Hornchurch & Upminster

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27051 (49%)
Labour: 11103 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 1501 (2.7%)
BNP: 193 (0.3%)
Green: 1411 (2.6%)
UKIP: 13977 (25.3%)
MAJORITY: 13074 (23.7%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Havering council area.

Main population centres: Hornchurch, Upminster, Cranham, Harold Hill.

Profile: The most north-eastern seat in London, where the metropolis gives out to the green belt and open farmland around Upminster. It is mostly an affluent, middle-class residential area of owner-occupied housing, giving way to smaller villages like Noak Hill, though there is also a large LCC overspill estate at Harold Hill. The M25 passes through the seat (indeed, it is the only Greater London seat that includes significant area from outside the M25).

Politics: The seat was created in 2010 from the merger of the old Hornchurch and Upminster seats, pitting two Conservative MPs against one another for the selection. In the event Angela Watkinson was successful, leaving James Brokeshire to look for a seat elsewhere, ending up in Old Bexley and Sidcup. Both Hornchurch and Upminster were won by Labour in their 1997 landslide, but were swiftly won back by the Conservatives, the combined seat can be considered as very solidly Tory.


Current MP
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) Born 1941, Leytonstone. Educated at Wanstead County High School. Former council officer. Havering councillor 1994-1998, Essex councillor 1997-2001. First elected as MP for Upminster in 2001. Government whip 2010-2012. Made a DBE in 2012 for public and political service. She is a former member of the Monday Club, forced to resign in 2001 when Iain Duncan Smith ruled it was no longer compatible with membership of the Conservative party.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27469 (51%)
Lab: 11098 (21%)
LDem: 7426 (14%)
BNP: 3421 (6%)
Oth: 3976 (7%)
MAJ: 16371 (31%)
2005*
Con: 16820 (49%)
Lab: 10778 (31%)
LDem: 3128 (9%)
BNP: 1174 (3%)
Oth: 2777 (8%)
MAJ: 6042 (17%)
2001
Con: 15410 (46%)
Lab: 14169 (42%)
LDem: 3183 (9%)
UKIP: 1089 (3%)
MAJ: 1241 (4%)
1997
Con: 16315 (39%)
Lab: 19085 (46%)
LDem: 3919 (9%)
MAJ: 2770 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Upminster

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) See above.
PAUL MCGEARY (Labour) Educated at Campion Grammar School and University of East London. Project manager. Havering councillor since 2010.
JONATHAN MITCHELL (Liberal Democrat)
LAWRENCE WEBB (UKIP) Former electrician. Havering councillor. Contested Hornchurch 2005, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010. Contested London region 2009, 2014 European elections. UKIP London mayor candidate 2012.
MELANIE COLLINS (Green) Retired health worker.
PAUL BORG (BNP)
Links
Comments - 245 Responses on “Hornchurch & Upminster”
  1. HH is right. Not to mention that Havering is the borough that most Eastenders escape to if they still need to be close to London, family, work etc. Bexley is the equivalent on the other side of the water.

    Havering and Bexley, Bromley and even Chingford are lucky that the children of those who left places closer to London and are now buying places of their own are choosing to stay in these areas and are likely to vote the same way as their parents.

    In regards to this seat, due to the fact that it is quite pricey, those of the younger generation who cannot afford to stay here tend to move further out into Essex to Chafford Hundred, Purfleet, bits of Grays and Brentwood or Basildon where its cheaper, no doubt helping the Tory vote in these places.

  2. I hope my last post isn’t too confusing!

  3. No, it’s a good point.

    My personal experience of “moving out” of Bromley is that the nature of the area tends to lead to Tory voters being replaced by Tory voters. In this respect it differs from Croydon, Redbridge etc, where Tory voters are mostly replaced by Labour voters, and gives the impression of a much more solid Tory voter base overall.

    We outgrew our lovely flat in Beckenham when the kids came along and moved out to Sussex for more space. A nice young professional couple bought the flat and I’m sure that in a few years they will follow in our footsteps.

  4. Labour supporters seem quite cautious about their predictions – perhaps because they already did quite well in 2010 in London.

  5. I am sure you are right HH. Beckenham wouldn’t be the obvious place for Labour voters to opt for.

    The north of england has plenty of people born in the south who positively opted to move north, me being one of them

  6. Ewan MacColl and Peggy Seeger lived in Beckenham

  7. I think 2014 and 2015 locals will provide good results for Labour. Local elections after that (if Lab win general) will start edging towards the conservatives again.

    I imagine Labour will take Merton and Redbridge at least with Croydon also a likelyhood.

    Labour however will not do that well in Surrey in next Municipal Elections and still be wiped of most councils. They will hold their three councillors in Court ward in Epsom and may take Stanwell North in Spelthorne but thats probably about it.

    In Kent they may gain Thanet and Dover but the rest will remain true blue. The Lib Dems will try and take Maidstone Council and fail. I have even some very optimistic Lib Dems feel they can take the parlamentary. I would say yes if they were popular but they are very unopopular at this time so No way will it happen.

  8. I do apologise for going off to other seats on this thread. I should really be sticking to Havering politics.

  9. I don’t think there’s any way Labour can take Dover council. The ward boundaries have always tended to corral Labour votes into relatively few wards, even in a very good Labour year, and also it includes Sandwich & its surrounding area unlike the parliamentary constituency.

  10. I’m going to predict the London seats using approximate GE ward breakdowns. For this seat, I’m expecting:
    CON 43 (-9)
    LAB 24 (+3)
    UKIP 22 (+17)
    LD 5 (-9)
    GRN 3 (+2)
    OTH 3 (-4)

  11. I think that a 6% swing from the Conservatives to Labour is unlikely and I also think that this prediction also overestimates the likely UKIP vote. I know that this seat is potentially fertile territory for them, but 22%? I think the shadow that they cast on the wall is a distorted one and larger than the reality. In a GE, I would say that they are unlikely to get more than 10-12% of the vote here at most.

  12. I think Lotus’ estimate of the Labour share is about right but I don’t agree with the rest, for the reasons that Dr John mentions. My prediction would be:

    Con 50
    Lab 24
    UKIP 12
    LD 8
    Oth 6

  13. I have decided to stop making GE predictions for the time being. I now realise that it is too early to be making predictions as the situation is so volatile. I guess the main question is how many people who are UKIP voters right now will vote UKIP next May?

    I don’t think we will know this until April 2015 really.

  14. It’s still fun making predictions. I’m not sure that the situation is that volatile actually. Barring a major NHS crisis in late winter 2015 or some other unforeseen event, we are heading for another hung parliament I think. The UKIP shadow on the wall – likely to be at its most distorted after the Euros – will gradually fade to its proper proportions.

  15. I wouldn’t dismiss UKIP so easily. They are a serious danger to all three of the Conservatives (especially), Labour, and the Liberal Democrats. Farage seems to be playing his cards extremely well as despite all of the negative media coverage UKIP still has the most momentum and is the party developing the most in their target areas. If voters are as apathetic next May as they seem to be right now then we could see a major realignment of politics in this country. That is however one side of the scenario and I believe that a UKIP share as low as 10% is also a significant possibility.

    I am going to wait and see what happens after the euro elections first. Making predictions is fun for sure but I have realised that there isn’t really enough information right now to predict many seats.

  16. I know that ‘The Times’ has come under attack for making accusations about Farage and his expenses, but apart from that I think he is quite indulged by the media actually. The Mail and the Telegraph seem to hang on his every word and his irritating beer swilling ‘irrepressible’ persona seems to hold many journalists in thrall.

  17. If UKIP can manage the 14% they are averaging now, they will have a large impact in places where the Tories are strong, polling above average i.e. quite a bit above 14%. As much as I hate to say it, UKIP could easily become the new SDP.

  18. Dr John – that’s because most journalists love a few pints themselves no doubt. I have a feeling that Farage could find this office/expenses issue rather harder to shake off than he first thinks.

  19. Barnaby – suspect you may be right. Have seen no sign of the threatened legal action yet which is interesting,

  20. As long as UKIP keeps projecting negative media reports about them as a stitch up by the establishment and bias to the main parties, they’ll continue to resonate with the public. The party was under fire not too long ago, but then that was followed up by the debates with Nick Clegg. Gave Nigel Farage a bounce in his step.

  21. I think my party would benefit hugely from having a media team like UKIP’s one. I know of O’Flynn and Towler but who else is behind UKIP’s media operations? They have been playing the spin game very well.

  22. stealing from Brussels isn’t the same as stealing from your own like Miller.

  23. Very unique result here. NOC with Residents the largest group. Slightly bad for the Tories but alarming for the Lib Dems and esp Labour.
    Residents (combined) 24 (31%)
    CON 22 (28%)
    UKIP 7 (20%)
    LAB 1 (17%)
    GRN 0 (2%, contested <33% of wards)
    LD 0 (<1% yet contested more wards than Greens)

  24. Having been in the area last weekend, I am surprised how badly UKIP did here. The had plenty of posters up, in very prominent places, and even the M25 roundabout seemed to be voting UKIP. I would have imagined that if they were going to lead the polls in any constituency in London, it would be this one, which is pretty Thurrock-like.

  25. UKIP have more councillors in this constituency than the Greens have in the entirety of Greater London

  26. I don’t think anything like as many people will be arguing the Green Party will win a seat in London as will argue UKIP will win one. But if UKIP were to target a constituency in London, where will it be? Hornchurch & Upminster looks like it is still very much a safe Tory seat.

  27. I haven’t heard anyone suggest UKIP will gain a parliamentary seat in London even inspite of the tendency of some of our more enthusiasitic supporters to get carried away about our prospects. I’m sure you’re right that this is possibly our best seat in Greater London and we have done very well in Harold Hill. I haven’t looked in detail at the other resuls in Havering but you have to remember how firmly entrenched the various Residents associations are in this area, especially in Cranham and Upminster. Far harder to take votes from them in local elections than it is from the ‘established’ national parties, but of course the Residents are not a factor in parliamentary contests

  28. True but Greens utterly smashed UKIP across London so should have far more. In fact, if we had PR they would have 29 Councillors on just 3 councils instead of celebrating a doubling to 4 (almost 5 as were so close to getting 2 inLambeth).

  29. ”Very unique result here. NOC with Residents the largest group. Slightly bad for the Tories but alarming for the Lib Dems and esp Labour.”

    Totally agree about your analysis of Labour’s performance here.

    This is the kind of seat Labour should be appealing to if they want make their way back to the government benches. Just like the way Blair managed to win this seat in 1997.

    I don’t know this seat too well but I get the feeling this seat contains mainly C2’s / upper working classes / lower middle classes but the problem is Miliband simply doesn’t appeal to these type of people which is very worrying for us Labour supporters.

    Apparently, Joey Essex is a fan of Miliband and Labour and have taken many selfies together. Love him or hate him, he’d be a huge asset to Labour especially in appealing to the voters in seats in Kent and Essex which they managed to win in 1997.

    If I were Miliband I’d phone up Joey Essex and go on a tour with him to each marginal seat (and fairly winnable seat) in Essex and Kent, just like Cameron did with Gary Barlow during the last General Election campaign.

    I know some people will read this and think I’m crazy but we now live in a world of celebrity. If Joey Essex and Miliband toured Essex and Kent, I’m sure they’d swing a few votes in Labour’s direction.

    Crazy but true!!!!

  30. You are unfortunately probably right there, Christian.

    UKIP massively under performed here. Just 7 out of the 54 seats were taken by UKIP, when the council was all up.

    UKIP took 11 seats in nearby Basildon when just a third of the council was up. If the whole council was up, a result like that suggests that UKIP would have won around 33 out of the 45 seats on Basildon Council.

    This seat must be off UKIP’s target list for sure, even though it did look like an attractive prospect prior to the elections last week.

  31. Quite an underwhelming performance definitely! Was expecting a much better UKIP showing on Thursday. Perhaps the sheer level of Residents’ Association candidates lessened their prospects, as well as Tories being a lot more of the Thatcherite mould than Cameroon Tories.

    Watching the coverage, if I recall correctly, Labour in neighbouring Barking & Dagenham are meant to be Eurosceptic, with a mention of that Labour For A Referendum movement that started last year. Maybe that helped them keep their grip on the borough.

    Also, re Miliband’s problems with seats like this, even Blair couldn’t hold these very long. Romford swung heavily to the Tories in 2001, Angela Watkinson gained the old Upminster seat that year, while Hornchurch (seemingly their best seat of Havering then) was lost in 2005.

  32. Christian, the “this kind of seat” formulation gets us nowhere. Labour can’t win this seat in current circumstances, though I wouldn’t say that it’s lost for eternity necessarily. You can in the end only devise ways of winning constituencies which are winnable, not beat yourself up with “we should be winning such-and-such a seat” which is clearly no longer winnable. A seat which was lost even by Blair in 2001 is going to be extremely difficult at best & Labour has to move on & win the marginals & semi-marginals where it now has a chance.

  33. ” Greens utterly smashed UKIP across London ”

    What do you base this assertion on exactly? Have you aggregated the votes for each party across London? Have you worked out the average vote share each party got where they stood or aggregated the the totals in specifically those wards in which both parties stood? How many such wards were there and in what proportion did the Green sbeat UKIP and vice versa?

  34. Neil and Barnaby – Yes, you’re both right. For now, Labour should concentrate on winning seats like Harlow and Thurrock.

  35. 111 – I agree with your post too.

  36. “I haven’t heard anyone suggest UKIP will gain a parliamentary seat in London even inspite of the tendency of some of our more enthusiasitic supporters to get carried away about our prospects. I’m sure you’re right that this is possibly our best seat in Greater London and we have done very well in Harold Hill. I haven’t looked in detail at the other resuls in Havering but you have to remember how firmly entrenched the various Residents associations are in this area, especially in Cranham and Upminster. Far harder to take votes from them in local elections than it is from the ‘established’ national parties, but of course the Residents are not a factor in parliamentary contests”

    Epsom and Ewell would bve another area that should be strong for UKIP (only 112 votes behind the Tories in the Euros) problem is the Residents are very well entrenched in areas like this and are as right wing as UKIP. They polled very well in Epsom in the county council leections but failed to take a CC ward there.

  37. @Pete Londonwide, the Greens scored about 15% to UKIP’s 7% IIRC.

  38. In Romford the Residents’ Association hasn’t done as well as in this seat, but UKIP still failed to do as well as it would surely have hoped. Although in terms of Tory support this seat still has South Essex rather than London voting patterns, there’s no doubt UKIP has done better over the county boundary than here this year, with the party’s gains being disproportionately in the few wards left with any Labour councillors.

  39. http://dailym.ai/1BjIWHg

    Lucky (for her) that this seat is safe. Yet another snout in the trough it would seem, and this is a pretty big conflict of interest.

  40. Are you planning to post snide/libellous stuff on all the threads? I’m sure Anthony will be thrilled.

  41. Nothing snide or libellous about it. She’s guilty as sin.

    Of course, had I posted regarding two Labour MP’s, you would have ignored it. You are one of the most tedious, partisan contributors to this site. Hemellig may be obnoxious and very rude, but he isn’t partisan.

  42. Nevertheless Anthony does prefer it if you avoid this on the site. He can be made personally liable for it.

  43. OK Barnaby, I would guess that the chances of this lady taking legal action against the Daily Mail as being virtually zero, and I’m pretty certain I haven’t libelled her, but I will refrain from referring to stories in the Mail (a newspaper I don’t like but I think we can all agree is very influential).

  44. You may find Guido Fawkes’ site more suited to your style of posting.

  45. I’m so sorry I’m not coming up with the usual bottom licking sycophancy Runnymede.

    Why on earth would I take advice from someone whose views appear to be even further right wing than Enoch Powell. Your posts are the usual establishment right wing nonsense that have screwed this country over for decades.

  46. what a rude so and so you are tristan, anyway, it’s the semi-socialist, welfare dependent ideology you espouse that has ruined the country.

    The establishment is a social democrat, left wing ramp…the idea that the British establishment is right wing is laughable.

  47. James the same applies to you. Why not spout nonsense like that somewhere else?

  48. I fear we are only encouraging them, Barnaby.

    This site may become unreadable as the election approaches, at this rate – which is a shame as it has been very informative in the past.

  49. I wonder if Dame Angela will retire. Todays news may make her consider it. She is 73 and will be 74 at the end of the year. If she doesn’t I suspect it will be her last term as she will be 78 come the 2020 election.
    If she left mid term UKIP could do decently in this seat and maybe even win but Labour unless UKIP had imploded and Tories at their lowest 1990’s style levels.

  50. “I’m so sorry I’m not coming up with the usual bottom licking sycophancy Runnymede.

    Why on earth would I take advice from someone whose views appear to be even further right wing than Enoch Powell. Your posts are the usual establishment right wing nonsense that have screwed this country over for decades.”

    Go away, we don’t want rude and partisan posters.

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