Hendon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (49%)
Labour: 20604 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 1088 (2.2%)
Green: 1015 (2%)
UKIP: 2595 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 3724 (7.5%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barnet council area.

Main population centres: Hendon, Edgware, Mill Hill.

Profile: A north-west London seat in the borough of Barnet. It is an ethnically diverse seat, with around a third of residents describing themselves as non-white and one of the highest Jewish populations of any seat in the UK (largely in Edgware, which is almost half Jewish and is home to twelve synagogues). Equally the seat has economic contrasts, from the wealthy suburbs of Edgware and Mill Hill to council estates in Burnt Oak and Colindale. The seat also contains the Hendon Police College, the main training centre for the Metropolitan Police.

Politics: The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010, but the predecessor seat Hendon North was safely Conservative, represented by the semi-detached Conservative MP Sir John Gorst who along with Hugh Dykes had threatened to defy the whip and bring down the ailing Major government in an attempt to save the A&E department at Edgware hospital. The result in 2010 was one of the closest in the country and the defeated Labour MP Andrew Dismore initially threatened to seek an election petition due to claimed administrative failures at the election, but ultimately declined to do so quoting reasons of cost. In 2015 it was one of Labour`s easiest targets on paper, but one they failed to gain.


Current MP
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) Born 1969, Alton. Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton and Nottingham Trent University. Former BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough 2001. First elected as MP for Hendon in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19635 (42%)
Lab: 19529 (42%)
LDem: 5734 (12%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 518 (1%)
MAJ: 106 (0%)
2005*
Con: 15897 (38%)
Lab: 18596 (44%)
LDem: 5831 (14%)
GRN: 754 (2%)
Oth: 761 (2%)
MAJ: 2699 (6%)
2001
Con: 14015 (34%)
Lab: 21432 (52%)
LDem: 4724 (12%)
UKIP: 409 (1%)
Oth: 271 (1%)
MAJ: 7417 (18%)
1997
Con: 18528 (37%)
Lab: 24683 (49%)
LDem: 5427 (11%)
Oth: 420 (1%)
MAJ: 6155 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) See above.
ANDREW DISMORE (Labour) Born 1954, Bridlington. Educated at Bridlington Grammar and Warwick University. Solicitor. Westminster councillor 1982-1997. MP for Hendon 1997-2010.
ALASDAIR HILL (Liberal Democrat) Born Moray. Educated at Aberdeen university. Teacher.
RAYMOND SHAMASH (UKIP) Educated at Leeds University. Semi-retired dentist.
BEN SAMUEL (Green) Born 1986. Horiculturalist.
Links
Comments - 335 Responses on “Hendon”
  1. Courtesy of Golders Green & Garden Suburb, the Tories would have won Hendon South fairly comfortably. Ditto Labour would have won Hendon North comfortably with far fewer Tory votes to dilute their strength in Colindale & Burnt Oak.

  2. A lot of conservative attack billboards can be seen across Hendon.

  3. Hardly a surprise that this character has screwed up big time.

    More pertinently, UKIP appear to have installed an immediate replacement, one Raymond Shamash.

    Labour are massive favourites with electionforecast.co.uk (100% probability) and bookmakers (86%).

  4. How many UKIP candidates have fallen by the wayside now?!

  5. I read in the Evening Standard that Ed Milibands position on Palestine is proving difficult for Labour in their longshot of Finchley & Golders Green.

    If this is the case, could this also be problematic for Labour in Hendon that has a 17% Jewish population?

    On paper, this should be an easy Labour gain. Perhaps the Jewish electorate was strongly Tory here anyway while Labour may be making inroads elsewhere?

  6. Con gain 5000

  7. 69% of Jewish voters intend to vote Conservative, compared to just 22% for Labour according to a Survation poll for the Jewish Chronicle. Cameron enjoyed a 50% lead over Miliband on the Middle East and Israel. That’s a swing to Cons since 2010 and larger than Michael Howard enjoyed in 2005.

  8. “Con gain 5000”

    What seat are you talking about…this is already tory held, you …!

  9. It is a potential problem for Andrew Dismore, but it’s doubtful that it could cost him the seat. Labour has massive leads in 2 wards, a decent lead in a 3rd, and is competitive in a 4th. Needing such a small swing, he should be fine, though l know no chances are being taken. l go for Labour gain by a majority of about 2,000.

  10. the evening standard is incredible right wing especially when you have sarah sands one of the most partisan tory editors in the country influencing the publication.

    she will do everything in her power to get a tory majority and the evening standard will publish anything for a tory hold. her review of the finchley and golders green race was frankly a typcial divide and conquer tory hate line.

  11. I refuse to vote for people that are pro-war. In a world where Netanyahu says the greatest threat is an Iran that actually sticks to a possible nuclear agreement then it’s very dangerous to vote for a zionist.
    Above all else my greatest fear is nuclear war and it’s obvious Israel has an itchy trigger finger.
    There is no one on that list I can vote for except the libdem and, well, he’s a libdem…

  12. Lab gain , majority 4000.

  13. Offord was one of the most viciously anti-gay at the time of the same sex marriage debate. I think a lot of LGBT people and their families will remember that.

  14. The only reason I have to vote for Offord is because of that, Harry. I see the issue as a language problem. There should be a reorganisation and a redefinition of the situation of marriage and civil partnerships. There ought to be a boost and an equality in rights for those in civil partnership in which could reside a same sex union with equality in every legal way to a marriage. But the term and institutions of marriage should remain with idea of a man and a woman creating a social economic structure in which to procreate and raise children.
    This IS a language and legal issue not an anti-gay issue. To disassemble that is REgressive, not progressive.

  15. Evening Standard stanning for the Tories. There’s a surprise. Unfortunately because it’s free quite a few people read it.

    But even so, basic swing should sweep Hendon into the red column.

  16. Will there be a GLA By Election in Barnet & Camden or would MR D hang on in there until 2016?

  17. LAB gain 2750 for me

  18. Labour Gain. 5,000 maj

  19. Con 24,328
    Lab 20,604
    UKIP 2,595
    LD 1,088
    Green 1,015

    Bucks the outer London trend!

  20. You were all saying?

  21. A swing to the Conservatives of 3.5%.

    Difficult to reconcile this result with others in North London.

  22. The failure in Hendon must be bitterly disappointing. I guess we may have underestimated the demographics of this seat, as it’s obviously more than just Colindale or Burnt Oak. Labour managed to run Gavin Barwell close in Croydon C but that was generally viewed as a highly competitive race.

    This one is just staggering given how well Labour were meant to do (and did to some extent) in London.

  23. It looks like the middle-classes of Mill Hill, Edgware and Hendon turned out in force for the Conservatives. A truly excellent result for Mr Offord. Also well done to Bob Blackman who bucked the trend in Harrow East and managed 50% of the vote.

  24. In outer London the Conservatives seemed to do worse in the seats that were that bit lower on the social ladder: Enfield North, Ilford North, and to a point Croydon Central. By contrast they did rather better in Hendon (think Mill Hill, Edgware etc), Harrow East, and Finchley & Golders Green where there are more managerial/professional voters. Maybe I’m hair splitting but there might be something in it.

  25. Tory- I think that analysis is spot on. Of course, that the Tories do better in rather more ‘professional’ inclined seats should never be a surprise, but given that Labour were expected to do rather better across London, the trend was noticeable.

  26. It must be the case that the Tories did somewhat better with certain ethnic minorities in 2015 than 2010. The results here and in Finchley, Harrow, Enfield and Croydon make little sense otherwise.

  27. The Jewish Chronicle poll was right.

  28. What I think saved the Tories here is firstly the rather large Jewish vote but also I suspect that the two southern most wards namely Hendon and West Hendon are trending Conservative and I imagine that it is in these wards that there was the biggest strengthening in the Tory vote/weakening of the Labour vote compared to 2010. It can be seen on the local elections of 2014 how lacklustre the Labour performance was in these two wards despite a very good performance in London and the unpopularily of Barnet council. Gentrification may be beginning to take hold in the southern part of the seat (see the destruction of Sweets Way) which should keep the Tories competitive despite any future pro Labour demographic chances in other parts of the constituency.

  29. Two of the biggest reasons (imo) why CON held HENDON.

    1. WWC have abandoned Labour (to UKIP & CON)

    2. Asian, Black and minority ethnic people who are aspirational &/or hard working, increasingly abandoned Labour.

    This happened in HARROW EAST too.

  30. Tories are turning the corner in London. Even where we lost the vote share was up rather than down.

    I think it’s because ukip took away the more unsavoury elements and reputation of the party from many ethnic minority voters point of view.

    Harrow East shows that very well.

  31. Does anyone have the London-wide voting figures? The BBC did regional results in 2010, this time they haven’t. So much for progress…

  32. Joe- I don’t agree entirely. The Conservatives still underperformed rather badly in London relative to the rest of England. I don’t think seats like Ilford North and Enfield North are coming back and even Croydon Central was only held with a real struggle.

    However, I accept that:

    1. A chunk of inner London does appear to be moving towards the Conservatives. That means that seats like Putney and Battersea are becoming safe. It also means that the Conservatives are getting some help in ‘half way out’ seats like Hendon, Finchley & GG and even Brentford & Isleworth to a point, with pro-Tory trends in their ‘inner wards’ counterbalancing pro-Labour trends father out.

    2. The Conservatives *appear* to have made at least some progress with high income ethnic minority voters, which probably explains why they did considerably better in Harrow East and Hendon than they did in places like Enfield North and Ilford North.

  33. Yes: https://londondatastore-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/instant-atlas/general-election-2015/atlas.html

    Labour 1,545,080 (43.7%)
    Con 1,233,386 (34.9%)
    UKIP 286,946 (8.1%)
    LD 272,544 (7.7%)
    Gre 171,652 (4.9%)

    Not sure if those figures are correct though as the 2010 ones look wrong to me.

  34. So it looks like a 3.5% swing to Labour in London- way above average.

  35. Interesting that even Andrew Dismore, who I thought had a pretty personal vote as MP, was unable to make a difference.

  36. But in a place with a large transient population like London, can ‘personal votes’ really count for much? Especially if you have not been the MP for five years.

  37. Now that you put it that way, I suppose you’re right. Plus look at how many former Labour MPs who had a go in other (especially non-London) seats where they were meant to be popular pretty much failed to get elected.

  38. Joan Ryan appears to have been an exception to the rule, but Enfield North would appear to have been more down to the continuing demographic change affecting the seat politically in the long-term.

  39. “It must be the case that the Tories did somewhat better with certain ethnic minorities in 2015 than 2010. The results here and in Finchley, Harrow, Enfield and Croydon make little sense otherwise.”

    Finchley and Hendon have large Jewish populations the two Harrows have large Hindu populations.

    How well do you think Labour’s pandering to Muslim ‘community leaders’ went down with these communities.

    Croydon seems to have behaved electorally similarly to Ealing.

  40. The Conservatives obviously didn’t do anywhere near as well across London as they did overall, but there are plenty of encouraging signs for them- they made gains from the Lib Dems, and made further progress in vote share in many seats favourable to them demographically speaking also.

  41. Has anyone worked out yet the swings per London borough ?

  42. It’s rather sobering for Labour that the Tories held this seat easily — and that at the same time UKIP saved their deposit. That’s not a combination that seemed likely before the election.

  43. The UKIP candidate is Jewish unlike those of the other main parties. Don’t know about the Green candidate – he may well be too.

  44. Hi Barnaby
    Good to see you back, as I (and I am sure many others) used to enjoy reading your posts.
    As a generally Labour supporter (although I’ve always been a bit greenish!) the election result was a bit of a shocker to me too, although, as a resident of Ilford North, there was a crumb of comfort in the success of Wes Streeting!
    Ilford North used to have a large Jewish population, but I’m guessing maybe not so much now.
    Unfortunately in my opinion the rot started with Ken Livingstone and some particularly stupid comments he made – thankfully I see that Sadiq Khan has started building bridges now.

  45. l’m only back in terms of commenting on certain aspects of seats. l’m not going to comment on opinion polls or attempt to forecast constituencies. Promise. But thanks Simon.

  46. ‘It’s rather sobering for Labour that the Tories held this seat easily — and that at the same time UKIP saved their deposit. That’s not a combination that seemed likely before the election.’

    No it didn’t but Dismoore’s fate is similar to other former MOs who stood agauin – a larger than average swing against them

    As a general rule, electorates don’t re-elect candidates they have booted out

    ‘The UKIP candidate is Jewish unlike those of the other main parties. ‘

    Is Andrew Dismoore not Jewish?

    Like Matthew Offard he’s so pro-Israel I always assumed he was

  47. I don’t think Dismore or Offord are.

    The only way UKIP would have been able to save their deposit in a seat like this is by getting a significant number of votes from white working-class voters living on the council estates, and they’re the type of voters who probably would have voted Labour even in 1983 and 1987.

  48. Neither Dismore nor Offord are Jewish. But both are considered staunch friends of Israel.

    There is rather little WWC left. The poorer areas are pretty multi-ethnic these days (including Burnt Oak, that, while it may look similar to St Helier and Becontree, has been racially mixed much longer than those two estates). The wealthy areas are also quite racially mixed too, with a sizeable Indian community.

    Some of the Colindale estates are benefitting from regeneration at the moment which cannot have hurt the Conservative vote.

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