But what do I know?

Rumour now has it that the former campaign manager/agent who sunk James’ campaign will now run as an independent, further fractionating the UKIP vote..

#UKIP’s new PPC for North West #Hampshire is Malcolm Bint, appointed within days of Diane James’ departure #GE2015

Lives in Petersfield

nice name

The UKIP infighting here has now reached the scorched earth level. As all the social media manifestations of the party were managed by the former front man, who exited in a flurry of recriminations, over the weekend the former local sites (e.g. Facebook) touting UKIP have now become NW Hampshire Independents….which leaves Mr Bint rather up the creek without a paddle.

This “new” group claim to be fielding nine candidates, at least, for the Test Valley Borough all-up elections which take place on the same day as the GE, further fractionating the UKIP vote.

Malcolm Bint appears to have lasted just a few days as UKIP candidate. It’s now Susan Perkins according to this:

https://twitter.com/saperkins/status/575317440487374848

Lets see how many days Ms Perkins survives!

I know that Andy Warhol said that in the future everyone would be famous for 5 minutes: just didn’t realise that he was referring to UKIP candidates.

Funnily enough I think UKIP’s sometime amateurishness actually adds to its appeal for some people. It contrasts with the slickness of the established parties from their point of view.

I agree but there is amateurish and down right shambles and this is certainly the latter

Dark deeds alleged in the tousle between UKIPpers and ex-UKIPpers….

http://www.andoverandvillages.co.uk/home/andover-local-news-headlines/1948-ukip-accused-of-revenge-attack#!andover_broadway_garage_break_in_broadway_006

Convoluted justification from prominent local UKIPper as to why the party cycled through three PPCs in a week:

http://www.andoveradvertiser.co.uk/yoursay/12868351.We_ll_fight_vigorously_for_Sue/?ref=auk

Tories used the opportunity of their PPC’s Freepost to include fotos of the borough council candidates… Tsk, tsk… did the same in Romsey & Southampton North…

May come back to bite them…

Second Tory mailing arrived yesterday.. very expensive looking with elaborate origami folding.. much better than the Freepost.. surprised they are throwing so much money at this “safe” seat… UKIP must have them perturbed..

First Green flyer just delivered.. better late than never…

Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj

20,000?? Just back from a gruelling 6 hours of telling in blazing sun..Tories are best organised on that front…

One of their number said they expected a big reduction in vote due to the Sir George personal vote not being there…

Con hold 17,000 majority.

UKIP will be 15% or more..

Is this the safest Tory seat in the UK?

I think Highclere Castle (of Downton fame of course) was in Basingstoke from 1885 to 1983

007. I suspect that North East Hampshire, where the Conservative is 55.4% ahead of the second candidate,the LibDem, is notionally safer for the Tories. But it is pretty academic.

Happy to see NW Hants lose its most Tory bits (Stockbridge, the Clatfords, the Wallops all the military housing etc) and remain focussed on Andover, Whitchurch, Tadley and Overton, which have all been LibDem to one extent or another in the past. This might prompt the lumbering Kit Malthouse to do a chicken run to the south and slug it out with Caroline Nokes (a sight to see).

He actually ends up “living” (as he has a pseudo-residence in the twee village of Abbotts Ann) outside the constituency and in Nokes’ patch.

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/6876/2018-review?page=18#ixzz4K7WlGSaf

Will Kit Malthouse secure a place in history with the compromise plan he has brokered between JRM and Nicky Morgan, which has been endorsed by the DUP. Or will the plan collapse. Personally I still predict no deal is happening but with the blame for it being firmly placed by the government with the EU insisting on a backstop

The Anna Soubry faction still seems to be holding out against Malthouse’s plan, so even with the ERG onside there may not be the numbers in the commons for it.

The EU don’t support it either

Matt hits the nail on the head. This silly little ‘agreement’ (which, as ever, is more about management of the Tory party internally rather benefiting the country as a whole) will be completely ignored by the EU, so why should we give a flying f***. The Cooper Amendment is more interesting.

https://www.facebook.com/kit.malthouse/videos/2261698580735799/

Kit Malthouse is correct to oppose a long extension. Liberal snowflakes will never meet us with a compromise. They want to wreck the whole thing. No deal.

However a no deal is probably even less likely than a second referendum.

*splutters*

For how many months were you telling us several times a day that No Deal was a certainty?

I have changed my min – prehaps too optimistically but I am convinced the deal with pass (even the dup seem to putting out the feelers to climb down the leader). A no deal might happen in 2020/2021 when the next tory pm rips up the agreement and tried to breach International law.

Kit Malthouse has become the 10th tory Mp to enter the leadership race.

Even the political uninterested have picked up on just how many are running and making jokes.

What’s the point? I don’t think Malthouse is “make an impression in the contest, get a job in someone else’s cabinet” tier.

I expect the majority of the also-rans to drop out pretty quickly.

Hunt’s statement on the unacceptability of No Deal yesterday was significant and goes against his recent rather unprincipled behaviour.

At this stage it’s Hunt, Boris and Raab with the others lagging. Maybe a relative unknown will emerge as a contender but they aren’t visible yet.

Yes, I was surprised at Hunt yesterday (in a good way). I guess he made the calculation that if he spends this entire contest saying exactly the same thing as Johnson, Raab etc then he’ll get nowhere.

If Hunt does win, it will be interesting to see if/ where he appoints the likes of Rawb a md Johnson.

And at this stage, Hunt needs to convince MPs, of which there are still a lot of Tories who abhor the idea of No Deal, if only because of the impact on their seat and their finances.

If he gets into the final two I expect him to pivot to the right for the members vote.

I wonder who Hammond will endorse.

The Lib Dems topping the poll in his seat last week, and in the local elections, must have had an effect on Hunt as well.

I think his flip flopping will hurt him – why in a membership vote would brexit members go for him rather than Johnson or Raab?

Kit Malthouse has withdrawn from the leadership contest.

Kit Malthouse has been appointed Boris PPS – Odd appointment that being he is a serving minister and PPS even to the PM are seen as junior roles.

Kit Malthouse denies being appointed as Boris PPS.
I wonder if will be the MP for Hampshire North East instead? Strong Boris backer but a junior politician.

He has been appointed policing minster.