South West Hertfordshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32608 (56.9%)
Labour: 9345 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 5872 (10.3%)
Green: 2583 (4.5%)
UKIP: 6603 (11.5%)
Others: 256 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 23263 (40.6%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Hertfordshire. Most of the Three Rivers council area and part of the Dacorum council area.

Main population centres: Rickmansworth, Chorleywood, Berkhamsted, Tring, Bovingdon, Croxley Green, South Oxhey.

Profile: A long thin seat stretched up the western side of Hertfordshire, the southern part of the seat around Rickmansworth and Chorleywood is solid London suburbia, with more rural areas in the Chilterns area of outstanding natural beauty around Tring. South Oxhey is a GLC overspill council estate, but the rest of the constituency is solidly middle-class commuter land. The seat also contains the prominent public school the Merchant Taylors` School, HMP the Mount and the military headquarters facility at Northwood Headquarters.

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, held by the party since its creation in 1950.

Current MP
DAVID GAUKE (Conservative) Born 1971, Ipswich. Educated at Northgate High School and Oxford University. Former solicitor. Contested Brent East 2001. First elected as MP for Hertfordshire South West in 2005. Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury 2010-2014. Financial Secretary to the Treasury since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 30773 (54%)
Lab: 6526 (11%)
LDem: 15853 (28%)
UKIP: 1450 (3%)
Oth: 2148 (4%)
MAJ: 14920 (26%)
Con: 23494 (47%)
Lab: 10466 (21%)
LDem: 15021 (30%)
UKIP: 1107 (2%)
MAJ: 8473 (17%)
Con: 20933 (44%)
Lab: 12752 (27%)
LDem: 12431 (26%)
UKIP: 847 (2%)
Oth: 306 (1%)
MAJ: 8181 (17%)
Con: 25462 (46%)
Lab: 15441 (28%)
LDem: 12381 (22%)
Oth: 274 (0%)
MAJ: 10021 (18%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
DAVID GAUKE (Conservative) See above.
NIGEL QUINTON (Liberal Democrat) Former Welwyn Hatfield councillor. Contested Hitchen and Harpenden 2010.
Comments - 14 Responses on “Hertfordshire South West”
  1. The Lib Dems seem to be hard to shift in the Three Rivers District.
    They held it in 1988, as their opinion poll ratings fell (after the botched merger of the “Alliance”).
    Similarly, they have held it after 2010 despite poor opinion poll ratings and local elections overall.
    I think they’ve held it continiously for many years.

    Not sure why this is, because I think most of the County Council seats are Conservative in 2013.

    I think Three Rivers must have been created in 1973.
    There used to be a Rickmansworth district council.

    Labour did very well in this seat in 1992 to 2005 really. They must have had a fair scattering of votes in areas like Berkhamsted and Tring perhaps aswell.

    As Pete has pointed out on the old site, South Oxhey is almost completely different to all these areas.

  2. Sorry Andy, please could you remind me which threads you have posted the spreadsheets for Hertfordshire, and Essex on (for the CC 2013 results)?

  3. S Oxhey is almost entirely council-built. It has elected the BNP before but in common with almost everywhere else in Britain that party has now fallen back very sharply there.

  4. Joe:

    I can’t remember offhand but this is the page on the VoteUK discussion forum which has the links to all the spreadsheets:

  5. There was a phenomenal level of split voting in 2010 viz-a-viz the local/general election.

    Popular vote, Three Rivers district, 2010:

    LD: 19,403 (48.8%)
    Con: 17,367 (43.7%)
    Lab: 2,729 (6.9%)

    It’ll be interesting to see if the Tories can carry the popular vote this time around.

  6. Of course much of the district is joined on to Watford in urban terms & it’s the Croxley & Rickmansworth wards which are the LDs’ best in the district I think. A shame for the LDs that the areas included in the Watford parliamentary seat are a bit less good for them than that.

  7. My nominee for the greatest waste of Ministerial space in the Coalition Government gets a thorough doing over from Andrew Neil:

  8. Conservative Hold. 19,000 maj.

  9. David Gauke now enjoys the largest majority ever recorded in the history of this seat of 23, 263.

  10. David Gauke is Chief Sec to the Treasury – job he should have got last year.

    Not sure if Greg Hands is still going to have an attending cabinet role.

  11. David Guake is the new Work and Pensions Secretary.

  12. #Gauke

  13. Northchurch (Dacorum) result:

    LDEM: 59.2% (+40.4)
    CON: 28.2% (-32.1)
    LAB: 10.5% (-1.7)
    GRN: 2.1% (-6.6)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

  14. David Gauke is Facing a Vote of Confidence among Tory members here due to his opposition to no deal and apparent support for a customs union.

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