Kingston upon Hull North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5306 (15%)
Labour: 18661 (52.8%)
Lib Dem: 3175 (9%)
Green: 2066 (5.8%)
UKIP: 5762 (16.3%)
Others: 366 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12899 (36.5%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of the Hull council area.

Main population centres: Hull.

Profile: More commonly known as just Hull North, the seat covers the northern part of the East Yorkshire industrial city of Hull. The seat includes the sole Conservative-voting ward in Hull, Bricknell, the University of Hull campus and the student dominated Newland Avenue and Beverley Road areas (though the main halls of residence of the university are actually outside the city itself in Haltemprice and Howden). They are outweighted however by the massive deprived council estates to the north of Hull, Orchard Park and Bransholme.

Politics: While it briefly became a close marginal at the 2010 election Hull North is normally a safe Labour seat and has been held by Labour since 1964 (between 1974 and 1983 the seat was called Hull Central). The 1966 by-election that elected Kevin McNamara was expected to be a close run affair and the promise to fund the Humber Bridge was made during the by-election campaign, one of the most egrarious examples of pork barrel politics in by-election history.


Current MP
DIANA JOHNSON (Labour) Born 1966, Northwich. Educated at Northwich County Grammar and Brunel University. Barrister. Tower Hamlets councillor 1994-2002. Contested Brentwood and Ongar 2001, London Assembly member 2003-2004. First elected as MP for Hull North in 2005. PPS to Stephen Timms 2005-2007, Government whip 2007-2009, Under-Secretary of State for Schools 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 4365 (13%)
Lab: 13044 (39%)
LDem: 12403 (37%)
BNP: 1443 (4%)
Oth: 2036 (6%)
MAJ: 641 (2%)
2005*
Con: 3822 (13%)
Lab: 15364 (52%)
LDem: 8013 (27%)
GRN: 858 (3%)
Oth: 1527 (5%)
MAJ: 7351 (25%)
2001
Con: 4902 (17%)
Lab: 16364 (57%)
LDem: 5643 (20%)
UKIP: 655 (2%)
Oth: 1069 (4%)
MAJ: 10721 (37%)
1997
Con: 5837 (15%)
Lab: 25542 (66%)
LDem: 5667 (15%)
Oth: 215 (1%)
MAJ: 19705 (51%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DEHENNA DAVISON (Conservative) Educated at Sheffield High School and Hull University. Student.
DIANA JOHNSON (Labour) See above.
MIKE ROSS (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Hull University. Hull councillor since 2002. Contested Hull West and Hessle 2010.
SERGI SINGH (UKIP) Shopkeeper.
MARTIN DEANE (Green) Contested Hull North 2005, 2010.
VICKY BUTLER (Yorkshire First)
Links
Comments - 37 Responses on “Hull North”
  1. The Lib Dems are not suffering the collapse in Hull that they have been experiencing in other Northern Cities.

    In the local elections last year they still won in three traditionally solid Labour working class wards of Derringham, Drypool, Pickering

    Holderness (with Hull Garden Suburb) and Kings Park, both East of the River Hull are of more mixed character but would have reverted back to safe Labour wards if Hull was Liverpool or Manchester.

    In the area around Hull University Labour gained Avenue ward and University ward but failed to regain the student district of Newland ward. The Lib Dems also retained the more affluent Beveley ward with ease.

    The Avenue ward was the Lib Dems longest standing ward but it had remained marginal as they gained and consolidated their support in others.

    It is interesting why the Lib Dems seem to hold up in Hull but totally collapse in Liverpool. In Hull the Lib Dems are retaining wards that they could not even come close in the 1980’s and 1990’s whereas in Liverpool they lose seats that they have held since the 1970’s.

  2. This is a constituency that could remain relatively marginal in 2015, as the Lib Dem vote has held up in Hull better than in other Northern cities in recent local elections.

    Something like –

    Labour: 14000
    Lib Dem: 9700
    Conservative: 4800
    UKIP: 2200
    Green: 1800
    English Dem: 400
    MAJORITY: 4300

  3. Mike Ross selected for the LDs. In 2010 their candidate was Denis Healy.

  4. That’s a bit high Green estimate even by my standards. 🙂

  5. Expect to see a large drop off in the Lib Dem vote in 2015 returning this seat back to the safe Labour column. Lib Dems in Hull have targeted the West Hull & Hessle seat for 2015 and all their campaigning strength is being centred in that area.

  6. that’ll be a waste of their time too. That will be an easy Labour hold.

  7. That sounds frankly ridiculous.

  8. The Lib Dems have done relatively well here, but that will not be as true at the general election as the vote they picked up on the higher turnout last time on a large swing from Labour is much more likely to return to Labour at the GE – this hasn’t been picked up in the lower turnout local elections.
    This will be a pretty safe Labour hold in 2015

  9. “It is interesting why the Lib Dems seem to hold up in Hull but totally collapse in Liverpool. In Hull the Lib Dems are retaining wards that they could not even come close in the 1980′s and 1990′s whereas in Liverpool they lose seats that they have held since the 1970′s.”

    Without looking at results it seems that Labour have come back more in Lancashire than Yorkshire generally.

  10. They are also completely different places. Liverpool is a big city and part of a pretty large metropolitan conurbation, with all that entails demographically and politically.

    Hull is a small city and very isolated by surrounding countryside.

  11. It’s true that the LDs have managed to hold on to some territory in Hull but they’re still losing a lot of support to Labour nonetheless. They have also been outmanoeuvred by David Davis in neighbouring Haltemprice & Howden.

  12. ‘They have also been outmanoeuvred by David Davis in neighbouring Haltemprice & Howden.’

    But like other seats where they came out of nowhere to compete with the Tories in 2001 – Maidenhead for example – I don’t think Howden & Haltermprice was ever a tangible prospect of a gain

    It’s Tory commuter land, with a slice of rural Yorkshire, and the Tories would have to be doing very badly not to hold on there

  13. Logically that might be true, but the fact remains that they did reduce David Davis’s majority to under 2,000. I think that they did quite well in the town of Howden, and got some “intellectual” votes from academics, senior health professionals and so on in the areas closest in to Hull. I can see how that seat got close somewhat more readily than I can explain how Theresa May contrived to get herself into trouble in Maidenhead.

  14. Hadn’t considered the academic vote, but for a seat that is one of the most affluent in the country, you would expect it to be firmly in Tory hands – as it now is

    I was always under the impression that it was the suburbs closest to Hill – like Cottingham – that were the most Conservative

  15. Traditionally that would have been the case, but I know that Cottingham is a popular location for Hull University (& no doubt other) academics to live, and I rather suspect that the Tories have lost votes disproportionately in such demographics in recent years.

  16. LAB HOLD MAJ : 19%
    LAB 45
    LD 26
    UKIP 12
    CON 11
    GRN 5
    OTH 1

  17. I would think that the 1983 – 1997 Beverley constituency (urban Beverley and Haltenprice) would have a very large middle class public service now and could be harder for the Conservatives to defend than either of the two successor constituencies that also include Howden and Holderness.

  18. I see Diana Johnson on local politics shows quite a bit, but still don’t know much about her. For some reason I put her in the same category as Angela Smith (the Sheffield/Barnsley MP, not the former Basildon one) and Meg Munn.

    They have or had (while Labour was in government) frontbench roles but still seem kind of anonymous compared to other colleagues. You could ask most Tory or Lib Dem voters if they’ve heard of e.g. Diane Abbott, Caroline Flint or Glenda Jackson and they’d say ‘of course’. Not so much Diana Johnson.

  19. As we were discussing Hull North on the Burnley thread, I’ve crunched the 2011 and 2012 local election results here to demonstrate that Dalek is substantially overselling Lib Dem prospects here.

    In 2011 there were no local elections in Bricknell ward (the only Conservative ward in the city) and in 2012 there were no elections in either of the Bransholme wards (west is a Labour fortress, east is strongly Labour but with a decent independent challenge) or in University (Labour in 2011, LD during the Blair and Brown years). The 2011 results thus slightly understate the Tories, whilst the 2012 results substantially understate Labour.

    2011:
    Labour 9661 (51.5%)
    Lib Dems 5828 (31.1%)
    Cons 1193 (6.4%)
    Greens 863 (4.6%)
    UKIP 667 (3.6%)
    Ind 485 (2.6%)
    TUSC 52 (0.3%)

    2012:
    Labour 5401 (41.3%)
    Lib Dems 4601 (35.2%)
    Cons 1344 (10.3%)
    UKIP 1002 (7.7%)
    Greens 733 (5.6%)

    So even with two of their best wards not up that year, Labour were still comfortably ahead in 2012.

    For context, the same wards that were up in 2012 gave the Lib Dems a 15.0% advantage in 2008, so they’ve still fallen back considerably.

  20. Vicky Butler standing for Yorkshire First.

  21. Vicky Butler standing here for Yorkshire First.

    Butler stood in the Hull CC elections last year in University ward for UKIP, finishing just 91 votes behind the winner.

  22. Mike Ross is a very popular local councillor. He comfortably defended his Newland Ward which is a very run down area of Victorian/ Edwardian terraces North of the city centre when the Lib Dems lost the Avenue Ward.

    Labour are not destroying the Lib Dems in Hull in the way they are in Liverpool or Manchester.

    My view is that he will seek to keep the increase in the Labour majority back to 10 to 20% making it a potential target in 2020.

  23. Sergi has one of the best election leaflets I’ve ever seen.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB5V8TjWYAAW-Et.jpg

  24. Dalek is right.Cllr Ross might just pull off a sneaky little win here

  25. absolutely no way whatsoever. Very easy Labour hold.

  26. Stupendous momentum!

  27. God if the Lib Dems win here, it will confound nearly all predictions!

  28. An almost certain Labour hold…Imo by about 15% margin.

    Too many students and public sector housing here for Labour to fail.

  29. Absolutely. Even if they do have a local councillor standing here, it doesn’t mean they will any better just because of it!

  30. Why is the Bricknell ward so solidly Conservative when they do so dreadfully in all the surrounding wards? I assume it is because most of the wealthy housing in Hull is clumped together in that ward. It just seems a little odd that they always win this ward comfortably then get sub 10% in all neighbouring wards.

  31. It’s now over a decade since I lived here, but I can’t believe that much has changed. Bricknell Ward does indeed include the best housing I came across: Newland Park across the road from the university where Kevin McNamara used to live when he was the MP. However that’s a pretty small area, with most of the housing being unspectacular Victorian terraces and semis.

    I think Bricknell (and the old Newland Ward that largely preceded it) has been so Conservative for so long simply because John Fareham is a really effective and determined local campaigner. That he was first elected in the late 90s when the Tory Party nationally was still very unpopopular is a testament to that.

    Labour will hold easily here, for all that the above assessment that the Lib Dems have not declined as spectacularly in Hull as in other northern cities is correct. Cllr Ross is standing here five years too late. I remember being bemused as to why he stood in Hull W last time rather than in N where he lives and has been a councillor for some time. He would have won in 2010. I can only assume that he stood in W because he didn’t actually want to win.

  32. Labour Hold. 9,000 majority.

  33. 9% is still a firm base to build on for the Lib Dems. The Tories only came ahead by default and are only bumping along the bottom here. Next year will be the test. Get some good candidates selected and the stupendous momentum back into gear and going again like in 2005. It’l be dificiled to win in 2020 but a close finish.

  34. The following have all resigned or are expected to:

    Diana Johnson
    Anna Turley
    Toby Perkins
    Neil Coyle
    Roberta Blackman-Woods

  35. Also Stephen Kinnock and Christian Matheson – but like Neil Coyle they were only PPSes.

    Blackman-Woods has said she’s resigning if Jeremy doesn’t.

    Given how far to the left of the party some of those resigning are I’d expect another 20-odd junior shadow minister resignations, spread out to make it difficult for Jeremy to do his reshuffle. We may also see some more shadow cabinet resignations if Corbyn insists on staying on after meeting with Watson and Angela Eagle.

  36. If Corbyn does not resign I expect Jon Ashworth, Maria Eagle and others to go

  37. The size of the Conservative vote in Avenue Ward is incredible 2.5%. This was once the strongest Conservative ward in Hull, returning John Townend as Leader of Hull City Council in the late 1960’s.

    Many of the people who once lived here will have moved out to new suburbs and the population now is strongly linked to the University and public service employment.

    Perhaps the Lib Dems regaining a seat here this year took most of the remaining Conservative vote.

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