Hornsey & Wood Green

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5347 (9.3%)
Labour: 29417 (50.9%)
Lib Dem: 18359 (31.8%)
Green: 3146 (5.4%)
UKIP: 1271 (2.2%)
Others: 245 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 11058 (19.1%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Haringey council area.

Main population centres: Wood Green, Noel Park, Alexandra Palace, Muswell HIll, Crouch End, Cranley Gardens, Highgate.

Profile: The western half of the Borough of Haringey. This is a fashionable and trendy areas for young professionals and the middle class intelligensia, though there are also areas of council housing and a diverse ethnic population, including Jewish, Cypriot and Afro-carribean communities.

Politics: This was a Conservative seat until 1992 but by 1997 had become what looked like a rock solid Labour seat, with Barbara Roche enjoying a majority of over 20,000. The Liberal Democrats surplanted the Conservatives as the alternative to Labour here, winning the seat in 2005 under Lynne Featherstone, later to become a minister in the coalition government. In 2015 it was an intensely fought seat, with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats concentrating resources here. In the event it was a far more comfortable victory for Labour than many expected, with Catherine West securing a solid majority of 19 percent.


Current MP
CATHERINE WEST (Labour) Born Australia. Educated at School of Oriental and African Studies. Leader of Islington council. First elected as MP for Hornsey & Wood Green in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9174 (17%)
Lab: 18720 (34%)
LDem: 25595 (47%)
GRN: 1261 (2%)
Oth: 292 (1%)
MAJ: 6875 (12%)
2005
Con: 6014 (13%)
Lab: 18117 (38%)
LDem: 20512 (43%)
GRN: 2377 (5%)
Oth: 310 (1%)
MAJ: 2395 (5%)
2001
Con: 6921 (16%)
Lab: 21967 (50%)
LDem: 11353 (26%)
GRN: 2228 (5%)
Oth: 1594 (4%)
MAJ: 10614 (24%)
1997
Con: 11293 (22%)
Lab: 31792 (62%)
LDem: 5794 (11%)
Oth: 1800 (3%)
MAJ: 20499 (40%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SUHAIL RAHUJA (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Financial analyst. Westminster councillor since 2006. Contested Manchester Central 2010.
CATHERINE WEST (Labour) Born Australia. Educated at School of Oriental and African Studies. Leader of Islington council.
LYNNE FEATHERSTONE (Liberal Democrat) Born 1951, London. Educated at South Hampstead High School and Oxford Brookes University. Design consultant. Haringey councillor 1998-2006.Contested Hornsey and Wood Green 1997, 2001. London Assembly member 2000-2005. MP for Hornsey and Wood Green 2005 to 2015. Minister for Equalities 2010-12. Under-secretary for International Development since 2012.
CLIVE MORRISON (UKIP) Born Jamacia. Educated at Southgate Technical College. Enfield councillor 1998-2002 for the Labour party. Contested Edmonton 2010 for the Christian party.
GORDON PETERS (Green) Born Scotland. Educated at Health and social development consultant and former Director of Hackney Social Services.
FRANK SWEENEY (Workers Revolutionary) Contested Luton South 2010.
HELEN SPILBY-VANN (CPA)
GEOFF MOSELEY (Hoi Polloi) Photographer and film maker.
Links
Comments - 491 Responses on “Hornsey & Wood Green”
  1. I don’t think outlining the facts on a constituency forum is particularly funny.

  2. Oh yes. So many facts. No supposition at all.

    Incidentally Teddy, what is your prediction re: Lib Dem seats for this General Election?

  3. Lose : Bradford E, Burnley, Solihull, Somerton & Frome, & Redcar

    Gain: Maidstone, Watford, oxford west, Rochdale and Montgomeryshire

    So no real change Tristan

  4. Fair enough Teddy.

  5. ‘I think her diligent record will be enough Tim’

    As someone who will be voting Lib Dem in a seat they have no chsance whatsever in, I hope you’re right Teddy – although i suspect you’re not

    I’ve come to regrettably concede that the Lib Dems might be in for an ass-kicking on Thursday – on the basis that they have plumetted in every type of election since forming the coalition (excpt the by-elections in Eastleigh and Oldham East & Saddleworth). Why would this election be any different?

    Of course there will be more than a handul of seats where incumbancy will help the Lib Dems hang on, but I suspect there will be more where it won’t – and i think this seat comes under that category

  6. I think that the Lib Dems will scrape 30 seats. Some of the most recent polls (Hallam, North Cornwall) show a bit of a climb back from the abyss. Do you think the ass kicking will be worse than that?

  7. The Lib Dems will be in the mid to high twenties in my view. The Hallam poll may have been an improvement but the picture in N Conrwall was no different from the previous poll.

  8. My original projections showed the Liberals around 30 seats. However I now believe the figure will be 20-25, and this seat won’t be one of them.

  9. ‘Do you think the ass kicking will be worse than that?’

    Not worst

    I agree with your anaysis of no more than 30 seats, although i had thought that 2015 would see a gradual but sustainable recovery in the Lib Dem vote to the mid-teens come polling day

    There has been a recovery – just an extremely narrow one – and I don’t think it’s enough for the Lib Dems to recover to the margin they need to to get around 40+ seats that I thought was well possible this time last year

  10. They are making a tiny recovery in the national polls, the latest have them at about 11%. I’ve previously said 25-30 seats; personally I now think it’ll be at the top end of that range (with this not being one of them).

    Watford and Montgomery are the only two seats I think they have a realistic chance of gaining. No way can I see Danczuk with his local and national profile losing Rochdale.

  11. All leaflets had gone out by yesterday lunchtime. The story merited a small piece in the Evening Standard. It seems not to have had the media impact LF may have hoped for.

  12. It doesn’t need to have impact for ES readers in Dagenham and Hounslow.. its the retraction coming through the mailbox in HWG that has the effect (if it’s even read)..

  13. They were only at 9% in yesterday’s Com Res and Survation polls.

  14. RIP… Telephone Polling…

  15. Although I have worn my feet to the bone delivering leaflets, I fear that the overwhelming majority go straight in the recycling box.

  16. Often the wife chucks them away immediately, before the husband even gets to see them…that’s certainly the case in my household.

    I think the Lib Dems in particular have done a great deal to discredit election leaflets, both in terms of over-doing the delivery and the dodgy, borderline inaccurate contents. They are now treated in the same way as take away menus and estate agent flyers.

  17. BBC poll of polls:

    Con 34%, Lab 33%, UKIP 14%, LD 8%, Greens 5%.

  18. Where is the great swing back to the LDs that I’ve been promised for months and months?

  19. It’s difficult to believe the Greens are on just 3% in London because most national polls are still putting them on about 5% and London is undoubtedly the best region for the Greens so they ought to be above 5%.

  20. Seen on the twittersphere:

    Rebecca Taylor @RTaylor_LibDem ยท 11m11 minutes ago

    Friendly postman tells me he’s delivering tons of paid for #Labour literature in #Hornsey. Seems they’ve lots of money but no deliverers..

  21. I am still assuming that this will be a fairly comfortable Labour gain, but it’s interesting that the 538 model only gives Labour a 0.1% lead, and that in the general thread AW mentions he thinks this seat might be in play. If Featherstone somehow wins here, it would be an accomplishment on a par with Teather holding Brent Central in 2010.

  22. ‘All parties standing in any constituency have the right to a free leaflet drop by the Royal Mail.’

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/30/election-leaflets-royal-mail

    I can assure you everything else has been delivered by volunteers. Lacking, as we do, a candidate with personal wealth.

  23. That Labour have saved their Freepost in HWG for the last day stretches credibility a tad… I had been wondering how it would get the retractions out with so little time.. maybe now we have the answer despite the protestations..

    The only way that the party would be able to satisfy a court that everyone had been circularised would be by using Royal Mail.. Otherwise its “Honest, Your Honour, our guys delivered everyone by hand”.. hmmm

    Whatever, it certainly must have thrown the last five days of the campaign from positive campaigning to retracting and all hands to pump with delivering the backtracking letter.

    Can one find online a copy of the retraction? Has anyone seen the text?

  24. The idea that the LDs could take Rochdale from Labour is totally looney tunes. Has our friend Teddy seen the local election results there recently? The LDs will be very lucky even to get 2nd place there, indeed it’s not totally inconceivable that they could be beaten by Labour, UKIP AND the Tories.

  25. LAB gain 2250 but this is one of the more potentially volatile London seats on the day.

  26. As Hemmelig and others have said, I think responding to Teddy is feeding the troll. I doubt if he’s really a Lib Dem supporter.

  27. Quick! Call in Nate Silver!

  28. In Pudsey the Labour party have delivered several things along with the pizza adverts etc. Often of a national flavour (to avoid the short campaign expense limit). So have the Tories.

    The total spent is many many times more than they could possibly have raised from Labour members in Pudsey alone. In marginal seats like Pudsey and Hornsea/ Wood Green the national parties (including the Lib Dems) put in loads of money for leaflets, delivery, phone calls etc

  29. One of the bookies make Labour joint favourites in Pudsey. The Tories are perhaps fractional favourites in most people’s eyes, but it’s one of the seats where l may change my prediction at the last minute.

  30. Barnaby,

    I think Pudsey is anyone’s guess, to be honest. To cheer you up I will probably vote Labour for the first time in my life tomorrow…

    Stuart Andrew is quite a good MP though… (well, I would never vote Tory!)

    Andrew

  31. oh didn’t realise you live there! Well with your vote we can win ๐Ÿ˜‰

  32. Ah yes I was a Lib Dem councillor in Horsforth long ago!

    Of course I would vote for Mulholland in Leeds NW with no hesitation at all! But not for Clegg!

    Andrew

  33. Labour Gain. 1,000 maj

  34. apparently turnout is expected to be up to 80% here in some polling stations, final nail in LDs coffin?

  35. Hard to say John.

    Clegg will be done for on an 80% turnout in Hallam, whereas here and in Bermondsey it’s harder to say which party a mammoth turnout works for.

  36. Andrew

    But are you going to vote Labour for the city council in Horsforth??? I suspect not.

  37. where does “turnout is expected to be 80%” come from? a weather reading?

  38. “Clegg will be done for on an 80% turnout in Hallam”

    I’ve been saying for ages if Labour can get the student vote out today it will get them over the line in Hallam by a whisker!

  39. Guardian live feed were reporting the 80% figure btw, according to a polling station guy apparently ?

  40. @Chevin Guy

    No, I didn’t! Split ticket!

    re Hallam: the turnout was exceptionally large in 2010. Second only to Westmoreland in the north of England as I recall.

    I think I would put it as “if the turnout is low Clegg will be very safe” A mammoth turnout in any part of Hallam but Crookes will help Clegg I suspect

  41. JS – I assume you don’t mean 80% in Hornsey? Hallam maybe.

    Weather is cool but dry in the NW. I hear its sunny in the South and wet in the Midlands.

  42. HWG resident here. No sign of the Labour retraction leaflet here as of last night (didn’t look at the post this morning). We did, however, get a couple of other leaflets from Labour yesterday.

  43. John Smith’s post re 80% was made at midnight so can’t see how it came from a polling booth guy!

  44. It wasn’t – it was @ 11.29am today.

  45. Featherstone’s gone. Huge swing to West.

  46. Very Easy Labour Gain.

    Lab 29,417 50.9%
    LD 18,359 31.8%
    Con 5,347 9.3%
    Green 3,146 5.4%
    UKIP 1,271 2.2%
    Other 245 0.4%

    Majority 11,058 : 15.8% swing.

  47. So the fact that Catherine West lives half a block outside the constituency boundaries proved not to be the killer blow to her campaign as predicted.

    Turnout was 73 per cent, higher in some polling stations.

    The claim that LD signs outnumbered Labour 2 to 1 was in a corner of Stroud Green I never stumbled on.

    The huge team of LibDem activists consisted of lone individuals with a clipboard which we Labour teams of five caught sight of from time to time

    In this constituency she was doomed the moment she became part of the coalition. As I keep saying HWG punishes its MPs.

  48. This must be one of the higher turnouts in London at 73%.

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