Huddersfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10841 (26.8%)
Labour: 18186 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 2365 (5.8%)
Green: 2798 (6.9%)
UKIP: 5948 (14.7%)
TUSC: 340 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7345 (18.1%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire.

Main population centres: Huddersfield, Almondsbury, Kirkheaton.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
BARRY SHEERMAN (Labour) Born 1940, Sunbury-on-Thames. Educated at Hampton Grammar School and LSE. Former university lecturer. Contested Taunton Oct 1974. First elected as MP for Huddersfield East in 1979.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11253 (28%)
Lab: 15725 (39%)
LDem: 10023 (25%)
GRN: 1641 (4%)
Oth: 1882 (5%)
MAJ: 4472 (11%)
2005*
Con: 7597 (22%)
Lab: 16341 (47%)
LDem: 7990 (23%)
GRN: 1651 (5%)
Oth: 1361 (4%)
MAJ: 8351 (24%)
2001
Con: 8794 (25%)
Lab: 18840 (53%)
LDem: 5300 (15%)
GRN: 1254 (4%)
Oth: 1195 (3%)
MAJ: 10046 (28%)
1997
Con: 9323 (21%)
Lab: 25171 (56%)
LDem: 7642 (17%)
Oth: 938 (2%)
MAJ: 15848 (36%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ITRAT ALI (Conservative)
BARRY SHEERMAN (Labour) See above.
ZULFIQAR ALI (Liberal Democrat) Born Bradford. Retailler. Former Rochdale councillor.
ROB BUTLER (UKIP) Teacher.
ANDREW COOPER (Green) Educated at Staffordshire University. Business development manager. Kirkless councillor since 1999. Contested Yorkshire and Humber 2014 European election.
MIKE FORSTER (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 48 Responses on “Huddersfield”
  1. LAB 49
    CON 21
    LD 15
    GRN 10
    (If, like 2010, UKIP doesn’t stand)

  2. Why would the Green vote more than double here? I know you may well be thinking I’m just being inquisitorial to you, but I’m genuinely open to any argument. I have no problem with you asserting a Green surge is happening. I may disagree with it, but it’s great to have a range of views. But I am still curious as to why, here in Huddersfield, the vote would more than double here. To be honest, with any prediction – for you and anyone else – it’s best you accompany it with some kind of rationale.

  3. 2012 council election results for this constituency:

    Labour: 10,673 (47.8%)
    Greens: 4,380 (19.6%)
    Conservatives: 4,069 (18.2%)
    Liberal Democrats: 2,847 (12.7%)
    Independent: 252 (1.1%)
    TUSC: 119 (0.5%)

    Total votes: 22,340

    Compared to the 2010 council election results here:

    Labour: +11.7%
    Liberal Democrats: -13.1%
    Conservatives: -4.3%
    Greens: +9.5%
    BNP: -4.4%

    Swing from Con to Lab: 8%

  4. Wow, suggest these are a bunch of council election results everyone missed. Didn’t expect to work these out and find the Greens came second in 2012. Admittedly, over half their vote came from just one of the five wards, but still.

    Another interesting fact is, in 2010, the Conservatives were down 5.3% on the local vote compared to the parliamentary one, allowing the Liberal Democrats to come second locally.

    Sufficed to say WoC, I see a clearer rationale for your prediction. However, be warned. In 2010, you got 10% of the local vote, yet just 4% of the parliamentary vote, meaning you lost 60% of your voters nationally. If you lost 60% of your vote from 2012, you’d get around 8%, which isn’t far off your own prediction.

    I do think the inevitable UKIP intervention will hurt you amongst voters who go for the anti-establishment vote, but being able to brag you came second here in the local vote will do you a world of wonder here. My guess is, you won’t hit 10%, but you will hit in excess of your deposit.

    And thanks for posting here, otherwise the intriguing 2012 council election results might not have been noticed.

  5. Of course, I will revise my prediction depending on the strength of the parties here in 2014. Crucially, with regards to the Greens, I’m presuming UKIP will finally stand some candidates in the local elections then, which will gave an idea of how much they may or may not eat into the Green vote. If the Greens have another big boost, I think talk of double-digits is not far off then!

  6. I had heard Green representation on the council was significant here, the Green candidate is lead candidate for the regions in the Euros next year and is expected to become an MEP, making his profile bigger and so allowing him to stand here and pass on MEP status should he win like Caroline Lucas. Also, the Green vote was 4 times higher here than nationally in 2010, and on an expected 3% national vote share, that would suggest 12%- though probably a gfigure that high won’t be achieved. I think I predicted 9.6% for the Greens here: I always round in my posts though.

  7. Don’t get hung on on how much bigger the 2012 local vote was compared to the 2010 national vote. Like I said, you got 10% of the local vote in 2010, yet 4% of the national vote. You lost 60% of your supporters, so there’s no sense linking 2012 local and 2010 national together.

    My point was, you’ve doubled your local vote from 2010 to 2012, but UKIP haven’t yet intervened. Yes, being an MEP will help abit as well, and like I said coming second in the constituency in 2012 is something you can rightly brag about. For now, you can convincingly say you’re the opposition party in Huddersfield. But I’m certainly not talking double-digits until I see how the 2014 local elections go.

  8. ‘Also, the Green vote was 4 times higher here than nationally in 2010, and on an expected 3% national vote share, that would suggest 12%’

    To emphasise, that’d bad math. There’s no point talking about how much bigger your local vote in 2012 was compared to your 2010 national vote, because you got 10% of the local vote in 2010 but lost 60% of those voters when it came to the national.

    And just in general, that math makes no sense anyway. You’re saying, the 2012 local was four times higher (five times actually) than the 2010 national, ergo you will get four times more than the national swing in 2015…

    …huh? See above about the discrepancies between a local and a national vote. It happens in alot of constituencies.

    If this is the kind of math you’re using in making your various predictions around the site, no wonder you get taken to task. Please follow the kind of math more experienced hands here use, and you’ll be able to come up with some more sturdy predictions.

  9. *than the national share in 2015…

  10. Yeah, I have had to improvise this sort of stuff because Green share is rather small and unpredictable. Perhaps it’d be better for me to say that 2010 GE performance was 2.525 times lower than local elections, so based on the 2012 share, that would be about 8.5% nationally- but of course that would be in 2012 not 2015!

  11. *by nationally I mean at a GE

  12. Surely in such a Labour/’left’ focussed area, UKIP will not even get a second look by most?

  13. Yes, that math is a better way of looking at it. Of course, doesn’t mean there will be the exact same drop in 2015 as in 2010, but it is a good way of thinking about the advances the Greens have made here.

    For alot of UKIP voters, it isn’t about left or right. It’s about voting UKIP because it’s the anti-establishment party. The party that isn’t ‘them’. And there’s an audience for that in ostensibly left-wing constituencies just as in right-wing ones. The trouble for your party is you compete for the same kind of voters. Of course, it’s not the only group behind the Greens here, but it is going to be a significant group, and UKIP will inevitably eat into that.

    Your party has just got to do all it can here to solidify its place as the opposition party in this constituency before 2014, when I would be very surprised if UKIP aren’t able to scrape together a few candidates for the local elections.

  14. We all know about UKIP’s 23% share in the May locals, but has anyone calculated Green share yet Van Fleet?

  15. I don’t know for sure, but I think the Green figure was never calculated. Reason being is I know UKIP’s share was never calculated before the 2013 local elections, because it was relatively small and not worth the number crunching. I can only imagine that’s still the case for the Greens.

  16. I’m not surprised 🙂

  17. The idea of the Greens getting an increase in their vote is based on the Council elections where the Greens are strong in ONE ward out of Five. All three seats in Newsome are held by the Greens. In the General Election of 2010 the Parliamentary candidate got less votes than the elected Newsome candidate in the same year.

  18. Barry Sheerman MP is a good candidate for retirement in 2015. He has recently closed his office in Huddersfield and he has had a good innings.

    I have seen him a couple of times speaking locally and I was impressed by him, surprised he never became a minister under Blair.

    Not so sure the current drift to the left is really Barry’s cup of tea and might be a factor whether he stands again.

  19. Interesting that this is described as a safe Labour seat. They’re not in any danger of losing it in 2015, surely, but got less than 40% of the vote so it could easily be threatened by an undivided opposition.

  20. I think Sheerman has already announced that he is seeking re-election. That isn’t to say that he might not change his mind though – Jack Straw has done so recently.

  21. I don’t have him on the candidates list so he can’t have officially announced it yet unless I missed it.

  22. Am I right in think the MP here stands for the Co-Operative Party as well as Labour?

    Perhaps Anthony might amend the biographies of the MPs concerned to show if they are Labour and Co-operative, rather than just Labour. This has not recently been very important, but it may be significant at the next General Election.

  23. 2014 Local Election Results for Huddersfield constituency:

    Labour : 9,637 (44.3%)
    Conservative : 3,955 (18.2%)
    Green : 3,882 (17.8%)
    Lib Dem : 2,938 (13.5%)
    UKIP : 603 (2.8%) 1/5
    TUSC : 425 (2.0%) 3/5
    Independent : 320 (1.5%) 1/5
    Total : 21,760

    Changes on 2012 :
    Labour : -3.5%
    Conservative : nc
    Green : -1.8%
    Lib Dem : +0.8%
    UKIP : +2.8%
    TUSC : +1.5%
    Independent : +0.4%

    1.75% swing Lab -> Con

  24. At this stage, my prediction would be something like:
    LAB 43
    CON 23
    LD 17
    GRN 8
    UKIP 7
    OTH 2

  25. prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 42%
    Con- 26%
    Green- 15%
    Lib- 9%
    UKIP- 8%

  26. Labour Hold. 9,000 majority.

  27. Sheerman calls for the leadership contest to be suspended.

  28. I’ve been hearing rumours that a certain Mr. Miliband is being lined up for this seat!!!!! Wonder what the possibility this will be in 2018.

  29. The local MP for Huddersfield thinks that a Corbyn led Labour party could lose Huddersfield, Batley and Spen and Dewsbury at the next General Election. He is quoted in the Huddersfield examiner and on his own website as saying Labour faces a wipe-out unless Owen Smith usurps Corbyn.

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/labour-could-lose-three-kirklees-11794536

    http://www.barry4huddersfield.co.uk/leadership

    I think Sheerman’s letter is quite profound in forecasting zero seats for Labour in Kirklees.

  30. *

  31. Maxim
    A few things…
    Firstly on a slightly unrelated note I imagine this seat voted to remain by a fairly comfortable margin. Kirklees went for leave by 55% and I don’t see the likes of Batley, Dewsbury or Denby Dale being bastions of remain support, Huddersfield on the other hand is surprisingly middle class in parts and has a reasonably large student and academic population, it will have certainly provided the bulk of remain votes in Kirklees.

    Moving onto the main premise of your post though. For one I think its beyond outlandish to say Labour will lose all of their voters who voted leave. For one some of Labs leave voters are old Bennites who clearly aren’t going anywhere while Corbyn is in charge. As for the rest who would they vote for? UKIP? Their in just a bad a state as Labour are these days, the Tories? A party that also primarily backed a Remain vote with a leader who backed remain, what’s luring them all that way. To put it simply there isn’t a credible party for all of these Leave voters to jump to.

    Also I’m becoming increasingly confident that Lab either won’t split or the split will be tiny, near insignificant. As has been pointed out here many times before people outside of Lab often underestimate how tribal most Lab MP’s are, they are devoted to the Lab party even if they do hate the current leader. Talks of splits have been repeatedly ruled out by moderates cos they all know that electorally it would be utterly pointless.

    Finally even if they did split the evidence suggests that whoever gets the Lab party brand (which will almost certainly be Corbyn led Labour) gets the vast majority of electoral support as well. It certainly wouldn’t split 60/40.

  32. Is Huddersfield a competitive seat this time round? There is a solid Conservative base, many of the Students will have finished their exams and be off.

  33. This MP has a personal vote so I wouldn’t have thought so – unless he doesn’t stand and even then the Tories wouldn’t have long to campaign here.

  34. Barry Sheerman confirmed he’ll stand again.

    There was an article in the Huddersfield Examiner with the Chair of the local Conservative Party, giving the impression they’d been taken by surprise with the snap election too. No candidate in place yet. Things would have to be going very badly for Labour to lose this time around.

  35. The total Con+UKIP vote here is below Labour’s, and there’s a 7% Green vote which will surely be squeezable by Labour under Corbyn.

    This is the kind of seat Labour will only lose if they go sub-150 seats, not likely IMO.

  36. Agreed. There are better long shots for the Tories than Huddersfield- Wolverhampton NE comes to mind, so too Sedgefield.

  37. Daft to assume labour does not suffer haemorrhage to Tories, as there are clearly labour to Tory switchers, if the polls are in any way accurate.

    Look forward to deepthroat on this. He got both the Tory victory in 2015 and brexit which he called 52 to 48%. Impressive.

    HH though an analyst got both wrong. As did I, though as a Brexiteer, I was less sure about the result. Got the Tory victory in 2015 completely wrong though

  38. Not sure why you always pipe up to pick on me for that on the few occasions when I post these days, given that 70% of the site also predicted GE2015 and Euroref wrongly…including yourself.

  39. If being the important word. I’ve found no Labour-Conservative switchers on the doorstep so far.

  40. Jamie,

    There is a base of 27% Conservative voters… But there are no conservative activists and one Conservative councillor who got himself in by 60 votes in a four-way marginal after trudging round the ward single handed (more or less) on a semi-continuous basis for several years. Tories are much stronger in Dewsbury… The Greens are extremely well embedded in one ward, the Lib Dems still have a councillor in another.

    I would imagine the Tory vote will go up but not as a result of any campaigning. Sheerman is quite popular in the way that a well loved local monument might be…

    But yes, if the Tories put in a bit of effort with Labour in such a parlous state, even Huddersfield could fall!

  41. Thank you Andrew.

    The very peculiar polls we seem to have just now would, I think, make this very tricky for labour. I would have thought there are activists and councilors in Huddersfield’s other, normally marginal seat, Colne Valley to help out. But yes other West Yorkshire Labour held seats are easier wins for the Tories.

  42. HH is right.

    The last minute Asian Tory PPC in 2015 illustrates that there just isn’t the on-the-ground activity here for the Tories to take advantage of any national swings and run with it.

    Unlike Wakefield where I hear Anthony Calvert may be bidding to be an MP again. He would have been in 2015 if he’d stuck with Morley of course.

  43. Jamie,

    Yes, plenty of Tories in Colne Valley, which may be considered safe enough this time for them to migrate to Huddersfield. They may not be too complacent though having lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Lindley and let Labour overtake them in the Colne Valley ward to take a Lib Dem seat last May. I daresay the Lib Dems will be hoping to make a bit of a come back this time in Colne Valley constituency which was Remain by a small majority i believe

  44. Andrew Indeed, there is a long Liberal tradition

  45. Conservatives name their Huddersfield General Election candidate as Cllr Scott Benton:

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/conservatives-name-huddersfield-general-election-13002484

  46. Barry Sheerman had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn in 2016 but now says he has got confidence in him as leader.

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/huddersfield-mp-barry-sheermans-amazing-13074704

    This strange U-Turn reported in the examiner, a paper loyal to Labour seems a bit strange as Sheerman had condemned Corbyn and McDonnell for their well known links to terrorist organisations in the past. In the current climate I cannot understand Sheerman’s wobble in respect of Corbin’s leadership.

  47. Former Mayor of Kirkless, Cllr Jean Calvert has resigned from the Labour Party.

    She was already suspended from the Group pending an investigation, after it was revealed she again owed Council Tax (she was previously prosecuted for this).

    Cllr Calvert has been a Cllr for 25 years.

  48. Again – Not my post above – impersonator.
    Posted by
    Real Joe James B

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