Gain for the Lib Dems from the SNP in Aird & Loch Ness ward, Drew Hendry’s old council seat. The ward is split between this seat and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.

Lib Dems up 21% and ahead in every round. Wasn’t expecting that

don’t think anyone was

#libdemfightback 😉

#FarronPM2020

The sooner this constituency is renamed “Inverness” the better.

This constituency continues to be named after the constituent District Council areas that were abolished twenty years ago and did not continue as Scottish Unitary Authorities. Gordon, Banff & Buchan, …Carrick & Cumnock, …..Clydedale & Tweeddale are also still hanging around.

There’s also: … Roxburgh & Berwickshire / Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross / Ross, Skye & Lochaber / North East Fife

And in the Scottish Parliament, Ettrick… / …Lauderdale… / Eastwood / Dumbarton / Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

In fairness to the commission Banff & Buchan, Cumnock Area, Doon Valley, Tweeddale and Berwickshire all exist as area committees in local council structures.

Inverness, Badenoch, Strathspey, Nairn, Ettrick, Lauderdale, Ross, Caithness, Sutherland, Berwickshire, Carrick, Cumnock, Doon Valley, Banff, Buchan and Clydesdale all exist in some form within local ward names as well…

I don’t have any problems with the commission drawing from district council names, especially when it adds a little creativity to the constituency name, and in many instances few accurate alternatives exist, although admittedly INBS is probably better served under the name ‘Inverness’, ‘Inverness-shire’ or ‘Inverness and Nairn’.

Local by-election due in the Culloden and Ardersier ward on 6 October 2016: perhaps the most significant since the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

Culloden & Ardersier by-election today! Should prove an interesting one. Tories could well take second place here, to match 2016 the SNP should be looking to take around 42% of the vote here (I believe).

There are 4 independent candidates standing. In 2012, independents polled around 35%. Unless you know an awful lot about local politics here, and can tell us what they are all likely to score, comparing results to 2016 or anything else is pretty much a fool’s errand.

Total electorate: 9,237
Total number of ballots returned: 2,818
Percentage poll: 30.51%

Culloden and Ardsier

First Preference:
SNP – 753 (27.2%)
LIB – 463 (16.7%)
CON – 439 (15.9%)
IND – 315 (11.4%)
IND – 274 (9.9%)
GRN – 180 (6.5%)
LAB – 163 (5.9%)
IND – 158 (5.7%)
IND – 23 (0.8%)

Change from 2012
SNP -0.1
LIB +2.9
CON +11.4
GRN +1.6
LAB -8.0

Sensing a gain for the Lib Dems here (or possibly Independent)

All depends who voted for the independents really.

Later rounds suggesting that it will be between the SNP and Lib Dems. Lib Dems probably need a pretty good share of the transfers from the independents to win.

Round 6

SNP – 908
LIB – 703
CON – 515
IND – 414

Probably have the Lib Dems as favourites now. If the remaining independent’s votes transfer similarly to the last one, they should sneak it.

This seat was a Labour seat before the sad passing of the 85 year old John Ford, Highlands oldest councillor.

So two SNP Gains from Labour last night.

I wonder what spin NTY UK will put on this result as Labour goes from 1st to 7th place. No doubt a fantastic result for Labour and a dire one for the SNP.

@Dalek I think NTYUK is more of a Tory than anything else.

Also, the final result isn’t in yet. It’s apparently gone to a recount.

I’ve been told the Lib Dems are marginally ahead in the final round, but yes, it’s gone to a recount

I wonder if it’s close enough to merit a full recount. At the moment, it’s suggested it’s just the last stage.

Looks like the Lib Dems have nicked it.

Lib Dems win by 25 after a recount.

Yep that’s a Lib Dem gain.

“I wonder what spin NTY UK will put on this result as Labour goes from 1st to 7th place. No doubt a fantastic result for Labour and a dire one for the SNP.”

We use STV here in Scotland, Labour came third in 2012.

The LDs win by 25 votes over the SNP thanks to a big transfer of Tory votes in the final round.

“The LDs win by 25 votes over the SNP thanks to a big transfer of Tory votes in the final round.”

Didn’t 80% of the Tory vote transfer over to Labour in Renfrew South or something?

The Tory transfer here was:

TO SNP: 31 (3.6%)
TO LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 233 (39.6%)
NOT TRANSFERRED: 325 (55.2%)

I think somewhere between a half and two thirds usually doesn’t transfer.

The Tory transfers in the Aird and Loch Ness by-election were-

TO SNP: 23 (4.2%)
TO LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 303 (55.7%)
NOT TRANSFERRED: 218 (40.1%)

No doubt some of the Tory “non-transfers” this time had gone to one of the 4 Independents who were already eliminated

Very interesting to see the LD’s picking up here. I’m assuming the former Lab cllr. must have had a big personal vote given the Labour vote crashed.

@Pump: the politics here are considerably more inclined towards personality in comparison to elsewhere in Scotland – particularly at local council elections.

In 1988 Labour came within a whisker of gaining control of Inverness District Council coming from nowhere. Labour also advanced in Nithsdale District Council (Dumfries and West Dumfriesshire) that year paving the way for them gaining the parliamentary constituencies in 1997.

Perhaps the late Labour councillor was from that intake.

Is Alexander standing again here?

Apparently not

Strong result here for Cons.

Certainly was. Could we have the first Unionist MP here come the next election since Neil McLean lost to Russell Johnston in 1964?