Hampstead & Kilburn

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22839 (42.3%)
Labour: 23977 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 3039 (5.6%)
Green: 2387 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1532 (2.8%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 77 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1138 (2.1%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Parts of Camden and Brent council areas.

Main population centres: Hampstead, Kilburn, Kendal Rise.

Profile: Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia, although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area. Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. Gentrification is having its effect even here though and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.

Politics: Hampstead and Kilburn was created for the 2010 election, a cross borough seat based on the old Hampstead and Highgate seat of Glenda Jackson and the Brent East seat of Sarah Teather, who opted to fight the Brent Central seat instead. In 2010 the result was an extremely tight three-way finish between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat with Labour only winning by 42 votes. In 2015 the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed, but the battle between Labour and Conservative remained tight, with Tulip Siddiq winning by only two percent.


Current MP
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Former corporate communications executive. First elected as MP for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17290 (33%)
Lab: 17332 (33%)
LDem: 16491 (31%)
GRN: 759 (1%)
Oth: 950 (2%)
MAJ: 42 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10886 (29%)
Lab: 14615 (38%)
LDem: 10293 (27%)
GRN: 2013 (5%)
Oth: 366 (1%)
MAJ: 3729 (10%)
2001
Con: 8725 (25%)
Lab: 16601 (47%)
LDem: 7273 (21%)
GRN: 1654 (5%)
Oth: 1154 (3%)
MAJ: 7876 (22%)
1997
Con: 11991 (27%)
Lab: 25275 (57%)
LDem: 5481 (12%)
Oth: 617 (1%)
MAJ: 13284 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hampstead & Highgate

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON MARCUS (Conservative) Born Hampstead. Educated at City of London School and Kings College London. Camden councillor since 2012. Contested Barking 2010.
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Corporate communications executive.
MAAJID NAWAZ (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Westcliff on Sea. Educated at Westcliff High School for Boys and SOAS. Executive director of Quilliam Foundation. Former member of extremist group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, he left HUT in 2007 to become a campaigner against extremism. Received death threats in 2013 for tweeting a Jesus and Mo cartoon.
MAGNUS NIELSEN (UKIP) Educated at George Dixons Grammar School and University of London. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2001, Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Hampstead and Kilburn 2010.
REBECCA JOHNSON (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Academic and nuclear disarmament expert.
ROBIN ELLISON (U Party) Educated at Manchester Grammar School and Cambridge University. Pensions lawyer. Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds.
THE EUROVISIONARY CARROLL (Independent) Born 1934, Belfast. Singer and entertainer. British entrant to the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963.. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 1997, Uxbridge by-election 1997, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Haltemprice 2008 by-election. Died on 13th April 2015, after the close of nominations.
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Comments - 765 Responses on “Hampstead & Kilburn”
  1. There’s no chance of Respect winning here or even coming close to holding their deposit. Camden’s considerable Bangladeshi population is concentrated in Holborn & St Pancras with the numbers being fairly negligible in the wards within this seat (there will be some who have found their way into council estates on the Camden side of Kilburn but there are more Bangladeshis in the single ward of St Pancras & Somers Town than than in the whole of this constituency). The muslim population overall in this seat isn’t large and includes significant numbers of groups like Arabs who mostly will not have a vote and will also include many wealthy and relatively secular Muslims. The kind of issues that animate voters in Bradford West or Tower Hamlets are for the most part irrelevant here

  2. Respect is playing the role of spoiler and will use this close race, and the media attention that it generates, as a soapbox to speak to a wider audience. Tulip is in for a beating as she is open to attacks surrounding her family’s privilege and wealth as this will play well for Respect to attack Labour as a party that campaigns on the left and governs from the right.

  3. On Pete’s last point, this is a very interesting article concerning Hampstead

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/31/inside-london-billionaires-row-derelict-mansions-hampstead

    You can see how increasing domination of an area by the super rich probably doesn’t help the Tories all that much.

  4. It is an interesting and quite shocking article. However, The Bishop’s Avenue is actually in Finchley and Golders Green rather than this seat. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to know if there are any roads in Hampstead itself where this neglect of super-expensive properties is evident.

  5. The neglect is by-the-by. What it does illustrate is that there are whole streets which are owned by foreign tycoons who only stay in the property occasionally and will mostly not be eligible to vote here even if they wanted to.

    Super-gentrified areas like Hampstead will find that their electorate is shrinking and such seats may have to expand further into neighbouring, primarily Labour voting, areas.

    It is a very different kind of gentrification from the kind seen in Putney or Battersea, which has been driven by middle class owner occupiers and has therefore benefitted the Tories immensely.

  6. The case for very high taxation of these properties is overwhelming I think. ‘Non-resident non-residents’ could perhaps be charged an annual fee of 15% of the property value.

  7. Nice piece of wishful thinking from Simon W above. The Tories could yet win here but they will have to do better nationally than most people feel is likely. If the parties are broadly competitive nationally, which I think still is very likely, then the national swing to Labour will compensate for the loss of Glenda Jackson’s personal vote. And, with a very large LD vote there to be squeezed, Labour has reasons for optimism on that front too.

  8. My 2015 forecast here:

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    LD 18
    Others 9

  9. I think that’s one of Alexander’s better forecasts. It could be a tad closer but I don’t see this being in recount territory in 2015. However, if the constituency does continue to exist in this form, it’s very likely the Tories will win it at some time in the not-too-distant future.

  10. I might have put us labour down 2 points, the tories down 1 and the Lib Dems holding up a bit better.

  11. If Camden was twinned with Barnet or Westminster Hampstead would be a certain Tory gain (twinned with Golders Green/ Hampstead Garden Suburb or St John’s Wood). If Camden twinned with Islington it would become a safe Labour constituency.

  12. Labour batter LDs in Camden. Take all 3 in West Hampstead, Cantelowes and Haverstock and in biggest shock of the night have snatched 2 maybe all 3 seats in Fortune Green a very safe LD ward. LDs could only end up with one councillor in Camden. Combined with strong labour performance in Queens Park and Kensal Green confirms my view that Labour not Tories capitalising on liberal collapse. Hampstead and Kilburn looks like it will be a fairly comfortable Labour hold next year.

  13. I’ll be interested to see the tallies for this constituency to see how far behind the Tories are.

  14. Taking top candidates, Labour got 1,414 more votes than the Tories in this constituency. The Tories outpolled Labour in Frognal & Fitzjohns, Swiss Cottage, Hampstead Town, Belsize & Brondesbury Park with Labour outpolling the Tories in the 2 Kilburn wards, Queens Park, W Hampstead & Fortune Green. The Tories have one more councillor than Labour since one LD Flick Rea (longest-serving Hampstead councillor) held on in Fortune Green. Labour has done much better in the Tory Hampstead wards than of late & the gap would have been rather wider if it had not been for a very strong personal vote for Carol Shaw, the LD turned Tory, in Brondesbury Park.

  15. Kensal Green is in the Brent Central constituency incidentally.

  16. Perhaps significant that there the Conservatives gained in the Victorian inner part of Brent while continuing to lose ground in the metroland former Brent North.

  17. Not sure. The Tories are still pretty weak in the south of the borough but Carol Shaw is clearly an extremely popular local politician. Brondesbury Park is actually less Victorian than most of the former Brent E seat. It has a lot of inter-war semis & detached houses & has a larger residual Jewish presence than surrounding wards too.

  18. On the basis of the local election results, this seat now looks an easy hold for Labour, even if, as I suspect is likely, they are doing badly in Emgland outside London next year.

    Labour’s distancing from the Unions in favour of a middle class clique with strong overseas connections appears likely to favour them in this constituency, just as it alienates very many once Labour voters in much of provincial England.

  19. Sorry if this has already been discussed but I wonder if Labours’s promise of a rent cap was a factor in the excellent Labour performance across London.

  20. Of course Carol Shaw was previously a Conservative Councillor (Cricklewood (1998), then BP (from2002)).

    She defected to Liberal Democrats around the time of the Brent East By-election in 2003, then went back more recently.

    Whatever one’s views of defectors are she clearly has her finger on the pulse and is both hard working and popular.

  21. 1,414 votes isn’t a particularly large lead for Labour and will give the Tories some encouragement for next year.

  22. . With General Election turnout and former LD support and Green I predict Labour will hold pretty comfortably. There is no doubt that LDs are out of running and Lab will make it clear that it’s either them or Tories. If course forgot that also appears that Kensal green library closure didn’t damage labour.

  23. Highest vote method:

    Lab 12,050 (33.8%)
    Con 10,636 (29.9%)
    LD 7,581 (21.3%)
    Green 4,666 (13.1%)
    TUSC 291 (0.8%)
    UKIP 202 (0.6%)
    Ind 199 (0.6%)

    Labour lead: 1,414 (4.0%)

  24. At constituency level Labour should be just fine in H&K for next year. The danger might be in 2020 and onwards. There’s clearly a Tory vote and at local level the Lib Dems still polled just over 20% hence the opportunity for a resurgence is open.

  25. Actually a pretty good result for the LDs here by London standards, this is a probable Labour hold, but it certainly won’t be comfortable.

  26. It looks less easy than almost all Lab-Con contests in 2015 where Labour currently holds the seat. Southampton Itchen is no longer completely straightforward but I can’t see many others being any trouble at all. Certainly not Westminster N now – if Labour is competitive in Maida Vale ward (where the party won its first councillor in I think over 20 years), then the seat as a whole will be held easily.

  27. Incidentally, although Labour won a majority of votes, the Tories still have more councillors (15) than Labour (14) in the constituency, with one remaining LD.

  28. There’s a few West Midlands marginals they might want to watch out for after 2015. While i see them holding Telford, Birmingham Northfield and Newcastle under Lyme next year, not entirely sure of their long-term prospects.

  29. The 6 Tory councillors in Brent have managed to split into 2 separate groups. The 3 councillors in Brondesbury Park have now become the “Brondesbury Park Conservative Group” with the official Conservative group consisting only of their 3 Kenton councillors. The sole issue appears to have been group leadership & deputy leadership. This of course continues the fine tradition of Tory rowing in Brent of recent years – sometimes I think we in the Labour Party are amateurs when I see what goes on in some boroughs like Brent & Hyndburn. The rowing appeared to be confined to Brent North before now, but now seems to have spread to the whole borough.

  30. Possibly literally, it’s two bald men fighting over a comb.

  31. This is a borough where the Tories could compete and offer voters a sensible alternative and a much better service.
    Look at it now.

  32. Brent that is.

    Camden not bad results.

  33. Brent 1994- C33 L 28 LD 5.
    Brent 2014 C6 L56 LD 1

    Ouch!

    (London data store is so helpful it is a shame there is no corresponding resource for the Mets. )

  34. And 1994 was an awful here for the Tories aswell – unlike a fairly even position now.

  35. Hampstead and Kilburn 2015 (Mean Average for Wards in 2014 repeated on 2010 turnout)

    Labour 18583
    Conservative 15767
    Liberal Democrat 10242
    Green 7105
    Others 1123

    LAB HOLD
    Majority 2816
    Swing 2.6% from Con to Lab

  36. Just goes to show the H&K is not a secure banker for Labour in the future. I see them holding with such a majority next year and maybe a further term in 2020. But after that who knows. Subsequent boundary changes could make things interesting.

    What’s plain to see is that the Lib Dem vote has not collapsed so Labour can’t rely on that element of the electorate like they can in other parts where said vote has crashed.

  37. My personal view is that the Lib Dem vote share here will be lower in the GE. As in Ealing Central & Acton, there is a long standing local vote for the Lib Dems in wards like West Hampstead which was accustomed to switching to Labour in general elections prior to 2010. The local elections on the Brent side also flattered the Tories to a certain extent due to personal votes, as explained by Barnaby upthread. My expectation is a Labour majority of 5000 or so.

  38. This seats looks like a labour-Conservative marginal for next year. Disilusion with the major parties is lagging behing in London as compared to the provinces, not least because political apparatchiks live in London.

    I would be careful about predicting the long term political future in a seat with a comparatively rapid voter turnover and similarly liability to demographic change. Remember that even in the 60s, when political change was much slower, a Hampstead seat that looked rock solid for the Tories in 1959 went Labour in 1966.

  39. There are a lot of Lib Dem votes up for grabs in these marginals – it’s potentially quite an unstable situation.

  40. I don’t think Labour will win by as much as 5,000 with Jackson retiring. Although her personal vote wasn’t towering like that of Steve Pound, it was still enough to stave off defeat in 2010 (Labour got fewer votes than both the Tories & the LDs in the local elections held the same day). With parts of this constituency drifting off in a Tory direction demographically – e.g. Swiss Cottage was marginal a generation ago, now it is clearly a safe Tory ward – I wouldn’t expect an above-average swing to Labour here which would be implied by such a lead. 3,000 is perhaps a more realistic figure for the Labour majority.

  41. I agree with Barnaby’s points above.

    I think Rosa’s projection is about right as a prediction for 2015- a Labour majority of nearly 3000 over the Tories.

  42. Ashcroft polling figures:

    Lab 41
    Con 30
    LD 19
    UKIP 3

  43. LDs actually doing better than I would have thought here.

  44. This seat is very much the exception to the rule as far as the LDs are concerned.

  45. They still have strength in the Camden wards of this seat, AFAIK.

  46. They have one council seat in the constituency at present. They are competitive for a few more though.

  47. Ben Whitaker, Labour MP for Hampstead from 1966 to 1970 (and the first Labour MP to win there) has died aged 79.

  48. He must have been one of the youngest MPs in the House in 1966.

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