Holborn & St Pancras

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12014 (21.9%)
Labour: 29062 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 3555 (6.5%)
Green: 7013 (12.8%)
UKIP: 2740 (5%)
Others: 533 (1%)
MAJORITY: 17048 (31%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Camden council area.

Main population centres: Holborn, Camden Town, Primrose Hill, Kentish Town, Highgate.

Profile: A long slim inner-city seat, stretching from the fringes of the City of London at Holborn, past the museums and university collages of Bloomsbury to St Pancras and King Cross station, still regarded as a grim red light district despite the regeneration that greeted the new Eurostar terminal at St Pancras. Northwards the seat covers the vibrant trendy areas like Camden Town with its market and music venues, the fashionable victorian terraces of Primrose Hill, the large council estates of Kentish Town and Maitland Park, Gospel Oak and the leafy affluence of Parliament Hill and Highgate. There are extremely high house prices here, but only around a quarter of the population are owner-occupiers, with most of the housing social housing or private rental.

Politics: Traditionally this has been a safe Labour seat and was retained by Labour throughout the 1980s. Almost half the housing is social housing and there is a significant Bangladeshi Muslim population. The more inner-city and southern part of the constituency is solidly Labour. The Greens have some strength in the seat and in 2015 it was contested by their party leader, Natalie Bennett

Current MP
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Former Director of Public Prosecutions. First elected as MP for Holborn & St Pancras in 2015. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
Past Results
Con: 11134 (20%)
Lab: 25198 (46%)
LDem: 15256 (28%)
GRN: 1480 (3%)
Oth: 1581 (3%)
MAJ: 9942 (18%)
Con: 6482 (19%)
Lab: 14857 (43%)
LDem: 10070 (29%)
GRN: 2798 (8%)
Oth: 152 (0%)
MAJ: 4787 (14%)
Con: 5258 (17%)
Lab: 16770 (54%)
LDem: 5595 (18%)
GRN: 1875 (6%)
Oth: 1631 (5%)
MAJ: 11175 (36%)
Con: 6804 (18%)
Lab: 24707 (65%)
LDem: 4750 (13%)
Oth: 946 (2%)
MAJ: 17903 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
WILL BLAIR (Conservative) Educated at Sherborne School and Oxford University. Associate director of a PR and Communications company.
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Barrister and former Director of Public Prosecutions. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
JILL FRASER (Liberal Democrat) Born Essex. Works in a chip shop. Camden councillor 2003-2012. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2005.
MAXINE SPENCER (UKIP) Born Hampstead. Full time carer. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010.
NATALIE BENNETT (Green) Born 1966, Australia. Educated at MLC School and Sydney University. Journalist. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010. Leader of the Green party since 2012.
DAVID O`SULLIVAN (Socialist Equality)
VANESSA HUDSON (Animal Welfare) Born Sheffield. Educated at Liverpool University. Media producer. Contested London 2014 European election.
Comments - 757 Responses on “Holborn & St Pancras”
  1. Can’t remember the origin of these numbers, but they struck me:

    Has the Labour Party improved under Keir Starmer?

    Yes: 34
    No: 4
    No difference: 35
    Don’t know: 27

  2. Okay, I’ve worded those options a bit badly, the poll question was better than that. But I remember the 34% better/4% worse split.

    On those numbers, the rump of Corbyn outriders are going to need a new grift. Aaron Bastani will be a Tory in ten years, you read it here first.

  3. Worth pointing out despite these numbers the Tories still lead

  4. They do, but Starmer is now leading Johnson on “best Prime Minister”. This may be a more reliable indicator than voting intention – it certainly was during the 2010-15 parliament, where Labour was ahead nearly the whole five years on voting intention, but Cameron consistently beat Miliband in the BPM stakes.

  5. It’s worth mentioning though it works the other way too. Thatcher trailed quite significantly on Best PM in the run up to 79. Also I think it should be said polls more often than not underestimate Tory support and overestimate Labour’s. It’s rarely the other way round. 2015 being one example of this 1992 another. 2017 I think was one of those rare occasions it was the other way around

  6. I suspect that, back in 1979, being a woman automatically stopped MT from looking Prime Ministerial to a large proportion of the electorate. Plus there may have been a bit of a rally round the flag during the Winter of Discontent.

    What is remarkable about Boris Johnson is that large parts of the electorate have been very patient with him. They have sympathised, they have been willing him to succeed – especially those that broke the habit of a lifetime to vote for him. And in spite of all this, his ratings have still collapsed.

  7. But the Tories still poll fairly well. Theresa May’s ratings were worse than Boris are now but the Tories polled just as well as they do now. I think too much is often attributed to leadership ratings imo. For Conservative voters in particular. I think I saw somewhere there have been more than 120 polls with the Tories +40 and in that time Boris personal ratings have peaked at +40 and fallen to minus numbers but their VIs have stayed solidly 40-50

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