Hornchurch & Upminster

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27051 (49%)
Labour: 11103 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 1501 (2.7%)
BNP: 193 (0.3%)
Green: 1411 (2.6%)
UKIP: 13977 (25.3%)
MAJORITY: 13074 (23.7%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Havering council area.

Main population centres: Hornchurch, Upminster, Cranham, Harold Hill.

Profile: The most north-eastern seat in London, where the metropolis gives out to the green belt and open farmland around Upminster. It is mostly an affluent, middle-class residential area of owner-occupied housing, giving way to smaller villages like Noak Hill, though there is also a large LCC overspill estate at Harold Hill. The M25 passes through the seat (indeed, it is the only Greater London seat that includes significant area from outside the M25).

Politics: The seat was created in 2010 from the merger of the old Hornchurch and Upminster seats, pitting two Conservative MPs against one another for the selection. In the event Angela Watkinson was successful, leaving James Brokeshire to look for a seat elsewhere, ending up in Old Bexley and Sidcup. Both Hornchurch and Upminster were won by Labour in their 1997 landslide, but were swiftly won back by the Conservatives, the combined seat can be considered as very solidly Tory.


Current MP
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) Born 1941, Leytonstone. Educated at Wanstead County High School. Former council officer. Havering councillor 1994-1998, Essex councillor 1997-2001. First elected as MP for Upminster in 2001. Government whip 2010-2012. Made a DBE in 2012 for public and political service. She is a former member of the Monday Club, forced to resign in 2001 when Iain Duncan Smith ruled it was no longer compatible with membership of the Conservative party.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27469 (51%)
Lab: 11098 (21%)
LDem: 7426 (14%)
BNP: 3421 (6%)
Oth: 3976 (7%)
MAJ: 16371 (31%)
2005*
Con: 16820 (49%)
Lab: 10778 (31%)
LDem: 3128 (9%)
BNP: 1174 (3%)
Oth: 2777 (8%)
MAJ: 6042 (17%)
2001
Con: 15410 (46%)
Lab: 14169 (42%)
LDem: 3183 (9%)
UKIP: 1089 (3%)
MAJ: 1241 (4%)
1997
Con: 16315 (39%)
Lab: 19085 (46%)
LDem: 3919 (9%)
MAJ: 2770 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Upminster

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) See above.
PAUL MCGEARY (Labour) Educated at Campion Grammar School and University of East London. Project manager. Havering councillor since 2010.
JONATHAN MITCHELL (Liberal Democrat)
LAWRENCE WEBB (UKIP) Former electrician. Havering councillor. Contested Hornchurch 2005, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010. Contested London region 2009, 2014 European elections. UKIP London mayor candidate 2012.
MELANIE COLLINS (Green) Retired health worker.
PAUL BORG (BNP)
Links
Comments - 245 Responses on “Hornchurch & Upminster”
  1. Touche.

    You’re right. UKIP doing well in Chessington and Tolworth would help the Lib Dems to hold their seats, which is counter to what 111 is arguing.

    Comparisons with 2004 ignore the massive demographic change there has been since then. At a rough guess the WWC has halved as a % of the Greater London electorate in that time.

  2. I would expect UKIP to do about as well in 2014 as 2009 in London.

  3. Chessington and Tolworth is very much more WWC and not like Kingston and Surbtion far more like the less upscale parts of Epsom and Ewell (which I believe would be very good UKIP terrority if not for the Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell).

  4. “At a rough guess the WWC has halved as a % of the Greater London electorate in that time.”

    Still plenty of them on Eastenders.

  5. ““At a rough guess the WWC has halved as a % of the Greater London electorate in that time.”

    Still plenty of them on Eastenders.”

    Very much agreed, Eastenders does not represent Newham and Tower Hamlets in any shape of form. Its more demographically like places further up the central line like Hainult.

    You never saw George Galloway and his Respect party campaigning in Albert Square circa 2005.

  6. I disagree with 111 that the LDs will lose all their seats in Camden. They’ve held Fortune Green for over 30 years & I’d be quite amazed if they lost it now & I find it quite hard to believe that they would be wiped out in W Hampstead either. However I do think that more Tories than LDs will be elected in Camden. The idea that the LDs will suffer a “bloodbath” in Sutton is my view quite laughable. If the LDs were able to hold Stonecot ward comfortably in a by-election (the only one there has been in Sutton since 2010) despite a handy increase in the Labour of the vote, it suggests they will be absolutely fine. Rightly or wrongly, the LD-controlled council in the borough has a pretty good reputation & the Tories (and UKIP even more so) will have pretty limited traction there.

  7. The LDs probably will do extremely badly somewhere in London, it’s just difficult to say where it will be.

  8. HH
    I don’t think UKIP would do all that well in Chessington or Tolworth.

    Although it does remain an area which would probably be Con v Lab if it wasn’t in this Parliamentary seat.

  9. “Rightly or wrongly, the LD-controlled council in the borough has a pretty good reputation”

    I think the reputation is well deserved. Unlike many of its near neighbours further into London it hasn’t changed beyond all recognition which means it retains those people with long links in the area. The good schools must help the Lib Dem vote as well as parents will vote for whoever retains the high status of their childrens school. Normally its the Tories, but in Suttons case its the Lib Dems.

  10. you obviously haven’t suffered a Lib Dem council in Richmond or Kingston
    otherwise you wouldn’t be so tolerant but given your proximity to some councils down the bottom of a deep dark hole I can understand who you think you’re main opponents are.

  11. Though I believe Labour will have their best night in London since 1998. I do believe the number of seats they will take in the historically Lib Dem South West triangle will be very few. I say Norbiton will be the only whole ward taken maybe a seat in Heathfield at a push. Sutton will still be a wipeout only because of the UKIP factor in the Carshalton wards and the LDs to retain the council with 10 to 14 Con seats maybe 1 or 2 UKIP somewhere but nothing like 10/11

  12. UKIP 32 LD 13 Con 9

  13. Wow if thats what happened in Sutton. I wonder what Bexley and Havering would look like? I will go with LD 41 Con 12 UKIP 1 for Sutton, Havering to be lost to NOC with an RA/UKIP coalition.

  14. Surrey Politics: I am completing a comprehensive model of every London ward at present. It is clear from the London Assembly list votes in 2010 that it is unlikely that UKIP will only take 1 or 2 seats in Sutton. I have found that Sutton will probably provide UKIP with their best result outside Havering though I still need to model a few boroughs.

    Greenwich could provide some UKIP Councillors in the Eltham wards. I also expect the Greens to perform strongly, taking a record 4 seats in Camden and regaining some seats in Lewisham to form a group of 5 Councillors. Interestingly the Greens look like they will struggle to take any seats in either of the two Highbury wards in Islington as the Labour shares are just too high for them to overcome.

    The Greens major breakthrough in London next month will be in Haringey though I expect. Having looked at the numbers they could form a sizeable grouping on Haringey Council. However as my model is still incomplete I cannot provide a number just yet.

  15. Sutton has the demographics for UKIP though I feel the Lib Dems are too well entrenched here to lose seats on mass. I think a better borough for UKIP would be Bexley, very like Sutton and Epsom but with a Con v Lab battle which would be easier for UKIP to penetrate into it.

  16. The problem for the Lib Dems is that since 2008 their support in London has declined enormously according to London Assembly election ward by ward results. They aren’t even competitive in all the Camden wards. In Sutton they are still competitive but the Tories have eaten away at their support and it looks like UKIP has to some extent too. However they will be polling at least triple the number of votes in Sutton that they got back in 2012 next month.

  17. You simply can’t make a comparison between the LDs’ performance in London-wide elections and municipal ones, especially in a borough where they have a very good reputation for competence & hard work in running the local authority, rightly or wrongly, which they do in Sutton. The LDs are notorious for their inability to do well in GLA elections but while they give some useful pointers in some of the Lab-Con contests they are of almost no use in assessing the LDs’ likely borough performance. I really think that you’re getting too excited about Sutton, 111. Surrey Politics has it I believe about correct vis a vis the Tories & LDs, and, sadly, Labour in Sutton, but I personally would be rather surprised if UKIP win any seats at all even though the demography of the borough appear to be favourable to them.

  18. Barnaby Marder and 111, If Sutton followed GLA/mayoral results the the Conservatives would have won every seat on the council in 2010.

    Of course that did not happen and I never expected it to though I did expect them to gain control of the council.

    However, the Liberals bounced back halfed the tories seats even gaianing a seat in stronghold Cheam!!!!!!

    The old Cheam South was normally the safest Tory ward in London from 1964 till 1982.

    The problem for Labour in Sutton is they reached the highwater mark in 71 and their vote has squeezed and squeezed by the Libs ever since.

    Similar story in Richmond though at least they had a mini revival in 1994 and 1998.

  19. Only credible scenarios – not firmly thought predictions…. There is a range

    Sutton
    LD 37 Con 17 UKIP 0

    Richmond
    C 36 LD 15 Lab 3

    Kingston
    Con 32 LD 13 Lab 3

    Hounslow
    Lab 49 C 11

    Redbridge
    Lab 42 C 18 LD 3

    Croydon
    Lab 39 C 31

  20. Tories could gain Sutton
    and do better in all the Boroughs mentioned.
    As I said – a range.

  21. Sutton
    LD 41 Con 12 UKIP 1

    Richmond
    C 37 LD 16 Lab 1

    Kingston
    Con 23 LD 22 Lab 3

    Hounslow
    Lab 46 C 14

    Redbridge
    Lab 40 C 19 LD 4

    Croydon
    Lab 37 C 33

    Merton
    Lab 34 C 23 R 3

    Wandsworth
    C 43 Lab 17

    Hammersmith and Fulham
    C 25 Lab 21

    Newham
    Lab 60

    Barking
    Lab 51

    Islington
    Lab 48

    Havering
    C 22 R 14 UKIP 12 Lab 6

  22. I think you’re over estimating UKIP a bit even in Havering.
    I’d hope to hold on with a beter majority than that in Hammersmith.
    Interesting people still seem to think Croydon is finely balanced – if so perhaps we can hold on.

  23. With Croydon I feel its whoever wins Waddon wins the council.

    Bexley

    C 44 Lab 15 UKIP 4

    Bromley

    C 53 Lab 5 LD 2 – same grouping as 1968 and 1982

    Camden

    Lab 37 C 12 LD 6 Grn 2

    Barnet

    C 33 Lab 27 LD 3

  24. You’re figures look pretty sensible overall.
    I can’t quite remember what happened in Islington last time – I think the Libs lost a lot of seats already so wipeout is possible perhaps.

    I’d hope for 1-2 Con seats there one day.
    Perhaps in Barnet C can pick up the LD seats shoring up our position against Labour

  25. I think longterm Hackney, Islington and Camden will be good prospects for Conservatives to start making inroads and possible overall control in the latter.

    Merton is getting near impossible for the Conservatives mainly because of RA grouping in Merton Park which is the one ward needed to win control.

    St Helier and Ravensbury were good for the Conservatives in 2006 but now these wards have a very sizeable BME population that is loyal to Labour.

    Cannon Hill, Lower Morden and West Barnes are now getting the demographics that suit Labour too. UKIP could split the right in the Morden area and hand Labour seats.

    Funny enough, former good Labour areas like Trinity and Dundonald are now quite safely Conservative.

    The demographics of Enfield and Harrow have also swung away from the tories.

  26. Harrow C seem to have had more success amongst middle class Asians,
    but in Enfield North we had dreadful results even in the Boris election.
    Majorities of 500-600 in 2008 replaced with Lab majorities of the same size in 2012 in a string of wards.

  27. It will be interesting to see what happens in Hackney, Kensington and Chelsea and Tower Hamlets due to the wards changing. Kensington and Chelsea will probably be something like C40 Lab 10.

    In Tower Hamlets nearly all the seats will be Labour with maybe 3-5 Conservatives in opposition.

    Hackney will be similar the Conservative grouping maybe a bit larger.

  28. I didn’t know there were boundary changes this time?

    Personally I prefer single member wards but the time for local government upheaval is probably over

  29. Joe – I think Labour will take Croydon, but only by a small majority of 4 seats, not 8. I certainly don’t foresee such a large Labour majority in Redbridge either, not unless Labour were to win outright in Wanstead, Barkingside (or conceivably Snaresbrook) AND Hainault, which personally I doubt. I’m not as optimistic from a Tory point of view in Kingston either. The fact that the Tories failed to win both Berrylands & Surbiton Hill in by-elections since 2010 doesn’t bode well for them. Yes I KNOW they won Beverley, but that took a very serious paedophile scandal. Surrey Politics, I think they’re quite good predictions without an obvious exception. I rather doubt that the LDs will be totally wiped out in Islington, but it is possible – I suspect they’ll just cling on to at least one seat in Highbury E ward. I will willingly take even one Labour seat in Richmond-upon-Thames, though at present our canvassing returns in our target ward remain quite good considering how far back we start from.

  30. Surrey Politics is too pessimistic for the Lib Dems and Labour in Bromley.

    I think Labour and the Lib Dems will be at 5-6 each, there is also potential for UKIP to sneak a couple of seats in the Cray Valley.

  31. Which seat outside Zone 1 will have the highest tory vote share?

  32. In 2015 that is.

  33. Orpington, unless Farage decides to stand in his home seat.

  34. Chelsea and Fulham must be a candidate as well.

  35. that’s partly in Zone 1. Having said that there’s no reason why you’d know the TfL zones intimately Andy. Beckenham & Ruislip/Northwood/Pinner are also candidates for this accolade.

  36. Agree with BM as per Redbridge – I do think Labour will finally win majority control, but they won’t be demolishing the Tories. It’ll be a smallish majority.

  37. Not sure – there’s quite a range there.
    Anyway, we’ll soon know.

  38. Perhaps the Tories could get 25 seats in Redbridge
    with Labour on about 34
    Can’t see it closer than that although not ruled out.

    More like Lan 36-22-5.
    The only way C could win would be if Labour narrowly misses a few seats in split wards and the Tories wipe out the LD seats in Woodford which could be cutting their heads off for nothing as the LDs are in coalition with them.

  39. It would be funny if the whole thing went wrong for everyone else and UKIP got about 15 seats there.

  40. Redbridge is well on its way to becoming the new Newham. Another borough spoilt thanks to Labour and their open borders.

  41. “Very much agreed, Eastenders does not represent Newham and Tower Hamlets in any shape of form. Its more demographically like places further up the central line like Hainult.”

    When Eastenders started in 1985 it was probably representative of the local demographics.

    Has anyone ever calculated a demographic breakdown of the Eastenders characters and compared it to reality?

  42. I asked the Z1 question as I thought it might be quite competitive with UKIP doing better in the far out zones and Putney and Richmond where UKIP have no real support perhaps being able to compete with these seats.

  43. Lbernard, Newham has always been a poor borough. Though places like Ilford South, Mitcham and Morden, Croydon North, Edmonton, Feltham and Heston have declined heavily in recent years maybe due to partly what your talking about. Though it would be unfair to completley blame it on immigration. Normally its the town centres of these places that are the main cause. For example Kingston and Sutton are lot nicer than Croydon. Particulary due to the types of shops although Sutton is a typical clone town it has posh cafes like Pattisrie Valerie and posh sweet shops where the only other branches are in Central London, Richmond and Kingston. Also every suburb in Sutton has a Pizza Express. Croydon however doesn’t have the nice shops though East Croydon has a waitrose. It looks very run down and unkept and has a lit of temporary. Sadly Epsom High Street also looking very unkept too now as all the chain stores are in the Ashley Centre which despite still looking very 1980 is doing well leaving the once lovely high street looking very down at the heel.

  44. Sutton has got some pleasant areas but the town centre is a bit of a treeless planning disaster.

  45. Surrey Politics, you mention Edmonton as one of the places which has seen heavy decline. It’s also been said on here that neighbouring Enfield North – notably the eastern wards of it – appears to be going in a similar direction. Hence a lot of predictions that Labour will take it next year.

    I’ve read about the so called ‘Enfield Experiment’ the council has set in motion in an attempt to turn the borough around. How successful it will be is a whole different debate.

  46. The Enfield Experiment isn’t that relevant for our discussion. It’s not going to stop Enfield North from becoming a safe Labour seat. That’s the demographics more than anything.

    Certainly a Labour council wouldn’t “experiment” with anything that was likely to lose them votes.

  47. I suppose this thread is as good as any for a discussion about the London elections but I believe the seat is very untypical of London as a whole.
    Fascinated to know that Sutton has a PV. I’ve heard and read that the town centre is rough as……
    I can actually remember when there were a few quite posh shops in Croydon.

  48. “I believe the seat is very untypical of London as a whole.”

    This and Romford I’d say. Looking at the census findings for 2011, they’ve missed the same type of demographic change that has transformed nearby constituencies.

  49. SBJME19, Yes it does have one next to smiths, and yes it can be rough at night though not according to UKcrimestats website the town centres of Croydon and surprisingly Kingston and Epsom have higher crime figures.

  50. “This and Romford I’d say. Looking at the census findings for 2011, they’ve missed the same type of demographic change that has transformed nearby constituencies.”

    The same change is certainly happening, but from such a low base that there is still a very long way to go yet. Take a walk through Romford town centre and you will find it surprisingly multi-ethnic, though of course many people shopping there will be living in Ilford or Dagenham.

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