I must say I enjoy Jacqui Smith far more than ever on For The Many with Iain Dale

So the new boundary review is out, and Islington North is still being scrapped.

https://order-order.com/2018/09/10/corbyns-constituency-abolished/

The big problem for Corbyn is that most of the neighbouring seats are full of senior Labour frontbenchers, too – Diane Abbott, Emily Thornberry etc.

The whole reduction from 650 to 600 is ridiculous anyway, especially considering that Brexit will mean we’ll suddenly have to start legislating in areas that for decades our parliament couldn’t touch (notably trade). So we’re going to be doing more work with less people.

Because of course, more for less worked out so well when the Tories applied the same principle to health, welfare, policing, prisons, local government…

Meg Hilliers will almost certainly be for the chop if they are reducing the Islington/Hackney seats from 4 to 3

In a parallel universe where Yvette Cooper or Andy Burnham won the 2015 contest, Jeremy Corbyn would probably be giving serious consideration to retirement. As it is – very difficult for Hilliers – any safe seats that come up will be bitterly contested between displaced Labour MPs and upstarts that are most likely considerably more left-wing (and therefore closer to the membership). In terms of the centre of gravity within the PLP, this review definitely helps the Labour left – and you and I probably have contrasting opinions on whether that’s a good thing.

But it’s not just seats that are being abolished. At least if that happens you have the excuse to try and find a seat elsewhere. But some seats are staying but with much less favourable boundaries. For example, Weaver Vale is absorbing a big chunk of the soon-to-be-abolished Tatton – and unless public opinion shifts decisively towards Labour then the new seat is going Tory, with little the incumbent Mike Amesbury can do about it.

He may well do but as someone in very good health in comparison with some of his comrades like McDonnell & Skinner who both have had pretty major surgery in recent years there would probably be a few people further up the line for retirement than Corbyn and like you said a left leaning membership even before the surge in members, coupled with his years as constitency MP in Islington, he’d stand in good sted.

Yes tgere areva few of those. I do wonder if Esther McVey would contest Weaver Vale should her constitency be abolished and how she would go down. There are a few that swing the other way though; Uxbridge, Watford, etc.

PT – not the best examples to cite, as figures and polls both show that more for less did in fact work in local gov’t, crime and welfare.

Indeed, quite apart from those satisfaction levels, council and Jobcentre staff are probably the only groups hated even more tan politicians and estate agents.

They were the last bastions of public sector over manning, yet still managed delay and error on a massive scale. Quite a feat.

As for your substantive claim: it’s also not borne out by the facts. Even on a 3 line whip, on average only 600 vote. On most days, the Commons copes well with only 300-400 in attendance and just 50-80 contributing.

Do you honestly believe that all 650 are needed to legislate?!

Lancs: “…more for less did in fact work in local gov’t, crime and welfare.”

What country are you living in? I’m living in the one with bankrupt local councils and skyrocketing homelessness. Sounds a lot like “less for less” to me.

“Indeed, quite apart from those satisfaction levels, council and Jobcentre staff are probably the only groups hated even more than politicians and estate agents.

Except, of course, Jobcentre staff aren’t bad people, they are just given jobs which require them to be bad. And who gives them those jobs? Oh yes, the government. The low satisfaction levels are not a repudiation of the basic notion of welfare so much as the government’s handling of it.

“Even on a 3 line whip, on average only 600 vote. On most days, the Commons copes well with only 300-400 in attendance and just 50-80 contributing. Do you honestly believe that all 650 are needed to legislate?!”

We only use 10% of our brains at any one time. Therefore I recommend cutting out the wasteful 90%. But, since I adapted my groundbreaking proposal from your very similar reasoning, I think it’s only fair to let you be the guinea pig.

Councils going bankrupt is scary as. Who will provide the statutory services when Northamptonshire is 200% overspending. Somerset are saying they’re having to make heavy cuts to social care. This is peoples lives we’re talking about

I remain sceptical of both Jeremy Corbyn as an individual and the movement around him. That said, items trailed ahead of his big speech are… good. They will certainly be popular.

It’s worth noting that the Daily Mail, Sun arc aren’t featuring the story on their front pages. Presumably they can’t find an angle to attack him from.

His out of step clapping to Children of the Revolution at the end will certainly appear in a future PPB, but not a Labour one.

Incidentally given the apparent youth influx, most were ‘fat and 50’ as one columnist put it. Maybe this is due to unions and CLPs ‘sending’ delegates. But the 10-20% of young people was similar to those at Tory Confs.

Its ironic to hear you say out of step

Matt W – local authorities here legally cannot go bankrupt or set a deficit budget. Indeed their finance officer is sacked if they fail to maintain reserves.

Detroit did of course.

“I remain sceptical of both Jeremy Corbyn as an individual and the movement around him. That said, items trailed ahead of his big speech are… good. They will certainly be popular.

It’s worth noting that the Daily Mail, Sun arc aren’t featuring the story on their front pages. Presumably they can’t find an angle to attack him from.”

Unless Corbyn makes himself a lot less scary to Middle England, I don’t think he has a high chance of becoming Prime Minister. Best he can hope for is head of some kind of minority administration which won’t have the votes to push through a radical agenda.

I agree with the comments about attracting Middle England. In my opinion appearing to want to REMAIN will be a killer for Labour.

But we have to get to a G.E first and the Tories have the numbers to avoid one. There’s a few Remainy Lab MPs possibly who wouldn’t vote against the Government in a crucial vote as well as Lab MPs like Graham Stringer who has said he WILL vote with the Government if they deliver Leave means Leave.

And even much less chance ofc that the Govt will lose a vote of no confidence.

‘In my opinion appearing to want to REMAIN will be a killer for Labour.’

I don’t see how. The movement of travel since the EU referendum has been Remainers shifting over to Labour and Leavers shifting over to the Tories – not in massive numbers but enough to deny Theresa May her majority despite winning seats that the Tories had never held since the war – Stoke South, Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Walsall North etc

Despite being lukewarm towards Remaining in the EU and playing politics with a situation that will have a huge effect on Britain and its economy, Labour have effectively picked up the mantle as the anti-Brexit party and it makes sense that as they lose WWC voters to the Tories and gain middle class ones from the Lib Dems and Remain-inclined Tories, they co,me out and support a second referendum

Makes a lot more sense than their pledge to help the left behind in places that haven’t voted Labour for generations and certainly won’t vote for Corbyn

Deepthroat is aware that the referendum result was only 51.9/48.1? And that, if anything, there has been a slight movement to Remain since the referendum? He’s writing as if 70% of Lab voters backed Leave…patently absurd. Lab might not be pursuing the shouty, gobby, lowest common denominator politics that he likes (at least in regards to Brexit), but not everyone thinks the same as him- thank Christ.

How incomplete to quote NATIONAL statistics when we know* the LAB BREXIT vote was concentrated in certain areas & certainly not spread equally across the nation. A GE will be a vote of 650 areas of the UK not a nationwide poll.

(* we can be reasonably confident of this)

It would be great if TIM or TRISTAN could actually give us all a list of the seats which they think Lab will gain (or receive a big towards) as a result of offering REMAIN to a GE electorate.

It would be great if TIM or TRISTAN could actually give us all a list of the seats which they think Lab will gain (or receive a big towards) as a result of offering REMAIN to a GE electorate.

‘It would be great if TIM or TRISTAN could actually give us all a list of the seats which they think Lab will gain (or receive a big towards) as a result of offering REMAIN to a GE electorate.’

But you are acting as if the polls will stay static once the UK actually leaves whereas I reckon it will take less than two years for people to recognise what a mistake they’ve made – even if we leave with some kind of deal – and people will start despising the Tories for what they have done to the country purely for their own purposes

I’m hearing reports Jeremy Corbyn is finally endorsing the People’s Vote campaign.

Huge if true. And for all the times I’ve criticised the man, he deserves credit for making the strategically and morally correct decision, even though he had some misgivings about it. This wouldn’t have been easy for him.

Sort of- From the email he sent to all Labour members (Including me) he said that if, as seems likely, parliament rejects the deal and if a general election leading to a Labour victory does not occur then all options remain on the table and will be supported – including campaigning for a public vote.

Youre a member?

If true it’s merely a statement of the bleedin obvious.

If May’s deal fails a peoples’ vote is likely inevitable, whichever party is in government.

Note Tusk’s words today about the EU being prepared for No Brexit.

A so called ‘people’s vote’ may well see a bigger victory for the leave side compared to 2016 even through polls currently do point to remain winning such a vote.

I doubt that very much, but so what.

If people democratically vote for chaos then fine.

Of course, Peoples Vote might also include May’s deal.

Do you really think a peoples vote is inevitable

I think the deal* passing through the Commons is much likely than a another public vote.

* it’ll be amended and tweaked and probably presented to Parliamnt more than a single time

That is my view as well.

Like the Greeks rejecting the EU bailout or the US congress rejecting TARP, the deal will likely squeak through at the last possible minute.

If the deal doesn’t go through the country will not tolerate the consequences of no deal for more than a couple of weeks.

Survation poll 15/11/18, 1,070 respondents

Draft Brexit deal
Support : 27%
Oppose: 49%

Another referendum tomorrow…?
LEAVE 47%
REMAIN 53%

I agree. An exhaustive process seems to be the most talked about process of pushing this through

Of course if the deal is rejected in December many of the worse no deal consequences would not occur until the End of March.

Yes and it’s possible we might have to suffer the consequences of no deal for a week or to before a deal finally gets through the commons. Perhaps under a new government / PM.

Such a situation would be almost certainly under a new Tory pm – prehaps a caretaker PM who promises to resign so that a full membership leadership election can occur.