Hampstead & Kilburn

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22839 (42.3%)
Labour: 23977 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 3039 (5.6%)
Green: 2387 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1532 (2.8%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 77 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1138 (2.1%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Parts of Camden and Brent council areas.

Main population centres: Hampstead, Kilburn, Kendal Rise.

Profile: Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia, although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area. Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. Gentrification is having its effect even here though and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.

Politics: Hampstead and Kilburn was created for the 2010 election, a cross borough seat based on the old Hampstead and Highgate seat of Glenda Jackson and the Brent East seat of Sarah Teather, who opted to fight the Brent Central seat instead. In 2010 the result was an extremely tight three-way finish between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat with Labour only winning by 42 votes. In 2015 the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed, but the battle between Labour and Conservative remained tight, with Tulip Siddiq winning by only two percent.


Current MP
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Former corporate communications executive. First elected as MP for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17290 (33%)
Lab: 17332 (33%)
LDem: 16491 (31%)
GRN: 759 (1%)
Oth: 950 (2%)
MAJ: 42 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10886 (29%)
Lab: 14615 (38%)
LDem: 10293 (27%)
GRN: 2013 (5%)
Oth: 366 (1%)
MAJ: 3729 (10%)
2001
Con: 8725 (25%)
Lab: 16601 (47%)
LDem: 7273 (21%)
GRN: 1654 (5%)
Oth: 1154 (3%)
MAJ: 7876 (22%)
1997
Con: 11991 (27%)
Lab: 25275 (57%)
LDem: 5481 (12%)
Oth: 617 (1%)
MAJ: 13284 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hampstead & Highgate

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON MARCUS (Conservative) Born Hampstead. Educated at City of London School and Kings College London. Camden councillor since 2012. Contested Barking 2010.
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Corporate communications executive.
MAAJID NAWAZ (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Westcliff on Sea. Educated at Westcliff High School for Boys and SOAS. Executive director of Quilliam Foundation. Former member of extremist group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, he left HUT in 2007 to become a campaigner against extremism. Received death threats in 2013 for tweeting a Jesus and Mo cartoon.
MAGNUS NIELSEN (UKIP) Educated at George Dixons Grammar School and University of London. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2001, Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Hampstead and Kilburn 2010.
REBECCA JOHNSON (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Academic and nuclear disarmament expert.
ROBIN ELLISON (U Party) Educated at Manchester Grammar School and Cambridge University. Pensions lawyer. Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds.
THE EUROVISIONARY CARROLL (Independent) Born 1934, Belfast. Singer and entertainer. British entrant to the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963.. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 1997, Uxbridge by-election 1997, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Haltemprice 2008 by-election. Died on 13th April 2015, after the close of nominations.
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Comments - 765 Responses on “Hampstead & Kilburn”
  1. HH
    Probably not, lets be real the BC probably don’t listen that much, too busy being bribed/cajoled/intimated by the local parties to listen to a geek like me.

  2. You do realise Camden is about as Europhile, liberal, cosmopolitan a borough as there is in the whole UK? I.e. completely the opposite to the type of voters T May is targeting.

  3. Tulip Siddiq has resigned from her shadow front bench position over the article 50 vote.

    It remains to be seen whether any full shadow cabinet members follow suit. If Jeremy Corbyn has any sense he will offer his MPs a free vote. MPs resigning to destabilise you is one thing; MPs resigning out of conscience is entirely avoidable.

  4. Who?

  5. Runnymede:
    If you scroll up you’ll see a brief biography. Polltroll posted on this thread because she’s the MP here. You can find biographies of MPS on almost all of the constituency pages.

  6. Runnymede: Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition 😉

  7. Really? How remarkable.

  8. Gramscism

  9. Unfortunately not that surprising. It say unfortunately not because being left wing makes people inferior academics, but because an environment in which one worldview dominates is not conducive to the original thinking and constant challenging of received wisdom that makes for a vibrant academic community.

    I have recent experience of a leading academic in a politics department who was presented with evidence from the highly reputable Scottish Social Attitudes surveys [here: http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/moreno-national-identity-5#table%5D showing that Scottish national identity has actually shifted towards displaying a British aspect since the turn of the century. The numbers calling themselves “equally Scottish and British”, “more British than Scottish” and “Scottish not British” have all increased, while the numbers saying “Scottish not British” and “more Scottish than British” have all declined. His response was that those doing the survey must have interviewed a disproportionate number of people living in Morningside or some such place.

    That kind of closed mindedness, prioritising your own preconceptions over what the evidence might be saying, isn’t healthy. It’s the sort of mindset that produces risible research publications such as Wilkinson and Pickett’s “The Spirit Level”.

  10. Very interesting Kieran and I’m afraid unsurprising.

  11. Working in Higher Education myself I’m not at all surprised by that Telegraph piece.

  12. Writing as somebody who works in an academic department at a major university I am not remotely surprised by this. In fact, in the department I work in I would be surprised if there were as many as 12% holding conservative views.

    Mainly for the reasons Kieran stated I do think this is undesirable. But I don’t think it is the result of some great liberal conspiracy not to hire conservatives. It is probably partly a self-fulfilling prophecy in that academia’s liberal reputation encourages more liberals to want to pursue a career in it than conservatives. There is also probably an element of people seeking to conform – so those who didn’t have strong political views prior to their PhDs follow the lead of their senior colleagues and adopt liberal views. As well as the fact that there is probably a strong correlation between more liberal political views and willingness to forego a higher salary in return for the relatively comfortable, yet financially unrewarding at lower levels, academic pathway.

  13. All true of the BBC as well – except the last part 🙂

  14. “It is probably partly a self-fulfilling prophecy in that academia’s liberal reputation encourages more liberals to want to pursue a career in it than conservatives.”

    That’s surely true, just as business careers are more likely to appeal to those who are more free-market minded and anti-socialist.

    Given this however, I am very curious to know how staunch Conservatives such as yourself, Kieran and Jason can tolerate, let alone enjoy, a career in academia, and why you went into it in the first place. I am not as conservative as any of the three of you yet a career in academia or anywhere else in the public sector would, I’m pretty sure, drive me totally nuts.

  15. I didn’t realise I was “staunch Conservative”, having never declared any allegiance on here…I thought I’d kept it hidden a bit better! The funny thing is most people I know in political spheres (a Councillor, a former election candidate, the mother and late father of a sitting MP) are all Labour. And as for my closest friends – the Corbynista is strong amongst them!

    Anyway, my work is very much “back office”, albeit at a reasonably senior level in terms of my day to day dealings, so I’m slightly insulated from any more overt political leanings, although working in teacher training it’s something of a double whammy. I love my job, though, even if I have to bite my tongue or try to avoid a wry smile creeping in from time to time when a member of academic staff veers off into anti-government rhetoric.

  16. ‘Given this however, I am very curious to know how staunch Conservatives such as yourself, Kieran and Jason can tolerate, let alone enjoy, a career in academia, and why you went into it in the first place. ‘

    It’s like Pete Whitehead working in the public sector – it seems too ironic to be true

    It tends to happen though

    There’s long tradition of the staunchest right-wingers (From Mussolini to Portillo) having just as staunchly socialist parents, and I was most anti Conservative when I went to my boarding school in Surrey, which was about 90%+ Conservative

  17. “It’s like Pete Whitehead working in the public sector – it seems too ironic to be true”

    And Shaun Bennett working as a health & safety officer!

  18. “Given this however, I am very curious to know how staunch Conservatives such as yourself, Kieran and Jason can tolerate, let alone enjoy, a career in academia, and why you went into it in the first place”.

    I can’t speak for the others, Hemmelig, but with me it was just a case of discovering something that I enjoy and that someone will pay me to do. I guess that’s how a lot of people choose their career. Teaching and research fits that bill for me.

    I can tolerate it, firstly, because I never discuss day to day politics with work colleagues. A lot of people take that approach at work, but I think it’s particularly important if you work with “clever” people. The latter’s confidence in their intellectual ability tends to make them more fixed in their beliefs. They believe their opinions are based on facts rather than prejudice, when in reality they are just better at rationalising their prejudice than someone less intelligent or articulate. It’s a recipe for “dialogue of the deaf” debates on day to day politics that achieve nothing other than fostering resentment.

    Secondly the vast majority of academic research (even in politics departments) does not have partisan political implications. This limits the extent to which the fact that most academics are left leaning infliences the nature of professional life.

    You get the odd social science academic who is clearly a type of “social justice warrior” whose research output is clearly influenced by their political beliefs. There are not many of them however (they are more common in the ex Polys in my experience), as bad research tends to get called out no matter what political leanings it might have (The Spirit Level book I referred to above was roundly criticised by many social scientists).

  19. ‘The latter’s confidence in their intellectual ability tends to make them more fixed in their beliefs. They believe their opinions are based on facts rather than prejudice, when in reality they are just better at rationalising their prejudice than someone less intelligent or articulate’

    That is so true. We see it every day, I’m afraid, especially among Remainers like the increasingly unhinged Richard Dawkins.

  20. ‘That is so true. We see it every day, I’m afraid, especially among Remainers like the increasingly unhinged Richard Dawkins.’

    Since you seem as keen as anyone to, coin a phrase, “keep banging on about Europe” and the evils of the Remoaners, what yo stay to poll after poll which showed that Remain voters were more intelligent, more successful, wealthier, better looking and most crucially of all happier in their lives than those who voted Leave, or like most ignorant Brexiters do you just claim its mere coincidence

    They say you can judge a person by the company they chose to keep

  21. “What you stay to poll after poll which showed that Remain voters were more intelligent, more successful, wealthier, better looking and most crucially of all happier in their lives than those who voted Leave, or like most ignorant Brexiters do you just claim its mere coincidence”.

    There are so many things wrong with that sentence that it has to be at least in part a wind up. For starters how are you measuring “intelligence” or “success”? Happiness is a similarly difficult to measure concept, but even assuming it was possible would it be at all surprising that the the more happy vote for the status quo while the less happy vote for change? As for wealth, is there some added prestige that comes from a cause winning over the votes of the wealthy even if it loses out overall?

    The basic idea behind a lot of these type of comments is that remain “really won” the referendum because that side won the support of the “most intelligent” people. That leave only won due to the votes of the ignorant. It’s an idea that seems to operate under a basic misunderstanding of the nature of most political choices.

    In reality there is almost never one course of action that anyone will inevitably support if they know the full facts about a situation. Brexit is no exception to that. What is the best option in any given situation depends on judgments about which goals are more important than others, and what exactly goals such as “justice” and “fairness” look like in particular sets of circumstances. That judgement is always at least partly subjective; as much about personal values as about deciding what is fact and what is fiction.

    This idea that political dilemmas can be “solved” by clever people looking at all the evidence and coming to a considered solution that the less clever and informed should respect is (ironically) very simplistic.

  22. Kieran – thanks very much for your interesting reply.

    “poll after poll which showed that Remain voters were more intelligent, more successful, wealthier, better looking and most crucially of all happier in their lives than those who voted Leave”

    If true, some of that is quite surprising. IIRC surveys tend to show retired people are generally happier with their lives than younger people, and this cohort was the core of the Leave vote. The retired are also increasingly wealthy relative to younger people, making the stereotype of the average Leave voter being poor quite hard to believe IMO.

  23. The older people you refer to probably are happier with their own lives, but they are also less happy with what they see as the state of the country than young people. It’s a form of cultural rather than economic alienation driving their political leanings.

    My former supervisor, Eric Kauffman of Birkbeck uses the phrase “Its not the economy, stupid” to describe the phenomenon of those who are definitely not poor voting for the anti-establishment option: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/trump-and-brexit-why-its-again-not-the-economy-stupid/

  24. Was there ever a time when older people were not bemoaning the state of the country?

    In my 1980s childhood it seemed many of their complaints were from the left….”selling off the family silver”, mass closure of industry etc, though that was probably influenced by the area I grew up in.

    Since Blair in the late 90s the complaints of the retired seemed to shift decisively to the right and have remained so even after years of Tory government.

  25. HH is right.

    I suppose OAPs wouldn’t regard 2010-2015 as a Tory Govt (as it was a Coalition and didn’t behave as a Conservative Govt in terms of immigration etc); but, I’d imagine they would now it is.

    Tim’s ‘better looking’ Remainians’ claim amused me. I thought he said only the far Right were narcissists. Let me guess the London media found attractive young people? If it’s anything like the BBC3 poll of young people – many were found to be not even eligible to vote as they were EU nationals.

  26. In the 70s and 80s, serious racism was more universal and not the left v right and young v old issue it is today….indeed there was a lot of bigotry on the traditional left and in the unions, popularised by “Love Thy Neighbour” etc.

    In retrospect, the first Countryside Alliance march in (I think) 1999 and the heckling of Blair by the WI seem like watersheds which began to turn retired, comfortable middle England against Blairism….at the time they were ridiculed as oddballs by New Labour (Tony Blair’s “Tally Ho” comment at the party conference), but in retrospect this was a key embryo of what turfed Brown out of government in 2010 and eventually led to Brexit.

  27. I think HH has a point here. There was a degree of toleration for Blair in his early years from middle England – I can remember fruitlessly campaigning with my uncle against Labour then and often getting bemused replies along the lines of ‘what’s all the fuss about?’ from voters of that type.

    Labour’s attack on foxhunting definitely radicalised an important component of the country vote against him, as did Labour’s callous and incompetent handling of foot and mouth.

    Yet even after all this, and Iraq, and immigration, Blair still got home in 2005 – it was Brown who really sank New Labour electorally.

    Blair’s reputation has actually declined a lot further since he left office – he is now loathed an untrustworthy, troughing chancer.

  28. “it was Brown who really sank New Labour electorally.”

    At least as much through his economic policies as chancellor as through his incompetence as PM.

    Blair wanted to rein in spending after the 2005 election but was unable to overrule Brown, who rather than applying the brakes put his foot on the gas. Had Labour trimmed the PSBR a bit in the 2005-2008 period we would be in a far better position today. Remember these were the “we’ve abolished boom and bust” years….the current government should be careful to avoid that kind of hubris.

  29. ‘If true, some of that is quite surprising. IIRC surveys tend to show retired people are generally happier with their lives than younger people, and this cohort was the core of the Leave vote. ‘

    Another core chunk of the leave vote were people who blamed others -specifically Europeans and immigrants – for ‘taking their jobs’, and given the poll leads Leave achieved in places like Barnsley, Hartlepool and Sunderland I’d say it’s no surprise that the average Leave vorer is less well off than the average Remain voter

    Also with regards to happiness, I personally despair at the current things going on in the world around me – from stuff like Brexit to more specifically evil things like Russia’s bombing of hospitals in Syria – but none of it has any effect on my personal life and how happy I am in it – although I’m sure that notion would be challenged if a year from now the world is ruled by the likes of Wilders, Trump and Le Penn

  30. “given the poll leads Leave achieved in places like Barnsley, Hartlepool and Sunderland I’d say it’s no surprise that the average Leave vorer is less well off than the average Remain voter”

    I’m not an expert but I have some doubts about that way of looking at things.

    Obviously the average Remain voter will have a higher income, given how well Remain did in Inner London.

    But income does not necessarily measure how well off someone is. Taking into account cost of living and housing, someone on £20,000 per year in Barnsley is arguably as well off as someone on £60,000 per year in Islington.

    And standard of living is set by wealth and asset accumulation as well as income….many Leave voting pensioners will have a fairly low income but own their own houses outright and are able to enjoy several holidays per year.

  31. Some hilarious comments up thread about the supposed characteristics of Remain voters. Some Remainers seem quite the little Thatcherites these days.

  32. HH – that’s true.

    Indeed some of the boroughs that voted Leave up here (Blackpool, Stoke, Knowsley, etc) were also in the top 25 of those deemed the most affordable places to live due to housing, food & transport costs in the academic study [I forget which Uni but it was in the NW] in 2012.

  33. Which reminds me of the disconnect between Party HQs & the media v Party members – when they stopped going to Blackpool and instead chose Birmingham & Manchester, where room rates were double that of the seaside towns. As well as food & taxis costing more (whereas they used to walk to and from B&B to Conf venue over the 80 years Conf was held Blackpool). Because MPs and journalists usually have their passes paid for.

  34. ‘Some hilarious comments up thread about the supposed characteristics of Remain voters. Some Remainers seem quite the little Thatcherites these days.’

    Hmm yes, you do have to wonder at the mental state of people who describe themselves as ‘happy’ and ‘good looking’ but spend hours and hours posting vitriolic stuff on politics sites…

  35. ‘Hmm yes, you do have to wonder at the mental state of people who describe themselves as ‘happy’ and ‘good looking’ ‘

    Whilst that little dig is no doubt intended at me I’ve never actually described myself as either – I was merely pointing out that in most of these Western world liberal v conservative debates it’s increasingly the ‘have nots’ that make up the backbone of the conservative cause, which is a fundamental change of how such things used to run

    In day’s gone by it was the ‘have nots’ that supported progressive measures

  36. If you guys like to bet do not put money on this seat. Utterly unpredictable. Tulip’s very good anf the council is Labor but the Tories have been attacking this seat for an age and have held it before when it was Hampstead and Highgate. It’s going to be won by 500 votes either side honestly.

  37. My guess is the Tories might fail again here. Prime Con>LD switching territory so the result might not quite be a repeat of 2010 but it might not be far off.

  38. @Jack

    ”My guess is the Tories might fail again here. Prime Con>LD switching territory so the result might not quite be a repeat of 2010 but it might not be far off.”

    Well if you mean a three way marginal then no. Despite the rather extreme Lib Dem ramping we’ve been hearing lately they start the campaign on ~10% nationally and thus even if they rise a bit over the campaign will only make modest gains. Due to the nature of this seat they should get an above average rise maybe to ~20% but they’ll be nowhere near to winning.

    However if you mean a very narrow Lab hold over Con then possibly but it is important do remember despite the Lib Dem narrative they are winning more votes of Labour than the Tories. The Tory vote share will probably fall a few points but the question is whether Labour fall past them or not.

    Though I do agree it will be one of the more difficult seats on their target list for the Tories to gain.

  39. I said ‘not quite 2010 but not far off’, by which I mean, say, LAB 37, CON 35, LD 23

  40. I think you’re correct Jack. That’s ny feel.

  41. Notwithstanding that it’s a strong REMAIN seat, I believe that the Tories are favourites here to win

  42. Win on an X% reduced vote-share, I.e. losing some to LD, but Labour losing more.

  43. This has to be a good prospect for the Conservatives. They will know all about Corbyn here and his type of Labour.

    This will mean that the Lib Dems will be squeezed and many of the more affluent ones will hold their noses and vote Conservative. Labour’s tax policies won’t help either.

    The other factor is the timing of the election means that many student voters will be away after term ends and this will help the Conservatives too.

  44. I think Lab will increase their share here. I’m not sure May will appeal as much as DC did in this area and I can see less tactical voting and also the trend of Con -> LD being bigger than Lab -> LD/Green

    Students aren’t really a factor in a constituency like this, far a start most will still be around in early June but I don’t think there is that big a student popn here anyway (can’t think of any halls).

    I’m not sure what the demographic trends are going in a place like this, Queens Park feels more and more like an extension of Notting Hill while another 2 years may have culled a few more older voters?

  45. I disagree Plop. I’ll go out and canvas here at some point and let you know how it feels. There’s no way the majority for this seat for either party exceeds 1500. Tulip could hold onto this. She has first-time incumbency and the really affluent areas are no longer lock-it-up Tory weigh the votes strongholds. And Kilburn high road? Tonnes of Labour votes. This is a seat that will hang in the balance and anything could happen. I know you’re a Tory Plop but you can be a little less biased.

    #funfact The Aldi on Kilburn high street is the busiest store in Europe.

  46. Siddiq was actually campaigning in Kilburn High ROAD this morning at about 11am. I overheard her say to a well wisher. .”I need all the help I can get!”

  47. Lol I always do that. Sorry Alex. Always mix up Kilburn High Street and Kilburn High Road. Well at least shes up front about XD Nah I won’t predict this seat. When I get a feel well see.

  48. In the current climate this feels like it ought to be a LibDem seat, but they start a long way behind.

  49. This seat has become considerably split into very different communities; but give current opinion polls I cannot see Labour saving it..

    Glenda Jackson did exceptionally well to hang on in 2010, and this also saved her successor in 2015.

    The LibDem vote was badly squeezed in 2015. They may well do better this time; but not enough better to win.

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