Harrow East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24668 (50.3%)
Labour: 19911 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 1037 (2.1%)
Green: 846 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2333 (4.8%)
TUSC: 205 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4757 (9.7%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Harrow council area.

Main population centres: Stanmore, Kenton.

Profile: A suburban seat on the edge of London, this is mostly affluent, semi-detached suburbia - but a very ethnically diverse one. It is one of only twenty-five or so seats in the country where white people make up a minority of the population and has a large Asian population, mostly Indian and Hindu. It also has the sixth highest proportion of Jewish residents of any seat in the country. The Royal National Orthopedic hospital is situated to the north of the seat, alongside Stanmore Country Park.

Politics: Harrow East is a traditional marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, and has remained so despite the growing numbers of ethnic minority voters. It is unique in being a seat that has a majority of ethnic minority voters, but a Conservative Member of Parliament - a sign that the party does not struggle to quite the same extent with Hindu voters as it does with Muslim or black voters.


Current MP
BOB BLACKMAN (Conservative) Born 1956, Kensington. Educated at Preston Manor High School and Liverpool University. Former compliance manager for BT. Brent councillor 1986-2010, leader of Brent council 1991-96. Member of the London Assembly 2004-08. Contested Brent South 1992, Bedford & Kempston 1997, Brent North 2005. First elected as MP for Harrow East in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21435 (45%)
Lab: 18032 (38%)
LDem: 6850 (14%)
UKIP: 896 (2%)
Oth: 793 (2%)
MAJ: 3403 (7%)
2005*
Con: 18715 (37%)
Lab: 23445 (46%)
LDem: 7747 (15%)
UKIP: 916 (2%)
MAJ: 4730 (9%)
2001
Con: 15466 (32%)
Lab: 26590 (55%)
LDem: 6021 (13%)
MAJ: 11124 (23%)
1997
Con: 20189 (35%)
Lab: 29927 (53%)
LDem: 4697 (8%)
Oth: 635 (1%)
MAJ: 9738 (17%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BOB BLACKMAN (Conservative) See above.
UMA KUMARAN (Labour) Born London. Educated at Bentley Wood Girls School and Queen Mary University. Labour party group officer, Islington.
ROSS BARLOW (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Exeter University. Campaign manager.
AIDAN POWLESLAND (UKIP) Born 1960, Essex. Educated at Cambridge University.
EMMA WALLACE (Green) School librarian.
NANA ASANTE (TUSC) Born Ghana. Harrow councillor 2002-2014, originally elected for the Labour party.
Links
Comments - 336 Responses on “Harrow East”
  1. Harrow East Labour CLP have, rather surprisingly, endorsed Corbyn as Leader.

  2. A friend of mine tells me London Labour are worrying they’ll be left out in the party if Cooper or Burnham win, as if Burnham’s going to move the party HQ to Liverpool and make them all talk like Scousers. For some they want a London-based candidate, either Kendall or Corbyn.

  3. Like Foot or Ed Miliband.

    Lonon Labour members seem to have forgotten that they need to win in provincial England as well as London, and specifically provincial suburbia.

  4. History of this constituency:

    1945-1950

    Kenton; Stanmore North; Stanmore South; Wealdstone North; Wealdstone South; Harrow Weald (part)

    1945-1950: Frederick Skinnard, Labour

    1950-1955

    Kenton; Stanmore North; Stanmore South; Harrow Weald (part)

    1950-1955: Ian Harvey, Conservative

    1955-1983

    Belmont; Harrow Weald; Queensbury; Stanmore North; Stanmore South

    1955-1958: Ian Harvey, Conservative (resigned)
    1959-1966: Anthony Courtney, Conservative
    1966-1970: Roy Roebuck, Labour
    1970-1983: Hugh Dykes, Conservative

    1983-2010

    Canons; Centenary; Greenhill; Harrow Weald; Kenton East; Kenton West; Marlborough; Stanmore Park; Stanmore South; Wealdstone; Wemborough

    1983-1997: Hugh Dykes, Conservative
    1997-2010: Tony McNulty, Labour

    2010-present

    Belmont; Canons; Edgware; Harrow Weald; Kenton East; Kenton West; Queensbury; Stanmore Park; Wealdstone

    2010-present: Bob Blackman, Conservative

  5. @Maxim

    Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon also did, and Harrow West had 89%. Battersea and Tooting also had 89%. There may have been others too. Most of London has two-party politics on the same scale, if not more so, than the 1950s which is quite remarkable given the text book model of the two-party system collapsing.

  6. As both the Conservative and Labour leadership become more metropolitan in their mindset its possible that they’ll enjoy increasing support in London whilst becoming less popular in other areas.

  7. “How many other seats are there where Labour and Conservative got a combined vote share of 90%+?”

    I calculated this before when someone else asked the same question. To add to Jack Sheldon’s comment 16 of the top 17 seats on this metric are in London. The only interloper is Wirral West on 89.3%, where the local Conservative MP seems to have generated particular hostility. Outside London 5 of the next 6 are on Merseyside, or close to it. Birmingham Ladywood (86.4%) is the only one in the top 30 outside London & Merseyside.

  8. Oh and for fans of trivia the lowest combined share is 11.1% in Ross, Skye & Lochaber. The lowest in England was Norfolk North (41.1%).

  9. There were also quite a few English marginals outside London in which the Con+Lab shares rose to 80% or more in 2015- Pudsey, Warwick & Leamington, Elmet, Keighley, Bury North, Rossendale and Darwen, Blackpool North, Carlisle, Weaver Vale, Warrington South, Crewe & Nantwich, Lincoln, High Peak, Corby, Broxtowe, Sherwood, Ipswich, Waveney, Bedford (there may be more). Multi-party politics didn’t really present itself at constituency level in 2015.

  10. @Tory

    Your last sentence is the key point. The 2015 election was perhaps the most multi-party of all time at national level but the nature of FPTP means that really didn’t extend to local level. Virtually every competitive seat was competitive between two parties, not more. Thurrock was pretty much the only genuine three-way marginal in the end, with the third placed party squeezed in places like South Thanet and Berwickshire which looked like being three-way contests during the campaign.

  11. Mayoral result (excluding postal):

    Goldsmith 12388 49.21%
    Khan 8826 35.1%

    Considering this excludes postal this will almost certainly have been an even better result for Goldsmith in reality.

    The results here, and in Hendon on the other side of the Barnet/Harrow border were almost identical.

  12. Rudimentary calculations but I think the 2012 results were
    CON..10500
    LAB…..8600

    Perhaps JS could confirm.

    This suggests lead that CON vote has in HARROW East is growing.

  13. 2012 result in Harrow East was Johnson 10440 (48.8%), Livingstone 8516 (39.8%). So Zac did indeed outperform Boris in this seat.

  14. Possibly Hendon or Harrow West, though I haven’t checked the 2012 results for them. Might do later if I have a moment.

  15. I could see Uma Kumaran standing in Kenton in 2020 and Bob Blackman standing in the new Harrow North constituency. I could also see Mike Freer following Golders Green to the new Hampstead & Golders Green. Ironically, I could also see Tulip Siddiq leaving this seat for the new Labour marginal of Finchley & Southgate.

  16. Apart from Golders Green isn’t in Hampstead and Golders Green under these proposals!

    Harrow is a right mess and likely to be strongly contested by at least Thomas.

  17. Dalek, I think Barry Gardiner would prefer, Wembley & Harrow on the Hill, Gareth Thomas might go for Kenton, and from Conservatives it will be either Cllr Ameet Jogia or Anjana Patel for Kenton.

  18. Correction: Dalek Gareth Thomas might go for Harrow & Stanmore.

  19. I just noticed that on the revised estimates by Chris Hanretty this constituency narrowly voted for leave by 50.5%. Do people think this is accurate? Harrow borough was only remain by 54.6% so I guess it is very possible though I’d always assumed a fairly wealthy, multicultural seat would go for remain. I wonder which wards would have voted leave though?

    According to these estimates 16 London constituencies voted leave (the others being less surprising than this one):

    1.Dagenham and Rainham (69.9%)
    2.Hornchurch and Upminster (69.5%)
    3.Romford (67.8%)
    4.Bexleyheath and Crayford (65.0%)
    5.Old Bexley and Sidcup (63.2%)
    6.Barking (60.3%)
    7.Feltham and Heston (59.4%) (the model’s estimate not actual ward results)
    8.Hayes and Harlington (59.4%)
    9.Uxbridge and South Ruislip (56.4%)
    10.Carshalton and Wallington (56.3%)
    11.Orpington (56.0%)
    12.Erith and Thamesmead (54.3%)
    13.Eltham (52.8%) (the model’s estimate not actual ward results)
    14.Ilford North (52.6%)
    15.Sutton and Cheam (51.3%)
    16.Harrow East (50.5%)

    The estimate also puts leave within 2% in a further 6 which could have potentially been won given uncertainty in the model:
    17.Bromley and Chislehurst (49.8%)
    18.Chingford and Woodford Green (49.2%)
    19.Mitcham and Morden (49.1%)
    20.Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner (49.0%)
    21.Croydon Central (49.0%)
    22.Ealing North* (48.8%)

    *Ward data was released for Ealing North and it did vote remain.

  20. I would say that Sutton and Cheam and Harrow East narrowly voted remain, whilst Chingford and Woodford Green voted out. Otherwise that list is probably accurate.

    I can’t find an online source but a Labour activist said Sutton and Cheam narrowly voted remain. The more middle class parts of the borough are located in Sutton and Cheam.

    The Waltham Forest ward data would suggest that Chingford and Woodford Green voted out by around 53.5%

  21. A quick check of the ward data suggests Feltham and Heston was more like 56% than 59% Leave.

    Brentford & Isleworth produced pretty much the equal and opposite result meaning the overall Hounslow result was narrowly in favour of Remain (due to a larger number of votes cast in B&I than F&H).

  22. Cllr Mitzi Green, Labour councillor for Kenton E, has passed away after a long illness.

  23. RIP and commiserations to her family. A long and successful career.

    I’ve looked at the seat- Kenton East- – seems to be moving to the Tories. Was very much safe Lab until c. 10 yrs ago. I expect it to turn blue.

  24. This is a interesting by election on 20 April.

    It’ll be a small sign of to what extent Hindu/Indians are moving to the Tories. (The ward has a very large community of Gujarati Indians).

    I would be surprised if it doesn’t turn CON.

    ———————————————–

    2014:: Kenton East – results
    Candidate Party Votes %
    Niraj Dattani Labour 1695 16% Elected
    Aneka Shah Labour 1561 15% Elected
    Mitzi Green Labour 1550 15% Elected
    Anjana Patel Con 1310 13% Not elected
    Mandula Parmar Con 1200 12% Not elected
    Vaumini Amin Con 1178 11% ” ”
    3 INDEPENDENT LAB GROUP CANDIDATES GOT 4/5%

  25. CON gain in Kenton East in yesterday’s by-election (counted this morning):

    CON 52.3% (+15.3)
    LAB 44.8% (-4.1)
    LD 2.1% (+2.1)
    IND 1.8% (+1.8)

    That sort of swing would clearly be good enough to take Harrow West for the Tories.

  26. Conservatives have gained Kenton East

    Nitesh Vishram Hirani (Conservative) 1,585
    Nishit Patel (Labour) 1,328
    Annabel Charis Rebecca Croft (Liberal Democrat) 65
    Herbert Winford Crossman (Independent) 54

    Large swing – Labour must be worried about its clutch of London marginals.

  27. Surprised that my last comment is still under moderation and that there are no subsequent postings.

    Have I done something wrong?

  28. Cllr Kiran Ramchandni Harrow Labour Councillor & Cabinet Member for Policy & Performance is very likely to be next Labour candidate for Harrow East

  29. Cllr Kiran Ramchandni has confirmed she is not contesting the seat.

  30. Labour has selected Navin Shah member London Assembly for Brent & Harrow constituency.

    Navin Shah has served as a Harrow Councillor for Kenton East Ward from 1994-2014, Leader of Harrow Council from 2004 to 2006, and remained the Harrow Labour Group Leader until June 2008. He was 1st elected as member London Assembly in 2008.

  31. Certainly the selection of Navin Shah seems to be a good idea and one does wonder how he would have done vs Blackman 2 years ago.

    To declare “no chance” in Harrow West is careless. I would say it’s 5% in HARROW EAST and 25% in HARROW W.

  32. Had Navin Shah manged to gain this seat an historic first would have followed. A by election in the London Assembly as Navin intended to resign from the London Assembly if he had become an MP. Of course it could still happen as another election may happen before the next London assembly election and Navin will probably be the candidate again here. On a similar note Kemi Bandernoch resigned from the London assembly yesterday but as she was list member she is simply replaced by the next Tory on the list.

  33. BM11…you were wrong in assuming that Shah would get the nod. This is a AWS. It’s going to be fascinating to see who is on the shortlist. Will it be a “Centrist” or a Corbynite Leftie?

  34. (This is one of 70 seats where Lab will select a Parliamentary candidate in the next few weeks)

  35. “Will it be a “Centrist” or a Corbynite Leftie?”

    Perhaps more likely than either of those, is that it will be the former masquerading as the latter.

    “Centrist” is a term increasingly overused to the point of meaninglessness (following in the grand tradition of “neoliberal” and “virtue signalling”), but certainly there are no more Blairites rising up the ranks at this point – the only ones around are those whose credentials have already been irreversibly established. Those who can get away with pivoting to the left are pretty much all doing so, because that currently is the most effective way to oppose the Tories both in parliament and in the opinion polls, and also the only way they’ll ever get anywhere in the current Labour Party.

  36. Polltrroll is right when he says that many a former Blairite are now claiming they were always radical left wingers. Problem for many is with the advent of social media many of these people have left a digital trail that betrays them.

    I feel no sympathy for those people but what does somewhat perturb me is that the membership does seem to be broadly aware that there are many a died in the wool Blairite now claiming to be a long time Corbynista and from what mutterings I’m hearing there is something of an effort to get long time Momentum members selected so as to be sure of their leftie credentials rather than selecting what may on the face of it appear to be credible soft left candidate. This is only coming to pass cos of the Labour lefts present paranoia re the moderates past actions and it may result in some real fruitcakes being selected as PPC’s So just as Corbyn was the moderates Frankenstein monster they may yet deliver him a whole tranche of new leftie MP’s too.

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