Hendon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (49%)
Labour: 20604 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 1088 (2.2%)
Green: 1015 (2%)
UKIP: 2595 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 3724 (7.5%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barnet council area.

Main population centres: Hendon, Edgware, Mill Hill.

Profile: A north-west London seat in the borough of Barnet. It is an ethnically diverse seat, with around a third of residents describing themselves as non-white and one of the highest Jewish populations of any seat in the UK (largely in Edgware, which is almost half Jewish and is home to twelve synagogues). Equally the seat has economic contrasts, from the wealthy suburbs of Edgware and Mill Hill to council estates in Burnt Oak and Colindale. The seat also contains the Hendon Police College, the main training centre for the Metropolitan Police.

Politics: The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010, but the predecessor seat Hendon North was safely Conservative, represented by the semi-detached Conservative MP Sir John Gorst who along with Hugh Dykes had threatened to defy the whip and bring down the ailing Major government in an attempt to save the A&E department at Edgware hospital. The result in 2010 was one of the closest in the country and the defeated Labour MP Andrew Dismore initially threatened to seek an election petition due to claimed administrative failures at the election, but ultimately declined to do so quoting reasons of cost. In 2015 it was one of Labour`s easiest targets on paper, but one they failed to gain.


Current MP
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) Born 1969, Alton. Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton and Nottingham Trent University. Former BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough 2001. First elected as MP for Hendon in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19635 (42%)
Lab: 19529 (42%)
LDem: 5734 (12%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 518 (1%)
MAJ: 106 (0%)
2005*
Con: 15897 (38%)
Lab: 18596 (44%)
LDem: 5831 (14%)
GRN: 754 (2%)
Oth: 761 (2%)
MAJ: 2699 (6%)
2001
Con: 14015 (34%)
Lab: 21432 (52%)
LDem: 4724 (12%)
UKIP: 409 (1%)
Oth: 271 (1%)
MAJ: 7417 (18%)
1997
Con: 18528 (37%)
Lab: 24683 (49%)
LDem: 5427 (11%)
Oth: 420 (1%)
MAJ: 6155 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) See above.
ANDREW DISMORE (Labour) Born 1954, Bridlington. Educated at Bridlington Grammar and Warwick University. Solicitor. Westminster councillor 1982-1997. MP for Hendon 1997-2010.
ALASDAIR HILL (Liberal Democrat) Born Moray. Educated at Aberdeen university. Teacher.
RAYMOND SHAMASH (UKIP) Educated at Leeds University. Semi-retired dentist.
BEN SAMUEL (Green) Born 1986. Horiculturalist.
Links
Comments - 335 Responses on “Hendon”
  1. Barnaby – interesting, thanks. Btw re your above post, the NUM seem to hate Scargill now, after he tried to buy a house utilising Thatcher’s Right to Buy and get them to pay for it!

  2. I had no idea that Hendon had such a high proportion of black and Asian residents. Demographic figures like that make this seem like a seat that’s fast trending to Labour. Could it be a gain for them possibly next year?

  3. The number is by far highest in the 3 Labour-held wards. There is a feeling that the remaining white majority (both Jewish & non-Jewish) is above-averagely firm for the Tories, and that the swing will be lowish here. However, the swing required is of course a tiny one, and it would be quite a feat of escapology for Offord to hold on unless the Tories are well ahead of Labour come polling day.

  4. The majority is so tiny that Labour could probably afford to squeeze that 12% Lib Dem vote. Plus if UKIP votes takes even a small number of 2010 Tory votes, that would look like a Labour gain.

  5. I’d imagine there will be even less Jewish and White British residents here by 2015 which should give Labour a helping hand.

  6. I wish that you could fill in Jewish on the ethnicity question – I appreciate it is not strictly an ethnicity, but surely jews are more homogenous than say latinos. The religious question misses out jewish atheists.

  7. “Demographic figures like that make this seem like a seat that’s fast trending to Labour. Could it be a gain for them possibly next year?”

    “I’d imagine there will be even less Jewish and White British residents here by 2015 which should give Labour a helping hand.”

    I believe the remaining Tory vote here, and in many London seats, will be more stubborn than virtually anywhere else in the country.

    Because of the sheer tininess of the majority Labour should be favourites here, but it will still be very close. As Barnaby says, this is a very polarised seat and Labour have little strength beyond their core areas like Colindale and Burnt Oak. The GLA results, which I posted here ages ago, show a very resilient Tory core vote. The Lib Dems are relatively low here already and it’s not a seat UKIP will do well in so neither of those factors will help Labour or hurt the Tories much, respectively.

    Relating this to other seats we’ve been discussing recently, I believe Labour’s chance of gaining eg. Erewash is somewhat higher than this seat despite the bigger Tory majority.

  8. LBernard – not sure the Jewish population will decline all that quickly. A lot of the shops e.g. Kosher butchers on which religious Jews depend are in this area, and the main growth in the non-white population is in the parts of the constituency which have hardly any Jews in them. The number of white non-Jews could be set to decline more steeply though.

  9. Prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 42.5%
    Offord (Conservative)- 41.5%
    Liberal Democrats- 7%
    UKIP- 6%
    Green- 2%
    Others- 1%

  10. Not a bad guess. I’d be quite surprised if UKIP made it above 5% here. Their Jewish support will be close to zero, and the non-Jewish Tory voters here are likely to be more liberal and more professional than the norm.

  11. Another close-run thing on the cards here that’s for sure. Demographics in their favour mean that Labour will remain heavily competitive here, certainly more so than neighbouring Finchley and Golders Green.

  12. Well you say that but there are 3 Labour-held wards in that constituency too, and a little bit of Labour potential in parts of both Golders Green & Childs Hill wards too (both of which include parts of the Cricklewood community as well as that of Golders Green – not all of Golders Green is in Golders Green ward, perhaps surprisingly) – it’s only Finchley Church End & Garden Suburb wards which are hopeless in almost their entirety. I think that historically there continues to be a very slow, longterm demographic drift in favour of Labour in at least 2 of the 3 wards which they hold (E Finchley & W Finchley), and even in Golders Green the number of Asian voters is considerably higher than it was when I was young. I agree that the seat is a likely Conservative hold in 2015, but I can certainly see Labour winning it again in the future if the circumstances are good.

  13. “The cluster effect – and why Labour cannot count on ethnic minority voters any more
    By Trevor Phillips and Richard Webber

    Amongst the many surprises awaiting Ed Miliband’s new American strategist, David Axelrod, will be the discovery that the British political class knows almost nothing about the ethnic and cultural composition of their electors, and generally speaking cares even less. The consensus is that minority voters lean to Labour and undue attention to them will simply send white voters galloping off to UKIP.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10778081/Middle-class-ethnic-minority-voters-could-help-Tories-win-election.html

  14. There’s a stupid amount of wishful thinking going on on the BBC News election website, by suggesting that Labour could take overall control of Barnet, as well as Hammersmith and Fulham.

    I’m predicting the only changes in London will be:

    Kingston: Con gain from Lib Dem

    Croydon: Lab gain from Con

    Redbridge: Lab gain from NOC

    Havering: NOC gain from Con.

  15. Merton’s been mentioned on here a lot as another possible Labour gain. I haven’t followed the local situation there but which other wards do Labour need to win? Aren’t they controlling virtually all the wards that fall in Mitcham & Morden, or are there any outstanding ones which or even an odd ward in Wimbeldon constituency? I read that Tory councillors defected to UKIP so I don’t know if they’ll be able to hold, as Merton is hardly UKIP-central.

    Hammersmith & Fulham and Barnet are no where on Labour’s radar in terms of gains.

  16. EDIT: *Some* Tory councillors defected…

  17. Why is it wishful thinking? Its not outside the realm of possibility that Labour can win H&F and Barnet. In the latter the Tories have ran an abysmal campaign and have spent the last four years pissing off residents. There will be some shocks tomorrow when the dust settles.

  18. Labour have gained Merton and apparantley UKIP have won seats in Sutton. According to http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk

  19. Seems that wishful thinking came true! Labour have taken control of H&F with 12 gains. Barnet is one to watch now.

  20. Labour taking H & F is a disaster.

  21. Well it is now clear that Labour has fallen just one seat short of taking Barnet. Labour took E Barnet ward in its entirety from the Tories, but lost out in desperately close finishes against the Tories in Hale & Childs Hill (where the LDs lost all their seats to a mixture of Lab & Con). My conjecture that the Tories saved their bacon, or perhaps rather salt beef, by expelling Brian Coleman has been proved fractionally correct. The election in Colindale will result presumably in 3 Labour holds but the Tories have already passed the winning post as I understand it after the recounts.

  22. I made the mistake of believing the LDs when they said they’d been wiped out. This was not the case as they held one seat in Childs Hill. Labour narrowly failed to win a seat in that ward.

  23. I expect JJB will be particularly happy that the Conservatives maintained control as a result of gains from the LibDems.

    Together with the Richmond and Kingston results he might regard this year as an overall triumph for the London Conservatives.

  24. Barnaby

    I have a question which you better than anyone might be able to answer.

    Did EdM’s bacon sandwich photostunt cost Labour any Jewish votes or more likely firm up support for the Conservatives among Jewish voters?

    We all know that EdM isn’t religious but it seemed that it might have been an attempt to break from his background.

  25. Not being of a religious bent, I’m afraid I can’t answer that question. It could have lost more Muslim than Jewish votes of course……though certainly didn’t do any harm in Bradford which saw an almost total Respect collapse.

  26. The Conservatives are about 1400 ahead of Labour in this seat on aggregate votes without the Colindale result. If Colindale had voted on the day it would almost certainly have wiped out that lead but not by very much. COnservatives held up much better here than in the Chipping Barnet seat, remaining competitive in West Hendon, holding on to 2 seats in Hale and maintaining huge leads in Edgware and Hendon. This confirms what HH has been arguing that this is an extremely low swing seat due to its bifurcated nature and is not the surefire Labour gain that the small majority would suggest (just as, as it turned out, it was not the comfortable Tory gain in 2010 that many had expected). I would still tend to expect a Labour gain here, but nobody should be surprised if it doesn’t happen

  27. Richard, I don’t regard the results overall in London as a triumph – I don’t know why you keep trotting out this tedious line that I am only interested in one or two places in SW London (+ here)
    when that is not so…

    This seat has clearly remained very close though.
    I’m not sure that means the Tories are safer here in the General Election – it sometimes cuts both ways in London.

  28. The Tories currently hold a 1,403 vote lead in the wards comprising the Hendon constituency, but we’re waiting for the result of the delayed election in Colindale on 26th June. In 2010, with a general election turnout, Labour were ahead there by 2,084.

  29. The ward is generally comparable to Burnt Oak but a fraction less safe. On a turnout similar to that seen last week, it would probably have given Labour a lead of something in the region of 1,500 – 1,600. Of course, in a general election the Tory wards would be worked far harder by Labour (though obviously the reverse applies in Burnt Oak & Colindale) and I continue to maintain that Andrew Dismore is likely to perform quite a lot more strongly in Edgware, Hendon & Mill Hill, especially amongst Jewish voters, than Labour were able to in recent local elections – he still has a very strong profile in the Jewish community & although the Tories will clearly beat Labour in those wards, the lead is likely to be at least rather narrower than it was last week.

  30. Posted here because it’s the most marginal of the three Barnet seats. Barnet council might have to suspect all meetings for a month. The quotes on the page are mostly impenetrable council-speak but the gist is they’ve buggered up the political balance of the committees.

    http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/barnet_council_meetings_could_be_postponed_for_a_month_after_new_committee_system_found_to_be_flawed_1_3646391

  31. My insomnia has its uses – just heard the news on the Colindale result. As fully expected, Labour’s held onto all three seats with ease.

    This now means the Conservatives have a majority of just 1 on the council. With four years to go, and plenty of time for an interesting by-election or two, the story of Barnet may not be over yet.

  32. Labour have won a crushing victory in Colindale:

    Nagus NARENTHIRA (Labour Party Candidate) 2,190
    Gill SARGEANT (Labour Party Candidate) 2,088
    Zakia ZUBAIRI (Labour Party Candidate) 2,015
    Nneka AKWAEZE (Conservative Party Candidate) 501
    William NICHOLSON (Conservative Party Candidate) 466
    Golnar BOKAEI (Conservative Party Candidate) 420
    John BASKIN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 347
    Barry RYAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 309
    Khalid KHAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 268
    Daniel ESTERMANN (Liberal Democrat) 133
    Maggie CURATI (Green Party) 130
    Andrew NEWBY (Green Party) 114
    Francesco MARASCO (Green Party) 108
    Victor CORNEY (Liberal Democrat) 90
    Sabriye WARSAME (Liberal Democrat) 87

    LAB – 66.3% (+10.8)
    CON – 15.2% (-4.9)
    UKIP – 10.5% (+10.5)
    LDEM – 4.0% (-14.6)
    GRN – 3.9% (-1.8)

    This means Labour have carried the Hendon constituency in this year’s local elections by a margin of 286 votes, using top vote.

  33. Thanks Andy. What a set of interesting names!

  34. “The ward is generally comparable to Burnt Oak but a fraction less safe”

    I think that for quite a few elections now, Colindale has actually been slightly safer than Burnt Oak. This is no doubt a consequence of the fact that there is still a sizeable WWC vote in Burnt Oak while Colindale is the most heavily non-white ward in Barnet (only 23% White British in 2011 compared with 30% in Burnt Oak).
    As it happens (and at the risk of sounding like A Brown) my mother lived in and went to school in this ward in the 1950s (before moving out to Edgware) and my parents were married at the The Hyde URC. This was always a somewhat grotty area though not entirely so and was certainly not then the utter shit hole it has become now, though I do remember visting members of my extended family in Colindale in the 1970s and even then finding it an incredibly depressing place

  35. That seems a rather narrow margin for Hendon, given the Tories only scraped in there at the last GE.

  36. It is in a sense. This has been discussed before. The constituency seems to have divided into quite low-swing halves, with Edgware, Hendon & Mill Hill having very well-entrenched Tory majorities over Labour, but Burnt Oak & Colindale having very large Labour majorities. Hale is the most marginal ward, and that did swing quite a long way to Labour in last month’s elections, but the 3 mentioned above didn’t see all that much swing. W Hendon is safeish Labour (it hasn’t been lost in many decades) but still has a good-sized Tory vote. These figures will be of some concern for Labour, but many people expect the Tories to have their majorities in the safest wards limited by the renewed candidacy for Labour of Andrew Dismore. It’s asking a hell of a lot of the Tories to hang on to a majority as small as this; they would have had more of a chance had Labour not selected Dismore, who has an unusually good reputation amongst Jewish voters (not that Offord has a bad one), a crucial demographic in Edgware in particular but also very important in Hale, Mill Hill & Hendon wards, even to some extent in W Hendon. But yes, these figures make it clear that this gain is no walk in the park for Labour & will have to be fought for. I think it’ll be achieved though.

  37. Pete – I had a look at the 2010 Barnet council election results, and although Burnt Oak & Colindale are comparable, Labour was further ahead both numerically & in percentage terms in Burnt Oak than in Colindale. Maybe the reverse was true previously.

  38. This is true Barnaby. My assertion was not as empirically based as it should have been and was based more on my impression of the way that the two wards at first converged in their voting behaviour and have now come to the point whereby Colindale is indeed slightly safer. I have just checked the 2012 GLA results and on all three ballots Colindale produced a higher Labour share and a lower Conservative share than Burnt Oak so perhaps this is what was in my mind since I analysed those results in far more depth than I ever did the 2010 London borough results (the latter being sadly overshadowed by the general election).
    It was certainly historically the case that Burnt oak was very much safer for Labour than Colindale – still being held easily in 1968 for example while Colindale was won by the Tories. The Tories also came very close to winning Colindale in 1982 while Labour still outpolled them by 2 to 1 in Burnt Oak. On my notional results Colindale voted Tory in the 1983 and 1987 general elections while Burnt Oak remained firmly in the Labour column. The extent to which these wards have converged in their voting behaviour is certainly very marked therefore even if they had not quite got to the crossover point in the way I suggested.

  39. Ashcroft poll:
    Lab 49%
    Con 34%
    UKIP 9%
    LD 4%
    Green 2%

  40. Hendon will be a bloodbath for the tories. there’s on going demographic change in this part of london, so 5 years is practically a life time.

  41. Not so sure about that. Labour only obtained a very slim lead over the Tories in the local elections in the constituency. It would be interesting if there was a prompt in the poll for the identity of the Labour & Conservative candidates. I do find it hard to believe that the Tories can hold on to a seat where the swing needed is so minuscule, but I think the swing will be below average here.

  42. The funny thing about the Ashcroft poll is that it points to about 50 labour gains from the tories which, with abt. 10, labour gains from the tories is 60 total gains for labour….all the data is pointing to some kind of result with labour easily being the largest party.

    For two years, I have felt labour’s range to be about 300-330 seats at the next election…which is what a great deal of the polling suggests. the data is quite consistent about that.

  43. The polls published this week tend to suggest that there will be a bigger swing in the ultra-marginals than in the next tranche of seats, although with its very high UKIP potential maybe Great Yarmouth is not typical of the next tranche. I do continue, like Anthony, however, to urge caution when considering constituency polls to some extent. Not that I disagree with the verdict of any of those published yesterday, except perhaps S Thanet – I have had Great Yarmouth down as a Tory hold for some time.

  44. In about ten years time this seat might have a five figure Labour majority.

  45. “In about ten years time this seat might have a five figure Labour majority.”

    This would infer a rapit shift to Labour previously evident in Streatham, Brent North and Lewisham (East and West).

    I could see Labour advancing in some of the wards in this constituency significantly but not all.

    I could see this constituency being regained by Labour under the next Labour government and held by Labour under the return of a successive Conservative government.
    I think it could move from being a bell weather seat to being a Labour marginal but not a safe Labour seat.

  46. The Conservative future of this seat depends on whether the Jewish community continue to reside here or whether they continue their move northwards with more Labour leaning ethnic minorities taking their place. But for the next election it does look likely that Labour will win Hendon.

  47. The Ashcroft poll is pretty brutal here. I think London will be a poor showing for the tories next year…

    I think they will lose: Enfield North and Brentford & Isleworth
    I think could lose: Ealing Central, Croydon Central, Hendon, Harrow East (I did think this would be a tory hold, but looking at ashcroft’s hendon poll, i’m not so sure)….

    losing 6 seats in London would be a disaster for the blues…

  48. Fantasising about bloodbaths and disasters is a bit daft, on the basis of a constituency poll.

    No need to rival The Results in terms of hyperbole.

  49. just a graphic way of saying i see a labour majority of 3000+

    I also wanted to engage a debate about some of the other london seats…

    my calculation is that labour need to make 25 straight gains off the tories and 10 off the liberal democrats to be the largest party in the house of commons after may next year.

    If the win 6 off the tories in london, it’s practically game over.

  50. OK so I was a bit dramatic in the wording perhaps but you get my drift, demographically speaking this is clearly heading towards Labour long-term.

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