Heywood & Middleton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9268 (19.1%)
Labour: 20926 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 1607 (3.3%)
Green: 1110 (2.3%)
UKIP: 15627 (32.2%)
MAJORITY: 5299 (10.9%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Rochdale council area.

Main population centres: Heywood, Middleton, Rochdale.

Profile: The seat covers some of the more affluent suburbs of Rochdale itself and the two neighbouring towns of Heywood and Middleton, both former mill towns that are now largerly residential, with mixtures of more affluent private developments and overspill council estates. In the north the seat stretches into the West Pennine moors and includes part of the Scout Moor Wind Farm, the largest onshore wind farm in England.

Politics: Heywood and Middleton has been held by the Labour party since its creation in 1983. There was a by-election here in 2014 following the death of Jim Dobbin on a Parliamentary trip abroad. The by-election was held the same day as the Clacton by-election which received much greater media attention, but in the event UKIP came incredibly close to winning this seat too, leaving it one of their prime targets in the north.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in LAB HOLD. For full details see here.

Current MP
LIZ MCINNES (Labour) Born 1959, Oldham. Educated at Hathershaw Comprehensive and Oxford University. Former biochemist. Rossendale councillor. First elected as MP for Heywood and Middleton in 2014 by-election.
Past Results
Con: 12528 (27%)
Lab: 18499 (40%)
LDem: 10474 (23%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
Oth: 1385 (3%)
MAJ: 5971 (13%)
Con: 8355 (21%)
Lab: 19438 (50%)
LDem: 7261 (19%)
BNP: 1855 (5%)
Oth: 2144 (5%)
MAJ: 11083 (28%)
Con: 10707 (28%)
Lab: 22377 (58%)
LDem: 4329 (11%)
Oth: 1366 (4%)
MAJ: 11670 (30%)
Con: 11637 (23%)
Lab: 29179 (58%)
LDem: 7908 (16%)
Oth: 750 (1%)
MAJ: 17542 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
IAIN GARTSIDE (Conservative)
LIZ MCINNES (Labour) See above.
ANTHONY SMITH (Liberal Democrat) Businessman. Contested Heywood and Middleton 2014 by-election.
JOHN BICKLEY (UKIP) Born 1953. Businessman. Contested Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election 2014, Heywood and Middleton by-election 2014.
ABI JACKSON (Green) Educated at Cardinal Langley High School and Huddersfield University. Contested Heywood and Middleton 2014 by-election.
Comments - 434 Responses on “Heywood & Middleton”
  1. Denis Coe, labour mp for middleton & prestwich from 1966 to 1970, and in fact the first-ever labour mp for the area, has died.

  2. Is this one of the few seats whereby UKIP could make a serious challenge against Labour – ?

  3. it looks like it. there are perhaps up to 4 or 5 others.

  4. I think this will be a straightforward Labour hold with the strong showing from UKIP in the by election unwinding significantly. Really, nothing to see here.

  5. Yes – a comfortable Labour hold by a big margin.

  6. Labour Hold. 8,000 majority. Tories 2nd.

  7. I don’t see the Tories beating UKIP here, because UKIP will surely not go below 11,000 votes. That said (and despite an uninspiring Labour candidate) the 2014 result is all the encouragement casual Labour supporters need to GOTV. They’ll hold very comfortably.

  8. Christ on a bike….the MP here just doesn’t have a clue about their challenge from UKIP. Was on Newsnight.

  9. There is a risk from UKIP here but I think they’ve possibly missed their chance of a really serious challenge to the constituency by failing to win any wards at the local level here.

    The only ward that was close for UKIP was North Heywood: Lab 38% UKIP 31% and Labour still managed at least 50% in a few wards.

    I’d argue only Hartlepool and Rother Valley are the only northern seats where Labour is in any real danger of a UKIP gain at the next election and they couldn’t even get 2nd place in Grimsby.

  10. “I’d argue only Hartlepool and Rother Valley are the only northern seats where Labour is in any real danger of a UKIP gain at the next election and they couldn’t even get 2nd place in Grimsby.”

    Hmmm . . . no wonder they say a week is a long time in politics, let alone a year.

  11. I still largely hold to this as UKIP is in even more crisis than Labour (look at all the stuff engulfing Steven Woolfe) and UKIP didn’t make any impact here in the local elections. They didn’t even stand candidates in some wards.

    It was a big leave vote but pretty much the same as Tameside and Oldham.

  12. UKIP are more or less permanently in crisis (if by this you mean infighting etc.) and it doesn’t seem to ever stop them reaching at least a certain level of votes. Now if Labour correspondingly LOSE a certain level of votes at the next election too, it could be interesting in a lot more places than Hartlepool and Rother Valley.

  13. I could see this yes, possibly.

    UKIP 19,411
    *Lab 19,355
    Con 9,782
    Green 1,343
    LD 1,033

    UKIP Gain from Lab
    Majority 56 0.1%

    Swing 5.5% Lab to UKIP

  14. Jim Callaghan is still alive. He’ll be 90 in January.

  15. Whoops. Someone’s forgotten to take his meds. Nurse!

  16. Yeah. ..what was that about?

    MPR – forgive me; have you sent the score yet?

  17. Are you ignoring me MPR or do you genuinely not understand my question?

  18. See pg 36 of WITNEY thread (re size of LAB maj in the BATLEY & SPEN BY ELECTION ) Cheers

  19. A very shrewd bet. I was also v.surprised at Labour’s enormous vote share.

  20. Are you going to pay up? Yes or no.

  21. Also Hartlepool. I think apart from that the list is complete.

    I suspect this is a much longer list than that of Tory seats where the combined left-of-centre vote is greater than 50%. Bath, Dumfriesshire C&T, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Gower, Lewes… any more?

  22. ‘Are you going to pay up? Yes or no.’

    Well I never – a Tory not paying his debts!


  23. More the fool you Deep Throat – you can’t expect a Young Conservative to honour a bet

    Pigs might fly next

  24. “More the fool you Deep Throat – you can’t expect a Young Conservative to honour a bet..”

    Yeah, he’s probably too busy kicking kittens and running over puppies to transfer the money.

  25. ‘but it certainly tells us all we need to know about him.’

    Especially as the money was going to charity

  26. ‘OUCA is actually a pretty sensible outfit these days.
    Most of our time is spent campaigning (in Oxford West, Witney, and marginals).
    Port & Policy is a perfectly civilised event nowadays, but with you’re [sic] head so far up your arse you wouldn’t be able to see that’

    OUCA was an almost entirely social affair in my time; the serious greasers were to be found at the Union so no doubt you will migrate there given time.

    ‘I don’t take wagers on an Internet forum srriously [sic] anyway’

    It seems you take them as seriously as everyone here will henceforth take you and your word.

  27. It still reflects badly on you if you’re refusing to honour a bet – especially for a good charitable cause.

  28. I do a get sense here of ‘finally, an excuse to give MPR a good online kicking!’. Do the rest of you (other than DT) honestly care about some whimsical bet that the vast majority of us weren’t even aware of? I think there’s another agenda frankly. I’m far from his biggest fan myself but this has all got a bit one sided.

  29. (Although that I have to admit that his gloating and crowing post EU vote was really irritating. He at least has the excuse of youth…not sure what excuse could be found for some of the more ‘advanced’ contributors).

  30. I was not aware you had Autism. I have found HH to be dismissive but it isn’t personal and mostly he’s very constructive in his contributions.

  31. With the greatest respect to HH he’s fairly dismissive of most things that he doesn’t think will happen, he’s normally one of the first to hold his hands up when he’s wrong though so credit to him for that.

  32. His shoulders must be aching after the last few years 🙂

  33. The Manchester Evening News report the Tories are hopeful they can gain here.
    Apparently through Labour did not think they were in trouble in this seat until the MRP came out due to a less negative doorstop to 2017. But Labour have now sent extra resources here and think they won’t lose it,

    MRP had Labour on 40% and Tories on 38%, but a 6% LD, 14% Brexit party and 3% Green vote for the parties to squeeze.

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