South West Hertfordshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32608 (56.9%)
Labour: 9345 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 5872 (10.3%)
Green: 2583 (4.5%)
UKIP: 6603 (11.5%)
Others: 256 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 23263 (40.6%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Hertfordshire. Most of the Three Rivers council area and part of the Dacorum council area.

Main population centres: Rickmansworth, Chorleywood, Berkhamsted, Tring, Bovingdon, Croxley Green, South Oxhey.

Profile: A long thin seat stretched up the western side of Hertfordshire, the southern part of the seat around Rickmansworth and Chorleywood is solid London suburbia, with more rural areas in the Chilterns area of outstanding natural beauty around Tring. South Oxhey is a GLC overspill council estate, but the rest of the constituency is solidly middle-class commuter land. The seat also contains the prominent public school the Merchant Taylors` School, HMP the Mount and the military headquarters facility at Northwood Headquarters.

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, held by the party since its creation in 1950.

Current MP
DAVID GAUKE (Conservative) Born 1971, Ipswich. Educated at Northgate High School and Oxford University. Former solicitor. Contested Brent East 2001. First elected as MP for Hertfordshire South West in 2005. Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury 2010-2014. Financial Secretary to the Treasury since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 30773 (54%)
Lab: 6526 (11%)
LDem: 15853 (28%)
UKIP: 1450 (3%)
Oth: 2148 (4%)
MAJ: 14920 (26%)
Con: 23494 (47%)
Lab: 10466 (21%)
LDem: 15021 (30%)
UKIP: 1107 (2%)
MAJ: 8473 (17%)
Con: 20933 (44%)
Lab: 12752 (27%)
LDem: 12431 (26%)
UKIP: 847 (2%)
Oth: 306 (1%)
MAJ: 8181 (17%)
Con: 25462 (46%)
Lab: 15441 (28%)
LDem: 12381 (22%)
Oth: 274 (0%)
MAJ: 10021 (18%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
DAVID GAUKE (Conservative) See above.
NIGEL QUINTON (Liberal Democrat) Former Welwyn Hatfield councillor. Contested Hitchen and Harpenden 2010.
Comments - 19 Responses on “Hertfordshire South West”
  1. The Lib Dems seem to be hard to shift in the Three Rivers District.
    They held it in 1988, as their opinion poll ratings fell (after the botched merger of the “Alliance”).
    Similarly, they have held it after 2010 despite poor opinion poll ratings and local elections overall.
    I think they’ve held it continiously for many years.

    Not sure why this is, because I think most of the County Council seats are Conservative in 2013.

    I think Three Rivers must have been created in 1973.
    There used to be a Rickmansworth district council.

    Labour did very well in this seat in 1992 to 2005 really. They must have had a fair scattering of votes in areas like Berkhamsted and Tring perhaps aswell.

    As Pete has pointed out on the old site, South Oxhey is almost completely different to all these areas.

  2. Sorry Andy, please could you remind me which threads you have posted the spreadsheets for Hertfordshire, and Essex on (for the CC 2013 results)?

  3. S Oxhey is almost entirely council-built. It has elected the BNP before but in common with almost everywhere else in Britain that party has now fallen back very sharply there.

  4. Joe:

    I can’t remember offhand but this is the page on the VoteUK discussion forum which has the links to all the spreadsheets:

  5. There was a phenomenal level of split voting in 2010 viz-a-viz the local/general election.

    Popular vote, Three Rivers district, 2010:

    LD: 19,403 (48.8%)
    Con: 17,367 (43.7%)
    Lab: 2,729 (6.9%)

    It’ll be interesting to see if the Tories can carry the popular vote this time around.

  6. Of course much of the district is joined on to Watford in urban terms & it’s the Croxley & Rickmansworth wards which are the LDs’ best in the district I think. A shame for the LDs that the areas included in the Watford parliamentary seat are a bit less good for them than that.

  7. My nominee for the greatest waste of Ministerial space in the Coalition Government gets a thorough doing over from Andrew Neil:

  8. Conservative Hold. 19,000 maj.

  9. David Gauke now enjoys the largest majority ever recorded in the history of this seat of 23, 263.

  10. David Gauke is Chief Sec to the Treasury – job he should have got last year.

    Not sure if Greg Hands is still going to have an attending cabinet role.

  11. David Guake is the new Work and Pensions Secretary.

  12. #Gauke

  13. Northchurch (Dacorum) result:

    LDEM: 59.2% (+40.4)
    CON: 28.2% (-32.1)
    LAB: 10.5% (-1.7)
    GRN: 2.1% (-6.6)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

  14. David Gauke is Facing a Vote of Confidence among Tory members here due to his opposition to no deal and apparent support for a customs union.

  15. He’s the last whipless MP to confirm he’s standing as an Ind.

    He was a sort of GO automaton as a DWP Minister so I can’t see him even holding his deposit (unlike Grive).

    It’ll certainly come as a shock to some of these overpromoted MPs when they discover what the public think of them in personal vote terms.

    This declaration will be Gawkward moment for him.

    The Bookies make Indys most likely to win in this order: Ashfield, East Devon, Birkenhead although none are favourites any longer. [Ashfield Inds have been but is now seen to be a 3 way as are 4 other seats]

  16. Just spotted that Gauke has said he’ll campaign for “centre ground values.”

    He’s even more pompous than I had thought.

  17. Presumably by calling on people to vote Lib Dem, he is urging people not to vote for him! Lol

    The reality is that his standing as an independent will only serve to ensure the Tories retain the seat even easier.
    The Lib dems performed fantastically well in parts of this seat in the local elections in May.
    It was always going to stay Tory in the general election but now thanks to Mr Gauke the majority will be bigger.

  18. Gauke is one of those behind the scenes ministers who do a good if uninspiring middle ranking job outside the limelight. There are too few such people in government. He is in favour of Boris’s deal so I can’t see the problem with giving him the whip back. Clearly he is standing as an independent only for the payoff. This is another of those seats where the Lib Dems have little chance under Swinson’s current approach.

  19. South West Hertfordshire, constituency voting intention:

    Con: 50% (-8)
    Lab: 17% (-9)
    Gauke: 16% (+16)
    Lib: 13% (+1)
    Green: 2% (-1)

    via DeltaPollUK
    21 – 26 Nov
    Changes with 2017,

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