Hornchurch & Upminster

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27051 (49%)
Labour: 11103 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 1501 (2.7%)
BNP: 193 (0.3%)
Green: 1411 (2.6%)
UKIP: 13977 (25.3%)
MAJORITY: 13074 (23.7%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Havering council area.

Main population centres: Hornchurch, Upminster, Cranham, Harold Hill.

Profile: The most north-eastern seat in London, where the metropolis gives out to the green belt and open farmland around Upminster. It is mostly an affluent, middle-class residential area of owner-occupied housing, giving way to smaller villages like Noak Hill, though there is also a large LCC overspill estate at Harold Hill. The M25 passes through the seat (indeed, it is the only Greater London seat that includes significant area from outside the M25).

Politics: The seat was created in 2010 from the merger of the old Hornchurch and Upminster seats, pitting two Conservative MPs against one another for the selection. In the event Angela Watkinson was successful, leaving James Brokeshire to look for a seat elsewhere, ending up in Old Bexley and Sidcup. Both Hornchurch and Upminster were won by Labour in their 1997 landslide, but were swiftly won back by the Conservatives, the combined seat can be considered as very solidly Tory.


Current MP
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) Born 1941, Leytonstone. Educated at Wanstead County High School. Former council officer. Havering councillor 1994-1998, Essex councillor 1997-2001. First elected as MP for Upminster in 2001. Government whip 2010-2012. Made a DBE in 2012 for public and political service. She is a former member of the Monday Club, forced to resign in 2001 when Iain Duncan Smith ruled it was no longer compatible with membership of the Conservative party.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27469 (51%)
Lab: 11098 (21%)
LDem: 7426 (14%)
BNP: 3421 (6%)
Oth: 3976 (7%)
MAJ: 16371 (31%)
2005*
Con: 16820 (49%)
Lab: 10778 (31%)
LDem: 3128 (9%)
BNP: 1174 (3%)
Oth: 2777 (8%)
MAJ: 6042 (17%)
2001
Con: 15410 (46%)
Lab: 14169 (42%)
LDem: 3183 (9%)
UKIP: 1089 (3%)
MAJ: 1241 (4%)
1997
Con: 16315 (39%)
Lab: 19085 (46%)
LDem: 3919 (9%)
MAJ: 2770 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Upminster

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANGELA WATKINSON (Conservative) See above.
PAUL MCGEARY (Labour) Educated at Campion Grammar School and University of East London. Project manager. Havering councillor since 2010.
JONATHAN MITCHELL (Liberal Democrat)
LAWRENCE WEBB (UKIP) Former electrician. Havering councillor. Contested Hornchurch 2005, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010. Contested London region 2009, 2014 European elections. UKIP London mayor candidate 2012.
MELANIE COLLINS (Green) Retired health worker.
PAUL BORG (BNP)
Links
Comments - 244 Responses on “Hornchurch & Upminster”
  1. My comment was not entirely fair
    but there’s a degree of truth in it.

    Personally I think we’d get a big boost in votes if we speeded up our good polcies to spread home ownership –
    more useful than gay marriage.

  2. Though Angela Watkinson voted for gay marriage which I think shocked everyone – she said she had changed her mind about the issue

  3. did she say why she changed her mind

  4. I was surprised to hear that, but good for her.

  5. A Lib Dem revival must be possible here. Lots of Labour votes to win across, and the Tories have peaked in this area. There were loads of Liberal supporters here in 1974. It’ll be close – watch out for this one.

  6. clearly Gloy has fallen in love & now has a soulmate.

  7. Barnabys comment – lol 🙂

  8. Trying to work out what possessed Miriam to write the comment she did…

  9. ‘Trying to work out what possessed Miriam to write the comment she did…’

    My guess is that Miriam doesn’t exast and it’s another lame attempt by the James Joe Broughton yet again trying to bring discredit to his arch nemesis the Lib Dems

  10. maybe miriam is his wife lol

  11. It is actually even more extreme than most of the comments attributed to Mr Plopwell. Much of the time the comments purporting to come from that gentleman concern seats where there has at least been a serious LD presence; this is one of the worst seats for the party anywhere in the country. In fact, there were LD councillors in Harold Wood not that many years ago, but there sure ain’t going to be any for a long while if ever. The Alliance did get 2nd place here in the 80s but that happened in almost all seats won easily by the Tories at that time; amongst the very few exceptions were Brent North & Meriden.

  12. And Finchley was another exception.
    There must still have been several – Ilford North.
    But you’re right – safe Tory seats in 1983 rarely had Labour second – the Alliance came second in Birmingham Edgbaston aswell.

    The Tories gained Harold Wood off the Lib Dems in 2002, but I think one LD seat did return in 2006-10.

  13. JJB-

    Other exceptions (though you can question the extent which some of these were ‘safe’):

    1) Blackpool South (Tory majority 25.83%)
    2) Croydon Central (Tory majority 30.49%)
    3) Enfield North (Tory majority 23.8%)
    4) Gloucester (Tory majority 22.32%)
    5) Luton North (Tory majority 22.18%)
    6) Wolverhampton SW (Tory majority 23.12%)
    7) Mid Worcestershire (Tory majority 25.66%)
    8) Vale of Glamorgan (Tory majority 22.27%)
    9) Lancaster (Tory majority 25.41%)
    10) Waveney (Tory majority 24.37%)
    11) Wellingborough (Tory majority 22.92%)
    12) Meriden (Tory majority 28.30%).

    Very few seats with Tory majorities above 25% with labour in second.

  14. *extent to which

  15. LDs have really done themselves no favours here, nor have the Tories. A UKIP surge should be expected here.
    CON 44
    LAB 25
    UKIP 16
    LD 9
    GRN 3
    OTH 3

  16. not a bad effort but again I don’t think the Greens will do as well even as that. It may be that UKIP do a bit better than that & Labour a bit worse.

  17. “Havering Mayor Crosses the Floor to UKIP

    Today the Conservatives have lost overall control of Havering Council with the defection to UKIP of another three sitting councillors.”

    http://www.ukip.org/havering_mayor_crosses_the_floor_to_ukip

  18. Seems like Cameron hasn’t quite gotten over the worst of UKIP and their threat. Demographically Havering is the ripest borough in all of London for success next month.

    Luckily for the Tories the MP is far removed from the Cameroon wing of the party so it’s obviously a straightforward hold next year.

  19. I think UKIP will probably win some seats in Havering this year. I remain to be convinced they can do that in any other London boroughs though.

  20. The demographics/profile in many London boroughs are effectively a barrier to UKIP success. Either the BME vote is too high for them to make a breakthrough, City and West Central are too affluent and the trendy bohemian parts aren’t natural territory either.

    Havering is certainly the most fertile for success. After that parts of Bexley, parts of Bromley, possibly the more WC/LMC wards of Eltham, and maybe a few areas in Hillingdon.

  21. A few places in Hounslow might be okay for them as well.

  22. I remain to be convinced. I still think they’ll simply split the right-wing vote in the wards where they’re strongest & let Labour in. After all, Labour has a solid & gradually increasing ethnic minority vote in all the wards in the West of the borough, in fact everywhere in the borough except Chiswick.

  23. Neil – I think some Hillingdon wards have potential for UKIP too, though most definitely not in Hayes & Harlington (except to a certain extent W Drayton). Whether they can actually break through & win any is another matter. Bromley I think has less but Bexley maybe just about has the right demographics for them to pose a threat in some areas. Eltham I very much doubt.

  24. Hainault in Redbridge perhaps
    I would have thought if anything just here though

  25. Andy I disagree.

  26. Agreed. I think UKIP could get second place in a few safe LD wards in Sutton too. I think in areas like Eltham North and Lower Morden they are likely to solit the right and let Labour in.

  27. Yes possibly Sutton (who it will harm most remains to be seen – interesting if it actually helps the Conservatives as in some places in 2013).
    Hanworth Park isn’t their territory – I think they’ll be wiped out.

  28. I think UKIP may also take the very little Labour vote that is left in borough. Particulary St Helier as this side of the estate is still very WWC unlike the Merton parts. It could be the one borough in London where the Labour share of vote actually drops.

  29. I think that’s very unlikely. The last council elections took place on general election day when Labour sympathizers in Sutton would have been thinking of the close contests in the parliamentary seats (though one turned out not to be close). The coalition, and the obvious fact that the Tories have no chance whatsoever in certain wards such as St Helier & Wandle Valley, is likely to mean quite a significant improvement in the Labour vote at the expense largely of the LDs. However, I think it’s too much to ask for Labour to win any seats in that borough despite the party’s once considerable strength in St Helier in particular. And Labour are definitely working in their formerly strong wards. UKIP could benefit from some extension of their Euro-election strength but I can’t see them winning a council seat there either. Sutton will be a fairly clear LD hold though it could well be their only one in London; Kingston is bound to be close & any one of 3 results is more than possible (LD hold, Con gain or NOC).

  30. I think Labour will have a chance of taking Norbiton back so it could be NOC.

  31. We are working very hard in Norbiton & would be very surprised if we don’t at least get a split – Sheila Griffin is a former Labour councillor for the ward, lives there & must have a pretty strong vote which endured when she was briefly estranged from the Labour Party & stood as an independent in 2010, but she is now reinstalled as Labour candidate this year. It is however possible for Labour to win outright in Norbiton and the LDs still to squeak home narrowly in the borough as a whole – they have done in the past after all.

  32. “Tories have no chance whatsoever in certain wards such as St Helier & Wandle Valley”

    That’s very true, though the Tories have won or partially won similar outer london wards that have similar or even higher levels of deprivation.

    Cray Valley East & West – Bromley
    Gooshay’s – Havering
    Ruxley – Epsom and Ewell
    New Addington – Croydon

    just to name a few.

  33. Norbiton is pronounced Nobdon.

  34. Is that a joke? I get most of my information from reading so I never know how to pronounce unusual names.

  35. No-one I know in Kingston or have ever spoken to has pronounced it like that.

  36. The station sign was vandalised. Got it from that.

  37. Nonsense btw about the libs in sutton. We think we can decapitate them.

  38. Nonsense? The Tories ALWAYS think they can win Sutton. And they haven’t been anywhere near for donkeys’ years although they won a reasonably number of seats in 2006 at least.

  39. I suppose a combination of Labour gaining seats in the St Helier wards and the Tories and UKIP gaining a few seats each could just about turn Sutton NOC, though IMO it is unlikely. I do not believe there is any chance of the Tories being the largest party, let alone winning overall control.

  40. If the Tories have never taken Sutton in more favourable years I fail to understand how they are going to do so this year.

    In this seat I think UKIP will poll well. I’m not too sure whether they will win any new seats in Hornchurch or Upminster towns but may be able to win another on the Harold Hill estate.

  41. As the local elections are on the same day as the Euros I will say now that UKIP will win more council seats than the Lib Dems in London. If you look at the 2012 London Assembly ward breakdowns the Lib Dems are massively on the back foot in most of the wards they hold. The election will be a bloodbath for them in places like Sutton where UKIP will be competing with them, and in the likes of Camden, where I think they will lose all their seats.

    This prediction assumes that UKIP field candidates in all winnable wards for them though. Last year there were about 5 Lincolnshire wards that they would have won if they had found someone to put up as a candidate. This year UKIP are leafleting rather than just standing paper candidates so their threat has increased hugely at a local level. In my constituency we have been struggling to deal with UKIP becoming increasingly organised locally.

  42. I agree that the Lib Dems will still hold a significant number of seats in the boroughs you mentioned but I feel that UKIP will be able to extend beyond WWC estates this year due to the fact that the two elections are being held on one day. Remember that back in 2004 UKIP took 2 seats on the London Assembly when the GLA elections took place on the same day as the Euros. I do think that we could be in for a bit of a surprise next month and end up with a couple of councils where UKIP sneaks in as the largest party. I think the Conservatives will out poll UKIP for sure London-wide but not by a large enough margin to prevent UKIP beating the Conservatives in Havering and perhaps even Sutton. If you look at the ward by ward 2012 breakdown for Sutton the potential for UKIP to take a lot of seats from the Lib Dems if UKIP are on say 17-18% London-wide (assuming that many voters vote the same way in the Euros and the locals). If the UKIP vote is 3 times or so the amount it was in 2012 next month in Sutton then the Lib Dems will probably lose control and UKIP would take double digits in seats.

  43. Perhaps UKIP would overtake the tories in London if they were on 17-18% in London.

    However, the idea that UKIP will be on that in London is pure fantasy.

  44. in Sutton if they were on 17-18% in London*

  45. Even if UKIP outpoll the Tories in Sutton it doesn’t explain how they would get more seats than the Lib Dems Londonwide. The Lib Dem hotspots of Richmond, Kingston, Bermondsey, Hornsey and Bermondsey are generally unfavourable territory for UKIP and the majority of sitting Lib Dems will hold in these boroughs.

  46. How is it fantasy that UKIP will be on 17-18% in London in the European Parliament election next month? Anything below 15% would be a complete failure for them.

    I expect that UKIP will take somewhere between 5 and 10 seats in boroughs such as Croydon, Barnet, Hillingdon, Redbridge, etc with over 10 seats in a few London Boroughs, namely Havering and Sutton. They will not repeat this success in 2015 though.

    I think that the Lib Dems will be lucky to get 70 seats across their best areas. They face wipe outs in most London boroughs including some in which they have over 10 councillors (e.g. Camden and Islington).

  47. The problem with the Lib Dems in London is that most of the seats they have were not won by large margins in 2010. This will cost them dearly next month when they go up against Labour in Camden, Islington, Southwark etc.

    Richmond and Kingston are not favourable for UKIP but I think that many WWC voters there will leave the Lib Dems for them next month, allowing the Conservatives to benefit.

  48. The WWC barely exists in Richmond and is not a big factor in Kingston either.

  49. But there aren’t that many WWC voters in Richmond or Kingston. Certainly very few in the former aside from the area bordering Hounslow while the latter does have a fair few in places like Chessington and Tolworth. Even so, I don’t think LD-UKIP switchers in those places will be quite enough for the Tories to benefit significantly in those two boroughs.

  50. Touche.

    You’re right. UKIP doing well in Chessington and Tolworth would help the Lib Dems to hold their seats, which is counter to what 111 is arguing.

    Comparisons with 2004 ignore the massive demographic change there has been since then. At a rough guess the WWC has halved as a % of the Greater London electorate in that time.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)