North West Hampshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32052 (58.1%)
Labour: 7342 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 5151 (9.3%)
Green: 2541 (4.6%)
UKIP: 8109 (14.7%)
MAJORITY: 23943 (43.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
KIT MALTHOUSE (Conservative) Born 1966, Liverpool. Educated at Liverpool College and Newcastle University. Former chartered accountant. Westminster councillor 1998-2006. Contested Member of the London Assembly for West Central since 2008. First elected as MP for Hampshire North West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31072 (58%)
Lab: 6980 (13%)
LDem: 12489 (23%)
UKIP: 2751 (5%)
MAJ: 18583 (35%)
2005*
Con: 26005 (51%)
Lab: 10594 (21%)
LDem: 12741 (25%)
UKIP: 1925 (4%)
MAJ: 13264 (26%)
2001
Con: 24374 (50%)
Lab: 12365 (25%)
LDem: 10329 (21%)
UKIP: 1563 (3%)
MAJ: 12009 (25%)
1997
Con: 24730 (45%)
Lab: 12900 (24%)
LDem: 13179 (24%)
Oth: 2325 (4%)
MAJ: 11551 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
KIT MALTHOUSE (Conservative) Born 1966, Liverpool. Educated at Liverpool College and Newcastle University. Chartered accountant. Westminster councillor 1998-2006. Contested Member of the London Assembly for West Central since 2008.
ANDREW ADAMS (Labour)
ALEX PAYTON (Liberal Democrat) Barrister. Contested Havant 2010.
SUSAN PERKINS (UKIP)
DAN HILL (Green)
Links
Comments - 125 Responses on “Hampshire North West”
  1. Sir George Young is retiring.

  2. A real shame. He brings much needed ballast and experience to the cabinet.

  3. He would have made a good Speaker IMO.

  4. I agree its a pity. I could have seen him as Father of the House in a decade or so.

  5. It is very hard to dislike Sir George Young who amazingly is the last baronet in the Conservative Party in Parliament. Perhaps some on the right wing of his party might dislike him more than I would though. One of his middle names is Knatchbull so I don’t know if that makes him related to some part of the royal family in some way. (I know that Ian Liddell-Grainger, MP for Bridgwater & W Somerset, is related to them & is said to be approximately 594th in line to the throne!)

  6. Some speculation in various places that Boris might be interested in this seat.

  7. ‘Perhaps some on the right wing of his party might dislike him more than I would though.’

    He’s positively despised by the Right – not just in his own party but amongst the tabloid press too – who have always hated those Tories who dare to have a social conscience

    A bit similar to Chris Pattern

  8. ‘It is very hard to dislike Sir George Young who amazingly is the last baronet in the Conservative Party in Parliament…’

    Of course, George Osborne is heir to a baronetcy.

    ‘He’s positively despised by the Right’

    I think that’s a bit strong, although no doubt he didn’t endear himself to the right of the party by rebelling over the Poll Tax.

  9. A surprising number of Tory right wingers did not like the poll tax, though admittedly few of them felt able to vote against it.

    Nigel Lawson hated the idea from the start. Alan Clark didn’t share Lawson’s hatred of the poll tax but his diaries certainly communicate that from an early stage he thought it was a completely unworkable system.

  10. Jonathan Aitken was another right winger who voted against the poll tax – or at least voted for the Mates ammendment to it

  11. Actually Barnaby, Mr Liddell-Grainger is a bit more royal than that, being a direct decendent of Queen Victoria, I think he is somewhere in the mid-300’s in line.

  12. Prediction for 2015-
    Conservative- 55%
    Liberal Democrat- 19%
    Labour- 17%
    UKIP- 9%

  13. Interesting Telegraph article Andy, full of allusions to rugger and balls becoming loose at the back of the scrum etc. No-one but Boris (or possibly the much fawned upon Farage) would get away with this. Imagine what would happen if George Osborne spoke in such metaphors!

    Hampshire NW is perhaps not the ideal seat in some ways – Andover is over 70 miles from London, but I suppose it’s in the outer commuting penumbra. Certainly looks rock solid safe, although the Conservatives only really pushed their vote up sharply last time. At the 3 elections before that they got around 50% and the Lib Dems and Labour roughly equally shared the rest.

  14. There is certainly quite a bit of commuting from Andover, and from Whitchurch and Overton too.

  15. Of course Andrew Mitchell’s dad was MP for this seat until 1997 when Sir George Young took over. (Always think his name sounds like a character out of an Agatha Christie novel).

  16. Perhaps I’m in a minority, but I do not think Boris could remain mayor of London while representing a non-London seat. London would be pretty outraged and the furore would damage both Boris’s prospects and the Tory vote in 2016. Ideally he should serve out his term, which remember he solemnly promised to do when I voted for him in 2012. If he really wants to return to the HoC in 2015 and the only suitable seat is outside London I increasingly think there will be irresistible pressure for a mayoral by-election.

  17. Will Boris go for a seat in time for 2020 perhaps? I personally could see him aiming for any number of safe seats across Greater London and further afield, in fact I made a list on the Henley thread.

  18. An interesting series of points here. I don’t think BJ can remotely afford to wait until 2020 to get back into the Commons – he would completely miss the boat if Cameron resigns (or is forced out) either immediately after the 2015 election or in the subsequent 5 years before 2020. In any case, in 2020 he will be several years older and other younger contenders will certainly have appeared in the Tory firmament. That begs the question, as HH says, of what he will do if he gets elected for a rural seat 70-plus miles away from London in 2015. I actually think he would try and do both jobs – after all, it’s only a year. All bets would be off of course if Cameron were to go and Johnson were to become leader of the party. This would certainly be incompatible with being Mayor of London. I think he’s got a major dilemma on his hands. Surely, whatever he does, he cannot risk waiting for a parliamentary seat beyond 2015. There is no guarantee that a suitable by-election would come up between 2016-20.

  19. “I actually think he would try and do both jobs – after all, it’s only a year.”

    He already has a reputation for being lazy and neglecting his main job for sidelines, like his newspaper column.

    The Evening Standard and the left wing press will all be running articles on how Boris is trousering a huge mayoral salary whilst spending his time sat in the house of commons and neglecting London. It will completely ruin his chances of leading the party (which aren’t high anyway) and will hand Labour the 2016 mayoral election on a plate.

    If the Tories lose in 2015 Boris will have no interest in being leader of the opposition. He only wants to be PM. That can only happen if Cameron wins in 2015 and hands over mid-term. Boris should serve out his term and get a by-election engineered for him after May 2016.

  20. I am not sure that Boris would have no interest in being leader of the opposition. I would have thought he would have huge interest in the role.

  21. And why would DC win the election and then hand over mid-term? No Tory has ever done this in the modern era, except for the unwell Macmillan.

  22. If Cameron doesn’t form the next government, I wouldn’t be opposed to Theresa May becoming leader. She’s a capable and straight-talking operator who doesn’t need big theatrics or a flamboyant character to be effective.

  23. There is of course the question whether Boris would care about handing Labour the 2016 mayoral contest on a plate. He’s not known for his party loyalty, there isn’t any obvious Tory replacement and they could always go with the spin that London is a Labour city anyway.

  24. Would depend on who the Labour candidate is though. Boris (or if he stands down, his replacement) would retain if it was against a Diane Abbott or Eddie Izzard. Labour might have stood a chance even in 2012 were it not for Ken being the candidate. Their best bet is Tessa Jowell.

  25. Kit Malthouse wins Conservative nomination

  26. He’s from Liverpool originally.

  27. Yet again GLA membership is showed to be a fast track to a safe Tory seat.

    What has happened to Cameron forcing Boris to seek a constituency for 2015, as per the gossip a few months ago? As I predicted, the blond one has given him the slip yet again. My bet is Boris won’t be standing anywhere next May.

  28. Thanks Andrea. Yes, Kit Malthouse stood in Liverpool Wavertree in 1997 and became a Deputy Mayor of London.

  29. In my opinion, there need to be laws to stop parties parachuting candidates from just anywhere into safe seats-and electoral reform to abolish safe seats altogether. This can be achieved by requiring prospective candidates for a constituency to live within the county the constituency is in (for Rutland, candidates can come from either Rutland or Leicestershire) and by replacing our failed FPTP system with STV and multi-member constituencies.

  30. That, with respect is totally ridiculous. – The bit about having to come from the same county as your seat.

  31. Joe R – I agree. Although it may be wise for the parties to limit how many seats a PPPC can apply for. I recall one Tory woman in the North West became a laughing stock by applying to 30 seats from Cumbria to the South West coast. To the extent that her car broke down driving to the 12th one! I was also surprised to read today, that Andrea Leadsom attended a selection meeting in Reading in 2003, 4 hours after giving birth. Now that’s ambition!

  32. Me three. I live in North West Leicestershire, but walking distance from Rushcliffe and Broxtowe, and a short drive to South Derbyshire. I don’t see any justification for me being banned from running in one of those seats, while someone from as far away as Buxton or Retford could run with no difficulty.

  33. Leaving your baby 4 hours after giving birth is not only physically very difficult, it is frankly an absolutely hideous thing for a mother to do. The first day of bonding and breastfeeding with its mother is arguably the most important day of a baby’s life, and successful ingestions of breast milk from the first half day of life bring massively important health benefits for the baby. I really question whether that story is true. It is something you might expect from a Jade Goody or a Katie Price, not a middle class prospective Tory MP.

  34. HH – I imagine if anything it’s more common amongst the ‘too posh to push’ brigade than Royle Family types.

  35. I don’t disagree with you though I abhor that mentality. I imagine the blue rinse ladies in her constituency association must have given her a very hard time about it though. How to be a good mother and an MP at the same time has traditionally led to difficulties for women in Tory selections.

  36. Although this seat is very much safe as houses for the Conservatives, I think it’s interesting to look at what’s happened to the Lib Dems here.

    In 2001, they fell by 2.9%. Because of this, though they had an increase of 3.7% in their vote share in 2005, they weren’t all that much up on their 1997 position. Then last time, in 2010, instead of increasing their vote, they fell back again, by 1.5%. I don’t know what their fortunes have been like locally here in Test Valley, but it does seem a little bit striking when you look at their results here I think. They are behind their 1997 vote share by 0.7%, whereas the national rise since then for the Lib Dems has been in the order of 6.2%.

  37. Sir David Mitchell died today at the age of 86.

  38. Its interesting that commentators think that its been such a safe seat Tory seat. Having lived here for 4 months now and having formerly been between Winchester and Eastleigh, I can say that the vast bulk of Andover (which is frankly what the seat is) is rather akin to Eastleigh and in some areas is very downmarket from Eastleigh. The King Arthur estate is known as the “ghetto”..

    Its no surprise Labour had 24% a few elections back and probably surprising they did not have quite a bit more.

    The town only had 5,000 people until the 1950s when a massive ethnic cleansing by the GLC moved East Enders out to Hants… now its 55,000

    The seat has a lot less upscale elements than Winchester for example. While Lib and Lab divide the non-Tory vote Malthouse is a strong favorite but there is no reason why that should be demographically…

    One should not interpret “villages” as being Tory territory either as Whitchurch, the second population centre of the seat is rather LibDem (just as Twyford in Winchester is solidly LibDem). The other villages in the seat are very insignificant (the Clatfords, for instance) population-wise.

    I am told Sir George Young has a good personal vote.. (one might guess at 5-10%)..Malthouse is quite obviously being parachuted in and might as well be a Martian with antennae sticking out of his head as far as the locals are concerned…

  39. Quite surprised the seat isn’t named Andover given its size – especially goven that the previous seat was called that when it had far fewer people living in it

  40. I’d agree.. or at least Andover & Whitchurch… population breakdown must be 80%/10%/10% with the other 10% being the rural bits

    House building frenzy on the north-east side of the town must have also added several thousand new bodies since 2010..

  41. Andover is nothing like 80% of the population though it may well be over 50%.
    I also don;t think its ‘interesting’ that commentators ‘think’ this has been a safe Tory seat. Itr self-evidently has been a safe Tory seat since it’s creation with majorities in 5 figures even in the disastrous years of 1997 and 2001. Your having lived there for 4 months doesn’t alter that fact. You may well think it should not be as safely Tory as it is but thats a different matter. Andover, for all its overspill estates has very rarely returned any Labour councillors in the time I’ve been following these things – even in the 1990s and Labour’s support in such areas has pretty well evaporated since then

  42. Well done Pete.

  43. So Pete.. where is the rest of the population hiding?

    Weyhill?

  44. Andover’s population, via the out of date Wikipedia is 52,000… Whitchurch is supposedly 4,800…

  45. Overton is 4,400.. please do go on… so there are 40,000 people living in the hills of North west Hants?

  46. “I am told Sir George Young has a good personal vote.. (one might guess at 5-10%)..Malthouse is quite obviously being parachuted in”

    But Sir George was parachuted in as well, to save him from certain defeat in the redrawn Acton constituency….yet this gave him a 5-10% personal vote?

  47. The population of this constituency on 2011 census figures was 100,836 of which 42,359 were living in the six wards covering the Andover area (this is being generous as Charlton ward is entirely outside the parish of Andover and Alamein partly so). Whitchurch had a population of 5,234.
    53,243 lived elsewhere (eg Tadley which is twice the size of Whitchurch).
    Andover contains 42% of the population of this seat and a slightly lower 40% of the electorate (Dec 2011 figures)

  48. how was sir george “parachuted in”? ok, he had nothing to do with the seat previously, but that’s almost like saying thatcher was “parachuted” into Finchley.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)