Ilford North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 20874 (42.7%)
Labour: 21463 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 1130 (2.3%)
Green: 1023 (2.1%)
UKIP: 4355 (8.9%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 589 (1.2%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Redbridge council area.

Main population centres: Redbridge, Hainault.

Profile: Very much the Essex part of London, Ilford North is mostly semi-detached, lower middle class suburban housing, popular with London commuters. At its eastern end it runs out into Essex countryside, taking in Fairlop Waters Country park and Hainault Forest. In recent years it has become increasingly ethnically diverse, with a large Asian population as well as significant Black and Jewish communities. Overall just over half the seats population was white in the 2011 census, making it one of the most ethnically diverse seat to return a Conservative MP.

Politics: A key Conservative-Labour marginal, it was held by the Conservatives throughout the 1980s and was won by Labour in 1997, despite having been heavily adjusted in the 1997 boundary changes. It fell to the Conservatives in 2005 and Lee Scott built up a solid Conservative majority in 2010, unusually for a seat with such an ethnically diverse electorate. It fell to Labour in 2015, the most difficult Conservative held target that Labour managed to take.


Current MP
WES STREETING (Labour) Born 1983, Tower Hamlets. Educated at Westminster City school and Cambridge University. Former national President of the NUS. Redbridge councillor since 2010. First elected as MP for Ilford North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21506 (46%)
Lab: 16102 (34%)
LDem: 5966 (13%)
BNP: 1545 (3%)
Oth: 1899 (4%)
MAJ: 5404 (11%)
2005*
Con: 18781 (44%)
Lab: 17128 (40%)
LDem: 5896 (14%)
UKIP: 902 (2%)
Oth: 293 (1%)
MAJ: 1653 (4%)
2001
Con: 16313 (41%)
Lab: 18428 (46%)
LDem: 4717 (12%)
UKIP: 776 (2%)
MAJ: 2115 (5%)
1997
Con: 19911 (41%)
Lab: 23135 (47%)
LDem: 5049 (10%)
Oth: 750 (2%)
MAJ: 3224 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
LEE SCOTT (Conservative) Born 1956. Educated at Clark`s College Ilford. Professional fundraiser. Contested Waverley 2001. MP for Ilford North 2005 to 2015.
WES STREETING (Labour) Born 1983, Tower Hamlets. Educated at Westminster City school and Cambridge University. Former national President of the NUS. Redbridge councillor since 2010.
RICH CLARE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Chigwell School and Sheffield Hallam University.
PHILIP HYDE (UKIP) Born London. Former banker, now running a horticultural company. Havering councillor since 2014. Contested Romford 2010 as an Independent.
DAVID REYNOLDS (Green)
DORIS OSEN (Independent) Retired teacher.
Links
Comments - 474 Responses on “Ilford North”
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  1. Rivers10 – you merely illustrate the fact that Labour never manages to achieve/turnout on Polling Day the figure they are in the polls.

    So it’s not leads that are exaggerated per se for either Party but the Labour %.

    This was true in GEs, Europeans and Locals over the past 20 years.

  2. Lancs
    It isn’t just a Lab phenomena though the same applied to the Tories in the run up to 83, some polls gave them 30 point leads, the rolling average was in the mid 20’s on the day they managed less than 15.

  3. I’m pretty sure that the Conservatives should gain this seat back BUT it would help if UKIP stood aside here.

  4. UKIP are not standing here and will instead be supporting Lee Scott.

    We are talking about UKIP meltdown but it may actually be complete UKIP absence in many seats in the end… would have much more significant implications than the LDs/Greens standing down in some seats.

  5. Should be an easy retake for Scott.

  6. Was Scott a leaver or remainer?

    For UKIP generally, I don’t see the point in them standing against Leave MPs in Leave seats, or against a Leave Tory candidate in a Leave area held by a Labour remainer, like Creagh…

    I think it would be a shame if Streeting got beat though, he seems to be more in tune with public opinion as someone on the right of the Labour Party rather than the hard left… in respect of the need to win elections.

  7. I think he must have been a leaver for UKIP to stand down. UKIp also standing down in Leyton and Wanstead even through Creyer couldnt publiclally supportl leave and did vote for some of the amendments to the Article 50 bill .

  8. That and a 9% vote share last time.

    I doubt candidates are going to be in a rush to stump up £500 if they are doubtful they’ll get it back. Head office is skint apparently.

    The association I was a member of last night selected candidates for two of the four seats it covers, 16% & 19% were the shares there, backed up by six 2nd places out of the nine wards in 2016. All distant ones mind.

    The two constituencies with no candidate received 7% and 9%, one is a v poor area for UKIP anyway and the other is held by a Tory leaver looking at a big increase in his majority.

  9. I wonder if they stand in Maidenhead because the Prime Minster did back remain

  10. I imagine they wont stand in Romford or Upminster either.

  11. Local to me I don’t see the point in standing…

    Pudsey
    Morley & Outwood
    Wakefield
    Dewsbury
    Batley & Spen

    The candidate from Dewsbury in 2015 has been selected to go against Reeves in Leeds West, and he was the only person to apply for Dewsbury last time, which is where he works (lives in Leeds W).

    I think they will stand in Morley & Outwood… but the candidate from Wakefield has already endorsed the Tories and will probably campaign for them too. Relations between UKIP and the Tories in West Yorks are pretty cordial tbf.

  12. Increase the chance’s of tory gains. Which are very likely in Penistone and quite Likely in Don Valley.

  13. Depends on the constituency…

    Mary Creagh might as well pack her bags now, she’s not interested at all in local affairs and the Tories have been making noise about the Wakefield council for a while… if UKIP step aside they’ll gain reasonably comfortably, 2-3k maj.

    Lots of UKIP voters came from Labour but I aren’t convinced they’ll go back in any great number, indeed the NOTA ones might go to the Lib Dems, for the first time or returning to them.

    If they know where the C2DE voters that voted UKIP and leave… and can turn some over, there’ll be gains in Wakefield, Dewsbury… and increased majorities in Morley & Outwood.

    I’d be v surprised if Stuart Andrew has a majority of less than 8000 in Pudsey, for example. The area is trending away from Lab and he’s a popular constituency MP.

  14. Sophy Ridge at Sky News has tweeted that Lee Scott backed remain. I thought i had read somewhere that he backed leave through.

  15. Lee Scott was definitely a Leaver.

    Streeting will have a very strong ground game and will do his best to buck the trend. The problem of course is that he had an outstanding ground game last time and only won by a few hundred, so there must be a limited upside from doing even more canvassing etc than in 2015.

    He has a bigger national profile than in 2015 but will be handicapped by his association with Labour’s poor running of the local council and his vote for hard Brexit – unlike his colleague Mike Gapes he didn’t summon up the courage to oppose May in the critical A59 vote. And there is a fundamental contradiction in his campaign as he is fiercely opposed to Corbyn yet Labour winning somewhere this marginal would give Corbyn a huge boost in seeking to stay on beyond June 8th.

    In the round I expect Streeting will put up an energetic fight but go down by a couple of thousand, unless the national campaign takes an unexpected turn.

  16. The green Party have announced they are not standing here and are instead endorsing Wes Streeting.

  17. I tend to agree with Richard’s post. I don’t think the Conservatives will get a huge swing here (though UKIP not standing will make more of a difference than the Greens not standing) but they should get over the line by 1500 or so.

  18. As we know, this seat has got more difficult for the Tories in a long term sense.
    I think it started very soon after they regained it in 2005. The first obvious sign was the failure to extend the local election lead in 2006.

    However, I would expect them to regain it this time.

  19. That the Tories were confident about a seat that they ended up losing by 10000 sums up how extraordinarily badly they misjudged, well, almost everything.

  20. Plop
    That’s not even counting the fact they lost Southgate, Battersea, Croydon C, Twickenham and Kingston.

    I think most alarming for the Cons in London though is what happened to their target seats.
    As was mentioned Ilford North 18% majority
    Enfield North 21% majority
    Eltham 15% majority
    Tooting 27% majority
    Brentford and Isleworth 20% majority
    Ealing Central 25% majority
    Harrow West 27% majority
    Westminster North 27% majority
    Hampstead 26% majority

    I also remember 6 weeks ago there was talk about the Cons possibly even winning Hammersmith…well that ended up going Lab with a 36% majority!!!

    Something went terribly wrong for the Tories in this election

  21. It did.

    It is notable that over in NE London, the swing is a shade lower than in the West/Central side of the capital though.

  22. Wes Streeting has said that Ken Livingstone must be expelled from the Party, after Ken appeared on Press TV and debated whether the Holocaust was being exploited.

  23. Ken currently continues to be suspended

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