North West Hampshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32052 (58.1%)
Labour: 7342 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 5151 (9.3%)
Green: 2541 (4.6%)
UKIP: 8109 (14.7%)
MAJORITY: 23943 (43.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
KIT MALTHOUSE (Conservative) Born 1966, Liverpool. Educated at Liverpool College and Newcastle University. Former chartered accountant. Westminster councillor 1998-2006. Contested Member of the London Assembly for West Central since 2008. First elected as MP for Hampshire North West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31072 (58%)
Lab: 6980 (13%)
LDem: 12489 (23%)
UKIP: 2751 (5%)
MAJ: 18583 (35%)
2005*
Con: 26005 (51%)
Lab: 10594 (21%)
LDem: 12741 (25%)
UKIP: 1925 (4%)
MAJ: 13264 (26%)
2001
Con: 24374 (50%)
Lab: 12365 (25%)
LDem: 10329 (21%)
UKIP: 1563 (3%)
MAJ: 12009 (25%)
1997
Con: 24730 (45%)
Lab: 12900 (24%)
LDem: 13179 (24%)
Oth: 2325 (4%)
MAJ: 11551 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
KIT MALTHOUSE (Conservative) Born 1966, Liverpool. Educated at Liverpool College and Newcastle University. Chartered accountant. Westminster councillor 1998-2006. Contested Member of the London Assembly for West Central since 2008.
ANDREW ADAMS (Labour)
ALEX PAYTON (Liberal Democrat) Barrister. Contested Havant 2010.
SUSAN PERKINS (UKIP)
DAN HILL (Green)
Links
Comments - 140 Responses on “Hampshire North West”
  1. Both Alamein and Charlton are Andover to anyone who lives here and they have over 13,000 residents

  2. Alex Payton chosen this evening as LibDem PPC for NW Hants..

    He was LibDem PPC for Havant in 2010

  3. A lamb ripe for slaughter. UKIP likely to be 2nd here I think (and in Havant). Lib Dems probably 4th. I can imagine a lot of ambitious Lib Dem candidates sitting out 2015, not wanting a thrashing on their CV.

  4. Thanks Hemmelig for your expert assessment there…

  5. HH is probably right about LD candidates. They still have 400 to select with about 18 weeks to go to close of nominations, not what you’d expect from a party of national government.

  6. It almost makes it worse (that they know the GE date) and yet Tories and LibDems have yet to select hundreds of PPCs each. How many Green PPCs?

  7. My candidates’ spreadsheet gives the numbers. I’ll be updating it again at the weekend, last update was five days ago:

    http://bit.ly/Xb3122

  8. Labour PPC for NW Hants

    Andy Adams
    @_AndyAdams_

    Delighted to be confirmed as PPC for North West Hampshire – looking forward to the campaign! http://bit.ly/1vYeaxL

  9. Why on earth is Diane James standing for UKIP here? Surely there are other seats where she’d actually have a chance (and as one of UKIP’s few PPCs who’ve come across well in the public eye, she could be an asset).

    Looks like a battle for second here between UKIP, Lab and possibly LD.

  10. The same reason Patrick O Flynn is standing in Cambridge, she doesn’t want to win.

  11. As Diane James is coming in from Waverley (I presume the part in Mid Sussex) so could be argued to be as much of a parachute candidate as Kit Malthouse is..

    With very few “foreigners” in NW Hants, she may not find much fertile ground for the immigration part of the UKIP platform..

    Going on past UKIP practice it may be useful to watch her spending like a hawk to ensure EU funds are not propping up the campaign..

  12. Would agree with Joe that the only possible conclusion is that she doesn’t want to win.

    It does seem strange though – she is definitely one of the more ‘likeable’ UKIP senior team, however unlike Farage she doesn’t have a sufficiently high public profile to be particularly influential if she isn’t an MP. So unless she just isn’t interested in a high profile career, I would have thought it would have made sense to stand her in one of the few seats which UKIP could realistically challenge in.

  13. In the event that Kit Malthouse resigns his seat in the London Assembly if he (all but certainly) holds this seat for the Conservatives, the London Assembly will see the first by-election in its 15-year history, which again, Mr Malthouse’s party will all but certainly win. (The West Central constituency, which includes the London Boroughs of Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, and Hammersmith and Fulham – the latter of which has been Labour territory in the past.)

  14. Diane James hit the streets of Andover with the sole UKIP councillor..

    https://twitter.com/AndoverUK/status/551824224130973696/photo/1

  15. Harry – very surprised to see something akin to an error from you – Labour took control of Hammersmith & Fulham in May last year, and I both canvassed & attended the victory party. That said, you are obviously correct that the Conservatives would easily win W Central.

  16. West Central is certainly winnable for Labour in certain circumstances but I doubt they will be present in June/July. Harry draws out attention to a very interesting fact of which I was not previously aware, that there has not been a GLA by-election hitherto

  17. “West Central is certainly winnable for Labour in certain circumstances”

    Definitely true. When the seat was first fought in 2000, near the height of the Blair popularity, I know for a fact that the Tories were not entirely confident of winning West Central, nor indeed any GLA constituency except for Bexley & Bromley. Their result significantly surpassed their private expectations, despite Norris being trounced in the mayoral vote.

    You’re right that the Tories should be safe enough there in current circumstances.

  18. PS however I seriously doubt Kit Malthouse would resign his GLA seat with only a year left to go until the 2016 elections.

    Neither Bob Neill nor Andrew Pelling nor Meg Hillier did so in similar circumstances, though unlike Malthouse their parliamentary seats are/were all in London.

  19. PPS, if Malthouse resigns his seat presumably Andrew Dismore would feel compelled to do likewise? A by-election in Barnet & Camden would be far more interesting than West Central, with a Tory regain definitely likely if Cameron loses the election.

  20. Interesting. Of course, in that case Dismore would be representing part of his GLA constituency as an MP. And the Tories wouldn’t have the insurmountable disadvantage of having Brian Coleman as their candidate.

  21. Plus they will probably be in opposition and won’t have to worry about Dismore’s personal vote. Like you however I doubt there will be any GLA byelections. The party leaderships won’t want them and the positions are too obscure to cause much of a public outcry.

  22. Malthouse (Parachute Man) claims to have “landed” in Abbotts Ann (a village outside Andover) in the local Tory material… whether “landed” means moved residence to the constituency isn’t clear…

  23. An interesting old article that gives a clue of which way this guy thinks…. he was almost Farage-like in his attendance record..

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/24/boris-johnson-deputy-mayor-kit-malthouse

  24. The brains, the money and the organisational man of the UKIP in NW Hants has now officially decamped… The County Councillor Tony Hooke has become an independent… This will leave Diane James a fair bit adrift and wishing she had chosen a more prospective seat..

    He was essentially the public face of UKIP in Andover providing even their premises…. I had even heard he was the electoral agent for the campaign…

  25. A quite bizarre choice from Diane James to stand here.

    Even people who are anti-UKIP find her to be perfectly acceptable as a candidate and would consider voting for her.

    Surely you’d stand one of your best candidates (if not the best candidate) in a seat where you’ve a core of voters already in place and with plenty of helpers to campaign?

  26. It’s a bit like with Patrick O’Flynn in Cambridge and Paul Nuttall in Bootle, the answer is quite simply they don’t want to be MPs.

  27. The Results must be right…. her base is mid-Sussex.. if she had travelled the same distance but heading east she would have found more organised ground….

    I can not overestimate how much Hooke IS (was) UKIP here..

  28. ‘Even people who are anti-UKIP find her to be perfectly acceptable as a candidate and would consider voting for her.’

    I agree Luke – she seems well too level-headed to belomg to UKIP

    So too O’Flynn who comea across more like a social democrat than a hardline right-winger

    It does seem odd that neither seem that bothered about becoming an MP

  29. I agree with The Results, clearly now James has her sinecure she’s got no interest in fighting to win as an MP. Andover itself is decent ground for UKIP (as the counties showed) but the rest of the seat is poor territory for them. Rural, wealthy commuter territory is not the best ground for them.

    Antiochian, James is a councillor in South West Surrey, not Mid Sussex.

  30. This is just what I personally assumed TBH. I don’t see why a high-profile UKIP MEP would do it otherwise really.

  31. I wonder incidentally if the Lib Dem candidate here, Alex Payton, will finally get a winnable seat to fight in 2020, after contesting his first seat in Havant in 2010?

  32. That may depend on how many seats are in the “winnable” category in 2020, The Results; the LDs may not have many of them to spare 😛

  33. LOL that’s exactly what I was thinking!

  34. Alex Payton could perhaps one day be MP for Eastleigh.

  35. I expect James to take second place comfortably.

  36. You expect right Andy. I would envisage the result as being something like this personally-
    Malthouse (Conservative)- 50%
    James (UKIP)- 22%
    Adams (Labour)- 14%
    Payton (Lib Dem)- 11%
    Hill (Green)- 3%

  37. Good luck with James at 22%.. she apparently didn’t even know her agent had gone and commented “maybe that’s why I haven’t heard from him for a while”..

  38. Right. Ha ha!

  39. Here is Hooke’s parting gift to James… a welter of recriminations:

    https://audioboom.com/boos/2914696-hampshire-cllr-tony-hooke-quits-ukip

    refers to his erstwhile UKIP colleagues as dirty men in anoraks.. or does he mean “men in dirty anoraks”? The first version has quite a different spin on it..

    Before calling this isolated to here, I have heard that this actually relates to the events in Portsmouth over the person that has precipitated ructions in that neck of the woods including the decamping of the PPC for Fareham.

  40. Wonder why the Tories have recovered so well here since 1997?

  41. Sir George’s personal vote and LibDem disorganisation…

    The former is gone from May and the latter I am dealing with since moving from Winchester

  42. The Lib Dems will mount a challenge here one day I’m sure!

  43. Well, the demographic is here… and maybe Labour will get their act together too..

  44. True. I guess Sir George Young did have a good personal vote going off his most recent result, I suppose given the Lib Dem’s struggle for progress it’s not surprising as he’s probably been the right Tory for this seat as I think he’s quite moderate- probably appeals to people who might be small l liberal.

  45. If UKIP are on 15% nationally, it pretty much guarantees them at least 20% in a seat like this IMO.

  46. Agreed with that. Easy second place for Diane James in spite of everything mentioned further up the page.

  47. I agree UKIP will probably get a very distant second here with the Lib Dems languishing in a poor third. The Lib Dems may be able to challenge here one day but I don’t think it will be for a very long time. As for Labour they will probably fade into irrelevance here (if they were ever really relevant in the first place), this is the sort of seat which is going to get even worse for them with time not better.

  48. And agreed with all that as well. Boringly Tory for the next few elections at the very least. Were it not for Diane James and Kit Malthouse being the new Tory candidate and almost certain to be the next MP there’d be precious little interesting about this seat.

  49. And Diane James has now stood down:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31676897

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