 5726 (18%)
GRN: 1342 (4%)
Oth: 603 (2%)
MAJ: 12418 (40%)
2001
Con: 15270 (54%)
Lab: 6499 (23%)
LDem: 4416 (16%)
GRN: 1158 (4%)
Oth: 695 (2%)
MAJ: 8771 (31%)
1997
Con: 19887 (54%)
Lab: 10368 (28%)
LDem: 5668 (15%)
Oth: 1165 (3%)
MAJ: 9519 (26%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Kensington & Chelsea

Demographics
2015 Candidates
VICTORIA BORWICK (Conservative) Born 1956, London. Kensington and Chelsea councillor. Contested London Assembly list 1999, London Assembly member since 2008.
ROB ABOUHARB (Labour) Born Cardiff. University lecturer.
ROBIN MCGHEE (Liberal Democrat) Born Lambeth. Educated at Oxford University.
JACK BOVILL (UKIP)
ROBINA ROSE (Green)
TOBY ABSE (Alliance Green Socialism)
TONY AUGUSTE (CISTA)
ROLAND COURTENAY (New Independent Centralist)
ANDREW KNIGHT (Animal Welfare)
Links
Comments - 827 Responses on “Kensington”
  1. The incredible thing about May’s fixation on hard Brexit is that it isn’t even rubbing off on its target audience. I think on the right there was a bit of May-scepticism even before the general election. Now it’s as obvious to them as it is to anyone else that she’s a complete lame duck.

  2. I doubt May has much core support.

    Lots of it will be people who just don’t want a socialist government and aren’t enthused by the Lib Dems EU enthusiasm.

    Her core vote will be life long Tory loyalists and 2014 onwards UKIP voters. Few of the pre 2014 UKIP voters will enthusiastically back her.

    In a way it’s a shame because lots of people saw her as the right person for the job. However her lack of campaigning ability and/or warmth have been problematic. As well as her judgement…

  3. “…lots of people saw her as the right person for the job.”

    I think it’s more that many people saw her as the not-Andrea-Leadsom person for the job.

    “However her lack of campaigning ability and/or warmth have been problematic.”

    They were problems, sure, but the only reason they were such an issue is that the entire campaign was built upon them, under the misguided belief that these were her strong suits (and Jeremy Corbyn’s weak ones). She essentially ran a Macron-style “make me your god” campaign, but whereas Macron (whatever you think of his politics) is an utter charmer in the flesh, Theresa May is – well quite a boring person to be around, I’d imagine.

  4. Matt W – you’re spot on in paras 1 & 2.

    Although therein lies the problem (para 3).

    McDonnell attacks austerity, overcrowding, the Bedroom Tax and failure to cut the deficit. Is it austerity or the lack of it he’ll attack next time? Either we’ve had too much or too few cuts [yes there’s Trident, neo-liberal blah blah but purely on the rates and thresholds of tax what should he argue?].

    Now clearly I realise there’s a housing shortage in London; but, by definition the reason the SRS/BT is a problem in the North is under-occupancy. Outer council estates in Merseyside & Greater Manchester comprise 96% 3 bed houses. 4,000 properties are vacant/void in Lpool alone. But there’s a shortage of social housing which is 1 bed,2 bed and for OAPs.

    On paper, Labour councils could have solved both problems by moving tenants from the overcrowded London boroughs up North (although I realise family connections and schools are important and I can see why they didn’t do this).

    HH et al – does anyone know why 3 London boroughs sent tenants to Bham & Wolvs? I’m guessing an agreement was reached between the authorities, but why stop at the Midlands, when housing benefit rates are lowest/cheapest in parts of Sheffield, Knowsley, West Lancs. Scotland is presumably even cheaper in parts, although no doubt the SNP would accuse the Tories of sending them London’s poor and/or immigrants, in the same way Boris was accused of supporting ethnic cleansing from inner London boroughs when the first Benefits Cap of £30k pa was introduced.

  5. Lancs
    “It’s not the Tories who need to gain, it’s Labour”

    But Labour are ahead in the polls at the moment albeit only just and not enough to win a majority but enough to be the largest party and form a coalition with the SNP and/or others. You seem to be forgetting that the Tories really did cling on by their fingertips this time, ten less seats and even with Sinn Fein and the Speakers abstentions they wouldn’t be able to form a government. So to address your point Labour seemingly have already taken some Tory voters notwithstanding they clearly must have taken some at the last election as well unless you believe as I do that most of the UKIP vote went to Labour.

    “But it’s good to see you’ve fallen into the same thinking that Barnaby has (that the GE result shows the far Left is suddenly a winning proposition for Govt). It may be but all past evidence doesn’t say so”

    With the greatest respect Lancs that’s very bold coming from you. Before the election you made multiple very condescending comments to me and others (of which I’m happy to quote back to you with the dates and threads you posted them on) about the lefts supposed (un)electability, you were totally adamant that not only would the Tories win a huge landslide (right up until polling day) but also that it was entirely due to how “left wing” Labour had become. For Labour to then make the gains we did proves that Socialism IS electable, you can argue its a millstone but its evidently a millstone that can be overcome, it just wasn’t the voter repellent you were convinced it was. To still maintain your initial assumption in light of the GE result is silly and I honestly don’t believe you actually still think Socialism is an automatic vote loser rather I think you just HOPE it is.

  6. PT – I doubt the public want ‘a charmer’ after Blair & Cameron, especially not with economic woes and times of terrorism. Macron & Merkel both won on record low %s.

    I think Matthew Parris got it right when he said DC was only ever meant to be and only ever wanted to be a PM in good times. “Let sunshine win the day” and all that. He famously complained – in that interview on a train, banging a red box – that the public should appreciate how hard he worked.

    Both were good at the podium outside Number 10, but ‘a charmer’ is all too often just a false PR man. I think the public liked how they looked on the world stage, representing Britain, but I didn’t get genuine warmth from either of them or how they reacted to various colleagues.

    Authentic and tough were judged to be the top attributes by Walden. Very few have both.

  7. Neither Macron nor Merkel are very charming. As one pundit said, Macron’s support was largely because he was inoffensive. Interesting argument about Cameron being the man who fixes the roof when the sun is shining. He’s not the surgeon who brings u bad news thats for sure.

  8. Matt W – I don’t even think DC was prepared for that. ‘Sharing the proceeds of growth’ was the DC/GO mantra when they ascended to Shadow Leader and Shadow Chancellor in I think Nov 2005 having only been MPs a few years.

    Rivers10 – Re “very bold coming from you…” in case you missed it above, I haven’t changed my view on socialist govt being almost impossible.

    I in fact never predicted a landslide at all and certainly not on polling day, which is why I won 11 of the 15 bets I placed on constituency seats. My Tory share prediction of 43% was in fact spot on. I think we in fact all agreed on here in July that no-one expected that Tory % not to result in a majority.

    As I said I tend to agree with Portillo’s analysis primarily as it is at least based on all previous facts. Glad you realise that.

    “for Labour to make the gains we did proves that socialism IS electable” As a Govt clearly it does not.

    That was my very point: you do agree with Barnaby’s analysis. Socialism may well be, but we await to see proof of that. Even far Left Paul Mason – who wants it to happen – concedes that we’ll only know next time, because the prospect of the same will be very real and that’s when they’ll be tested.

    It just wasn’t in June.

  9. Lancs
    I in fact never predicted a landslide at all and certainly not on polling day

    From the Con target seats thread posted on June 6th you said as follows
    “well I haven’t changed my opinion throughout (Con maj 80+)”
    And Lancs that was in your typical nuanced style were you nearly always refrain from sticking your neck out too much, the fact that you were willing to openly predict an 80+ majority taken with your other posts suggests to me the emphasis really needed to be placed on the “+” in your prediction.

    “which is why I won 11 of the 15 bets I placed on constituency seats”
    Utterly meaningless, Plop famously won money overall at the last election on his bets despite calling the overall result utterly wrong. I imagine in your case you won most of your constituency specific bets (probably Tory wins in Southport and Mansfield included amongst them) as well as a bet that had the Tories as the largest party and polling over 40% but the bets you lost were those on the scale of the Tories win/Labs loss. If I had to guess I’d say you probably had a bet that Lab would have less than 200 seats and another one with the Tories on 375+

    “I think we in fact all agreed on here in July that no-one expected that Tory % not to result in a majority”
    Actually Lancs we didn’t, I cant remember what thread it was on but we had a big debate before the election re what effect the respective parties vote shares would mean for the scale of the Con win. You were arguing that so long as the Tories get above 40% they’ll win easily, I totally disagreed with you and pointed out that the Tory % by itself is utterly meaningless, its their LEAD over Lab that counted. The rest is as they say is history.

    “because the prospect of the same will be very real and that’s when they’ll be tested.
    It just wasn’t in June”
    And this is what I find utterly hypocritical. One of the aforementioned condescending comments was one you made to me before the election where you said words to the effect that “the left deserve a chance every once in a while to be utterly rejected” I argued back then that this election had clear overriding factors (Brexit, Labs infighting and Corbyn’s personal unpopularity) that meant it couldn’t be taken as a marker of the popularity of Labs policies, you disagreed with this and maintained that this election was all about (in your words) Labs “Marxist Manifesto” and that the upcoming defeat was entirely due to Labs platform. Now with hindsight showing Lab did better than expected to worm out of that and say that actually the election wasn’t really about Socialism at all and thus its still untested…come on Lancs its slimy as hell and surely you can see that.

  10. I think we’re all pretty much agreed that the two main parties at the moment seem to have a solid 40% each, giving limited scope for either to win a majority.

    However I do wonder what impact the Brexit divorce bill is going to have. I could easily see it turning into a massive ticking timebomb for the government

    – A significant percentage of Leavers think we should pay nothing at all, so they will be livid at the idea of coughing up €100bn gross / €50bn net

    – Many Remainers will understandably think it ridiculous to pay such a high fee when we could get much more for much less by remaining a member of the EU or EEA
    (though most myself included will support this deal over No Deal)

    It all depends on how things progress from here….if we get a good trade deal and ongoing payments on top of the divorce bill are minimal, people may accept it as value for money.

    But if we end up with a poor deal having committed to the divorce payment, and/or if significant annual subscriptions are requested on top of the lump sum, it could easily be the trigger which breaks the current stalemate.

  11. “HH et al – does anyone know why 3 London boroughs sent tenants to Bham & Wolvs? I’m guessing an agreement was reached between the authorities, but why stop at the Midlands, when housing benefit rates are lowest/cheapest in parts of Sheffield, Knowsley, West Lancs. Scotland is presumably even cheaper in parts”

    These families will disproportionately be of ethnic origin and one factor may well have been to place them where their own communities are large.

    Also presumably the council accepts some degree of balance between cost and distance from London. Though if we believe “I Daniel Blake” then London boroughs have sent people as far north as Newcastle.

  12. Rivers10 – “nuanced.” Er thanks. It’s certainly a new ‘insult’ to add to the long list. On here, I have variously being accused of being a: “a Trump supporter”, “Ian Paisley”, “Simon Danczuk”, “a far left anti-business neanderthal”, “a paed*phile hunter”, “a nasty working class Tory” and a “defender of fas*ists” as well as some defamatory statements from another poster.

    You of course failed – as Owen Jones did – to both recognise the problem and to respond to it.

    If I wasn’t clear: by facts, I meant actual General Election results – you know the last three Labour has lost – and not polls, not that I do accept Labour are ahead. The two main Parties are level, as most agree on.

    So where are all of these extra – yes, glad you do at least conceded that fact – Labour voters going to come from in 2022?

    If the swing from Labour to Tory that’s occurred amongst working class voters in 2015 and 2017 continues, that gains the Tories a further dozen seats.

    Quite apart from the fact that the Remain Con>LD/Lab swing may well have been a ‘one off’ event, even if it’s repeated that doesn’t gain you any seats at all. There’d have to be further squeezing of either the far left Green other vote (if there’s any left), or gaining more middle class liberal Tory Remainers.

    Do you really think Jezza can gain Altrincham, whilst pledging to scrap all of it’s grammar schools?

    Remember, a majority of 1,500 can be much safer than some of a mere 300.

    And no, I would never regard Rudd as a replacement as solving the problem. That would potentially lose the extra 2 million votes May added and repeat the mistakes of the DC/GO years of 2006-2013. I also note that UKIP’s vote was 5 times that of her 300 majority, so she could well lose next time.

    Nice try, btw – but my only two overall seat predictions on this site were actually, “a Cons majority of 30-40” and a “Con maj of 80” [which I repeated above.] Nowhere did I ever predict either “a landslide” by using that phrase, or by claiming a majority of over 100 (the usual meaning of landslide in the UK), or anything like 1983’s which was a landslide.

    I won all of my specific prediction bets (a Tory Win, 6+ Scottish Tory seats, LDs < 10 and one other so the only one you have correctly guessed was my 40%+ Con share).

    As I said, I also won 11 of the 15 my constituency bets, including Lab in Wirral West (which I in fact mentioned even before you went to the seat to help). Yes, I did also successfully bet on a Tory gain in Southport. That was ridiculed on here by three posters, including by a LD in that seat several times even on Polling Day itself. I only wish I had bet on Mansfield when Ben Bradley was huge odds.

    I also stand by that point – if the Tories had won 44%+ they would have a working majority (based on the 'tipping point' that Prof Curtice referred to at the time, which you resolutely refused to accept). In fact most re-runs of even the last 42.5% v 39.9% GE result produce an overall majority. That's how unlucky they were.

  13. “And no, I would never regard Rudd as a replacement as solving the problem. That would potentially lose the extra 2 million votes May added and repeat the mistakes of the DC/GO years of 2006-2013. I also note that UKIP’s vote was 5 times that of her 300 majority, so she could well lose next time.”

    I shall repeat the comment I made in Another Place a few months ago.

    Anybody who thought it was a good idea to marry AA Gill does not have good enough judgement to be Prime Minister.

    I have to say that though she is from my side of the Tory party there’s something I really can’t stand about Rudd. I really don’t think she has a hope of getting the leadership.

  14. HH – thanks.

    A Ch4 docu did show a London borough (I think it was Haringey – it had a lot of new ethnic minority claimants and a fair few racist WWC ones) offering one way train tickets ‘up North’ ie they had to accept it there and then rather than view it as would be the norm, although the only ones I saw accept went to Wolvs and Brum.

    Ah, IDB. There was a very brave lady who has worked in welfare rights as an advisor for years and she gave a great critique of that film. Essentially saying that Ken Loach had produced a paint-by-numbers romantic view of all claimants, when in fact may were deserving but some were not or even worse and his take on the DWP was almost as bad as George Osborne’s.

    In brief, her frustrations were largely caused by failures of the State: IT systems, the DWP losing correspondence or failing to respond to emails or calls, inept council depts. stopping housing benefit, claimants not turning up or lying and so on. None of which was highlighted as the problem (and I’d also note that the far Left PCS union’s Serwotka is mates with Loach, so it’s hardly surprising staff in Jobcentres didn’t get the blame when a claimant had to go to a food bank due to their error or omission).

  15. Yes, it was a good film with no doubt some important grains of truth, but you can’t expect Loach’s work to be objective or unromanticised. Happily, I know much more about growing up in a working mining village than surviving on benefits, so I can critique Kes much more knowledgably than I Daniel Blake, and I have to say it’s pretty similar to the comments you make. Nostalgic grains of truth but simplistic and glossing over unhelpful facts.

  16. I do wonder what sort of films Ken Loach will make when Jeremy Corbyn is Prime Minister?

  17. I don’t think we’ll have to wait that much longer to find out, tbh.

  18. and working with disabled people on ESA & PIPs I probably have a better understanding of I Daniel Blake than Kes

  19. Jeremy Hardy, Mark Steele and their fellow travellers also wouldn’t have much point any longer. As a political comedian/satirist you are supposed to tweak the nose of the powerful – so what do you do when you live and breathe the ideals of the most powerful man in the country?

  20. “and working with disabled people on ESA & PIPs I probably have a better understanding of I Daniel Blake than Kes”

    What’s your view of it?

  21. “I don’t think we’ll have to wait that much longer to find out, tbh.”

    That depends on whether middle England’s support for the Tories starts to break up. No sign of that at present, though various factors could precipitate it, not least the Brexit divorce bill as I post upthread.

    Nevertheless I remain sceptical that the UK will, in the end, be prepared to elect Prime Minister Corbyn.

  22. Lancs
    With the greatest possible respect I can’t be bothered arguing, your set in your ways and that’s fine ultimately it doesn’t matter how you choose to analyse the last election I happen to believe you are looking at it (and the current political landscape) in a very blinkered way and I certainly can’t do anything about your refusal to act with any humility whatsover re your past predictions (landslide or not its just semantics point is you were adamant on a big Tory win and it didn’t happen)

    All I’d say Lancs is that you have regularly accused me of having a rose tinted view of things, maybe I do maybe I don’t but ultimately (with the notable exception of the 2015 election) I’ve been right more than I’ve been wrong. I’d just implore you to possibly humour the thought that its perhaps you that is looking at things the wrong way

  23. In the last year many people I’ve worked have experienced the realities of I Daniel Blake. Some are more fortunate than Daniel Blake but the inequity in the treatment of those in reciept of ESA & PIPs or the reduced rate they are on now is so large its sometimes hard to draw a comparison. I’ve spoken to so many staff at the jobcentre who are frankly doing a thankless job. They are kind and understanding but are given quotas and expected to meet them. I’ve met whistleblowers who found it got too much. I’ve met these assessors whose job seems to be making round pegs fit in suare holes.

  24. Rivers10 – I meant to add: of course even if I were to accept your claim that Labour were 1% ahead that still wouldn’t lead to a Labour win.

    Indeed, Britain Elects in their model 3 months ago (26.08.17), did precisely that and their headline was: Tories would still be the largest Party if an election were held today.

    I suspect most on here missed it as it was holiday season.

    Yes, Labour gained seats again; but, so did the Tories (Perth, Barrow).

    In fact I thought I had been. If you wanted sarcastic humility I could well have said – No need to congratulate me on being spot on with my 43% Cons vote share prediction 😉

    ‘Right more than you’ve been wrong?’ Really?!

    2015 GE X
    EU Ref X
    2017 GE X

    Are you really claiming you were right just because the Party you’re a member of did better than anyone expected in 2017? Even Labour MPs on the Left don’t claim they predicted it. Although I realise in hindsight they’re using it to justify stances they’ve long held.

    I realise it may be unfair because of your age they’ve been the only national votes you’ve campaigned in and all were unpredictable, but again they are the only facts we have to go on.

  25. Lancs
    “Indeed, Britain Elects in their model 3 months ago (26.08.17), did precisely that and their headline was: Tories would still be the largest Party if an election were held today”

    Yes but in that in that scenario the Tories would be locked out of power and we’d be looking at a Corbyn coalition.

    “Yes, Labour gained seats again; but, so did the Tories (Perth, Barrow)”

    Excluding the fact that the Tories didn’t gain either of those seats you are once again playing silly semantic games, yes the Tories gained some seats but they had an overall net loss, you know full well that’s what I meant and you also know full well that’s ultimately all that matters as does everyone else here so why your engaging in these semantically games I don’t know.

    “In fact I thought I had been. If you wanted sarcastic humility I could well have said – No need to congratulate me on being spot on with my 43% Cons vote share prediction”

    And what did you predict Labour would get? Sub 30 percent?

    “Right more than you’ve been wrong?’ Really?!”
    Actually I was totally on the fence on the EU ref in the final days and didn’t know what way it would go all I predicted was that Liverpool would easily vote Remain. In fact I actually said it would be Remain 60% on an even day thus given Leave won 52/48 and Liverpool actually went Remain 58% I called it perfectly, as I recall you were predicting that Leave might win Liverpool.
    As for 2017 I did ultimately expect the Tories would increase their majority I was the only person to consistently claim Corbyn would outdo expectations.

    “I realise it may be unfair because of your age they’ve been the only national votes you’ve campaigned in and all were unpredictable, but again they are the only facts we have to go on”

    No we have other facts, I called the 2016 and 2017 locals near perfectly, I was one of the few people who said Trump could win the US election (I did admittedly ultimately predict Clinton would squeak it) I called a Lib Dem win in the Richmond by election, I called a Tory win in Copeland, I called a Lab hold in Stoke Central. I also said your predictions about Danczuk in Rochdale were lunacy and I was ultimately right about that as well.

  26. Rivers10 – yes, both Perth & Barrow are listed as Con gains.

    As for your other comments, you see that’s the precise problem with such claims today – I can check.

    Untrue on both what you claim I predicted and what you said in that week in the city.

    You in fact said – as I asked where you were canvassing and campaigning as my former colleague was covering the Referendum Polling Day in your area – it was “super hot” so you didn’t end up doing much, but what you did see in student terraced roads a couple of days before was 80% Remain.

    That was all the more amusing as I’m told the only part of Central ward which was 50:50 were those terraced roads of Kensington Fields (presumably as students had gone home a coupe of months earlier and the WWC OAPs there voted Leave).

    I was ridiculed by HH for my claim that it was close in Merseyside overall – although again for accuracy I’ll repeat what I said at the time (that Labour & LDs were being complacent indeed by ignoring North Liverpool, Knowsley etc as our vox pops showed overwhelming Leave support here, but that it’s no surprise the S Lpool suburbs support Remain. I also pointed out that the reason for the lack of a visible campaign appeared to be because the local Britain Stronger In (BSE) was run by the LDs who hate local Labour cllrs with vigour, whereas there was cross Party leafleting being carried out by Liberals/UKIP/Tory and even a few LDs).

    In the event, Knowsley and North Liverpool voted Leave and the southern suburbs and city centre voted Remain.

    Glad to see you admit you were wrong about the only national polls by ignoring the point entirely!

  27. Lancs
    “yes, both Perth & Barrow are listed as Con gains”

    Are you seriously claiming the Tories gained those seats at the last election? If so you’re in for a horrible surprise…

    “Untrue on both what you claim I predicted and what you said in that week in the city”

    Liverpool West Derby thread posted by me on April 11th…
    “from what I can tell Remain will win very comfortably in Liverpool. Liverpool’s students and middle classes seem to be breaking almost entirely for remain and with lower turnout in the estates I’d put remain on 60% plus on an EVEN day”

    On the very same page you happened to agree with a prediction by Andy JS that Remain would only win “very narrowly” though you also caveated it with multiple posts stating that turnout could sway things indicating you thought it was seriously possible Leave could win in Liverpool.

    “In the event, Knowsley and North Liverpool voted Leave”

    I know many people in the Walton CLP and West Derby CLP’s. Our sample returns from the actual count showed that West Derby (constituency) narrowly voted Remain, Norris Green was the most Pro Leave we estimated it to be about 53% Leave while West Derby (ward) was actually over 60% Remain Walton on the other hand was only a very narrow Leave win with County being the most pro Leave at 55% while Fazarkley actually went for Remain by 53% Hardly “overwhelming support for Leave”

    “Glad to see you admit you were wrong about the only national polls by ignoring the point entirely!”

    I don’t even know how to respond to that.

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