Hampstead & Kilburn
2015 Result:
Conservative: 22839 (42.3%)
Labour: 23977 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 3039 (5.6%)
Green: 2387 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1532 (2.8%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 77 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1138 (2.1%)
Category: Marginal Labour seat
Geography: Greater London. Parts of Camden and Brent council areas.
Main population centres: Hampstead, Kilburn, Kendal Rise.
Profile: Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia, although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area. Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. Gentrification is having its effect even here though and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Politics: Hampstead and Kilburn was created for the 2010 election, a cross borough seat based on the old Hampstead and Highgate seat of Glenda Jackson and the Brent East seat of Sarah Teather, who opted to fight the Brent Central seat instead. In 2010 the result was an extremely tight three-way finish between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat with Labour only winning by 42 votes. In 2015 the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed, but the battle between Labour and Conservative remained tight, with Tulip Siddiq winning by only two percent.
| Con: | 17290 (33%) |
| Lab: | 17332 (33%) |
| LDem: | 16491 (31%) |
| GRN: | 759 (1%) |
| Oth: | 950 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 42 (0%) |
| Con: | 10886 (29%) |
| Lab: | 14615 (38%) |
| LDem: | 10293 (27%) |
| GRN: | 2013 (5%) |
| Oth: | 366 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 3729 (10%) |
| Con: | 8725 (25%) |
| Lab: | 16601 (47%) |
| LDem: | 7273 (21%) |
| GRN: | 1654 (5%) |
| Oth: | 1154 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 7876 (22%) |
| Con: | 11991 (27%) |
| Lab: | 25275 (57%) |
| LDem: | 5481 (12%) |
| Oth: | 617 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 13284 (30%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hampstead & Highgate
I think Part of Tulip’s decision was internal Labour Politics to increase her chances of not being deselected. Obviously wouldn’t publicly mention that.
Might not save her. Nick Boles discharged himself from chemotherapy to vote for Article 50, and local members are still going after him.
“I thought it was a conservative principle that people can be trusted to make their own life decisions”
It’s not just her life though is it, it’s that of her unborn child. I suspect like most parents, I don’t understand her mentality at all. Battling through your own personal illness to vote like Boles, well that’s entirely different.
I’m not aware there is any threat of deselection in Hampstead & Kilburn
I think that the situation maybe due to the pairing system having broken down. There were NO pairings in the VoNC, despite Siddiques predicament and the serious ill health of Lab’s Paul Fynn.
Pairing has usually been suspended in votes of no confidence which are expected to be relatively close. I agree some form of proxy voting for the genuinely infirm would be a positive development, as long as it wasn’t misused by those who are simply being lazy.
I’d be very disappointed if two gentlemanly Tories were not willing to abstain to counteract the votes of Flynn and Siddique, as Bernard Weatherill informally agreed to do in the infamous 1979 vote which brought down Callaghan.
Sky News Lewis Goddal reporting labour are concerned about the tories winning the seat in a three way battle and split remain vote.