Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5561 (17.5%)
Labour: 15646 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3169 (10%)
Green: 943 (3%)
UKIP: 6313 (19.9%)
TUSC: 171 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 9333 (29.3%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of the Hull council area and one ward from the East Riding council area.

Main population centres: Hull, Hessle.

Profile: More commonly known as just Hull West and Hessle. Covers the city centre of Hull itself, much of the docks and the working class neighbourhoods of western Hull. Hessle lies to the west of the city and is a former shipbuilding town. The Yorkshire end of the Humber Bridge is in this seat, to the west of Hessle.

Politics: All three seats in Hull are safely Labour.

Current MP
ALAN JOHNSON (Labour) Born 1950, London, orphaned at an early age. Educated at Sloane Grammar School. Former postman and General Secretary of the Communication Workers Union, one of the few union leaders to support the abolition of Clause IV. First elected as MP for Hull West and Hessle in 1997. PPS to Dawn Primarolo 1997-1999, Junior minister at the DTI 1999-2000, Education 2000-2004, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2004-2005, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry 2005-2006, Secretary of State for Education 2006-2007, Secretary of State for Health 2007-2009, Home Secretary 2009-2010. Shadow Chancellor 2010-2011. Finished second in the Labour party Deputy Leadership election in 2007 and was touted as a potention leadership candidate for the future, but eventually ruled out standing, instead endorsing David Miliband. Resigned as shadow chancellor for personal reasons in January 2011, shortly afterwards it was revealed that Johnson`s wife had been having an affair with his police bodyguard.
Past Results
Con: 6361 (20%)
Lab: 13378 (42%)
LDem: 7636 (24%)
UKIP: 1688 (5%)
Oth: 2442 (8%)
MAJ: 5742 (18%)
Con: 5769 (21%)
Lab: 15305 (55%)
LDem: 5855 (21%)
Oth: 889 (3%)
MAJ: 9450 (34%)
Con: 5929 (21%)
Lab: 16880 (58%)
LDem: 4364 (15%)
UKIP: 878 (3%)
Oth: 865 (3%)
MAJ: 10951 (38%)
Con: 6933 (18%)
Lab: 22520 (59%)
LDem: 6995 (18%)
Oth: 310 (1%)
MAJ: 15525 (40%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
JO BARKER (Conservative)
ALAN JOHNSON (Labour) See above.
CLAIRE THOMAS (Liberal Democrat) Educated at West Buckland School and Sheffield University. University lecturer. Hull councillor since 2008.
PAUL SALVIDGE (UKIP) Educated at Hull Grammar School and Central London Polytechnic. Commercial manager. Former Hull councillor for Labour.
Comments - 120 Responses on “Hull West & Hessle”
  1. I think many of the Candidates Labour will field in seats it would win if it becomes the goverment would be corbynite. Only safe seat’s are having the diving up.

  2. Alex
    “It strikes me that it appears that the Labour PPCs will overwhelmingly be “moderate/ Blairite” and not Corbynites”

    One can’t make that assessment from what we know so far, of the seats with vacancies that Lab are almost certain to win only four have selected. Of those Ellie Reeves is a Blairite no doubt about it, Steph Peakcock is more of a Brownite, Emma Hardy is soft Left and as for Alex Norris truth be told I know practically nothing about him so its hard to judge.

    And as I said there are still another six seats (that Lab will almost certainly win) to declare. Early days.

  3. Is the Blairite/Brownite distinction really relevant any more? That power struggle feels like a very long time ago now.

  4. Polltrolls
    It matters in the sense that Brownites are not as right wing as Blairites. Sure there isn’t much between them in the same way there isn’t much between the soft left and hard left but people still insist on making that distinction.

  5. Norris seems to be soft left as well. From his twitter Likes he supported the attempt to remove Corbyn last summer.

  6. This seat has had shocking turnout figures (45% in ’05 / ’10). One way to read it is dissatisfaction with Johnson (very Blairite). A thumping win for Hardy.

  7. Possible shock Tory gain here according to Labour Uncut. I cant see it through seats with bigger Labour majorities will fall.

  8. Labour Uncut regularly chat utter garbage.

  9. In the context of a very good night for Labour, the result here was decidedly lukewarm. Labour up 4%, Conservatives up 12%.

    Is this the beginnings of a trend or is it just the disappearance of Alan Johnson’s personal vote?

  10. Ive friends who live here. Certainly people who may have once voted labour but voted tory this time. Whether that’s means anything or not i cant say

  11. Polltroll
    I’d say almost certainly the loss of Johnson, there are pro Tory trends in some parts of the country but not here in the Yorkshire West riding which if anything is drifting Labs way. Remember Davjd Davis’s old seat of Boothferry was not hugely dissimilar to this seat and he held it with 30% plus majorities throughout the late 80’s and 90’s while these days his vastly more Tory friendly successor seat of Haltemprice and Howden he holds by a similar margin, that demonstrates the shifts that have taken place here over the past 20 or so years..

  12. You surely mean the East Riding.

    I think the picture is more complicated than you suggest. Haltemprice is undoubtedly trending Labour- it is to Hull what West Bridgford is to Nottingham. However, the Howden part of the seat has if anything got better for the Conservatives, and Davis has manged to add 16% points since 1997, which is good going.

    Boothferry was actually rather different from this seat. It included Pocklington (now in Yorks E), and quite a lot of Brig & Goole. If it existed today, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it was more safely Conservative than it was in the 1980s. Labour support in Goole and the Isle of Axholme is not what it was- that much is obvious from how far Brig & Goole has moved to the Conservatives since 2005.

  13. *Brigg

  14. Basically, Boothferry was a small town/rural seat whereas Haltemprice & Howden is more middle-class suburban. Small town areas have of course got better for the Conservatives whilst suburban areas have moved towards Labour. This would not have been obvious in 1997 of course, which is why the boundary changes were regarded as helpful to the Conservatives.

  15. Tory
    Apologies two.major mistakes on my part there
    1) Yes of course I meant the East riding.

    2) I was getting Boothferry mixed up with the old Beverly seat. Your right Boothferry is a totally different seat and indeed the Tories would probably be stronger there today tgan tgey were back in the 80s and 90s. What I meant to refer to was the old Beverly seat which wasn’t hugely dissimilar to this constituency and where the Tories used to have huge majorities but these days it would probably be notionally Lab.

  16. Sorry for the typos I’m typing this on my phone

  17. Yes, the 1983-1997 Beverley seat was the town itself plus Haltemprice. I’m not sure how it would have voted in 2017. The Conservatives still have decent leads in Beverley itself and the seat will also have included some surrounding villages which are still strongly Conservative. Then again, it also included Hessle, which is now very good for Labour. I think we can agree it would have been pretty marginal with a considerable pro-Labour drift since 1992.

  18. Technically Hull West would be in Kingston-upon-Hull and Hessel in East Riding

  19. I am referring to the traditional East Riding and Hull is as much a part of that as Beverley or Haltemprice.

  20. “This seat has had shocking turnout figures (45% in ’05 / ’10). One way to read it is dissatisfaction with Johnson (very Blairite). A thumping win for Hardy.” May 4th 2017

    My assumption a lot of non voters now getting out and voting for a real Labour person appears to be correct.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)