North East Hampshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35573 (65.9%)
Labour: 5290 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 5657 (10.5%)
Green: 2364 (4.4%)
UKIP: 4732 (8.8%)
Loony: 384 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 29916 (55.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Most of the Hart council area and part of the Basingstoke and Deane council area.

Main population centres: Hook, Fleet, Yateley, Hartley Wintney.

Profile: An unusually shaped seat that curves around the north, east and south of Basingstoke, almost surrounding the town. It consists of the rural hinterland of Basingstoke, the affluent and fast growing towns of Hook and Fleet and, since 2010, the town of Yateley. This is an affluent and desirable residential area, home to London commuters and significant communications and defence industries - companies based in the area include Virgin Media and Serco..

Politics: A very safe Conservative seat, created in 1997 and even in that Labour landslide election returning James Arbuthnot with over fifty percent of the vote. The Monster Raving Loony Party were based at the Dog and Partridge pub in Yateley until 2011.


Current MP
RANIL JAYAWARDENA (Conservative) Educated at LSE. Former banker. Basingstoke and Deane councillor since 2008. First elected as MP for Hampshire North East in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 32075 (61%)
Lab: 5173 (10%)
LDem: 13478 (25%)
UKIP: 2213 (4%)
MAJ: 18597 (35%)
2005*
Con: 25407 (54%)
Lab: 7630 (16%)
LDem: 12858 (27%)
UKIP: 1392 (3%)
MAJ: 12549 (27%)
2001
Con: 23379 (53%)
Lab: 8744 (20%)
LDem: 10122 (23%)
UKIP: 1702 (4%)
MAJ: 13257 (30%)
1997
Con: 26017 (51%)
Lab: 8203 (16%)
LDem: 11619 (23%)
Oth: 2852 (6%)
MAJ: 14398 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
RANIL JAYAWARDENA (Conservative) Educated at LSE. Works for Lloyds bank. Basingstoke and Deane councillor since 2008.
AMRAN HUSSAIN (Labour)
GRAHAM COCKARILL (Liberal Democrat)
ROBERT BLAY (UKIP)
ANDREW JOHNSTON (Green)
MAD MAX BOBETSKY (Loony)
Links
Comments - 90 Responses on “Hampshire North East”
  1. The Conservatives held all the council seats in Fleet in 1995, three wards. Unsurprising in normal circumstances though.

  2. LibDem district and county cllr Adam Carew defected to the Conservatives here in the Summer.

  3. The profile here says Yateley wasn’t in this constituency till 2010. Where was it before?

  4. I don’t think I’d noticed it was but it makes sense.
    I think Yately has been quite a Japanse knotweed Lib Dem situation, so it’s slightly surprising it has been contained but perhaps it is different in General Elections.

    There were oddly some Labour councillors in Yately I think in 1976 (old site)
    but it might have been uncontested wards to give the opposition a chance

  5. Yateley was in the Aldershot constituency before 2010.

  6. Thanks BM.

  7. Thanks – I hadn’t thought of that

  8. Going to have a wild guess, again based on the conditions I stated in the Hazel Grove thread.
    CON 52
    LD 18
    LAB 16
    UKIP 10
    GRN 4

  9. I suppose it goes unnoticed in safe seats, but Arbuthnot’s vote here isn’t that impressive for the area. Is the local Assoc poor? He holds popular views, but seems to rub people up the wrong way, like Grayling.

  10. Isn’t that impressive?

    Its one of the very select group of seats over 60%

  11. I think >60% is very good going for any constituency.

  12. I’d say Arthbuthnot’s vote is very impressive – although it has perhaps worth mentioning that Michael Mates – a completely different type of tory from Arbuthnot – had a majority around 30,000 when this area was in his Hampshire East seat in 1992

  13. I don’t remember any Tory having a 30,000 majority in my lifetime, except John Major in Huntingdon in 1992. I remember Labour getting more than that in certain seats, such as Knowsley S, Rother Valley, Hemsworth & Rhondda.

  14. Actually, on second thoughts I do recall the Tories winning the old S Fylde constituency by about 32,000 in the 70s.

  15. Michael Mates had a majority of 29,165 in 1992 – which is why I said around 30,000

  16. i suppose the seat was oversized at that time

  17. It was oversized – Mates got a staggering 47,541 votes – which equated to a share of around 64%

    Interestingly the bulk of the pre-97 East Hampshire seat – went into this seat – North East Hampshire – whilst thre new East Hampshire seat took a good chunk of the pre-97 Havant seat to make uip for losing voters to the new seat

  18. This area has the highest quality of life in the UK according to a recent survey.

  19. It is very lacking in deprivation, but it’s a little dull.

  20. I was quite surprised this area was so affluent

    I had always imagined places like Hook and Fleet to be complete and utter sh*tholes – but obviously that’s not the case

  21. I’d have thought Yately must be a place where people think Lib Dems are ok for local,
    but it’s Con nationally.
    I may be wrong though if it’s only a small part of the area.
    I think the LDs have continued to hold on there since 2010.

  22. Andy JS – those surveys always interest me. I thought Alnwick, Northumberland was the best place to live in the UK? Although they probably give different weighting to different criteria ie rural areas are peaceful with low crime and congestion, but aren’t near to hospitals.

  23. Talk about goldfish chasing their own tails.. the whole discussion today has been the same five constituencies…

    A sure sign of total boredom

  24. Conservatives — open primary, Sunday 17th November 2013:

    https://northeasthantsconservatives-admin.conservativewebsites.org.uk/let-contest-commence

  25. All I can say is whoever gets this seat will have it for life if they should so choose.

  26. Truth be told Alnwick is bloody boring.

  27. Anyone who resides in this constituency can take part in tomorrow’s open primary. The details of the time and place can be found at the link above.

  28. Shortlisted candidates for open primary:

    Victoria Atkins (Gloucestershire PCC candidate, shortlisted in Tonbridge)
    Ranil Jayawardena (Basingstoke Cllr)
    Spencer Pitfield (from Sheffield)
    Helen Whateley (Kingston and Surbiton 2010 candidate)

  29. I thought you could just turn up at the meeting if you lived here but in fact you had to register by 13th November. I don’t know whether that’s normal practice for these open primaries.

  30. Ranil Jayawardena is selected as the new Conservative PPC

  31. Jayawardena will not be the first Tory MP of Sri Lankan heritage – that was Nirj Deva, MP for Brentford & Isleworth between 1992 & 1997.

  32. Two candidates of Sri Lankan heritage selected in as many days, although I suspect they may be from opposite sides of the ethnic divide in that country.

  33. “Two candidates of Sri Lankan heritage selected in as many days, although I suspect they may be from opposite sides of the ethnic divide in that country.”

    Quite appropriate, given the media attention on the troubles over there recently.

  34. John D! Been a while since you visited these parts. Welcome back.

  35. Thank you Barnaby.
    I’ve been a regular lurker, but admittedly a rare contributor.

    In reference to Andy JS’s post further up thread, I believe it is normal practice for people who want to turn up at an open primary to have to register beforehand.

    I think it may be so the local association can check if you are actually a resident of the constituency… and perhaps also the practical reason of wanting to know roughly how many people will turn up on the day.

  36. I’d be interested to know how many people did attend the open primary. It would be nice to know what the voting figures were as well, although maybe they like to keep those secret.

  37. Prediction for 2015-
    Conservative- 58%
    Liberal Democrat- 22%
    Labour- 13%
    UKIP- 7%

  38. “The most desirable place to live in the UK has been named as Hart in Hampshire for the third year in a row.

    The district’s residents were found to be the healthiest and live the longest in the UK, while employment was well above the national average.

    Uttlesford in Essex was in second place followed by South Northamptonshire which jumped 27 places to third.

    The annual Halifax quality of life survey looked at factors including life expectancy, crime rates and weather.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25474188

  39. Ultra safe but it is interesting IMHO that in 2010 the results for here and North West Hampshire were rather similar. The majorities in both seats were near enough identical, as were the number of numerical votes. This seat is safer in percentage terms though.

    Even the vote share rises and falls for the Tories and Lib Dems were similar. I find this all intriguing given that in 1997 the Tories were much further ahead here than in North West Hampshire, by a full 7%. The Tories have recovered quicker there than here, and have increased 13.3% since 1997. Here, they’ve gone up 10.3% in the same timeframe, but this still remains the safer seat.

  40. NW Hampshire contains a large town in the shape of Andover and therefore the Tories would have done worse there in 1997. Small town and village voters would have stuck with the Tories more strongly in 1997 I think.

  41. “Two candidates of Sri Lankan heritage selected in as many days, although I suspect they may be from opposite sides of the ethnic divide in that country.”

    You’re right (and I know you wrote this some months ago, but worth clarifying 😉 ).

    Jayawardena is a very typical Sinhalese name. They form the majority ethnic group in Sri Lanka and are primarily Buddhist, although some are Christian. I’m guessing you were referring to Uma Kumaran in that post as well. She is of Tamil descent. They make up the biggest minority group in Sri Lanka and are largely Hindu, with smaller numbers of Christians or Muslims.

  42. “NW Hampshire contains a large town in the shape of Andover and therefore the Tories would have done worse there in 1997. Small town and village voters would have stuck with the Tories more strongly in 1997 I think.”

    Yes North West Hampshire was not as safe as North East Hampshire then, certainly on the notionals, particularly given the Tories managed to clear 50% in the latter in the dire context of 1997, but the rise of 4.9% for George Young as opposed to one of just 2.3% for James Arbuthnot in what was the safer seat is in my mind curious somewhat. The vote share increases and decreases for the three main parites in both seats from 2005 onwards have been very similar, but by that year George Young actually had a bigger numerical majority and more votes than James Arbuthnot did, so although the reverse is once again the case, the two seats are a lot closer in comparison than they were in 1997.

  43. “but the rise of 4.9% for George Young as opposed to one of just 2.3% for James Arbuthnot in what was the safer seat is in my mind curious somewhat”

    Here I was referring to the 2001 results BTW.

  44. As I have just commented on next-door North west Hampshire, the Lib Dems here have had some curious results in this seat.

    They had increases in 2001 and 2005, but below the national average in one case- +0.3% in 2001, which was far lower than the Lib Dems’ national rise of +1.5%. Their increase of +4.2% was slightly above the party’s national performance in 2005, but then just like in NW Hampshire in 2010, they decreased, by 1.6%. But unlike that seat, here they remain ahead of 1997, but only 2.8%.

  45. “The profile here says Yateley wasn’t in this constituency till 2010. Where was it before?”

    It was in Aldershot.

    In fact, all of the Hart DC part of this constituency had been added from Aldershot at the successive revisions of 1974, 1983, 1997 and 2010.

    The two wards from Hart left now in the Aldershot constituency (that is Rushmoor BC) are Frogmore & Darby Green and Blackwater & Hawley.

  46. prediction for 2015-

    con- 55%
    Lib- 19%
    Lab- 15%
    UKIP- 11%

  47. Good prediction. There is clearly a chance the Lib Dems could go below 20% here.

  48. Umm, thanks Dalek, but I had my question answered months ago.

  49. Unfortunately, way off the mark. Labour will no way get within 4 points of the Liberal Democrats here. This is an area where the Lib Dems will be holding up far better than most, and Labour have shown barely an advance in local elections.

    This could well be an area where UKIP leapfrogs Labour. Not because this is an especially good area for UKIP (it isn’t), but just because Labour is so weak here.

    I’ll work out the local election results for 2014, and I may well make a prediction of my own.

  50. There might be an increased Tory majority here if they hold up well enough and the Lib Dems fall back a bit.

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