Kenilworth & Southam

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28474 (58.4%)
Labour: 7472 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 4913 (10.1%)
Green: 1956 (4%)
UKIP: 5467 (11.2%)
Loony: 370 (0.8%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (43%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Part of Stratford-on-Avon council area, part of Warwick council area, part of Rugby council area.

Main population centres: Kenilworth, Southam, Wellesbourne, Dunchurch.

Profile: Kenilworth and Southam is a large curved seat taking in the rural commuter villages that lie between Rugby, Warwick and Coventry, including rural parts of Rugby, Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon council. The largest town in in constituency is Kenilworth, best known for its castle but now largely a suburban dormitory town. Its partner Southam is a far smaller town and the rest of the constituency is made up of semi-rural middle class villages. The North of the constituency includes the former Peugeot car plant at Ryton which ceased production at the end of 2006 and is now being redeveloped. Coventry airport also falls within the constituency boundaries, and aircraft noise is an issue in some of the villages to the North.

Politics: The seat was created for the 2010 election and was easily won by the Conservatives.

Current MP
JEREMY WRIGHT (Conservative) Born 1972, Taunton. Educated at Taunton School and Exeter University. Former barrister, specialising in criminal law. First elected as MP for Rugby & Kenilworth in 2005. Undersecretary of State for Justice 2012-2014. Attorney General since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 25945 (54%)
Lab: 6949 (14%)
LDem: 13393 (28%)
UKIP: 1214 (3%)
Oth: 930 (2%)
MAJ: 12552 (26%)

2015 Candidates
JEREMY WRIGHT (Conservative) See above.
RICHARD DICKSON (Liberal Democrat)
JON FOSTER-SMITH (Digital Democracy)
Comments - No Responses on “Kenilworth & Southam”
  1. Tory hold in Southam- similar lead to 2005 (which was 40-35 Tory over Labour). This time it was 34-29. An independent took 27%.

  2. Jeremy Wright == Attorney General

  3. I wonder whether the LD vote will collapse here.
    Of course in 2010 it was Labour that did.

  4. I don’t think Labour ever had very much in the way of likely votes here.
    Its been drawn in such a way as to bring together largely non-Labour areas
    Only Southam is competitive.

  5. That’s right, and the fact that the Tories are still likely to win both Rugby and Warwick & Leamington in 2015 despite the corralling of so many Tory voters into this seat will be a source of great frustration for Labour.

  6. I can see Labour and the Lib Dems swapping places here next year. Something like this perhaps-
    Wright (Conservative)- 51%
    Labour- 21%
    Liberal Democrat- 15%
    UKIP- 12%
    Green- 1.0%

  7. The Results- a good prediction though I now doubt if Labour will quite reach 20%.

    Needless to say, UKIP ought not be a factor here. Nearly 43% of residents are managers, administrators or professionals, which is way above average.

  8. I think UKIP will be a factor here because HS2 will cut the constituency in half and UKIP want to scrap it.

  9. Conservative Hold. 16,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  10. Safest Conservative seat in the West Midlands. Shaun may not be far off here, although 16,000 looks slightly over the top.

  11. A huge 21,000 majority for Mr Wright here.

    According to the Boundary Assistant website (which I thoroughly recommend) the constituency’s electorate has increased from 64,362 to 72,670, a remarkable leap. I have visions of lots of new build executive housing on the edges of villages but was wondering if anyone had local knowledge.

  12. There was an equally remarkable plunge in the electorate at the 2010 election.

    This is therefore to do with the registration system of Warwick DC rather than demographics. They simply chose to purge their register just before the 2010 election. Now things are back to normal.

  13. I see- thanks for clearing that up, John.

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