Hendon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (49%)
Labour: 20604 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 1088 (2.2%)
Green: 1015 (2%)
UKIP: 2595 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 3724 (7.5%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barnet council area.

Main population centres: Hendon, Edgware, Mill Hill.

Profile: A north-west London seat in the borough of Barnet. It is an ethnically diverse seat, with around a third of residents describing themselves as non-white and one of the highest Jewish populations of any seat in the UK (largely in Edgware, which is almost half Jewish and is home to twelve synagogues). Equally the seat has economic contrasts, from the wealthy suburbs of Edgware and Mill Hill to council estates in Burnt Oak and Colindale. The seat also contains the Hendon Police College, the main training centre for the Metropolitan Police.

Politics: The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010, but the predecessor seat Hendon North was safely Conservative, represented by the semi-detached Conservative MP Sir John Gorst who along with Hugh Dykes had threatened to defy the whip and bring down the ailing Major government in an attempt to save the A&E department at Edgware hospital. The result in 2010 was one of the closest in the country and the defeated Labour MP Andrew Dismore initially threatened to seek an election petition due to claimed administrative failures at the election, but ultimately declined to do so quoting reasons of cost. In 2015 it was one of Labour`s easiest targets on paper, but one they failed to gain.


Current MP
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) Born 1969, Alton. Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton and Nottingham Trent University. Former BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough 2001. First elected as MP for Hendon in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19635 (42%)
Lab: 19529 (42%)
LDem: 5734 (12%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 518 (1%)
MAJ: 106 (0%)
2005*
Con: 15897 (38%)
Lab: 18596 (44%)
LDem: 5831 (14%)
GRN: 754 (2%)
Oth: 761 (2%)
MAJ: 2699 (6%)
2001
Con: 14015 (34%)
Lab: 21432 (52%)
LDem: 4724 (12%)
UKIP: 409 (1%)
Oth: 271 (1%)
MAJ: 7417 (18%)
1997
Con: 18528 (37%)
Lab: 24683 (49%)
LDem: 5427 (11%)
Oth: 420 (1%)
MAJ: 6155 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) See above.
ANDREW DISMORE (Labour) Born 1954, Bridlington. Educated at Bridlington Grammar and Warwick University. Solicitor. Westminster councillor 1982-1997. MP for Hendon 1997-2010.
ALASDAIR HILL (Liberal Democrat) Born Moray. Educated at Aberdeen university. Teacher.
RAYMOND SHAMASH (UKIP) Educated at Leeds University. Semi-retired dentist.
BEN SAMUEL (Green) Born 1986. Horiculturalist.
Links
Comments - 335 Responses on “Hendon”
  1. I think we can claw a lead of about 5% – maybe even extend the lead.
    The trouble we have is Labour are very good at concentrating their vote and some people who hold views like that about the Eds will vote for them anyway for particular interests.
    There is not a national verdict about the 2 main parties – not even unity about the priority issues.

  2. Hi Pete – actually your view is close to mine. Though surely parity in seats is most likely to lead to some kind of Labour administration, so you belong in the first group?

    I’m sorry you hardly post here any more – the site really misses you.

  3. I think that it will be a very close national race next year with the Tories edging out Labour in the national vote share, but with Labour winning more seats than the Tories. I think that the national vote shares will be along these lines:

    CON: 32%
    LAB: 31%
    UKIP: 16%
    LD: 11%
    GRN: 3%
    SNP/PC: 3%
    OTH: 4%

    This all includes the Northern Irish parties, hence the high others figure.

  4. I expect that the prevailing opinion on here though is that UKIP will be 5% below that, with that 5% being added to the Labour and Tory columns.

  5. I don’t think UKIP in their wildest dreams expect to be as high as 16%, though personally I do now think they could scrape into double figures.

  6. My guess is they’ll retain 40-50% of their Euro vote share, putting them somewhere between 10-13%

  7. Well then we’re in a different ball game as discussed on N Kent threads recently.
    They might overhaul the LDs in share if that happens.

    Yes parity in seats would yield either a Labour Government or agreement between the 2 main parties that there has to be a second election as both are so far short of the numbers.

  8. Well at least I am not too far out from the consensus UKIP vote share anymore. I think that there is a good chance that they will poll between 10 and 13% though I reckon that UKIP will have a small poll bounce during the campaign if Farage is in the leaders debates (I think it would be difficult to include Clegg but not him). Yes Cleggmania never materialised but the Lib Dem vote seems to be much softer than the UKIP vote.

  9. I also think that the Conservatives will win the most votes but Labour will end up with the most seats. Might only be 5-10 seat difference between the two parties. I think UKIP will receive about 12% of the vote with the Lib Dems managing about 14%.

  10. Yes the debates are going to be interesting….perhaps there are so many questions about who to include that they won’t happen at all.

    The other issue about UKIP is where their vote will be distributed. If (as I expect) much of it is wasted on getting 20% vote shares in safe Tory and safe Labour seats, the impact might be more limited than at first glance. The key is how much the main parties can squeeze them in the marginals, and how well they do in their own 10-20 target seats.

  11. There was a report in one of the newspapers recently that there are a lot of people expecting Ed to be PM in May 2015 but almost all of them are Tories. Labour MPs are apparently rather gloomy about their prospects in private. I think it was the Sunday Times a couple of weeks ago.

  12. what happens to the ukip vote is one of the great unknowns. the consensus has shifted from 6-8% to about 10%, with Mike Smithson, again, being one of the first to notice that the UKIP VI, after hitting 16% on an average poll basis in May 2013, never went below 11%, again on an average.

    He noticed this in October 2013. I think. he is, of course, head and shoulders above most commentators and pundits in Britain.

    Of course, the longer they poll above 10%, the more like it is that they will get 10% in the actual General Election. What I find interesting, is that UKIP seem to time their run ups to polls really well, they peaked in May 2013 and fell back a bit; they peaked in May 2014, and are falling back a bit, but not quite as fast. It’ll be interesting to see if they hit another local peak in May 2015…. this is all very clearly seen in the wikipedia polls graph from 2010 to 2015

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#mediaviewer/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    From a chartists’ perspective (i.e a trader who follows charts and trades off them) the fact that labour’s vi is edging up a little is slightly ominous for the tories…If 34% is a floor for labour, beating them in terms of seats will be hard.

  13. I still dind the 10-13 figure hard to picture.
    Maybe it could go a lot higher in safer seats.

  14. While I am sure that UKIP will better their 2010 national vote by a considerable margin in 2015, I am still far from convinced that they will break the 10% barrier.

    In a close election – which 2015 may well be – and with the relentless publicity and exposure that an elongated election campaign will bring (we know the GE date now in a way that we didn’t in the past when there were no fixed term parliaments), I think the UKIP star will fade. It’s an odd parallel I know, but I am reminded of George Wallace’s bid for the US presidency in 1968. People were hugely disillusioned with the two main parties and Wallace’s campaign was based around the powerful slogan ‘send them a message’ meaning the political establishment. His message was also far more overtly racist than that of UKIP, but he ran an angry, rage filled and noisy campaign which gathered momentum and looked like it would expand well out of its southern heartlands and take America by storm in the late summer of 1968. However, as the election approached, his challenge faded under relentless scrutiny and he finished up with less than half the vote he might have expected several months previously.

    I think something of the same may happen to UKIP. No-one thinks they are going to form the next government and that is another factor that is likely to return wavering voters to the fold of the major parties as they consider how best to use their meagre and limited once-in-every-five-year voting ration.

  15. ……and so for those reasons, in the end, I would go for a UKIP vote of about 7-8% in the GE.

  16. I agree with Dr. John. Perhaps my consistent earlier predictions of 5-6% for UKIP will turn out to be unduly pessimistic, but I just can’t see them getting 10% in a GE. I will come on here and hold my hands up if I’m wrong.

    I still tend towards:

    Con: 33-35%
    Lab: 35-37%
    LD: 15-17%
    UKIP: 6-8%
    Green: 2%
    SNP: 2%
    Others: 3%

  17. I thought that was a Hendon prediction and got very confused. I suspect that puts the LDs too high, UKIP too low and gets the rest about right.

  18. I don’t think the LDs can get 15-17%.
    There is evidence of their vote collapsing to very low levels indeed outside their strongholds, in many seats.
    I think their share will be worse than 1979, with UKIP taking some of the protest votes.

  19. Those are some interesting remarks by Dr John. I don’t think you can really compare UKIP in Britain today with the old Dixicrats in America in the 60’s. We’re talking about two very different societies. In the American South in the 60’s they were still having to deal with unresolved issues regarding race that originated back to reconstruction and the abolishion of slavery a century beforehand. You simply can’t compare any race related issues in Britain today with those of the American South 50 years ago. And remember that George Wallace was a very controversial and outspoken man even by the standards of the time, especially during his first term as Govenor of Alabama. No matter how distasteful some of us might find Nigel Farages remarks about not wanting Romanians living next door, it hardly compares with Wallace standing in a school house door proclaiming ‘segregation now and forever’.

  20. If you want an international compassion of a party similar to UKIP, then look at the history of the Reform Party in Canada in the early 1990’s.

    Although please don’t get the impression I think the Tories will be reduced to just 2 seats at the next election cus that just isn’t going to happen.

  21. ADAM

    “Although please don’t get the impression I think the Tories will be reduced to just 2 seats at the next election cus that just isn’t going to happen.”

    We can still dream!

  22. It’s interesting to look back to the 1986 local elections here https://londondatastore-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/LBCE_1986-5-8.pdf

    The Conservative position hasn’t changed all that much in Edgware, Hendon, and West Hendon but has declined sharply everywhere else. Hale was a safe Conservative ward in 1986 and Mill Hill was ultra-safe. Labour’s lead in Colindale was noticeably smaller back then, Burnt Oak not so much.

    The Tories look like they’ve really underperformed in Mill Hill in recent years.

  23. Mill Hill was a Lib Dem ward for quite a long time. I’d be amazed if it wasn’t still very safely Tory in general elections.

    The key change in Colindale and Burnt Oak has been a WWC population, which was sometimes open to voting Conservative, has been supplanted by an ethnic minority vote which votes Labour come rain or shine.

    The Tories will surely have carried Colindale in 1987 and perhaps narrowly in 1992 as well.

  24. Hendon: LAB Gain from CON

    LAB: 37% (-5)
    CON: 37% (-5)
    UKIP: 15% (+13)
    LD: 5% (-7)
    GRN: 4% (+3)
    OTH: 2% (+1)

  25. Yes, Mill Hill went Lib Dem for a while in the 2000s. The Conservatives managed only 36.5% in 2014, though it was enough to see them over the line against split opposition (Labour got 22%). You may be right re general elections though I’d be surprised if the Conservatives still carried it as convincingly as they will have done in the Thatcher era.

    I’m not sure re Colindale. Labour carried it 46-28.5 in 1986. I certainly agree that the Conservatives will have been competitive there the following year. A far cry from today of course.

  26. The Tories won Hendon North by 56% to 25% (for Labour) in 1987. Their lead in 1986 was 43% to 32%. By my these calculations Colindale would have been something like 41% Con to 39% Lab in 1987 (ie. very close).

  27. Tory,

    fascinating look at the past with your link. shows how north london has changed totally. solid tory leads in Kingsbury and Queensbury which are much more marginal and more likely labour now. obviously there has been loads of demographic change….hendon i expect will go labour next may without too much fuss.

  28. I disagree with some of your predicted votes for 2015. Here’s how I see it happening.

    Conservative- 9,750,000
    Labour- 9,000,000
    UKIP- 2,750,000
    Liberal democrat- 1,500,000
    SNP- 1,000,000
    Green- 800,000
    DUP- 175,000
    Sinn fein- 160,000
    Plaid- 160,000
    SDLP- 115,000
    UCU- 95,000
    BNP- 80,000
    Alliance- 50,000
    TUV- 35,000
    Respect- 20,000
    TUSC- 20,000
    Scottish Green- 20,000
    Britain first- 17,500
    English democrats- 12,500
    National Front- 12,000
    Health concern- 10,000
    MK- 10,000
    Liberal- 10,000

    All parties above 10k votes. Enough detail for you?

  29. Oh FFS

    Are you sure you wouldn’t be better off posting on some autism self-help website?

  30. The UCU has dissolved since 2010 anyway.

  31. This seat like at least 20-30 others – one where the CON/UKIP/right wing split will hand LAB a win.

    Is it possible Nigel Farage will try a rapprochement between the Tories?? and UKIP & decide not to put candidates in seats where there’s a eurosceptic Tory??.

    He did this of course in Clacton and Rochester for GE2010 and has indicated in the past that he may do this nationally (in selected seats)

    Let’s look at 14 ‘eurosceptic’ CON MPs who defied a 3 line whip, in Oct2011, on a motion demanding an EU referendum in 2013 – so they are genuine eurosceptics (at least).

    They face losing their seats to LAB by small margins (predicted 4-10% because of a significant UKIP vote in the seat). These 14 MPs are:-

    ANDREW (PUDSEY)
    DE BOIS (ENFIELD N)
    BYLES (WARWICKSHIRE N)
    JACKSON (POSH)
    MCCARTNEY (COLNE VALLEY)
    MCCARTNEY (LINCOLN)
    MILLS (AMBER VALLEY)
    MOSLEY (CHESTER)
    NUTTALL (BURY N)
    OFFORD (HENDON)
    REES-MOGG (SOMERSET N EAST)
    REEVELL (DEWSBURY)
    VICKERS (CLEETHORPES)
    WALKER (WORCESTER

    So do you think Farage not fielding a UKIP candidate in these seats is:-

    a) very likely
    b) probable
    c) not very likely
    d) c’est impossible
    or
    e) horseshit

    ty…deepthroat

  32. Having had some involvement in this seat (as part of a minor party) I can tell you that the 2014 local elections analysis written is not entirely accurate. The local Labour Party ignored all the wards apart from Hale and West Hendon and took a gamble. They did not seem to try and turnout the vote elsehwere whilst the Conservatives seemed to run a general election dry run trying to turn out a vote in all wards – even Burnt Oak.

    It looked like Labour had sent all their activists to Chipping Barnet leaving the Hendon wards with a skeleton operation.

  33. Bens- yes and to be fair the Ashcroft poll does point to a straightforward Labour gain (and by 15%!) which suggests that the local election results provided the Conservatives with false hope. I have to say I would be astonished if Labour failed to win this.

  34. With such a swing here I wonder if Finchley could be in play? Of course this MP could have a negative personal vote.

  35. Changing demographics?

    Apparently Edgware and Mill Hill are fairly static while Burnt Oak and Colingdale can’t get any poorer. I assume that Hendon itself is changing significantly?

  36. I don’t think Hendon itself has changed much at all in demographic terms. Colindale in fact has probably seen the greatest demographic change in the constituency. Some way upthread H.Hemmelig reminded us that there was once quite a large Conservative vote in that ward, but now Labour is very nearly as strong there as in Burnt Oak, which is even more strongly Labour than it has been in the past, which is saying a lot (Labour managed, uniquely in Barnet, to survive in Burnt Oak even in the utter disaster year of 1968). In some ways what has happened here is a little reminiscent of the very different constituency of Westminster North. The Tory areas are still Tory, the Labour areas are still Labour, but with the exception of Edgware (where the Tories are stronger than ever) the intensity of Labour’s superiority has increased in 2 of their strongest wards. Labour also sharply improved in the rather volatile Hale ward this year; having lost the ward by quite a wide margin in 2010, this year they essentially drew level with the Tories. If Labour can tie this ward up with the Tories, they will be very hard to beat since they will be likely to amass too large a lead in the 3 Labour-held wards to be caught by the Tory lead, large though it still is, elsewhere. I remain of the opinion that Andrew Dismore’s candidacy for Labour will tend to moderate the Tory lead in Mill Hill, Edgware & Hendon, the 3 wards where the Jewish community is most numerous, though it’s also quite strong in parts of Hale ward.

  37. I don’t think Mill Hill is as Conservative as it was 30 years ago, Barnaby (unless there is heavy split-ticketing now).

    I agree very much with the rest of your post.

  38. You’re right actually. 1200-odd votes is pretty high for Labour in a local election in Mill Hill (unless it coincides with a general election as in 2010 of course). I’m not quite sure why this is. Certainly the Tories would want to be further ahead in that ward, although it for some years elected a split Con-LD ticket, and it does seem that quite a lot of the former LD vote has gone Labour. It’s a pretty high-income area and not really noted for “Hampstead socialist” or “Islington public sector” types, so it is rather surprising, and not very welcome from a Conservative point of view.

  39. Let’s hope they don’t hold the Hendon count in a tent this time.

  40. Did they? What was wrong with the old Town Hall in Hendon where Mrs T’s Finchley result used to be announced as well?

  41. What happended to Captain Buckethead?

  42. Imo, the funniest moment in GE history occurred when – during the declaration televised of course by BBC – .the Mayor of Huntingdon in all his splendour and with huge sobriety read out:
    “..votes were cast as follows:

    Birkhead, Deborah…846
    Buckethead, Lord….107….”

    If This was not comical enough, the BBC reporter whispered audibly the candidates party immediately after their name.

    So after “Birkhead, Deborah..”. .There was “GREEN” from the BBC reporter and then “GREMLOIDS” after “Buckethead, Lord..” .!!!

  43. Yes it was very funny indeed. The reactions on the candidates’ faces added to the humour of it all as well- The indifference of the Green candidate, contrasted sharply with the exuberance of Lord Buckethead!
    Also- COCKELL, Charles Seaton- (Forward To Mars)- 91 LOL!
    Then, MAJOR, John, 48 thousand WHOOO! CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP, and after that huge total, SECKLEMAN, Hugh Alexander, 12 thousand- YEAH! OH! WHOO! is heard in the background somewhere!

    The entire declaration of Major’s seat was a bit surreal I think in 1992!

  44. Surreal is right.
    I felt very sad to see again and remember one of UK politics and England’s great characters…the talented show off, the lovable…David Sutch.

    Major’s majority was massive. ..36,000 odd. was/is this a record?

  45. I think it was. I’ve just seen the declaration again and I couldn’t stop laughing at it all, particularly when Seckleman’s vote is announced, and the rapturous reaction of some of his supporters, followed by the amused look on the Natural Law candidate’s face! To make all of this decidedly all the more ironic, RE Major’s overwhelmingly colossal majority, David Dimbleby on the BBC’s coverage then referred to the Hayes and Harlington result, where Terry Dicks had only held on by 53 votes.

  46. Article which includes discussion of this constituency:

    http://50for15.com/2015/01/15/exploring-the-jewish-vote/

  47. I like Jeremy Zeid. His comments about Ilford were hugely accurate.

    Interesting article Andy. I suspect that whilst many of the Hendon Jews will stick with Offord, I suspect the growing Muslim population will push this over to Labour in May.

  48. It would be a disaster for Labour if they don’t take it, that’s for sure. They will probably do so, although the swing will be modest due to the factors already discussed on the thread.

  49. I assume that Labour would have just have held the old Hendon North in 2010 while the Conservatives would have just have held the old Hendon South in 1997.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)