North East Hampshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35573 (65.9%)
Labour: 5290 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 5657 (10.5%)
Green: 2364 (4.4%)
UKIP: 4732 (8.8%)
Loony: 384 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 29916 (55.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Most of the Hart council area and part of the Basingstoke and Deane council area.

Main population centres: Hook, Fleet, Yateley, Hartley Wintney.

Profile: An unusually shaped seat that curves around the north, east and south of Basingstoke, almost surrounding the town. It consists of the rural hinterland of Basingstoke, the affluent and fast growing towns of Hook and Fleet and, since 2010, the town of Yateley. This is an affluent and desirable residential area, home to London commuters and significant communications and defence industries - companies based in the area include Virgin Media and Serco..

Politics: A very safe Conservative seat, created in 1997 and even in that Labour landslide election returning James Arbuthnot with over fifty percent of the vote. The Monster Raving Loony Party were based at the Dog and Partridge pub in Yateley until 2011.

Current MP
RANIL JAYAWARDENA (Conservative) Educated at LSE. Former banker. Basingstoke and Deane councillor since 2008. First elected as MP for Hampshire North East in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 32075 (61%)
Lab: 5173 (10%)
LDem: 13478 (25%)
UKIP: 2213 (4%)
MAJ: 18597 (35%)
Con: 25407 (54%)
Lab: 7630 (16%)
LDem: 12858 (27%)
UKIP: 1392 (3%)
MAJ: 12549 (27%)
Con: 23379 (53%)
Lab: 8744 (20%)
LDem: 10122 (23%)
UKIP: 1702 (4%)
MAJ: 13257 (30%)
Con: 26017 (51%)
Lab: 8203 (16%)
LDem: 11619 (23%)
Oth: 2852 (6%)
MAJ: 14398 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
RANIL JAYAWARDENA (Conservative) Educated at LSE. Works for Lloyds bank. Basingstoke and Deane councillor since 2008.
GRAHAM COCKARILL (Liberal Democrat)
Comments - 90 Responses on “Hampshire North East”
  1. That is a possibility. My instinct is it’s more likely the majority will stay about the same* but I shall see what insights a tabulation of the local election results might share.

    *UKIP will take votes off the Tories, but in this kind of area it won’t be a great deal. The Lib Dems will lose some votes to Labour but, again in this kind of area, only a small amount – some other will wander off to all sorts of other places. All in all, the drops could just balance each other out.

  2. The Lib Dems haven’t really improved a great deal here since 1997, so I think they might stay a bit stable next time, possibly above 20%, but I’m not too sure.

    It will be interesting to see your prediction Van Fleet after you’ve done your tabulation of the locals here.

  3. Both the MPs for North East and North West Hampshire had previously sat for London seats- James Arbuthnot was originally MP for Wanstead and Woodford (1987-1997) and Sir George Young was MP for Acton and then Ealing Acton (February 1974-1997).

  4. The Green Party of England & Wales have selected Donna Wallace for this seat. – As an officier for Blackwater Valley Green Party which encompasses the Hart area of North East Hampshire I was part of the selection process. We hope to provide a viable alternative to disgruntled Labour, Liberal Democrats traditional village green Conservatives insterested in preserving the local community way of life.

  5. With Hook and Fleet’s sprawl dominating this seat, the village green is a side issue..

    this seat has a whiff of gerrymander around its drawing.. ripe for a radical reassessment in 2019

  6. I don’t see how it can be a gerrymander nor to what end. It is, give or take a bit, the Hart district. It has to donate a couple of wards to Aldershot as Rushmoor isn’t quite big enough and cannot take wards from anywhere else. This leaves it needing compensatory wards from elsewhere which must be either East Hamshire as it was before 2010 or Basingstoke & Deane as it has been since then. Some kind of seat based on the Hart district is inevitable and I don’t see what kind of radical reassesment would be possible let alone desirable

  7. Gerrymanders do not have to be nefarious in nature.. In Australia seats like this would not be allowed… then again there they don’t have wards or county boundaries that count more, seemingly, that constituency construction

  8. @Antiochan

    I agree with Pete. In what way do you think this seat is unnatural or unreasonable? It is as Pete says based on the Hart District.

    There are plenty of Aussie constituencies with strange boundaries. This is because, as you say, they pay less attention to either administrative boundaries or natural communities, than we do.

  9. Lib Dem candidate is Graham Cockarill.

  10. Lib Dems will probably cling on to second place here.

  11. “Lib Dems will probably cling on to second place here.”

    I would certainly predict that too. In the last Hart locals, which roughly corresponds to this constituency, the Liberal Democrats placed second overall in votes. Although, as discussed previously, the results suggest Lib Dem strongholds like Yateley vote more Tory at generals, they can still count on good areas of support.

    By contrast, UKIP’s support is probably more limited to Fleet, whilst Labour has no base anywhere.

  12. welcome back Van Fleet

  13. Thanks Barnaby!

  14. UKIP suspend yet another candidate.

    How many is that suspended now?

  15. Two, Galloglass, in this general election. Jack Sen, UKIP’s West Lancashire parliamentary candidate, was suspended over an anti-Semitic slur he sent to Labour candidate Luciana Berger, who is Jewish.

  16. Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj

  17. Mr Jayawardena has managed the highest Conservative vote share in the country by my reckoning- 65.9%.

  18. His majority is 29,916.

  19. Haven’t checked the over 60%s but with the Ld collapse there are now a lot of Tory majorities back to 80s levels.

  20. There are 14 seats by my calculations in which the Cons managed >60%

    1) NE Hampshire 65.9
    2) Maidenhead 65.8
    3) Windsor 63.4
    4) Beaconsfield 63.2
    5) Chelsea & Fulham 62.9
    6) Esher & Walton 62.9
    7) Meon Valley 61.1
    8) Newbury 61.0
    9) Arundel 60.8
    10) Mole Valley 60.6
    12) Maldon 60.6
    13)Witney 60.2
    14) South Northamptonshire 60.1

    Mostly affluent outer Home Counties. In Kent it appears that UKIP clipped them slightly with the Conservatives falling short in the likes of Tonbridge & Malling and Tunbridge Wells.

    In 2010 the Conservatives managed >60% in just 6 seats. In 2015, the Conservatives dropped below 60% in two of them- Richmond, where their vote in fact fell all the way down to 51% (Mr Sunak’s selection may not have proved too popular though he has time to prove himself) and Chesham and Amersham where it dipped slightly, no doubt HS2-related.

  21. Thanks for that. Interesting when you think that the LDs once held Newbury and were quite serious in Maidenhead where the HS must have a large personal vote by now

  22. I make this seat the safest Conservative seat in the country (majority 55.4%). By my reckoning, 51 Conservative seats now have majorities of 40% or above, which is unprecedented for the party in the post-war era.

  23. I think the next highest number was 31 back in 1955- which was of course before the Liberals made their comeback.

  24. The new Tory MP is younger than I’d thought, just 28 years of age.

  25. It is – as your list showed

    Quite a personal achievement for the candidate given his ethinicity in an area not reknowned for its multiculturalism

  26. Never thought the Lib Dems would come so close to third place. Even their local election strength in Yateley faltered, losing one of its wards and winning the other one by only 1 vote.

  27. Well at least my prediction of them narrowly clinging on to second place here turned out to be correct!

  28. It is entirely appropriate that the least deprived area in the country (Hart District) should have the largest Conservative majority.

  29. The Labour candidate for this seat at the election has apparently been photographed posing for a selfie in front of the spot where tourists were killed in Tunisia.

  30. Labour nearly got second place here.
    One might have expected UKIP to do a bit better here.
    Perhaps this is some slight evidence that UKIP support generally was less from the Tories than expected, or is it a slightly too affluent seat for them.

  31. UKIP not doing brilliantly here had a lot to do with certain comments made by their candidate I think…

  32. I’ve seen footage where the UKIP candidate offered to shake hands on the platform but the Tory candidate declined.

  33. Yes I’ve seen the declaration as well. Could this actually be one of UKIP’s very few results that was much worse than what they ‘should’ have got on paper perhaps?

  34. Given the comments made by the UKIP candidate as reported. I’m not surprised the Tory victor wouldn’t shake his hand, I wouldn’t either. Is this matter being investigated by the police? Under the circumstances of dreadful pr ukip did well to hold their deposit.

  35. Labour have suspended their candidate from the Party, after his selfie stick moment in Tunisia.

  36. Christ what is it with some of the candidates who stood in this seat?!

  37. Clearly the obsession with taking selfies has reached even weirder levels than I’d previously thought. Did this person travel all the way out to Tunisia just to take a selfie of himself at the site of the atrocity?

  38. Hopefully by the time the 2020s arrive it will be another forgotten trend. Then again…

  39. Ranil Jayawardena has resigned as a PPS.

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