But what do I know?

Rumour now has it that the former campaign manager/agent who sunk James’ campaign will now run as an independent, further fractionating the UKIP vote..

#UKIP’s new PPC for North West #Hampshire is Malcolm Bint, appointed within days of Diane James’ departure #GE2015

Lives in Petersfield

nice name

The UKIP infighting here has now reached the scorched earth level. As all the social media manifestations of the party were managed by the former front man, who exited in a flurry of recriminations, over the weekend the former local sites (e.g. Facebook) touting UKIP have now become NW Hampshire Independents….which leaves Mr Bint rather up the creek without a paddle.

This “new” group claim to be fielding nine candidates, at least, for the Test Valley Borough all-up elections which take place on the same day as the GE, further fractionating the UKIP vote.

Malcolm Bint appears to have lasted just a few days as UKIP candidate. It’s now Susan Perkins according to this:

https://twitter.com/saperkins/status/575317440487374848

Lets see how many days Ms Perkins survives!

I know that Andy Warhol said that in the future everyone would be famous for 5 minutes: just didn’t realise that he was referring to UKIP candidates.

Funnily enough I think UKIP’s sometime amateurishness actually adds to its appeal for some people. It contrasts with the slickness of the established parties from their point of view.

I agree but there is amateurish and down right shambles and this is certainly the latter

Dark deeds alleged in the tousle between UKIPpers and ex-UKIPpers….

http://www.andoverandvillages.co.uk/home/andover-local-news-headlines/1948-ukip-accused-of-revenge-attack#!andover_broadway_garage_break_in_broadway_006

Convoluted justification from prominent local UKIPper as to why the party cycled through three PPCs in a week:

http://www.andoveradvertiser.co.uk/yoursay/12868351.We_ll_fight_vigorously_for_Sue/?ref=auk

Tories used the opportunity of their PPC’s Freepost to include fotos of the borough council candidates… Tsk, tsk… did the same in Romsey & Southampton North…

May come back to bite them…

Second Tory mailing arrived yesterday.. very expensive looking with elaborate origami folding.. much better than the Freepost.. surprised they are throwing so much money at this “safe” seat… UKIP must have them perturbed..

First Green flyer just delivered.. better late than never…

Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj

20,000?? Just back from a gruelling 6 hours of telling in blazing sun..Tories are best organised on that front…

One of their number said they expected a big reduction in vote due to the Sir George personal vote not being there…

Con hold 17,000 majority.

UKIP will be 15% or more..

Is this the safest Tory seat in the UK?

I think Highclere Castle (of Downton fame of course) was in Basingstoke from 1885 to 1983

007. I suspect that North East Hampshire, where the Conservative is 55.4% ahead of the second candidate,the LibDem, is notionally safer for the Tories. But it is pretty academic.

Happy to see NW Hants lose its most Tory bits (Stockbridge, the Clatfords, the Wallops all the military housing etc) and remain focussed on Andover, Whitchurch, Tadley and Overton, which have all been LibDem to one extent or another in the past. This might prompt the lumbering Kit Malthouse to do a chicken run to the south and slug it out with Caroline Nokes (a sight to see).

He actually ends up “living” (as he has a pseudo-residence in the twee village of Abbotts Ann) outside the constituency and in Nokes’ patch.

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/6876/2018-review?page=18#ixzz4K7WlGSaf

Will Kit Malthouse secure a place in history with the compromise plan he has brokered between JRM and Nicky Morgan, which has been endorsed by the DUP. Or will the plan collapse. Personally I still predict no deal is happening but with the blame for it being firmly placed by the government with the EU insisting on a backstop

The Anna Soubry faction still seems to be holding out against Malthouse’s plan, so even with the ERG onside there may not be the numbers in the commons for it.

The EU don’t support it either

Matt hits the nail on the head. This silly little ‘agreement’ (which, as ever, is more about management of the Tory party internally rather benefiting the country as a whole) will be completely ignored by the EU, so why should we give a flying f***. The Cooper Amendment is more interesting.

https://www.facebook.com/kit.malthouse/videos/2261698580735799/

Kit Malthouse is correct to oppose a long extension. Liberal snowflakes will never meet us with a compromise. They want to wreck the whole thing. No deal.

However a no deal is probably even less likely than a second referendum.

*splutters*

For how many months were you telling us several times a day that No Deal was a certainty?

I have changed my min – prehaps too optimistically but I am convinced the deal with pass (even the dup seem to putting out the feelers to climb down the leader). A no deal might happen in 2020/2021 when the next tory pm rips up the agreement and tried to breach International law.