Hayes & Harlington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11143 (24.7%)
Labour: 26843 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 888 (2%)
Green: 794 (1.8%)
UKIP: 5388 (12%)
MAJORITY: 15700 (34.8%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Harlington, West Drayton, Hayes, Yeading.

Profile: A West London seat covering Heathrow airport, which is both the major source of employment and a major political issue, due to the threatened building of a third runway to the north of the existing airport in the area of Sipson and Harmondsworth (the site of the detention centre used for asylum seekers detained pending deportation from Heathrow). This is historically an industrial residential area, housing for those working on the railways and Grand Union canal and in the light industries that grew up in the 1920s and 30s, aviation and broadcasting. A majority of the population is from ethnic minorities and there are large Muslim and Sikh populations here.

Politics: This is normally a Labour seat - it was won by the Conservatives in 1983 after the defection of the previous Labour MP, Neville Sanderson, to the SDP and held by the Tory right-winger Terry Dicks (famously described by Tony Banks as a "pigs bladder on a stick") until 1997. Since 1997 it has returned to form as a safe Labour seat, represented by serial Labour rebel and left-wing ringleader John McDonnell.

Current MP
JOHN MCDONNELL (Labour) Born 1951, Liverpool. Educated at Great Yarmouth Grammar and Brunel University. Former trade union officer. Contested Hayes and Harlington 1992. GLC member for Hayes and Harlington 1981-1986. Deputy leader of the GLC from 1981-1985 until he felt out with Ken Livingstone due to his support for setting no rate in the face of government rate caps. First elected as MP for Hayes and Harlington in 1997. Shadow Chancellor since 2015. McDonnell was previously one of Labour`s most rebellious MPs, reliably opposing top-up fees, foundation hospitals, 90-day detention, the war in Iraq, the renewal of Trident. In 2007 he attempted to contest the Labour leadership but, despite persuading rival left wing candidate Michael Meacher to stand down in his favour, he was eventually unable to secure enough nominations to appear on the ballot paper. Upon the surprise election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader McDonnell was elevated to the position of Shadow Chancellor.
Past Results
Con: 12553 (29%)
Lab: 23377 (55%)
LDem: 3726 (9%)
BNP: 1520 (4%)
Oth: 1461 (3%)
MAJ: 10824 (25%)
Con: 8162 (25%)
Lab: 19009 (59%)
LDem: 3174 (10%)
BNP: 830 (3%)
Oth: 1214 (4%)
MAJ: 10847 (33%)
Con: 7813 (24%)
Lab: 21279 (66%)
LDem: 1958 (6%)
BNP: 705 (2%)
Oth: 648 (2%)
MAJ: 13466 (42%)
Con: 11167 (27%)
Lab: 25458 (62%)
LDem: 3049 (7%)
Oth: 639 (2%)
MAJ: 14291 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
PEARL LEWIS (Conservative)
JOHN MCDONNELL (Labour) See above.
SATNAM KAUR KHALSA (Liberal Democrat) Contested Hayes and Harlington 2010.
CLIFF DIXON (UKIP) Contested Hayes and Harlington 2010 for English Democrats.
ALICK MUNRO (Green) Doctor.
Comments - 533 Responses on “Hayes & Harlington”
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  1. The term white supremacist is a ludicrous exaggeration even in the context you have placed it.

    You should have a read of Daniel Finkelstein’s leading article in yesterday’s The Times

    If half of what he said was right (which it is), Churchill was an unequivocal white supremacist – but as Finkelstein also says, and let’s remember he is Jewish, that doesn’t make Churchill any less a hero – and those of the Left slandering him should be disgusted with themselves, as should Boris Johnson who sees himself as a 21st century Churchill, which I’m sure has the great man turning in his grave

  2. Labour are floating plans to nationalise the banks:


    Credit to McDonnell – he’s become very good at making radical ideas sound fairly reasonable. From a policy perspective I am somewhat uneasy about where investment decisions go under this sort of scheme. The profit motive of the current system, for all it enables an elite few to become very rich, does at least incentivise investment in wealth-creating ventures. Replacing that with a political motive is a dangerous idea. A Labour government (and indeed a Tory government bound by Labour reforms) would be liable to throw money at terrible, loss-leading enterprises in order to win the votes of those running them. My concern is that a public finance system, could be just as cynically transactional as the current set-up, only with worse incentives for the decision makers.

  3. Critical as I am of Labour’s nationalisation policy, I can’t see any mention in that article that Labour would nationalise the likes of Barclays or HSBC. Short of just grabbing them, they couldn’t afford to in any case. A national bank is what NSI still officially is, nothing wrong with the concept unless a far left ultra government is at the helm using it for its own ends.

    IMO far more likely is that Corbyn would nationalise pension funds, probably the easiest way to get their hands on billions of short term dosh.

  4. This isn’t that radical. The Post Office already provide cash accounts no direct debits or standing orders. They were popular with people who could manage their own money on ESA and DLA. It was safe secure place for money to go in and the withdraw money to pay for bills at a pay point.

    This changed though when they introduced PIP which requires a bank account.

  5. Exactly my point.

    Though I do not think banking with a “national bank” will be very popular with the public if McDonnell makes it plain that he wants to use it to get his hands on the money.

    As a country our savings ratio is now appallingly low and most mainstream economists would welcome any incentive to improve that, but the aims of the Labour leadership seem to be to want even more spending hence even less saving.

  6. This could also be a solution to high street banking. Post Offices are suffering less than high street banks. Cash card accounts for people who still use high street banks could make life easier when the last of high street banks disappear

  7. McDonnell admits Labour will probably, “get a good kicking” tonight.

    That’s also what I’m hearing from parts of the NW. I think initially some Labour people were hopeful due to turnout figures, but sampling has apparently shown that Labour voters have not turned out ie they may be the reason for the fall in turnout in some boroughs.

  8. That’s been my prediction. Lab and Con down to their bare minimum tribal vote, BXP between 30-35%, Lib Dems doing a bit better than expected (perhaps 20-25%), Greens doing ok on about 10%. There really was no reason to vote Con or Lab this time so both could see their lowest shares ever in a national election.

  9. Probably.
    I did vote Labour but then I am still a member and i am not a great fan of a second referendum.

  10. @ Lancs

    Is this in line with polling or is Lab likely to be doing even worse (well I assume no worse than the final Yougov)?

    The fact that mostly any reduced turnout is coming from places in the North who are not that keen on any other party than Labour (apart from Farish right) suggests to me that definitely Labour vote is not turning out. Not clear if there are any clues on Tory vote.

  11. That seems so.

  12. Most people now expect Labour 3rd and Tories 4th.
    I have no idea of what reactions they could be – Labour reaction is more interesting than the Tories considering May has already gone and a no dealer winning the Tory leadership seems a forgone conclusion already.

  13. This is a dreadful result for the Tories but they have become pretty good at expectation management, and considering some polls had them trailing the Green Party, fourth place gets spun as “could have been worse” territory. Labour, on the other hand, have consistently marketed themselves as “the only party that can beat Farage”, so to end up not only nowhere near the Brexit Party but not even in second place will be a massive egg on their faces.

  14. Seemed clear from the turnout pattern coming out from Friday onwards that the LDs may have edged into 2nd nationally.

    Looks like an incredible result for the LDs in London e.g. they have won 15/18 wards in Camden and maybe even a majority of boroughs.

    I had assumed the only councils they may win are ones like Orkney, Shetland Richmond, Kingston, S Lakeland, St albans, Bath NES, Cambridge, Stockport but they may even win many other urban areas like e.g. Newcastle which we’ll know early on.

    Looks like their support in the north meanwhile has ovewhelmingly stayed home with a bit of leakage to the brexit party.

    Hard to see Labour getting more than 15% max the way things are going but hard to see how they could do much worse than an awful 3rd with the Con-BXP swing.

  15. The after reaction of this in labour will be fascinating – could easily cause just as much drama as the tory leadership election will bring.

  16. Labour will change approach after this.

    Talks with new Tory leader will be
    LAB:: “OK we agree to be REMAIN, if you promise us a General Election”

  17. John McDonnel has announced that were he to ever become chancellor the Treasury would be split and many of the workforce relocated to the North of England.

  18. He would do well to consider the experience of Channel 4…90% of their staff chose redundancy rather than be relocated to Leeds, landing the taxpayer with a gigantic redundancy bill and a pretty impossible task of immediately recruiting a large number of replacement staff of equivalent skills.

    I don’t think his idea would work unless the whole government moved north as well…you couldn’t very easily have the government based in one place and the money based in another. I wonder if a Beijing-Shanghai solution to the UK might be workable in the very long term, with the government wholly based in another city up north while London remains the centre of private sector business.

  19. The USA and Australia are both a bit like China as well – The government (Including the Finance Ministry) based in one place but big business elsewhere.

  20. Nothing wrong with trying to break apart the revolving door between our financial and power centres. Splitting off the Treasury from the rest of government seems a bit strange, though.

  21. “The USA and Australia are both a bit like China as well – The government (Including the Finance Ministry) based in one place but big business elsewhere.”

    Australia’s financial sector is tiny though. I think if you didn’t have the Treasury next door to the City to keep an eye on it, it would be very dangerous.

    I’m a fan of regional rebalancing but McDonnell is thinking the wrong way round. The big challenge is incentivising the private sector to move out of London. The north is already hugely dependent on the public sector and shifting chunks of government up there will make it more so…what it needs is private sector investment.

  22. Regional rebalancing is a bit of a catch-22, though. The best way to enrich the north would be to encourage private investment, but the best way to attract private investment is to enrich the locals to make them more attractive customers for prospective businesses.

  23. You know how last week John McDonnell was all for local spending decisions to be made locally? Turns out that’s only the case when he agrees with those decisions; if he doesn’t he’ll go over the heads of local government.


    It’s only a true democracy when you like the outcome…

  24. I think this is good news personally.

    My mother in law is a cleaner and cook at her local school. It’s all now being outsourced. They used to get 10 hours of cleaning during half term now they don’t get any. They also used to get 40 hours of cleaning during the summer and now its gone down to 10. All the older members of staff have been told they can’t do overtime. They’ve all joined the union but it doesn’t sound like its done them alot of good. They should have the contract taken off them but they won’t.

    I was also talking to a Lib Dem who said if they take over our council they plan to take the contracts to remove the trees and maintain street lighting off Amey after they have caused such trouble for residents. I wouldn’t vote Lib Dem myself but Bollocks to Amey is appealing

  25. I don’t think outsourcing is that popular among the public in any industry which looks and feels like a public service.

  26. Ugh, my despair at British politics grows ever deeper:


    How is this any different to “lock her up”? Or the arrests of political opponents in Russia, Turkey etc?

  27. Wow. I hadn’t seen them till you posted them – the Scottish independence comments getting all the coverage.

  28. He might be referring to this:


    (130,000 excess deaths due to government austerity policy).

  29. Quite apart from the report being nonsensical, that headline doesn’t represent what even the IPPR said.

    Public health officials are hardly a group we need to fund more. I’m always amazed to discover how much is spent on them telling us how many portions of fruit to eat etc.

    Michael Buerk in the Radio Times says obesity etc are not public health issues, merely personal choice and he has a point. He goes on to point out that had eg those who die in their 50s – due to excess fat or alcohol – lived ’til their 80s, we would have a much worse problem.

  30. Both these things are true: the Tory welfare system is abhorrent and the IPPR has a history of using dodgy statistics. I doubt the 130k figure (which likely assumes a zero-death counterfactual) but that doesn’t make the real suffering that Universal Credit has caused any less disgusting.

    Gotta maintain my centrist dad brand…

  31. “Gotta maintain my centrist dad brand…”

    If you are a parent you hide it pretty well

  32. I wholly agree UC has been a failure, but I am frankly amazed that the Left blames the Right for this.

    I concede the Osborne cuts to UC are part of the problem – although even he had to U-turn over cuts to Tax Credits – but most of the problems [we receive as large a postbag re UC as MPs do] re no payments occur due to errors or omissions by the DWP or local councils or IT systems.

    Failures of the State don’t require more of the State. Serwotka’s PCS strikes merely showed that no-one actually missed the jobcentre staff who were universally regarded as woeful.

    Indeed, we followed a claimant – who appealed with the help of a pro bono lawyer – who won after the DWP admitted it had been writing to him omitting his flat number: therefore it isn’t surprising that he failed to receive their letter regarding an appointment.

    If the public sector ever admitted making mistakes, it’d solve a lot of these problems and save £ms in Court and Tribunal costs.

    The principle of UC remains admirable: it’s just a shame “the system” can’t cope with eg self-employed people or the fact that there are 5 weeks in some months of the year!

  33. Administrative mistakes are inevitable. But what is needed in cases of state cock-ups is for the benefit of the doubt to be given to claimants. Not “sorry we cocked up, but your payment is still getting delayed even though you are literally starving”.

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