Hendon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (49%)
Labour: 20604 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 1088 (2.2%)
Green: 1015 (2%)
UKIP: 2595 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 3724 (7.5%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barnet council area.

Main population centres: Hendon, Edgware, Mill Hill.

Profile: A north-west London seat in the borough of Barnet. It is an ethnically diverse seat, with around a third of residents describing themselves as non-white and one of the highest Jewish populations of any seat in the UK (largely in Edgware, which is almost half Jewish and is home to twelve synagogues). Equally the seat has economic contrasts, from the wealthy suburbs of Edgware and Mill Hill to council estates in Burnt Oak and Colindale. The seat also contains the Hendon Police College, the main training centre for the Metropolitan Police.

Politics: The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010, but the predecessor seat Hendon North was safely Conservative, represented by the semi-detached Conservative MP Sir John Gorst who along with Hugh Dykes had threatened to defy the whip and bring down the ailing Major government in an attempt to save the A&E department at Edgware hospital. The result in 2010 was one of the closest in the country and the defeated Labour MP Andrew Dismore initially threatened to seek an election petition due to claimed administrative failures at the election, but ultimately declined to do so quoting reasons of cost. In 2015 it was one of Labour`s easiest targets on paper, but one they failed to gain.


Current MP
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) Born 1969, Alton. Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton and Nottingham Trent University. Former BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough 2001. First elected as MP for Hendon in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19635 (42%)
Lab: 19529 (42%)
LDem: 5734 (12%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 518 (1%)
MAJ: 106 (0%)
2005*
Con: 15897 (38%)
Lab: 18596 (44%)
LDem: 5831 (14%)
GRN: 754 (2%)
Oth: 761 (2%)
MAJ: 2699 (6%)
2001
Con: 14015 (34%)
Lab: 21432 (52%)
LDem: 4724 (12%)
UKIP: 409 (1%)
Oth: 271 (1%)
MAJ: 7417 (18%)
1997
Con: 18528 (37%)
Lab: 24683 (49%)
LDem: 5427 (11%)
Oth: 420 (1%)
MAJ: 6155 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATTHEW OFFORD (Conservative) See above.
ANDREW DISMORE (Labour) Born 1954, Bridlington. Educated at Bridlington Grammar and Warwick University. Solicitor. Westminster councillor 1982-1997. MP for Hendon 1997-2010.
ALASDAIR HILL (Liberal Democrat) Born Moray. Educated at Aberdeen university. Teacher.
RAYMOND SHAMASH (UKIP) Educated at Leeds University. Semi-retired dentist.
BEN SAMUEL (Green) Born 1986. Horiculturalist.
Links
Comments - 335 Responses on “Hendon”
  1. Dismal

    Utter rubbish on this thread.
    I always suspected this seat was moving the Tory way.

    Being decapitated twice may be technically impossible, but here the impossible was achieved.

  2. I think the West Hendon Estate was still about 90% Labour (Ballot box estimates).

    The residual LD vote in Mill Hill switched to the Tories.

  3. Talking to yourself again. Boring.

  4. “I always suspected this seat was moving the Tory way.”

    Several new developments are being built for young professionals in the Colindale part of this seat as it’s only a 20 minute tube ride to central London. I suspect most of these residents voted Tory.

  5. I’m not sure these new developments have that many voters yet.
    But this is probably one seat where there is not a long term Labour trend.
    This is one seat which will probably be reduced in a boundary review even with fewer seats. (although officially it will be from scratch).

  6. One London seat

  7. I wonder how good the Tories chances of winning the Barnet and Camden assembly seat back is? Obviously they are massively aided by Brian Coleman not being their candidate this time. Taking the 5 Barnet and Camden parliamentary constituencies (Hendon, Finchley, Chipping Barnet, Holborn and Hampstead), Labour was ahead by 1,144 votes in May. However Hampstead and Kilburn contains 3 Brent wards so taking then away I estimate the Tories would have won Barnet and Camden by approximately 2,000 votes. On balance they stand a fairly good chance though they could be sunk if the government is unpopular by May.

  8. I think the Tories will win it back. Firstly, in 2012 Tory councillors I know were privately suggesting we vote Labour to get rid of Brian Coleman. Secondly, Corbyn is bad for Labour in many places but a complete and utter disaster in Hendon and Finchley and GG, where even with Miliband as leader the Jewish community swung strongly to the Tories because of a perception that Labour weren’t as pro-Israel as they could have been. Though it may be unfair Khan, as a Muslim, is unlikely to go down well with this group either. Remember Jews tend to be very civic-minded people who can be relied on to turn out and vote and that for many the stance of politicians on Israel/Palestine in the number one political issue. Andrew Dismore may help a bit in Hendon – people know he’s pro-Israel and he has name recognition – but that didn’t really make much difference at the GE, and although he’s been the AM for four years people in the other parts of the seat are unlikely to know much about him.

  9. Frankly I don’t see why we need to give a flying fuck about Israel and Palestine, on either side of the argument, and I wish a politician would be brave enough to say so. If Muslims or Jews want to obsess about far away lands they should move there rather than infect our politics with vile prejudices. I realise I’d be a terrible politician 🙂

  10. @HH

    Even as somebody whose late father was a non-practicing Jew, and has a lot of Jewish family – including people involved in politics – I have a lot of sympathy with that view. The fact is Jews tend to take criticism of Israel as criticism of their religion/themselves, and I suppose Muslims see criticism/attacks on Palestine/Hamas in a similar light.

  11. ‘perception that Labour weren’t as pro-Israel as they could have been. Remember Jews tend to be very civic-minded people who can be relied on to turn out and vote and that for many the stance of politicians on Israel/Palestine in the number one political issue. ‘

    If you look at the amount of MPs from bith Labour and Tory that are Friends of Israel it says it all. More than half

    Politically the UK is staunchly pro-Israel – second only to America – as shown by the government’s refusal to even condemn the genocidal ethnic cleansing Israel was carrying out in Gaza in the summer of 2014

    Unlike America though – whether staunch support for Israel is almost just as strong amongst the gun-totting religious right than it ids the Jewish community – I don’t think the politician’s sympathy on this side of the Atlantic is shared by the British public as a whole, who are quite rightly sick and tired by the increasing brutality of both sides and their outright refusal to do the decent thing, all in the name of religion

  12. Excellent point. I’m continually shocked at the casual anti- Semitism that many people exhibit in Britain. As you say, British MP’s are proportionately rather more pro- Israel than the public at large.

  13. The FBU are claiming Matthew Offord shouted and made obscene hand gestures at a campaign truck supporting Andrew Dismore on Thursday. After he denied the accusation the driver made a formal complaint to the police and Offord is now being investigated under the Public Order Act.

  14. Mayoral result (excluding postal):

    Goldsmith 12351 49.6%
    Khan 8920 35.8%

    This one a particularly strong result for Goldsmith or, to be more precise, a poor one for Labour.

  15. Hendon CLP has tabled an emergency vote of no confidence in Corbyn.

  16. I sense shenanigans, usually these things have to be tabled a few days in advance. I know Sheffield Hallam CLP are preparing a motion in the opposite direction, though I’m not able to vote on that as it’s three days before I move into the seat.

  17. Hendon is fairly intact, losing Mill Hill to Chipping Barnet but gaining Church End and Golders Green from Finchley and GG. These changes would increase Offord’s majority to over 10,000.

    Notional (Electoral Calculus figures):

    CON 29459 (55.92%)
    LAB 18682 (35.46%)
    UKIP 2363 (4.49%)
    GRN 1126 (2.14%)
    LD 1051 (2.00%)

  18. I hadn’t realised the Finchley area is actually to be split.

  19. Yep Freer isn’t happy

  20. Anthony’s notional actually only puts the Tory majority in the new Hendon at 7000 or so, quite a bit less than the Electoral Calculus figures. But if these boundaries go through I still struggle to see how Labour would win it in just about any circumstances as their two safe wards in the seat (Burnt Oak and Colindale) will be easily outvoted by the four safe Tory wards in the proposed seat (Edgware, Hendon, Finchley Church End, Golders Green). I would be surprised if come the revised proposals FInchley Church End hasn’t been reunited with the rest of Finchley, however.

  21. Splitting Church End really does split the heart of the seat.

    If the Tories can gain the Finchley and Hampstead seat (as these are parts of London where they have polled relatively well in 2010 and 2015), then they won’t have come out of it badly though.

  22. Labour candidate for GE2017 is Mike Katz.

  23. Based on today’s London poll people will start talking about this seat. I would be astonished if the Conservatives don’t still end up increasing their majority. From social media I’ve seen no evidence at all of Labour seriously targeting and yesterday’s Jewish Chronicle poll suggested that group is still swinging big time to the Cons. Plus I suspect Labour outperformed here even in 2015, despite the swing to Con, thanks to Andrew Dismore re-standing.

  24. Jack Sheldon – Although you could be right considering the points you’ve mention plus the rapid regeneration of Colindale which has changed beyond recognaition over the past 6/7 years. However, just by visual observation I suspect Burnt Oak may swing it for Labour. It has gone from a outer London leafy suburb to a ‘rough-around-the-edges’ inner London-feeling town in the space of just over a decade. Many BME people have resided in this part of this seat over the last 10/15 years meaning this is by no means impossible for Labour to regain next next week I’d the latest Greater London

  25. I was wrong about the Conservatives increasing their majority here. But in the context of what else happened in London it was nonetheless one of the better Conservative results – bigger majority and considerably higher vote share than 2010.

  26. Yes a decent result in the circumstances- the same goes for Finchley & Golders Green and Harrow East.

  27. The Tories did well across Barnet although they very nearly lost Chipping Barnet- the fact that seat is now way more marginal than either Hendon or Finchley and Golders Green speaks volumes…

  28. Chipping Barnet was a truly awful result for the Tories.

  29. They held it but only just. I can only surmise that Mike Freer and Matthew Offord are both seen as stronger incumbents locally and that’s allowed them to not slip into three figure majority territory? Whatever the truth may be, if the Tories in Chipping Barnet don’t wake up now and start putting some work in, Theresa Villiers could be a big name casualty for a Portillo Moment at the next election.

  30. Tory,

    you are right. i was genuinely shocked by the Chipping Barnet result and, having been involved to a certain extent in north london politics in the 90s and naughties, I would never have believed that labour could get within 350 votes of winning. they got close n 1997 and 2001, but i didn’t expect them to be so close this year.

    presumably, very little campaigning took place in chipping barnet, given the battlegrounds of enfield north and others. think there must be a demographic element, as labour did very well here in 2015 too. this looks like a labour gain in a subsequent election…

  31. Chipping Barnet could now go right towards Labour while in the longterm both Hendon and Finchley and Golders Green get slightly better for the Tories?

  32. Hendon was quite close and the new boundaries for Finchley is notional labour

  33. Who knows? Maybe Labour are now perfectly poised to take all three at the next election now they’re so close?

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