Harwich & North Essex

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24722 (51%)
Labour: 9548 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 3576 (7.4%)
Green: 2122 (4.4%)
UKIP: 8464 (17.5%)
MAJORITY: 15174 (31.3%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Essex. Part of the Colchester council area and part of the Tendring council area.

Main population centres: Harwich, West Mersea, Brightlingsea, Wivenhoe, Manningtree, Aldham, Chappel.

Profile: The seat mostly consists of the rural hinterland around Colchester (the seat stretches around and almost surrounds the Colchester seat). To the far east of the seat is the town of Harwich, a container and ferry port on the North Sea which is also the operational headquarters of Trinity House, the lighthouse authority for England and Wales. Other towns include the smaller ports of Brightlingsea and Wivenhoe, which is also the base of the University of Essex. To the south the seat includes Mersea Island, joined to the mainland by a causeway. Many of these town used to rely on fishing or shipmaking, but these days are more likely to be dormitories for Colchester commuters or coastal retirement destinations.

Politics: A safe Conservative seat - along with its effective predecessors North Essex and Colchester North it has been held by the Tory part since its creation in 1983.


Current MP
BERNARD JENKIN (Conservative) Born 1959, son of former cabinet minister Patrick Jenkin. Educated at Highgate School and Cambridge University. Former advisor to Legal and General. Contested Glasgow Central 1987. First elected as MP for Colchester North in 1992. PPS to Michael Forsyth 1995-1997, constitutional affairs spokesman 1997-1998, environment and transport spokesman 1998-1999, shadow minister for transport 1999-2001, shadow secretary of state for defence 2001-2003, spokesman for the regions 2003-2005, Deputy chairman of the Conservative party 2005-2006. During the Major government he was one of the few newly elected MPs prominent in the Maastricht rebellion. His wife, Baroness Jenkin of Kennington, is a former girlfriend of the screenwriter Richard Curtis and it is claimed that Curtis`s habit of naming a particularly put upon character `Bernard` in almost all his screenplays is either revenge upon or an in-joke with Bernard Jenkin.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23001 (47%)
Lab: 9774 (20%)
LDem: 11554 (24%)
UKIP: 2527 (5%)
Oth: 2144 (4%)
MAJ: 11447 (23%)
2005*
Con: 22811 (48%)
Lab: 11908 (25%)
LDem: 9831 (20%)
GRN: 1718 (4%)
Oth: 1691 (4%)
MAJ: 10903 (23%)
2001
Con: 21325 (47%)
Lab: 14139 (31%)
LDem: 7867 (18%)
UKIP: 1613 (4%)
MAJ: 7186 (16%)
1997
Con: 22480 (44%)
Lab: 17004 (33%)
LDem: 10028 (20%)
Oth: 1697 (3%)
MAJ: 5476 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Essex North

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BERNARD JENKIN (Conservative) See above.
EDWARD CARLSSON BROWNE (Labour) Historian.
DOMINIC GRAHAM (Liberal Democrat) Solicitor. Colchester councillor since 2014.
MARK HUGHES (UKIP) Financial advisor. Former North Hertfordshire councillor. Contested Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1992 for the Conservatives.
CHRISTOPHER FLOSSMAN (Green)
Links
Comments - No Responses on “Harwich & Essex North”
  1. A slight exaggeration. Several seats in Essex are almost certainly beyond UKIP : Chelmsford, Colchester, Braintree, Saffron Walden, Maldon come to mind.

  2. I know Chelmsford Conservatives pretty well. The council and association leadership, at least, has tended to come more from the moderate side of the party, and they seem to match the seat quite well (as does Simon Burns). Certainly UKIP hasn’t got a chance of winning Chelmsford.

    I would probably add Brentwood & Ongar to your list….to me the top 3 seats in Essex which have the littlest time for UKIP are Brentwood & Ongar, Saffron Walden and Chelmsford. You are probably right about Maldon, given that it incorporates the very wealthy south and east of Chelmsfors around Stock (Lord Hanningfield’s old ward). I don’t see why Braintree is much different to Witham. Colchester I don’t really know but its military and somewhat chavvy demographic would, I would have thought, be quite fertile for UKIP.

  3. Is there any chance of UKIP coming second here?

  4. Definitely IMO, if they poll 15%+ nationally.

  5. Remember Roger Lord? The guy who was selected as UKIP candidate for Clacton, then refused to play ball when Carswell defected? Well, oddly enough, just when UKIP were triumphing in Clacton, Lord’s former County Council seat here in Brightlingsea was gained by the Tories.

  6. Essex University must be a significant factor in Colchester demographics. No doubt, not the help for Bob Russell that it might once have been…

  7. UKIP 37% +32%
    *CON 37% -10%
    LAB 21% +1%
    GRN 4% +2%
    LD 1% -23%

    UKIP GAIN
    Swing 21%
    Maj 56

  8. Is that a joke? This area is too nice to appeal to UKIP I think. I reckon they might scrape second with some hard work.

    prediction for 2015-

    Con- 42%
    UKIP- 23%
    Lab- 22%
    Lib- 9%
    Green- 4%

    It also seems pretty unlikely that in 2015 the lib dems will fall to 1%. Yes their popularity has fallen but it’s been divided by three nationally, not twenty four.

  9. Sorry it was a joke. Couldn’t resist it. Shouldn’t switch the computer on after coming in from the pub.

  10. If that’s the craziest thing you’ve done while you were drunk you’re doing pretty damn good if you ask me.

  11. The Labour candidate for the by-election in Brightlingsea has a surname familiar to most contributors to this site.

  12. Did you see your favourite Lib Dem candidate Justine MacGuinness in the news last week Joe?

  13. I did yes. Congratulations Pete. I read that article about McGuinness – hilarious.

  14. UKIP will almost certainly come second here. The demographics are okish for them…but rural Essex is so Tory I can’t see them coming at all close to an upset.

  15. Good news. Simon Kershaw and I met with Edward Carlsson Browne this week and Simon is going to be out filming with him out canvassing in Wivenhoe and Harwich and even offered Simon a lift home afterwards so he wasn’t late for work so he could be with him for the wivenhoe canvassing. The George Medal can be awarded posthumously, but Simon wants to watch the political argument that wins seats elsewhere in the country, but not in Harwich, Essex at the end of the Mayflower line. Best of regards and many thanks. James Reymond. wommpomm.com

  16. My wife and I have been story voters all our voting lives (50) and voted to enter the EEC in the 70’s. Our vote was for the UK to trade with Europe not to be governed as if we were one of the United states of Europe. UKIP talk a lot of sense in my opinion and we believe that at this time the UK would benefit from some kind of Tory/UKIP alliance. Therefore we will be voting UKIP in hope that they gain enough seats to make that happen

  17. Prediction-
    Jenkin (Conservative)- 43%
    Hughes (UKIP)- 25%
    Carlsson Browne (Labour)- 20%
    Graham (Lib Dem)- 9%
    Flossman (Green)- 3%

  18. I have always been a Labour voter and had planned to vote them again, however i am disgusted at the lack of effort that has been shown by the labor party in Harwich, i am also disgusted at the lack of all parties discussing the Armed Forces (for which i have served 28 years) i see more cuts on the horizon, i am disgrunteled and after a lifetime of support your Party has lost me Edward (as you have many) to UKIP i will not waste my vote and will use it to try and stop Cameron gaining a majority therfore Mr Hughes you have my Vote

  19. Conservative Hold. 10,000 maj.

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