Islington North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8465 (17.2%)
Labour: 29659 (60.2%)
Lib Dem: 3984 (8.1%)
Green: 5043 (10.2%)
UKIP: 1971 (4%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 21194 (43%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Islington council area.

Main population centres: Tufnell Park, Archway, Finsbury Park, Highbury.

Profile: A compact, densely-populated inner-city seat in North London, the smallest in the country by area. While there is some gentrification this this seat covers some of the most deprived, troubled and crime-ridden parts of Islington, inclusing the huge Andover Estate. It includes HMP Holloway and Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium. Islington is a particular young area, and has the highest proportion of unmarried people in the country.

Politics: The constituency has been safely Labour since the 1930s, though the then sitting MP Michael O`Halloran defected to the SDP in 1981 and fought the seat as an independent in 1983, having lost the selection for the SDP nomination.

Current MP
JEREMY CORBYN (Labour) Born 1949, Chippenham. Educated at Adam`s Grammar School and North London Polytechnic. Former trade union organiser. Haringey councillor 1974-1983. First elected as MP for Islington North in 1983. Leader of the Labour Party since 2015. Jeremy Corbyn spent over thirty years on Labour`s backbenches, a stalwart member of the left-wing Campaign Group and Labour`s most rebellious MP. In the 2015 he was the left`s sacrificial candidate for the Labour leadership, reportedly because it was his turn. In the event he was not just competitive in the contest, but won a landslide victory.
Past Results
Con: 6339 (14%)
Lab: 24276 (54%)
LDem: 11875 (27%)
GRN: 1348 (3%)
Oth: 716 (2%)
MAJ: 12401 (28%)
Con: 3740 (12%)
Lab: 16118 (51%)
LDem: 9402 (30%)
GRN: 2234 (7%)
MAJ: 6716 (21%)
Con: 3249 (11%)
Lab: 18699 (62%)
LDem: 5741 (19%)
GRN: 1876 (6%)
Oth: 651 (2%)
MAJ: 12958 (43%)
Con: 4631 (13%)
Lab: 24834 (69%)
LDem: 4879 (14%)
Oth: 1516 (4%)
MAJ: 19955 (56%)

2015 Candidates
ALEX BURGHART (Conservative)
JEREMY CORBYN (Labour) See above.
JULIAN GREGORY (Liberal Democrat)
CAROLINE RUSSELL (Green) Islington councillor.
BILL MARTIN (Socialist Party GB)
Comments - 3,955 Responses on “Islington North”
  1. To be honest, the time to form a “new centrist party” was when Labour was fifteen points behind and moderates seemingly had nothing to lose.

  2. Interesting thoughts here on whether Labour is on track to win the next general election:

  3. Interesting. Thanks. I actually agree with most of the positive and negative points.

  4. Quite a good analysis there

  5. 5 or 6 Labour MPsleaving today at 10.15am.

    My guess is:
    Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Luciana Berger, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, J Ryan.

  6. And all but Joan Ryan (they are reasons why I didn’t expect her to go) plus Ann Coffey and Gavin Shukar have quit.

  7. New You Gov poll –
    Torries 38
    Labour 26
    TIG 14.

    An election this year looks likely – and in my view might bring the Tories the majority they expected in 2017.

  8. Holy moly.

    I must say, I expected TIG to eat into the Tory vote as well as the Labour one. So far it seems like that isn’t happening.

    It remains to be seen whether today’s defections bring some Tories with them. I hope they do. Im already working on convincing my lifelong Tory-voting (but ardently pro-EU) father.

  9. Headline intentions: Con 41 Lab 33 LD 7

    So the 14% voting TIG is made up of:
    3% Tories
    7% Labour
    3% Lib Dem

  10. I wonder if my Tory voting Uncle, who attend the People’s Vote march, will be tempted by TIG ( he lives in a remain voting seat of senior cabinet minster).

  11. Corbyn has said Begum has the right to return “because she was born in Britain.”

    Quite apart from 76% disagreeing with his position, his belief just isn’t true either.

    Nationality isn’t based on accident of birth – otherwise you could deliberately go on holiday somewhere when 6 months pregnant and stay there ’til you give birth and expect both to remain forever.

    It’s rare but people born here are deported every year, as foreign Nationals don’t have the right of abode – merely leave to remain (which can be revoked).

  12. Very few adults born in the UK are deported because even if you not born British you tend become eligible for citizenship before you 18 if you have continued to reside in the UK. Mostly those linked to terrorism or serious crimes who get their citizenship revoked make up those figures.

  13. That genuinely happened to my ex girlfriend her mum’s family are all Welsh but she’s the only one born in England because her mun had forgotten something and turned back.

    my friends grandmother was born in India because her father was based out there and my fiancees mother was born in the Yemen for the same reason

  14. I completely disagree with him on this (and on many things, frankly), but he is at least daring to voice his sincerely held opinion which he knows will be unpopular. Interestingly, JRM said pretty much the same thing in response to.this issue.

    It’s ok for Bob in Southend to simply.say ‘leave her to rot’, but senior politicians should be aiming for something a little more nuanced.

  15. I think there is genuine concerns around the Home Sec ability to just revoke someone’s citizenship. This is a pretty exceptional case where very few people are sympathetic toward someone that has shown no remorse or regret for joining Daesh. But there is a number of people mostly liberals rather than on the left that do worry that this could set a precedent in the future for people who aren’t unapologetic sympathisers for the Islamic State

  16. Completely understand and agree. There are actually more grey areas in this one than one might at first think. Additionally, potentially just lumbering Bangladesh (one of the poorest countries in the world) with this ‘problem’ is not something that sits well with me.

  17. The new focus is councilor resignations. Around 50 have/will resign today and over the weekend.
    They are also rumors of a big defection (I take that as Big in terms of Big name rather than big amount) over the weekend,

  18. Around 350 Labour Councillors are close to quitting the party.

  19. Don’t take this tge wrong was BM11 but no cllrs resigned yesterday so I’m going to take this with a pinch if salt

  20. Yes some serving Councillors did resign yesterday including the former leader of Brighton and Hove Council. And further ones have resigned today.

  21. There are approximately 18,100 elected local govt representat ices in the UK

  22. Warren Morgan announced his resigniation resigned weeks ago and the other Brighton cllr resign on Wednesday not yesterday. Council Data UK which follow the activity of cllrs and hasnt announced any thing since tge 14th. I understand 1 cllrs in North Lincs defected to the Lib Dems. If you have any links citing any other defections please send it

  23. At least two councilors today, one in Barnet and one in Derby have resigned and will sit as independent Councillors (but will probably join TIG in time).

  24. Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG): CON: 40% LAB: 32% UKIP: 7% TIG: 6% LDEM: 5% via @OpiniumResearch, 20 – 22 Feb

  25. Labour leadership has come out for a so called people’s vote.

    Unclear what format it might take and if it will actually pass the HoC though.

  26. Should pass with ease IMO if May is forced to accept this course of action. It’s the only logical conclusion of the mooted long A50 extension. “Format” would presumably have to include Remain and No Deal options in addition to May’s deal. Perhaps using AV or two rounds of voting.

    Corbyn/Labour being in such a mess gives May a bit of desperately needed space.

  27. A three way refrendum would be mad. And split the tories into 3 fairly large camps with there still being some promiment people backing remain, the whip being May’s deal and then No deal backers.

  28. Thornberry seemed to imply.on Channel 4 News that a second referendum should only be between May’s Deal and Remain. There’s not a hope in hell of that actually happening, but a three part referendum is problematic too as BM11 said.

  29. It’s about a year too late, but I’m glad it’s finally happened.

  30. HH – passing a motion is one thing (not that I agree it would easily pass, given the numbers on previous posts).

    Legislation is another, quite apart from the 6 month+ Electoral Commission timetable after that.

    Only Corbyn could come out in favour of anything days before we leave. It’s amusing if nothing else, not least because those most in favour have just left Labour.

  31. On reflection, the cynic in me wonders whether Corbyn hasn’t deliberately left this too late, so he can say “look, I tried” even though he really hasn’t. That would be very on-brand for him.

  32. I’m not keen on a second referendum but if the cooper-boles amendment mark 2 passes, which it looks like it might, what are we going to do with time. There’s no time for a deal that MPs will vote for so a 2nd ref seems inevitable now

  33. There’s time for a deal but not for a 2nd Ref (not that I think one would be voted for in the House).

  34. Here is the total for cllrs defecting in the last 2 weeks

  35. Are Brutus and Cassius moving in on JC?

    It’s difficult for me to see Corbyn hanging on past Wimbledon this year.

  36. Who is Brutus and who is Cassius in this Cesar analogy

  37. Slim Tom and Red Len?

  38. Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG): CON: 36% (-2) LAB: 34% (-3) LDEM: 8% (-2) TIG: 8% (+8) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 3% (-) via @ComRes

  39. Corbyn walked out of cross party talks because The Independent Group were there.

  40. It was arguably a stunt by Umunna. Margaret Beckett was defending Corbyn on that front last night.

  41. If it was a stunt by Umunna then it was doubly so a stunt by Corbyn.

    He’s not *technically* a party leader, but he nonetheless represents eleven parliamentary votes, and those votes very much count in parliamentary divisions.

  42. How would it have been a stunt by Umunna considering he would have had to have been invited by N.10. Caroline Lucas – a party leader with just her in the commons – was also invited.

  43. PT – the 11 don’t count really as all are ardent Remainians.

    Not much point inviting them or the Green as they will always vote the same way.

  44. “PT – the 11 don’t count really as all are ardent Remainians.

    Not much point inviting them or the Green as they will always vote the same way.”

    But that surely applies equally to the Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid Cymru as well.

    Note that TIG have stated they would vote for the deal on the proviso that it is approved in a referendum.

  45. So… quite the eye-catching poll has just dropped:

    Lab: 40
    Con: 31
    LD: 8
    UKIP: 8
    Green: 5

    How much do we feel this passes the sniff test? An outlier or a real shift?

  46. Who conducted the poll.
    Greens are very high for Lab to be at 40.
    Such a poll if it happened would mean a hung parliament but with Labour only 5 short of an absolute majority.

  47. And would see Boris, IDS, Thresa Villers, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Stephen Crabb and Alan Carins be high profile casualties.

  48. Hansbury Strategy. They were commissioned by a right leaning think tank

  49. The broader message from the polls is that Remainers are largely piling up behind Labour despite their careful equivocation on Brexit. After an initial spurt, TIK/CUK are making little impact.

    By contrast Leavers are fragmenting all over the place, collapsing the Tory vote share. Moreover by splitting almost equally between Brexit party and UKIP the hard Leave vote will have much less impact than if they piled in behind a single party.

    On the face of it a very ominous trend for the Tories, though Newport West contradicted it somewhat. The Euros may change things also.

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