Hampstead & Kilburn

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22839 (42.3%)
Labour: 23977 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 3039 (5.6%)
Green: 2387 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1532 (2.8%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 77 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1138 (2.1%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Parts of Camden and Brent council areas.

Main population centres: Hampstead, Kilburn, Kendal Rise.

Profile: Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia, although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area. Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. Gentrification is having its effect even here though and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.

Politics: Hampstead and Kilburn was created for the 2010 election, a cross borough seat based on the old Hampstead and Highgate seat of Glenda Jackson and the Brent East seat of Sarah Teather, who opted to fight the Brent Central seat instead. In 2010 the result was an extremely tight three-way finish between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat with Labour only winning by 42 votes. In 2015 the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed, but the battle between Labour and Conservative remained tight, with Tulip Siddiq winning by only two percent.


Current MP
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Former corporate communications executive. First elected as MP for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17290 (33%)
Lab: 17332 (33%)
LDem: 16491 (31%)
GRN: 759 (1%)
Oth: 950 (2%)
MAJ: 42 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10886 (29%)
Lab: 14615 (38%)
LDem: 10293 (27%)
GRN: 2013 (5%)
Oth: 366 (1%)
MAJ: 3729 (10%)
2001
Con: 8725 (25%)
Lab: 16601 (47%)
LDem: 7273 (21%)
GRN: 1654 (5%)
Oth: 1154 (3%)
MAJ: 7876 (22%)
1997
Con: 11991 (27%)
Lab: 25275 (57%)
LDem: 5481 (12%)
Oth: 617 (1%)
MAJ: 13284 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hampstead & Highgate

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON MARCUS (Conservative) Born Hampstead. Educated at City of London School and Kings College London. Camden councillor since 2012. Contested Barking 2010.
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Corporate communications executive.
MAAJID NAWAZ (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Westcliff on Sea. Educated at Westcliff High School for Boys and SOAS. Executive director of Quilliam Foundation. Former member of extremist group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, he left HUT in 2007 to become a campaigner against extremism. Received death threats in 2013 for tweeting a Jesus and Mo cartoon.
MAGNUS NIELSEN (UKIP) Educated at George Dixons Grammar School and University of London. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2001, Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Hampstead and Kilburn 2010.
REBECCA JOHNSON (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Academic and nuclear disarmament expert.
ROBIN ELLISON (U Party) Educated at Manchester Grammar School and Cambridge University. Pensions lawyer. Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds.
THE EUROVISIONARY CARROLL (Independent) Born 1934, Belfast. Singer and entertainer. British entrant to the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963.. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 1997, Uxbridge by-election 1997, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Haltemprice 2008 by-election. Died on 13th April 2015, after the close of nominations.
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Comments - 765 Responses on “Hampstead & Kilburn”
  1. Happily they didn’t, and had they done so I hope they would have received a humiliating vote.

    It’s all well and good for the Daleks of this world to imagine how fun it would be to import sectarian politics to the mainland, from the comfort of their leafy houses in the south east of England.

    The reality however is that sectarian politics is a poisonous blight on Northern Ireland and we should be glad that it hasn’t spread over to potentially fertile territory on the mainland like Liverpool and Glasgow.

  2. I think this is by far the most likely Tory gain in London at the next election, although it’s still very unlikely. One of the problems in assessing the situation here is it’s very difficult to know whether or not Glenda Jackson has a personal or anti-personal vote, which of course won’t be very large but with such a small majority it would be important. She may not be liked by a lot of people outside Hampstead but in the constituency she could have a small personal vote.

  3. Thatcherism pretty much destroyed the old Protestant Orange Tory vote in Liverpool. But Liverpool Walton went Tory in the 60’s

  4. Could anyone explain the demographics of this seat please?

  5. On 14th July, Tulip Siddiq was selected by Hampstead and Kilburn Labour Party to be the Labour candidate in 2015
    In response to windsofchange…. I would say complicated.

  6. If you go on Neighbourhood Statistics you can get a large amount of demographic information on a particular constituency.

  7. Thanks Andy, that will prove very helpful to me. 🙂

  8. SF considered contesting the 1988 Glasgow Govan by election in protest at the BBC broadcasting ban. Had they stood they may have changed the course of Jim Sillars victory as by election by their presence consolidating the unionist vote.

  9. More fantasy.

    Had they stood they would have polled a handful of votes and changed the course of nothing.

  10. The reason reported by the BBC for SF for finally not contesting Glasgow Govan was not fear of a low vote but the fact that they did not want to introduce a sectarianism into the campaign.

    Had SF stood they may have reduced the 14677 people who voted Jim Sillars, with more electors backing Labour and Conservative.

    Labour’s Bob Gillespie would have got more than 11123 votes and the Conservatives Graham Hamiltion would have polled more than 2207 reducing Jim Sillar’s 14677.

  11. Maajid Nawaz selected by the LDs for Hampstead & Kilburn.

    Hampstead & Kilburn is the first constituency where candidates for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats have been selected.

    Con: Simon Marcus
    Lab: Tulip Siddiq
    LD: Maajid Nawaz

  12. Did Simon Marcus stand in Barking in 2010?

    Can’t see Labour losing this. Part of the high Lib Dems vote in 2010 should move to them.

    Tulip Siddiqui would be the second British Bangladeshi MP.

  13. Lab 39
    Con 32
    Lib 24
    Ukip 2
    Green 2
    Other 1

  14. Could anyone explain why Green vote share was stagnant pretty much across 2001 and 2005 despite decreasing Labour fortunes, yet at their lowest point for a long time in 2010, Green vote share fell by 3/4? Is that due to the high LD vote?

  15. The seat was very marginal going into the 2010 election therefore the Greens were squeezed heavily by both Labour and the Lib Dems.

    It’s hard to predict what will happen to the Greens here in 2015. In one sense they will continue to be very heavily squeezed by Labour, as this remains a very marginal seat where the Tories have a chance of winning. On the other hand there will be a lot of disillusioned Lib Dems, some of whom might go over to the Greens. Overall I think they could get 4-5%.

  16. So a return to 2001-5 levels but from ex LDs, as opposed to people returning from Lab?

  17. It’s also worth noting that the Greens’ strongest ward by far is Highgate, which of course used to be in the linear predecessor to this seat, but which since 2010 has been in Holborn & St Pancras – Highgate ward was until the 1960s part of the old Borough of St Pancras.

  18. I meant of course their strongest ward in the London boroughs of Brent & Camden. It’s one of only 2 London wards to have elected a Green councillor in 2010 – the other is Brockley ward, Lewisham.

  19. The other factor is that this area is becoming too rich for the Greens, with the kind of people most likely to vote for them gradually being priced out. I don’t see Camden as a particularly promising area for the in the long term. The muesli belt patches of Lewisham, Southwark and Lambeth have much more long-term potential.

  20. Why does north London have heaths and south London have commons?

  21. “muesli belt patches of Lewisham, Southwark and Lambeth have much more long-term potential.”

    Is museli still eaten by that sort of person?

    Or are they onto home made granola or oatmeal which you soak overnight?

  22. Maybe you’re right. I wouldn’t really know as I’m not that kind of person at all, and though my wife is very partial to sun-dried tomatoes she thankfully isn’t an Islington type either.

    I had a really interesting chat not long ago with an old business acquaintance who recently sold his company and became very rich. He sold his house in Sydenham and moved to Surrey Quays. We were joking that had he got rich 40 or 50 years ago he would have sold his house in Surrey Quays and moved to Sydenham.

  23. “All three candidates vying for election in Hampstead and Kilburn at the 2015 general election came together for the first time to answer questions and introduce themselves to pupils at a Hampstead boys school.
    BBC news presenter Jon Sopel hosted a special hustings at University College School, in Frognal, on Friday (November 28) attended by all three of the parliamentary candidates looking to replace Hampstead and Kilburn MP, Glenda Jackson.”

    h ttp://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/contenders_vying_to_be_mp_for_hampstead_and_kilburn_attend_first_hustings_at_ucs_school_1_3064531

  24. Prediction for 2015-
    Siddiq (Labour)- 36%
    Marcus (Conservative)- 32%
    Nawaz (Liberal Democrats)- 23%
    Green- 5%
    UKIP- 3%
    Others- 1%

  25. I think you’ve got the majority about right but I’m pretty sure both Labour and the Tories will be somewhat higher than that, whilst the Lib Dem vote will drop like a stone, almost certainly below 20%.

    Given the marginal status of the seat I doubt the Greens will manage 5% and UKIP on 3% is a bit of a stretch….this is very unfriendly territory for them.

  26. When Glenda Jackson first won the old Hampstead and Highgate seat in 1992, was that when it was considered a hub of middle class intelligentsia? Or was it more during the Blair years?

    If most of the Camden wards in H&K are strongly Tory and all Labour can rely on is Kilburn and the few Brent wards (presumably trending to them demographically), then it’s going to be a key marginal in the future. I think Tulip Sidiq will hold it for the party, but it’s not a secure one for the future.

  27. It’s been a hub of middle class intelligentsia for many decades, certainly a lot longer than 1992.

  28. “If most of the Camden wards in H&K are strongly Tory and all Labour can rely on is Kilburn and the few Brent wards (presumably trending to them demographically)”

    I’m not sure either statment is true. Only Frognal & Fitzjohns is really a strong Tory ward – they can generally count on Hampstead Town, Swiss Cottage and Belsize too but there would be a substantial Labour minority in all these while Fortune Green and especially West Hampstead would lean Labour.
    On the Brent side though i’m not sure it is trending to Labour demographically. This is one area of Brent, being closest to central London where the demographics may be moving the other way. Brondesbury Park is still a pretty decent area and probably the best area in Brent now – the Tory vote has been suppressed by the LD strength there following Sarah Teather’s by-election victory and the simultansous defection of local coucnillor Carol Shaw who has now defected back the other way. With this ward now being outside Teather’s seat the local elections there next year should show some return to normality, whatever that turns out to be. Queens Park is also an area that has been going up int he world in recent years though perhaps being gentrified more by lefty public sector types – they could start to be priced out of even this area though and the same process could be affecting some of the nicer roads in Kilburn (but not South Kilburn which can only be improved by demolishing it)
    I agree with your conclusion though

  29. It was much more a hub of “middle class intelligentsia” in 1992 than it is now. Today much of the middle class intelligentsia has been replaced by rich banker types in the Hampstead wards, which has been balanced out, as Neil says, by strongly Labour parts of Brent being brought into the seat. In this sense it is more and more becoming one of those polarised London seats, a bit like Westminster North next door, though not that extreme as yet.

    There’s little doubt the boundary changes saved Labour here in 2010 and most likely will do so again in 2015; there’s no doubt this would be a Tory seat now under the 1992 Hampstead & Highgate boundaries.

  30. Neil – Labour can only be sure of a majority over both parties in one Camden ward in this constituency, Kilburn as you say. However, clearly the main object of the exercise in the seat is to obtain more votes than the Tories, and then it becomes different. Labour has every chance of outpolling the Tories in the 2 entirely LD wards in Camden (W Hampstead & Fortune Green). I would expect Labour on current form, or rather expected form come 2015, to outpoll the Tories in W Hampstead, Fortune Green, Brondesbury Park (fairly narrowly) Queens Park & the 2 Kilburn wards (strongly), and the Tories to outpoll Labour in Belsize (fairly narrowly but conclusively), Hampstead Town, Swiss Cottage & Frognal/Fitzjohns (strongly). It is more than possible that Labour’s lead in the 2 Kilburn wards will be more than the Tory lead in their strongest wards, but getting the vote out will be crucial & this does seem to me to be likely to stay in the marginal column even if Labour comes to power.
    Re Neil’s question, it clearly was already an intelligentsia area when Ben Whitaker won Hampstead for Labour in 1966 – it had been quite easily held by the Tories in 1945. Though W Hampstead was a much more working class area than today, Labour enjoyed a strong vote in almost every ward, even the wealthiest ones.

  31. Robberbutton – apologies that only just spotted your comment. The DUP came VERY close to standing in a Liverpool ward in 1998. It was front page news in the Liverpool Echo and Merseymart. Indeed it was the only ward the Tories did not contest that year (they had co-operated previously when the Protestant Party had City Cllrs til the early 1970s). Breckfield ward was/is overwhelmingly Protestant unlike any other area of the city and it contains two Orange Order HQs and social clubs. I doubt that the DUP would have won the ward, although it’s not so far fetched. Labour were down to 20 of the 99 City Cllrs then and the LibDems took the ward at the first attempt the next time. I’ll check with an older colleague who still works in Lpool. I think a nomination paper may even have been submitted, but was withdrawn. To show how true the rumour was, it was organised by Phil Moffat. He gained a seat for the LibDems in 2007, was a popular young Scouse butcher and lead the Ind Orange Order in Lpool. He is now a DUP Officer in N Ireland.

  32. PS In the period 1998-2003, Labour in Lpool lost seats to LDs, Liberals and Liverpool Labour on turnouts of 7%-20% so it was not uncommon for Cllrs to be elected with 500-750 votes, even with electorates of 8-10,000.

  33. To correct Mike Homfray – the Orange Tory vote as an electoral asset largely died out in Lpool before Thatcher, so she can’t be accused of/heralded for that change. In fact the last Tory gains in Lpool occurred under Thatcher (as Party leader and PM). Lpool Garston in 1979 being the obvious and Liverpool as a seat in the European Elections later that year [the Labour candidate was a Militant]. 1977 was the last year of Tory gains at Council level in Lpool – with even Council estates in North Liverpool going Tory on the County Council.

  34. Thye Elephant in this seat is the large Western- other proportion of the electorate, which I suspect is increasing further. Even well off British people can no longer afford to live in large parts of this seat. We are no longer thinking of an Irish vote in Kilburn so much as a Western European, notably French, vote in Hampstead, where a good detached house can well cost in excess of £1million.
    The question is as to what effect this will have on future election results. One outcome is likely to be a declining electorate and turnout as “ordinary” people (have to) move out. But beyond this it is an open question as to whether such demographic change, which can happen rapidly in London, will more the seat to the right as long-standing residents have paid for their houses, whereas younger ones have to move onto other places, or whether the reduction in voters in the rich (by any standards) parts of the seat will mean that a greater proportion of the voters will be in Labour (and perhaps LibDem) areas such as Kilburn.

    So far as I can tell, there seems to be comparatively little effect directly on political opinions, but this could change.

  35. There’s no question that the number of Irish or Irish-heritage voters in Kilburn is greatly reduced these days, especially I suspect in the Camden part of it. Kilburn is nowadays quite heavily non-white & this is part of the reason why it’s Labour’s strongest area by far in the constituency. The Irish community is rather stronger further north, but much of it is in Brent Central rather than this seat.

  36. I think this may possibly be a surprise Conservative gain (if narrowly) in 2015, given the gentrification in some areas of this constituency , the fact that fewer than 1000 votes separates the three major parties, and the fact Glenda Jackson is retiring.

    If this does somehow happen (it is not likely, but it is nevertheless possible), the result may look something like this:

    Con 35
    Lab 34
    LD 22
    Green 5
    UKIP 2
    Others 2

    My optimistic prediction for the Green vote is partly because the Greens got squeezed by tactical voting in 2010 to keep the Conservatives out of this seat.

  37. Do you not think that the Green vote will be squeezed again in 2015 to ‘keep the Conservatives out of this seat’? I’d have thought that it will be even more likely to happen that it was in 2010.

  38. Such a result is possible only if the Tories are well ahead of Labour nationally and there is, at the most, only a very small national, or London-wide, swing. What you say is partially true, but AKMD is right about the Green vote, and any statistically significant national swing will at least nullify Jackson’s retirement. I also don’t think that the area has gentrified all that much more than it already had in 2010; the major gentrification, or, perhaps strictly speaking, the decline of the wealthy intelligentsia in favour of wealthy city workers (as in Richmond Park), had already occurred by 2010. This is why the Conservatives were able to come close, which they hadn’t done since Jackson first gained the Hampstead & Highgate seat, despite an unfavourable boundary change from their point of view. You also haven’t taken into account the very large 3rd-place LD vote which I continue to feel is more Labour-inclined than Conservative-inclined in the majority of this constituency (though I accept not in all of it).

  39. The brouhaha surrounding Maajid Nawaz and the depiction of the Prophet Mohammed is quite troubling. The fact that radicals feel emboldened to intimidate a parliamentary candidate for having a different view point in Britain in 2014 is something everyone here should be dismayed at. Only time will tell how this will play out, but if was living here and Nawaz is still on the ballot in 2015, I would be very tempted to support him.

  40. I like to think the other parties will do the decent thing here in 2015 and say something along the lines of “We don’t think you should vote for Maajid Nawaz, but we defend his freedom of speech and his right to stand on his own beliefs.”

    Depends how dirty the campaign gets, I suppose.

  41. Good on Guardian CiF for giving him space to write an article on his position today. Radical Muslims offend plenty of other people’s sentiments with their views, but then wish to play victim when a liberal Muslim makes a completely innocuous remark.

  42. I saw a comment today to the effect of: Maajid Nawaz has no business lecturing people on freedom of speech when his party has just supported the gagging bill, which I thought had a point.

    I understand there will be some leafleting outside mosques in Kilburn about Nawaz. Tulip Sidiq is likely to pick up votes on this despite a relatively meaningless statement about the affair. The question is if Nawaz will pick up more from the liberal intelligentsia than he loses from the Muslims.

  43. As I understand it, a lot of the Muslims who’ll be bothered by this (the more devout ones) don’t vote for the same reason Jehovah’s Witnesses don’t – they see it as God’s duty to make and enforce laws, not humanity. So maybe he doesn’t have much to lose electorally.

  44. One important point about the gentrification of the area (perhaps aristocratisation would be more appropriate in view of the enormous house prices) is that quite a lot of purchasers are not British or Commonwealth citizens and therefore cannot vote at general elections. You can see how this works by comparing London electorate changes with population changes from the census, and by looking at the figures published by ONS on the difference between those eligible to vote at parliamentary and local/european elections. The difference for Brent & Camden is a huge 47,500 or 13% of the local government electorate. I’d guess that more than a quarter of this is in Hampstead.

  45. I tend to think Nawaz knew what he was doing and did so for political gain and self-publicity

    The last point made is also relevant in Westminster and K&C – and could easily see political shifts there as more of the voting public are poorer social housing and bedsitter tenants

  46. One should also examine the % of social housing in the constituency. It may well be that in very expensive areas that this is declining – a dual effect going on.

    The combination of the two might arguably help the Lib Dems.

  47. I use the term gentrification to describe a working class area whose inhabitants are now much more middle class leading to dearer house prices and a change, but not always, in political complexion. Gentrification in Hampstead probably began about 1870 when Norman Shaw built large houses and lived in one himself although there may have been middle class inhabitants in the old village. It was pretty well known as a middle class area throughout the 20th century. The term seems to be used on this and the Richmond Park thread to describe a different type of middle class resident to explain the good Tory performance in 2010, although both seats had been Tory in the past.

  48. Chiswick too had a Labour MP from 1966 to 1974 because it was full of media types.

  49. Galloway’s Respect Party has announced an intention to stand, doubt they’ll pick up a huge vote but even a small number might be significant in this constituency. They are likely to make much of Tulip Siddq’s Awami League links (her aunt is the PM of Bangladesh) which could affect her vote among Camden’s considerable Bangladeshi community.

  50. How surprising…not.

    Respect’s only purpose is to exploit Muslim votes and create religious divisions. Given the Labour and the Lib Dems have Muslim candidates, wonder how that vicious party of scum might do or say during the campaign.

    Notice how Respect only comes alive when their favourite pet issue makes headlines (e.g. the Maajid Nawaz stuff). Just a few months ago they were in meltdown in Bradford when their councillors resigned the whip following Galloway’s interest in standing for London mayor.

    Truly hope for the sake of H&K that they don’t get lumbered with a Respect MP after the 2015 election.

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