Kenilworth & Southam

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28474 (58.4%)
Labour: 7472 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 4913 (10.1%)
Green: 1956 (4%)
UKIP: 5467 (11.2%)
Loony: 370 (0.8%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (43%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Part of Stratford-on-Avon council area, part of Warwick council area, part of Rugby council area.

Main population centres: Kenilworth, Southam, Wellesbourne, Dunchurch.

Profile: Kenilworth and Southam is a large curved seat taking in the rural commuter villages that lie between Rugby, Warwick and Coventry, including rural parts of Rugby, Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon council. The largest town in in constituency is Kenilworth, best known for its castle but now largely a suburban dormitory town. Its partner Southam is a far smaller town and the rest of the constituency is made up of semi-rural middle class villages. The North of the constituency includes the former Peugeot car plant at Ryton which ceased production at the end of 2006 and is now being redeveloped. Coventry airport also falls within the constituency boundaries, and aircraft noise is an issue in some of the villages to the North.

Politics: The seat was created for the 2010 election and was easily won by the Conservatives.

Current MP
JEREMY WRIGHT (Conservative) Born 1972, Taunton. Educated at Taunton School and Exeter University. Former barrister, specialising in criminal law. First elected as MP for Rugby & Kenilworth in 2005. Undersecretary of State for Justice 2012-2014. Attorney General since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 25945 (54%)
Lab: 6949 (14%)
LDem: 13393 (28%)
UKIP: 1214 (3%)
Oth: 930 (2%)
MAJ: 12552 (26%)

2015 Candidates
JEREMY WRIGHT (Conservative) See above.
RICHARD DICKSON (Liberal Democrat)
JON FOSTER-SMITH (Digital Democracy)
Comments - 23 Responses on “Kenilworth & Southam”
  1. Tory hold in Southam- similar lead to 2005 (which was 40-35 Tory over Labour). This time it was 34-29. An independent took 27%.

  2. Jeremy Wright == Attorney General

  3. I wonder whether the LD vote will collapse here.
    Of course in 2010 it was Labour that did.

  4. I don’t think Labour ever had very much in the way of likely votes here.
    Its been drawn in such a way as to bring together largely non-Labour areas
    Only Southam is competitive.

  5. That’s right, and the fact that the Tories are still likely to win both Rugby and Warwick & Leamington in 2015 despite the corralling of so many Tory voters into this seat will be a source of great frustration for Labour.

  6. I can see Labour and the Lib Dems swapping places here next year. Something like this perhaps-
    Wright (Conservative)- 51%
    Labour- 21%
    Liberal Democrat- 15%
    UKIP- 12%
    Green- 1.0%

  7. The Results- a good prediction though I now doubt if Labour will quite reach 20%.

    Needless to say, UKIP ought not be a factor here. Nearly 43% of residents are managers, administrators or professionals, which is way above average.

  8. I think UKIP will be a factor here because HS2 will cut the constituency in half and UKIP want to scrap it.

  9. Conservative Hold. 16,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  10. Safest Conservative seat in the West Midlands. Shaun may not be far off here, although 16,000 looks slightly over the top.

  11. A huge 21,000 majority for Mr Wright here.

    According to the Boundary Assistant website (which I thoroughly recommend) the constituency’s electorate has increased from 64,362 to 72,670, a remarkable leap. I have visions of lots of new build executive housing on the edges of villages but was wondering if anyone had local knowledge.

  12. There was an equally remarkable plunge in the electorate at the 2010 election.

    This is therefore to do with the registration system of Warwick DC rather than demographics. They simply chose to purge their register just before the 2010 election. Now things are back to normal.

  13. I see- thanks for clearing that up, John.

  14. Posting here because he is the Culture Secretary.
    The Porn block – twice cancelled – is now set to go ahead on July 15th. I really do wonder if we not looking at the next scandal once something is hacked and lists of users appear or thousands of people get the bank details accessed due to all the scams IT experts expect to appear to make people that is the legitimate way to get the ID.
    And it will be more middle aged people affected because the better understanding of tech people have will avoid it.

  15. I can’t think of the last piece of legislation a government introduced that literally nobody outside that government was willing to defend. But between May’s neither-her-nor-there Brexit deal and now this, the current administration is beginning to make a habit out of it.

  16. Yes because under 18’s will be the group that know the best how to avoid and get round it.

  17. “I really do wonder if we not looking at the next scandal once something is hacked and lists of users appear or thousands of people get the bank details accessed …(BLAH BLAH)…. And it will be more middle aged people affected because the better understanding of tech people have will avoid it.”

    Unless they are serious porn addicts and/or knowledgeable about VPN many “middle aged people” will just stop looking at online porn. Which is probably a good thing, though I oppose this legislation on civil liberties grounds and it won’t do much to stop the determined teenagers. I don’t see anyone with half a brain sharing their credit card details or buying a seedy porn pass from the newsagents, not after so many data leak scandals.

    This might really kick the Tories in the ballot box though among one of their key remaining demographics (older men).

  18. I doubt many will buy a pass but I suspect a lot of people will submit their card details or otherwise provide Id.

  19. Only fools will submit their card details.

    Sale of porn passes could revitalise the seedy old fashioned Soho sex shops I remember from my teenagehood. It will be less embarrassing to buy them there than at WH Smiths.

  20. Yes fools…

  21. Yes, you’d have to be a fool to give away credit card details like that, but a moment’s contemplation of recent British electoral history should remind you just how many fools there are on these islands…

  22. There will however be a rash of submission of other peoples’ card details. It won’t be possible to know that someone has used your card unless they stupidly also try to buy something from it. There will be a roaring demand for bent shop assistants and waiters to copy card details. I think the legislation may well be a big disaster.

  23. HH – interestingly (and unusually) there was an article on such shops. Apparently numbers have actually increased in the North West.

    Contrary to bookies – which some politicians seem to hate – whose numbers have actually halved on the high street since the 1970s.

    As with both addiction will be online.

    There was a docu covering bingo and gambling in Britain since the 1960s and it showed that a loophole in the law caused the explosion in seaside resorts.

    Rank then converted old cinema houses into smoke-filled bingo halls with 14 million members.

    National newspapers then hurt the business with their free bingo and so the industry lobbied Hurd and he allowed them to link up and create ‘the national’ game with prizes of 100k+ in the 1980s.

    The smoking ban then resulted in 80% closing. The docu also revealed that RC parochial clubs used bingo to pay for the Metropolitan Cathedral in Liverpool. But a decade ago the church banned bingo and so most clubs have since closed.

    It showed the decline of communal working class activity and how MPs looked down on WWC pursuits, including prejudice against women attending bingo and supposedly “wasting the housekeeping money and kids outside bingo halls looking for their mother.”

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