Hayes & Harlington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11143 (24.7%)
Labour: 26843 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 888 (2%)
Green: 794 (1.8%)
UKIP: 5388 (12%)
MAJORITY: 15700 (34.8%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Harlington, West Drayton, Hayes, Yeading.

Profile: A West London seat covering Heathrow airport, which is both the major source of employment and a major political issue, due to the threatened building of a third runway to the north of the existing airport in the area of Sipson and Harmondsworth (the site of the detention centre used for asylum seekers detained pending deportation from Heathrow). This is historically an industrial residential area, housing for those working on the railways and Grand Union canal and in the light industries that grew up in the 1920s and 30s, aviation and broadcasting. A majority of the population is from ethnic minorities and there are large Muslim and Sikh populations here.

Politics: This is normally a Labour seat - it was won by the Conservatives in 1983 after the defection of the previous Labour MP, Neville Sanderson, to the SDP and held by the Tory right-winger Terry Dicks (famously described by Tony Banks as a "pigs bladder on a stick") until 1997. Since 1997 it has returned to form as a safe Labour seat, represented by serial Labour rebel and left-wing ringleader John McDonnell.


Current MP
JOHN MCDONNELL (Labour) Born 1951, Liverpool. Educated at Great Yarmouth Grammar and Brunel University. Former trade union officer. Contested Hayes and Harlington 1992. GLC member for Hayes and Harlington 1981-1986. Deputy leader of the GLC from 1981-1985 until he felt out with Ken Livingstone due to his support for setting no rate in the face of government rate caps. First elected as MP for Hayes and Harlington in 1997. Shadow Chancellor since 2015. McDonnell was previously one of Labour`s most rebellious MPs, reliably opposing top-up fees, foundation hospitals, 90-day detention, the war in Iraq, the renewal of Trident. In 2007 he attempted to contest the Labour leadership but, despite persuading rival left wing candidate Michael Meacher to stand down in his favour, he was eventually unable to secure enough nominations to appear on the ballot paper. Upon the surprise election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader McDonnell was elevated to the position of Shadow Chancellor.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12553 (29%)
Lab: 23377 (55%)
LDem: 3726 (9%)
BNP: 1520 (4%)
Oth: 1461 (3%)
MAJ: 10824 (25%)
2005*
Con: 8162 (25%)
Lab: 19009 (59%)
LDem: 3174 (10%)
BNP: 830 (3%)
Oth: 1214 (4%)
MAJ: 10847 (33%)
2001
Con: 7813 (24%)
Lab: 21279 (66%)
LDem: 1958 (6%)
BNP: 705 (2%)
Oth: 648 (2%)
MAJ: 13466 (42%)
1997
Con: 11167 (27%)
Lab: 25458 (62%)
LDem: 3049 (7%)
Oth: 639 (2%)
MAJ: 14291 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
PEARL LEWIS (Conservative)
JOHN MCDONNELL (Labour) See above.
SATNAM KAUR KHALSA (Liberal Democrat) Contested Hayes and Harlington 2010.
CLIFF DIXON (UKIP) Contested Hayes and Harlington 2010 for English Democrats.
ALICK MUNRO (Green) Doctor.
Links
Comments - 527 Responses on “Hayes & Harlington”
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  1. Peter Crawford said he worked in the City and hence must be surrounded by Remoaners from wall to wall every day in the office. Too outnumbered there to be able to argue back, perhaps letting it all hang out in here is very therapeutic for him šŸ™‚ Same for Kieran W in academia. The very few Leavers I know personally who are well educated and in professional jobs tend to feel quite uncomfortable talking about it either socially or at work. Given that Brexit will dominate politics for a decade or more, it’s not possible to discuss politics at all without it looming in the background. Also even the government broadly admits it will cause difficulties for some years even if it turns out well in the end.

  2. Again ā€“ Not my post above ā€“ impersonator.
    Posted by
    Real Joe James B

  3. Random tidbit: according to YouGov, 47% of Labour voters don’t know who John McDonnell is.

    Say what you like about Ed Balls, but I’m sure his name recognition would have been a lot higher than that when he was Shadow Chancellor.

  4. ‘Say what you like about Ed Balls, but Iā€™m sure his name recognition would have been a lot higher than that when he was Shadow Chancellor.’

    but that’s not necessaily a good thing – as Ed Balls found out when he lost his seat

    A more lower profile candidate probably would have hung on

  5. John McDonnel has just described Winston Churchill as a villain (when asked if hero or villain) because of Tonypandy. Be interesting to see if this becomes a story

  6. Ross Greer the green MSP was attacking Churchill the other week, called him a ‘mass murderer’ and ‘white supremacist’.

    He debated the issue with Piers Morgan.

  7. Already been condemned by Nicholas Soames and Ian Austin.

  8. It’s the sort of question that a senior politician – especially one fairly close to the ultimate prize – ought to be swerving. The Left seem unwilling and/or incapable of this.

  9. It beggars belief that anyone on the Left would condemn the man who did more than any other to defeat one of the right-wing and evil regimes in history

    Churchill was indeed a white supremacist – buyt then so were most British politcians of his era

    As somebody who studied Chirchill, Greer and McDonnell are as misguided about the UK;s best PM as Boris Johnson, who bizarrely seems to think that were Churchill still alive he’d have a natural ally, when nothing could be further from the truth

  10. “Churchill was indeed a white supremacist ā€“ but then so were most British politicians of his era”

    The term white supremacist is a ludicrous exaggeration even in the context you have placed it. The KKK and the South African apartheid government were genuinely white supremacists. Churchill was no more supremacist than most people of his generation (remember he lived much longer than most people born in the 1870s). Issues of race were barely an issue at all in the UK at the time given our tiny non-white population, but certainly Churchill would not have supported any kind of domestic apartheid.

    John McDonnell is at least old enough to have an informed view on these things based on his experience of them but Ross Greer wasn’t even born when Thatcher was in office – that didn’t stop him referring to her as evil and calling for parties when she died.

  11. The term white supremacist is a ludicrous exaggeration even in the context you have placed it.

    You should have a read of Daniel Finkelstein’s leading article in yesterday’s The Times

    If half of what he said was right (which it is), Churchill was an unequivocal white supremacist – but as Finkelstein also says, and let’s remember he is Jewish, that doesn’t make Churchill any less a hero – and those of the Left slandering him should be disgusted with themselves, as should Boris Johnson who sees himself as a 21st century Churchill, which I’m sure has the great man turning in his grave

  12. Labour are floating plans to nationalise the banks:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47766134

    Credit to McDonnell – he’s become very good at making radical ideas sound fairly reasonable. From a policy perspective I am somewhat uneasy about where investment decisions go under this sort of scheme. The profit motive of the current system, for all it enables an elite few to become very rich, does at least incentivise investment in wealth-creating ventures. Replacing that with a political motive is a dangerous idea. A Labour government (and indeed a Tory government bound by Labour reforms) would be liable to throw money at terrible, loss-leading enterprises in order to win the votes of those running them. My concern is that a public finance system, could be just as cynically transactional as the current set-up, only with worse incentives for the decision makers.

  13. Critical as I am of Labour’s nationalisation policy, I can’t see any mention in that article that Labour would nationalise the likes of Barclays or HSBC. Short of just grabbing them, they couldn’t afford to in any case. A national bank is what NSI still officially is, nothing wrong with the concept unless a far left ultra government is at the helm using it for its own ends.

    IMO far more likely is that Corbyn would nationalise pension funds, probably the easiest way to get their hands on billions of short term dosh.

  14. This isn’t that radical. The Post Office already provide cash accounts no direct debits or standing orders. They were popular with people who could manage their own money on ESA and DLA. It was safe secure place for money to go in and the withdraw money to pay for bills at a pay point.

    This changed though when they introduced PIP which requires a bank account.

  15. Exactly my point.

    Though I do not think banking with a “national bank” will be very popular with the public if McDonnell makes it plain that he wants to use it to get his hands on the money.

    As a country our savings ratio is now appallingly low and most mainstream economists would welcome any incentive to improve that, but the aims of the Labour leadership seem to be to want even more spending hence even less saving.

  16. This could also be a solution to high street banking. Post Offices are suffering less than high street banks. Cash card accounts for people who still use high street banks could make life easier when the last of high street banks disappear

  17. McDonnell admits Labour will probably, “get a good kicking” tonight.

    That’s also what I’m hearing from parts of the NW. I think initially some Labour people were hopeful due to turnout figures, but sampling has apparently shown that Labour voters have not turned out ie they may be the reason for the fall in turnout in some boroughs.

  18. That’s been my prediction. Lab and Con down to their bare minimum tribal vote, BXP between 30-35%, Lib Dems doing a bit better than expected (perhaps 20-25%), Greens doing ok on about 10%. There really was no reason to vote Con or Lab this time so both could see their lowest shares ever in a national election.

  19. Probably.
    I did vote Labour but then I am still a member and i am not a great fan of a second referendum.

  20. @ Lancs

    Is this in line with polling or is Lab likely to be doing even worse (well I assume no worse than the final Yougov)?

    The fact that mostly any reduced turnout is coming from places in the North who are not that keen on any other party than Labour (apart from Farish right) suggests to me that definitely Labour vote is not turning out. Not clear if there are any clues on Tory vote.

  21. That seems so.

  22. Most people now expect Labour 3rd and Tories 4th.
    I have no idea of what reactions they could be – Labour reaction is more interesting than the Tories considering May has already gone and a no dealer winning the Tory leadership seems a forgone conclusion already.

  23. This is a dreadful result for the Tories but they have become pretty good at expectation management, and considering some polls had them trailing the Green Party, fourth place gets spun as “could have been worse” territory. Labour, on the other hand, have consistently marketed themselves as “the only party that can beat Farage”, so to end up not only nowhere near the Brexit Party but not even in second place will be a massive egg on their faces.

  24. Seemed clear from the turnout pattern coming out from Friday onwards that the LDs may have edged into 2nd nationally.

    Looks like an incredible result for the LDs in London e.g. they have won 15/18 wards in Camden and maybe even a majority of boroughs.

    I had assumed the only councils they may win are ones like Orkney, Shetland Richmond, Kingston, S Lakeland, St albans, Bath NES, Cambridge, Stockport but they may even win many other urban areas like e.g. Newcastle which we’ll know early on.

    Looks like their support in the north meanwhile has ovewhelmingly stayed home with a bit of leakage to the brexit party.

    Hard to see Labour getting more than 15% max the way things are going but hard to see how they could do much worse than an awful 3rd with the Con-BXP swing.

  25. The after reaction of this in labour will be fascinating – could easily cause just as much drama as the tory leadership election will bring.

  26. Labour will change approach after this.

    Talks with new Tory leader will be
    LAB:: “OK we agree to be REMAIN, if you promise us a General Election”

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