Hemsworth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9694 (22.9%)
Labour: 21772 (51.3%)
Lib Dem: 1357 (3.2%)
UKIP: 8565 (20.2%)
Others: 1018 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 12078 (28.5%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
JON TRICKETT (Labour) Born 1950, Leeds. Educated at Roundhay Grammar School. Former builder and plumber. Leeds councillor 1984-96, Leader of Leeds Council 1989-1996. First elected as MP for Hemsworth in 1996 by-election. PPS to Peter Mandelson 1997-1998, PPS to Gordon Brown 2008-10. Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office 2010-2013, Shadow minister without Portfolio 2013-2015. Shadow Communities Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10662 (24%)
Lab: 20506 (47%)
LDem: 5667 (13%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Oth: 3946 (9%)
MAJ: 9844 (22%)
2005*
Con: 8149 (22%)
Lab: 21630 (59%)
LDem: 5766 (16%)
Oth: 1247 (3%)
MAJ: 13481 (37%)
2001
Con: 7400 (21%)
Lab: 23036 (65%)
LDem: 3990 (11%)
Oth: 801 (2%)
MAJ: 15636 (44%)
1997
Con: 8096 (18%)
Lab: 32088 (71%)
LDem: 4033 (9%)
MAJ: 23992 (53%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS PEARSON (Conservative)
JON TRICKETT (Labour) See above.
MARY MACQUEEN (Liberal Democrat)
STEVE ASHTON (UKIP)
MARTIN ROBERTS (Yorkshire First) Operations manager.
Links
Comments - 49 Responses on “Hemsworth”
  1. The Labour vote should get back above 50% here next time. It’s also probably worth noting that the Conservative vote here is currently 5.7% ahead of what it was in 1992. Is this another South Yorkshire ex-mining Labour seat that is perhaps trending slightly in their favour?

  2. Probably; the Wakefield council district in general seems to be doing so. There were some very encouraging results for the Tories there and if they lose the election in 2015 then they will probably be running the council by 2019

  3. Interesting Paul, that is certainly what I thought. This point was made on this seat on the old site but I’ll make it again- in the postwar period, this seat has had seven MPs, one of whom outlived not only his successor, but also the Labour MP after that.

  4. “Is this another South Yorkshire ex-mining Labour seat that is perhaps trending slightly in their favour?”

    Yes, but its in West Yorkshire.

  5. It’s easy to get confused given the seat’s profile though.

  6. This is Geoff Boycott’s home seat IIRC.

  7. It is. He comes from Fitzwilliam.

  8. Boycott comes from Fitzwilliam, a place which is a shithole to be admired by the afficionados of that genre.

    Fitzwilliam also has a connection to the 1979 general election. Anyone know what it is?

  9. Was it the first or last place in the UK that Thatcher or Callaghan visited during the campaign?

  10. No.

    Clue – ‘winter of discontent’.

  11. Was it the scene of the first of the earliest miner’s strikes?

  12. Prediction for 2015-
    Trickett (Labour)- 54%
    Conservative- 23%
    UKIP- 11%
    Liberal Democrats- 7%
    BNP- 5%

  13. My 2015 forecast here

    Lab 51
    UKIP 22
    Con 15
    LD 4
    Others 8

  14. As a native of Wakefield district I think predicting that the Tories could be running Wakefield Council within the next 10 years is somewhat unrealistic. True, the district swung massively to the Tories in the later Blair years and under Brown – especially in 2008, when they won 11 of the 21 wards to Labour’s 7. However, the balance of the council at present is Lab 52 Con 11, and some quick arithmetic makes it look likely that we will have an all-Labour council, or something very close to that after the elections this May (as it is likely Labour will win in every ward, having failed to take just one ward at the last elex in 2012).

    In my view it’s a shame Wakefield is heading to one-party dominance, but I agree that as a whole the district is going to very gradually become more marginal as the former mining generations die out and residents become more prosperous, combined with the perpetual national swing between the two main parties as time progresses.

    Do get back to me if you disagree!

  15. The current boundaries of the Wakefield constituency (as opposed to this as well Yvette Cooper’s seat) suggest a future Tory gain. Not in this decade but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if that went blue in the 2020s or 30s. Indeed it might be fertile ground for UKIP as well.

  16. Thats the first projection into the 2030s I have seen.. None of the current parties may even exist then..

  17. I thought that Wakefield S was beyond Labour even in a very good year?

  18. Before the Business Vote was abolished, the Conservatives had seats in the centre of cities like Manchester and Glasgow. But Antochian is right, the current parties may not even exist in twenty years’ time!

  19. Indeed, Frederic,especially if proportional representation comes about (it will inevitably come about sometime, as the growth of minor parties is splitting the votes of major parties to such an extent that none of the three major parties cannot rely on having a remotely democratic mandate). I suspect that in the future, the left of Labour may pair up with the moderate wing of the Green Party, the most leftwing Greens will team up with Left Unity, the centre-right part of Labour may team up with centrist liberals and form a new social-democratic-style party, the orange bookers will hook up with the remaining pro-EU conservatives,and the hard right members of the Conservatives (especially the MPs belonging to what I call the ‘Bone-head’ faction) may defect to UKIP (or what becomes of UKIP if Britain leaves the European Union).

  20. The 2-party hegemony of Labour & the Conservatives has lasted several generations now & there’s also a perfectly plausible possibility that it will be maintained for a long while yet.

  21. Geoffrey Boycott is UKIP and although fertile ground to UKIP they could do very well here

  22. Another of those safe Labour seats where UKIP might be able to take second place.

  23. I honestly can’t see UKIP taking second here. They may come close, but the Tory vote in Wakefield South is strong (it’s the only remaining ward in Wakefield district with all-Tory councillors) and pretty likely to turn out (many retired/older middle-aged people live in this upmarket, suburban ward which isn’t really part of Wakefield proper). There is plenty of underlying Tory strength in the villagey parts of the seat (Ackworth, Badsworth, Walton etc), on top of a few working-class Tory voters who are sure to have some representation here (South Elmsall, South Kirkby, Hemsworth itself). Jon Trickett’s incumbency will of course be kind to him, too. I appreciate I’m a bit light on hard evidence here but as a local I just don’t feel a second-place performance by UKIP in my waters in Hemsworth (unlike neighbouring NPC).

  24. UKIP came second in every ward it contested in the constituency except one, they polled over 1000 votes more than the conservatives across the Wakefield District despite only putting up 14 candidates to the Conservative 21.

  25. I predict UKIP to come 2nd here and also reduce Trickett’s majority of 9,844.

  26. This is one of about 45 English seats with no Conservative candidate so far.

  27. Wakfield council won’t be run by the Tories by 2020, if Labour win the next election. The red vote is still too solid, too culturally ingrained.
    However I think Labour could lose control. That would would be a significant moment, as it’s one of relatively few English councils where Labour has had an overall majoirty since it was created in the 70s.

  28. Having driven through this constituency this week it is noticeable how many new housing developments are being built.

  29. 85 days to go. Are the Conservative even going to put a candidate up?

  30. 65 days to go and there is yet to be a Conservative party candidate. Are they even going to put one up for Hemsworth?

  31. Of course they are. But they’re pretty much conceding that UKIP will come second by waiting so long IMO.

  32. Well who, and when Andy? Is it always left this long to leave it so late?

  33. in very unwinnable seats selections are quite often left to the last minute. sometimes even in winnable ones (e.g. hyndburn for the tories at the last election).

  34. “Well who, and when Andy? Is it always left this long to leave it so late?”

    The Tories haven’t selected candidates in about 20 other seats including Stockport and Sheffield Central.

  35. Thanks for the feedback guys … just thought candidates would have been selected by now.

  36. You can see how many candidates have been selected with my candidates’ spreadsheet:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0

  37. There is a mention of a Yorkshire First candidate standing in for this constituency, by the name of Martin Roberts. Was in today’s weekly local paper.

  38. You’d think the Tories would select here before somewhere like Cumbernauld or Airdrie but apparently not.

  39. Ackworth man Martin Roberts is standing here for Yorkshire First.

  40. Apparently a Chris Pearson is the Conservative candidate for Hemsworth. It’s on the Wikipedia page, so caution is needed of course.

  41. Labour should be aiming for 55%+ here really, not that it matters of course

  42. I’m still tipping UKIP to come 2nd and reduce the 9,844 majority.

  43. No Greens?

  44. Labour Hold. 15,000 majority.

  45. There’s an attempt by some left-wingers to persuade Jon Trickett to stand as a left-wing (or at least relatively left-wing) candidate for the leadership, since the choice in that contest is rather narrow. Most left-wingers are happier at the choice in the deputy leadership election, and will tend to back either Tom Watson or, in some cases, Angela Eagle. It’s a bit late in the day for Trickett to stand but l wouldn’t rule out a late entry into the race.

  46. Of course not all party members vote on politics alone. Dennis Skinner last time voted for David Millaband. That could only have been for electability or personality rather than politics.

  47. Is Trickett left wing? He was Peter Mandelson’s PPS, and seems to be quite Blue Labour in outlook. He published articles citing Labour’s poor performance with the C2DE demographic as the key reason for their last two election defeats.

  48. he is certainly making direct overtures to left-wingers at present, though some on the left doubt that he is a true left-winger.

  49. Yorkshire Int FC play home games here and are due to play the Isle of Man in their first ‘international’ match.

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