Hampstead & Kilburn

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22839 (42.3%)
Labour: 23977 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 3039 (5.6%)
Green: 2387 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1532 (2.8%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 77 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1138 (2.1%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Parts of Camden and Brent council areas.

Main population centres: Hampstead, Kilburn, Kendal Rise.

Profile: Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia, although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area. Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. Gentrification is having its effect even here though and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.

Politics: Hampstead and Kilburn was created for the 2010 election, a cross borough seat based on the old Hampstead and Highgate seat of Glenda Jackson and the Brent East seat of Sarah Teather, who opted to fight the Brent Central seat instead. In 2010 the result was an extremely tight three-way finish between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat with Labour only winning by 42 votes. In 2015 the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed, but the battle between Labour and Conservative remained tight, with Tulip Siddiq winning by only two percent.


Current MP
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Former corporate communications executive. First elected as MP for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17290 (33%)
Lab: 17332 (33%)
LDem: 16491 (31%)
GRN: 759 (1%)
Oth: 950 (2%)
MAJ: 42 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10886 (29%)
Lab: 14615 (38%)
LDem: 10293 (27%)
GRN: 2013 (5%)
Oth: 366 (1%)
MAJ: 3729 (10%)
2001
Con: 8725 (25%)
Lab: 16601 (47%)
LDem: 7273 (21%)
GRN: 1654 (5%)
Oth: 1154 (3%)
MAJ: 7876 (22%)
1997
Con: 11991 (27%)
Lab: 25275 (57%)
LDem: 5481 (12%)
Oth: 617 (1%)
MAJ: 13284 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hampstead & Highgate

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON MARCUS (Conservative) Born Hampstead. Educated at City of London School and Kings College London. Camden councillor since 2012. Contested Barking 2010.
TULIP SIDDIQ (Labour) Born 1982, Mitcham, granddaughter of Sheikj Mujibur Rahman, first President of Bangledesh. Educated at University College London. Corporate communications executive.
MAAJID NAWAZ (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Westcliff on Sea. Educated at Westcliff High School for Boys and SOAS. Executive director of Quilliam Foundation. Former member of extremist group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, he left HUT in 2007 to become a campaigner against extremism. Received death threats in 2013 for tweeting a Jesus and Mo cartoon.
MAGNUS NIELSEN (UKIP) Educated at George Dixons Grammar School and University of London. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2001, Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Hampstead and Kilburn 2010.
REBECCA JOHNSON (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Academic and nuclear disarmament expert.
ROBIN ELLISON (U Party) Educated at Manchester Grammar School and Cambridge University. Pensions lawyer. Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds.
THE EUROVISIONARY CARROLL (Independent) Born 1934, Belfast. Singer and entertainer. British entrant to the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963.. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 1997, Uxbridge by-election 1997, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Haltemprice 2008 by-election. Died on 13th April 2015, after the close of nominations.
Links
Comments - 765 Responses on “Hampstead & Kilburn”
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  1. Below is a link to a Conservative target list for the next election I have constructed, which includes candidates selected. Hampstead & Kilburn is at the top of the list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc

  2. Glenda Jackson’s controversial speech in the House of Commons today in the Baroness Thatcher tributes debate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=XDtClJYJBj8

  3. It was a Private Eye parody – Dave Spart in a Grim Up North London setting.

    Extra irony in that the only role anyone remembers Glenda in was Elizabeth I.

  4. I remember her very well as Madame Tchaikovsky, as I am sure many others will. She is noted for being entirely naked in the film.

  5. Testing out AW’s new comments pickup.

    I didn’t know that Dan Hodges was Glenda’s son.

    It seems everyone is related to someone else.

  6. Richard – it’s not there yet, I need to find something suitable and get it formatted up.

  7. Labour selection timetable

    Applications Close: 27 May 2013
    Meet the Candidates: 9 June 2013
    Shortlisting Interviews: 23 June 2013
    Selection meeting and count: Sunday 14 July 2013

  8. Hampstead and Kilburn is safe for Labour because the Lib Dem swing to Labour will be a massive boost for the party and give Labour a stronger majority – within the realm of thousands of votes. That being said, had Glenda Jackson stepped down in 2010, then the Tories would have taken the seat. As for candidates, as it is an AWS, I suspect the race will probably involve Sally Gimson, Georgia Gould, Tulip Siddiq and Fiona Millar. I do not have a clue who’d win.

  9. Fiona Millar has decided not to run. Gimson and Tulip Siddiq have launched their campaigning website. Hackney Cllr Sophie Linden is also said to be in the run.

  10. Thanks, Andrea. Nothing on Georgia Gould?

  11. I could be wrong but I think the Millar-Campbell’s of Hampstead would probably swing behind Sally Gimson and perhaps this is why Millar did not run? As they live in Gospel Oak, they would fall into Frank Dobson’s seat and I think It was said by Kevin Maguire that part of the reason Frank Dobson held on in the seat instead of retiring in 2010 and still may cling onin 2015 is due to AWS and Fiona Millar succeeding him.

    What I think is interesting is that with Hampstead (Camden) paired up with Kilburn (Brent), its a little too unpredictable perhaps than if it just was Hampstead and Highgate as it was before 2010.

    Tulip Siddiq’s aunt may be Prime Minister of Bangladesh, but come on, barely 30 years of age, a little inexperienced in life to be MP?

  12. Kokopops, you keep on talking about how much you want BAME candidates to stand in selections and get selected, but then your refuse to support Tulip Siddiq. She does have experience and anyway, Janet Daby is of a similar age to Tulip so I think you’re operating under double standards. It is rumoured that Frank Dobson will stand down in 2015, but we don’t know (I think he will, he’ll get be getting quite old) and Fiona Millar does not want to be an MP if you have not heard. Personally, I’d like Georgia Gould to be the Labour candidate for this seat.

  13. @Bob as much as I want to see more BAME candidates, they also need to have sufficient life experience too – I can’t stand careerist and that includes BAME ones too. Janet Daby is a decade older than Tulip Siddiq and has been a social worker, foster care manager etc what has Tulip Sidiqqi has worked for her friends dad’s company and worked in an MPs office but very little else…don’t compare the two of them.

    Fiona Millar said that she would not seek to be Labour PPC for Hampstead and Kilurn but did she actually rule out ever becoming an MP – I’m not sure she ever did.

    And so what if Frank Dobson and his like are getting old, I’d have much rather prinicpled and experienced MPs rather than careerist, and inexperienced people like Georgia Gould and Tulip Siddiqi trading off of their family connection

  14. Well said that man.

  15. Well said that man!

    or woman.

  16. You make a good point, but I respectfully disagree.

  17. I would have thought Sally Gimson (who stood in S Leicestershire in 2010) and Georgia Gould would be the favourites here.

    Does anyone know if Camden council leader (Sarah Hayward) and deputy leader (Patricia Callaghan) will be standing?

  18. @Matt

    Callaghan is supporting Siddiq.

    Millar’s brother (the QC) is backing Linden

    Deadline for applications close on Monday.

  19. @Matt, I thought Georgia Gould would stand here too but the Times says that she is thinking about a seat in the South. She might be ‘sent’ somewhere else. I reckon its going to be a strong race between three very good candidates. I think with the pool of talent, Labour can very confident of holding this seat.

  20. “Hampstead and Kilburn is safe for Labour because the Lib Dem swing to Labour will be a massive boost for the party and give Labour a stronger majority – within the realm of thousands of votes.”

    This would be on the assumption that there would be a swing to Labour at the next general election. If the UK swung from Lab to Con then this would be one of the constituences that the Conservatives would need to form an overall majority with a working majority.

    We can’t predict the result of a general election that is still nearly two years away.

  21. We can predict the next general election two years away, Dalek and we can predict the outcome of Hampstead and Kilburn.
    1) As I said, a Lib Dem swing to Labour helps Labour win.
    2) There will not be a swing from Con to Lab (unless there is a huge miracle which ain’t gonna happen). Why?:
    – No governing party has increased its share of the vote since 1955 (which was at the time of the popular PM Anthony Eden, rising living standards and economic boom – nothing like 2015).
    – For the Tories to win a majority, they need to at least a 5% swing from Labour to Tory – such swing from Opposition to Government has not happened since Lord Palmerston
    – We know that the Tories will be heavily divided in the run-up to 2015 for as long as Nadine Dorries, Adam Afriyie, Boris Johnson, Patrick Mercer are in the Tory Party which is a given.

    Therefore we can infer that the Tories will not be taking Hampstead and Kilburn from Labour, although my message to Labour would be to treat this seat as a target seat because had it not been for Glenda Jackson, this seat would be a Tory seat.

  22. i think you’re mystic bob ha ha

  23. You are picking and choosing your stats a bit there Bob, but fair enough.
    For example, although the share of the vote fell, I believe Mrs Thatcher increased the number of seats between 1979 and 1983.

    In any case, we haven’t had a situation like this for many, many years where no party has been governing alone so we should be prepared for any possible result.

    It’s easy to say that various seats are bound to go to Labour or stay Labour, but then in 2010 one would have expected a lot of seats to go to the Tories, which did not.

  24. Hector, you are argument does not stack up. I am not picking and choosing stats, the fact remains that no PM has increased their share of the vote since 1955 (a time of a postwar economic boom, rising living standards and a popular PM). The reason why Thatcher was able to gain seats was because of the Left was irrevocably split between a Labour that was unfit to govern and the SDP. The Tories did make some substantial gains in 2010 and Labour need to take seats back, but the reason why the Tories looked as if they were going to win a majority was because Gordon Brown was a dreadfully unpopular PM.

  25. Thatcher would have increased her vote in 83 had the SDP not been formed. I think the fall was so marginal that is hardly up for debate.

  26. Right, so by your logic there Bob, Mrs Thatcher would not have picked up more seats if the left was not split, and the Tories only made gains because Brown was unpopular.

    So in other words, are you saying that people will always turn to Labour by default unless there is a specific reason not to?

    Not really sure history backs that up to be honest.

  27. ‘No governing party has increased its share of the vote since 1955 (which was at the time of the popular PM Anthony Eden, rising living standards and economic boom – nothing like 2015).’

    That assertion is not correct. Harold Wilson increased Labour’s % share of the vote in 1966 compared to 1964 – and did so again in Oct 1974 in relation to Feb 1974.

  28. Brent Liberal Democrat councillor Carol Shaw defects to the Conservative Party

    http://www.kilburntimes.co.uk/news/brent_liberal_democrat_councillor_defects_to_the_conservative_party_1_2229163

  29. Cllr Carol Shaw joins the Conservatives – Brondesbury http://www.hampsteadandkilburn.org/news/cllr-carol-shaw-joins-conservatives

  30. Sally Gimson has certainly hit the ground running to be the new Labour candidate – very impressive website. I like her – she’s an engaging character, very articulate, sends her kids to local schools, and intriguingly, is married to a member of the Conservative party – journalist Andrew Gimson. Although he has made it clear that he will always vote for her because she can get things done

    Of course Gro Haarlem Bruntland, the former Norwegian Labour PM, is married to an academic and at one time , Conservative MP in Norway – and both of them were international relations specialists!

    There’s also the Bercows, but I don’t think John would be a Tory these days anyway.

  31. All three women are very strong candidates and I don’t care who gets it because they’d be excellent.

  32. Theres me too!

  33. Some people thought it likely that Vi Attlee was a Tory.

  34. …and that her famously accident prone driving was a series of deliberate attempts to assassinate the Labour Prime Minister? 😉

  35. lol. I don’t think she would have gone quite that far…….
    Of course, their grandson is now a Tory peer. Don’t think Clem would have been too pleased about that had he lived to see it.

  36. Harold Wilson’s wife was a Tory as well.

  37. Ive seen suggestions that Samantha Cameron may have voted Labour in 97.

  38. I don’t think Wilson’s wife was actually a Tory. More that she deeply disliked politics and political life

  39. Mary Wilson was a fan of Margaret Thatcher and voted for her, which was of course years after Wilson had left office.

    I’m sure she voted for her husband when he was an MP out of loyalty.

  40. Not so much of the “was”, please – Lady Wilson is still alive.

  41. Tulip Siddiq selected for Labour.

  42. This is what impact the Northern Irish parties could have on Hampstead & Kilburn in 2015 –

    Conservative: 17000
    Sinn Fein: 10000
    Lib Dem: 9900
    Labour: 9732
    SDLP: 2000
    UKIP: 1900
    Green: 1800
    DUP: 400

    MAJORITY: 7000

  43. Why would people here be so sympathetic to Sinn Fein?

  44. Because Dalek thinks all Scottish and Irish people living in England are so thick that they would waste their vote in a general election on parties which would have no impact on their day to day existence whatsoever.

    I suspect he is also fundamentally overestimating the Irish proportion of the voting electorate here, which I’m sure has fallen somewhat since the 70s and 80s.

  45. I enjoyed the DUP winning Glasgow SW

  46. Sounds like Labour’s selection here was very acrimonious. Could be quite helpful to the Tories.

  47. Maybe if the LDs had put up McGuinness they could have won.

  48. My posts were a bit of fun, but the various parties would poll more in the constituencies identified (SNP – Berwick Upon Tweed and Corby) and SF in Hampstead & Kilburn and Glasgow East though not the levels of support allured to.

    Ibrox is situated in Glasgow South West and Celtic Park in Glasgow East.

  49. I did go for an evening out in Kilburn in 1995 and felt a slight whiff of SF/IRA types
    but suspect it has declined as has been suggested.

  50. I remember hearing rumours of rumours that the DUP considered putting up candidates in Liverpool and that SF thought of standing someone in a Glasgow by-election once upon a time.

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