Islington North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8465 (17.2%)
Labour: 29659 (60.2%)
Lib Dem: 3984 (8.1%)
Green: 5043 (10.2%)
UKIP: 1971 (4%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 21194 (43%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Islington council area.

Main population centres: Tufnell Park, Archway, Finsbury Park, Highbury.

Profile: A compact, densely-populated inner-city seat in North London, the smallest in the country by area. While there is some gentrification this this seat covers some of the most deprived, troubled and crime-ridden parts of Islington, inclusing the huge Andover Estate. It includes HMP Holloway and Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium. Islington is a particular young area, and has the highest proportion of unmarried people in the country.

Politics: The constituency has been safely Labour since the 1930s, though the then sitting MP Michael O`Halloran defected to the SDP in 1981 and fought the seat as an independent in 1983, having lost the selection for the SDP nomination.

Current MP
JEREMY CORBYN (Labour) Born 1949, Chippenham. Educated at Adam`s Grammar School and North London Polytechnic. Former trade union organiser. Haringey councillor 1974-1983. First elected as MP for Islington North in 1983. Leader of the Labour Party since 2015. Jeremy Corbyn spent over thirty years on Labour`s backbenches, a stalwart member of the left-wing Campaign Group and Labour`s most rebellious MP. In the 2015 he was the left`s sacrificial candidate for the Labour leadership, reportedly because it was his turn. In the event he was not just competitive in the contest, but won a landslide victory.
Past Results
Con: 6339 (14%)
Lab: 24276 (54%)
LDem: 11875 (27%)
GRN: 1348 (3%)
Oth: 716 (2%)
MAJ: 12401 (28%)
Con: 3740 (12%)
Lab: 16118 (51%)
LDem: 9402 (30%)
GRN: 2234 (7%)
MAJ: 6716 (21%)
Con: 3249 (11%)
Lab: 18699 (62%)
LDem: 5741 (19%)
GRN: 1876 (6%)
Oth: 651 (2%)
MAJ: 12958 (43%)
Con: 4631 (13%)
Lab: 24834 (69%)
LDem: 4879 (14%)
Oth: 1516 (4%)
MAJ: 19955 (56%)

2015 Candidates
ALEX BURGHART (Conservative)
JEREMY CORBYN (Labour) See above.
JULIAN GREGORY (Liberal Democrat)
CAROLINE RUSSELL (Green) Islington councillor.
BILL MARTIN (Socialist Party GB)
Comments - 3,991 Responses on “Islington North”
  1. A Survation poll came out today with CUKs on 1%

  2. They’ll do much better than that in the Euros I expect

  3. I think the main reason Corbyn wont agree a deal with May is that he is worried about a leadership challenge from Thornberry, Starmer, or Clive Lewis and how that could be very close. .

  4. No. There is not going to be a leadership challenge. Nor will it be from any of them

  5. Surprising to see the climate protestors targeting Corbyn today.

    I encountered them yesterday walking across Oxford Street / Edgware Road / Marble Arch and I have to say I thought it was a bit of a hoot, and very refreshing to see those roads with no traffic on for a change. However they’ve made their point and they need to quit while they are ahead. Disrupting the trains and tubes is a big no no IMO, and it’s time to move the road camps.

    Demographically it was whiter than Tommy Robinson’s rally the other week. Hardly a black or brown face, and nobody recognisably working class. Wall to wall white middle class hippies. That’s why they are certain to fail.

  6. Theyve chained themselves to his home because hes ‘the only hope’ interesting strategy

  7. Unsympathetic as I usually am to Corbyn, targeting politicians at their home address is out of order.

  8. They are basically another PETA, a well-meaning organisation with utterly counterproductive tactics.

    The problem is that by tying their environmental cause to radical leftism, they are signalling that climate change should only be a cause for the radical left. Or perhaps, to be incredibly cynical, it’s actually the other way round – that they are using climate change as a Trojan horse to promote an anarchist agenda.

  9. That seems quite a dismissive attitude to me. This the fourth protest and the governments reaction so far has been to talk them down. Increasingly their actions get more radical to get attention. The government could address this now before it gets out of hand

  10. By comparison to most other developed countries, Britian’s action on climate change has been pretty bloody good, actually. Emissions per capita are at their lowest in this country since the industrial revolution, and falling every year.

    For the government to “address this now” – to meet the campaigners’ demand for zero emissions by 2025 – they would have to ban cars, planes and meat tomorrow. Something tells me that they would prefer to tolerate a little bit of travel disruption for a couple of weeks.

  11. I think the government needs to say they recognise their concerns and I think allowing weeks of unrest is failing their duty to the country. The government have done plenty but even so we are now past the point that we can even reverse the affects of climate change

  12. Of course, more can always be done. But Extinction Rebellion are being fundamentally dishonest about the trade-offs. Zero by 2025 would require more than just (government-enforced) lifestyle changes, we would take the sort of economic hit that would make Brexit look like loose change. And of course, unless we get the rest of the world, including the developing world, to buy into this scheme, then we’d fry anyway, we just be poorer as we did so.

  13. It may push the government to achieve their zero diesel goal in 2040 earlier

  14. Britain’s emissions have fallen largely because we’ve closed so much of our manufacturing industry down. If you include the emissions made overseas to manufacture the stuff we import, our emissions trend certainly isn’t “bloody good”.

    Nevertheless this can only be addressed at a global level and the use of childish ultimatums is counter productive.

  15. HH is spot on with their demographic.

    After all the Green MP has been on their protests. ER often turn up outside full council meetings wearing forensic-style white suits and even gas masks!

  16. As with the 2011 riots and student protests, there must be a big risk of gang elements getting involved and turning things ugly. Giving the police and politicians the excuse they need to get tough and clear the protestors out. I do not buy the view that the police are being incompetently weak, I think they are biding their time.

  17. Maybe – more similar to the Student Protests than the 2011 Riots in it would probably be mostly middle class people being violent.

  18. A ComRes poll of 1,047 voters shows that a majority now think the Labour Party is anti-semitic.

    51% (up from 34% in the previous poll).

    Indeed it’s now the third set of local elections where the issue is hurting Labour in 30 wards in particular.

  19. Latest ComRes poll shows Labour 10 points ahead and the Tories on their lowest share since 2003

  20. Ed Miliband quite often had ten-point leads over the Tories at this point in the 2010-15 cycle, for all the good it did him.

    But I sense this is different. The calamity that has befallen the country is a little more serious than unfairly taxed baked goods or people booing the Chancellor at the Olympics.

  21. Though Cameron never fell as low as 23%

  22. Except of course when he achieved just 23% in 2014.

    Labour are well known for never achieving their poll rating on polling day but in the Euros it’s even worse for them.

    Even in the Blair years under FPTP they underachieved in the Euros (because voting Tory was then the only Eurosceptic option).

  23. “Even in the Blair years under FPTP they underachieved in the Euros (because voting Tory was then the only Eurosceptic option).”

    Pedant alert….Labour never fought a FPTP Euro election under Blair….the 1994 Euros were fought under acting leader Margaret Beckett as the leadership contest to replace Smith hadn’t yet concluded.

    The Tories didn’t run a seriously Eurosceptic campaign until Hague in 1999….who’d have thought that he would be a leading Remain advocate today? Talking of people who tries to use their fake euroscepticism to get votes – Hague wasn’t even very successful at it.

  24. It’s unfair to call Hague a “fake Eurosceptic”. He has stayed relatively consistent in his views as the Overton Window has shifted unrecognisably to the right.

    “Eurosceptic” used to mean just that: sceptical of the EU. Up until relatively recently very few of them actually wanted to leave the EU.

  25. “It’s unfair to call Hague a “fake Eurosceptic”. He has stayed relatively consistent in his views”

    Really? I recall his slogan being ‘In Europe Not Run By Europe’. Which is a stupid slogan in practice, as is more easily visible from where we are today, you are either in or out, unicorn cake and eat it in-betweens are a fallacy and always have been.

    “Up until relatively recently very few of them actually wanted to leave the EU.”

    UKIP won 3 seats in 1999, which may well be better than either CUK or the Lib Dems will manage this time, so there was a groundswell of support building even that far back. Very few MPs supported Leaving the EU until relatively recently (though still they are only a minority) but in some polls through the 70s 80s and 90s the public said they would prefer to Leave than to stay.

  26. Further to your points, i think there are many politicians over the years who have adopted Euroscepticism as a vote-winner, against their consciences. Spurred on by the tabloids, they and the voters have mutually reinforced each other as they have pushed to ever more extreme positions, and now it’s all blowing up in their faces. Unfortunately there is a hell of a lot of collateral damage.

  27. Yes, especially on the Tory side, albeit even Blair and Brown also played the “standing up to Brussels” card from time to time.

    In retrospect the Eurosceptic snowball which began in around 1988 with the Bruges speech and Up Yours Delors was only ever going to end like this given that successive Prime Ministers and party leaders were happy to pay lip service to Euroscepticism for votes. In this respect I almost have more respect for Farage et al as at least they properly believe in leaving.

  28. ‘Further to your points, i think there are many politicians over the years who have adopted Euroscepticism as a vote-winner, against their consciences’

    A classic example being Jeremy Hunt – a man willing to inflict the damage a No Deal will cause – which he knows about full well – just to boast his chances of becoming Tory leader

    Surely that’s more sinister, dangerous and downright wicked than anything Farage has ever done

  29. Quite. To paraphrase Tony Benn, Jeremy Hunt is a weathervane, Nigel Farage is a signpost. He would certainly have had more respect for the latter.

  30. HH: you’re correct re 1994 – Blair hadn’t quite become leader but campaigned – but it was that year I was thinking of in that the Tories won 20 seats contrary to all expectations. [The UUP was part of the Tory group]

    It was a Eurosceptic campaign (for the time). In fact I think the in not run by phrase was used by Major before Hague.

    But my point was more that Labour have always underperformed their poll rating – more so – in EU elections and Tories have overperformed in these low turnout elections. Hence even Liverpool had a Tory MEP ’til 1984 (and that seat didn’t even include the nicest suburbs) and the Tories notionally won Lpool Garston in 1999. I think Radford even said his anti-EU Liberals ran Labour close in Lpool West Derby that year. So I suppose it was the anti-EU voters who were determined to turnout out, as well as many Lab/LD voters voting Green just in the Euros.

  31. Exactly – whilst i think Farage is profoundly wrong in believing that the UK will thrive outside the EU, I’d never question the conviction in which he held that view

    Hunt on the other hand – for no other reason than self-promotion- is happy to see something inflicted on the UK that he personally thinks will be a disaster

    That makes him a dangerous and disingenuous man unfit to be PM.

    Unfortunately for Hunt, he’s gone about in such a cack-handed way that he’s fooling no one

    Id rather vote for Boris or Ress Mogg over him

  32. European Election.
    Brexit 37%
    LIb Dem-ALDE: 19%
    Labour: 13%
    Greens-G/EFA: 12%
    Con-ECR: 7% (-2)

    Nigel Farage keeps saying Corbyn could be ousted soon. On those figures it is quite possible some action in that department could happen this year.

  33. Cue Owen Jones, Aaron Bastani etc on Twitter as the results come in.

    “Labour have just utterly battered the Tories, we’ve taken nearly twice as many votes as they have. This is a stunning rejection of the neo-liberal status quo, and a clear message that our radical calls for improved bus services and the abolition of private dentistry were heard on the doorstep. #GTTO [[clenched fist emoji]].”

  34. Probably – Jeremy Corbyn did bizarly state Labour is campaigning on local issues.

    I think later this year, post Boris taking office, could be when moves are made.

  35. Will Thursday be the death of YouGov or everyone else

  36. Most polls have similar results now – Brexit Party pushing 40% (With only Fidez in Hungary and the Maltese Labour Party likely to get noticably bigger shares in the enitre EU) while everyone else is under 20%.

  37. YouGov are the only pollster with the Lib Dems in 2nd and the Greens in fourth

  38. It’s now odds-on favourite with Ladbrokes that Labour will only poll 10-20%.

    Likewise 4/5 that Tories will be below 10%.

  39. It’s also odds on that Labour will be 2nd and Tories 4th

  40. Panalbase.
    Remain: 54%
    Leave: 46%

    European and Westminster voting intentions
    Brexit: 30% and 19%
    Labour: 25% and 31%
    Libdem: 15% and 13%
    Tory: 12% and 21%
    Green: 7% and 5%
    Change Uk: 3% and 4%
    UKIP: 3% and 3%

  41. Matt W – untrue, odds-on = below Evens fav.

    But yes Tories are 11/8 to be 4th (or 5th).

    Heaviest odds-on @ 1/4 is for Change-UK to be < 5%.


    Sports spread as of four hours ago. Labour second. Tories fourth

  43. Yes, as I said.

    I was merely pointing out that they weren’t “odds-on”, as you claimed.

  44. I could be wrong but odds on means favourite which sport spread have made Labour for 2nd and Tories for fourth

  45. No, odds-on means less than Evens.

    Ladbrokes Politics:

    Brexit Party to Win are 1/100 and to poll 30-40% are 1/2 (both are odds-on)

    Cons 4th 11/10 (fav but not odds-on)

    LDs 15-20% 11/10 (“)

    Labour 10-20% Evens fav

    Change-UK < 5% is 1/4

    Tommy Robinson is now 6/4 (down from 3/1 a week ago).

  46. Ah well thank you

  47. Labour lose Islington to the Lib Dems.

    Most of those votes will return to Labour at a general election – but a significant fraction won’t.

  48. Emily Thornberry may well be challenging Jermy Corbyn (or another corbynite if he retires) for the Labour leadership quite soon.

  49. Thornberry sounded pretty pissed off on the BBC earlier. I did agree with her analysis, incidentally.

  50. She is talking from the remain Labour perspective. Her approach would have stooped Labour losess in much of the North east for example.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)