2015 Result:
Conservative: 17463 (36.4%)
Labour: 23981 (50%)
Lib Dem: 2224 (4.6%)
Green: 2105 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2105 (4.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6518 (13.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hammersmith and Fulham council area.

Main population centres: Hammersmith, Shepherds Bush.

Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the old BBC Television Centre and Westfield shopping centre. The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative - it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. The northern part is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The seat includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital, Queens Park Rangers Football Club and the Linford Christie Stadium. At the far north of the seat is the Old Oak rail maintenance depot, an area that is planned to home a major interchange between the proposed Crossrail and High Speed Rail 2 developments.

Politics: Hammersmith was recreated for the 2010, having been paired with affluent Fulham for the previous three elections. Hammersmith and Fulham was a tight marginal seat, won by the Conservatives in 2005. The return to a Hammersmith seat, as had existed before 1997, makes the seat more comfortably Labour.

Current MP
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) Born 1960, London. Educated at Latymer Upper School and Exeter University. Barrister. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor 1986-2006, Leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council 1996-2005. Contested Uxbridge by-election 1997. First elected as MP for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd`s Bush in 2005. PPS to Stephen Ladyman 2005-07, PPS to Lord Jones 2007-08, PPS to Lord Malloch-Brown 2007-09.
Past Results
Con: 17261 (36%)
Lab: 20810 (44%)
LDem: 7567 (16%)
GRN: 696 (1%)
Oth: 1118 (2%)
MAJ: 3549 (7%)
Con: 22407 (45%)
Lab: 17378 (35%)
LDem: 7116 (14%)
GRN: 1933 (4%)
Oth: 493 (1%)
MAJ: 5029 (10%)
Con: 17786 (40%)
Lab: 19801 (44%)
LDem: 5294 (12%)
GRN: 1444 (3%)
Oth: 375 (1%)
MAJ: 2015 (5%)
Con: 21420 (40%)
Lab: 25262 (47%)
LDem: 4728 (9%)
Oth: 1593 (3%)
MAJ: 3842 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hammersmith & Fulham

2015 Candidates
CHARLIE DEWHIRST (Conservative) Public affairs professional and former journalist. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor since 2010.
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) See above.
MILLICENT SCOTT (Liberal Democrat)
DAVID AKAN (Green) Planning Manager.
Comments - 294 Responses on “Hammersmith”
  1. The inheritance tax announcement should help the Tories in seats like this in London where pretty much anyone who owns a 2 bed flat and up will benefit.

    This combined with the Mansion Tax could well lead to many champagne socialists in places like Brook Green and Brackenbury Village suddenly becoming “Shy Tories”.

  2. Re Inheritance Tax:

    Paul Johnson of the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies on Radio 4 this lunchtime:

    “Less than 10% [of estates] pay inheritance tax at all at the moment. This particular change will probably reduce the inheritance tax liabilities of between 20,000 and 30,000 estates each year. That’s out of something like half a million people who die each year.”

    And he said the move could inflate house prices further:

    “Anything that does something like this that increases the tax privilege associated with an asset like housing will drive the price up in the long run.”

    Be interesting to find out what % of these 20-30 thousand estates are in marginal seats in Central London.

    Might be an expensive way to buy a handful of seats.

  3. Wasnt this the much vaunted GO policy announcement that stopped Brown calling an election after his bounce? I think it was popular with aspirational voters, but obviously never implemented post crash.

  4. Labour by 6500

  5. decent result for Labour here, all things considered.

    13.6% majority

  6. What do we attribute to the good Labour result here? Isn’t there gentrification going on in parts of the seat? Plus there were fears about the mansion tax. Slaughter (I think) supported it, whereas the Labour council opposed.

    Tory vote stayed static, meaning that they’ve got a grip on their core vote but the mansion tax issue didn’t result in a swing their way.

  7. It’s rather polarised like Tooting and Westminster North but Labour did much better here than in those two.

  8. Dead heat for fourth place with Greens and UKIP on both 2,105 votes. Only Con and Lab held their deposits.

  9. Just noticed for the first time that Nirj Deva was the Conservative candidate here in 1987. He did quite well: the Labour majority increased only slightly from 1,954 to 2,415.

  10. Though of course there was a swing to the tories across London that year so Deva’s result wasn’t all that impressive.
    Here’s a rather bizarre electoral occurrence though, in 1983 there was a candidate from both the Liberals and the SDP running here.

  11. This also happened in Hackney South & Shoreditch and Liverpool Broadgreen (which no longer exists) in 1983. Incidentally, all 3 of these particular Liberal candidates (Simon Knott, who had stood for the Liberals in Barons Court/Hammersmith nine times in a row, Jeffrey Roberts, and Richard Pine) were selected to run in the exact same seats in 1987.

  12. Bit disappointed with this result, although the C share did rise a smidgen.
    It really should be C winnable by now.
    Clearly not Wandsworth.

  13. l do feel that, while some parts of this seat have now become very wealthy (this is particularly true of Ravenscourt Park ward, but also applies to parts of Hammersmith Broadway, Avonmore/Brook Green and Fulham Reach in particular), there doesn’t seem to be much of a further march upmarket in some of the other wards, including some (e.g. North End & Addison) which have elected Tory councillors in recent years. Some parts of Avonmore & Brook Green, particularly in the SE of the ward which was Avonmore ward before 2002, strike me as if anything moving demographically back towards Labour as some of the grander houses have been split into very large numbers of pretty low-rent (though still largely private) flats.

  14. Just realised the Lib Dems lost their deposit here at the General Election May 2015. I wasn’t expecting them to do well here but I thought they’d at least keep their deposit in a seat of this nature i.e. urban / mteorpolitan .

  15. *metropolitan

  16. It is not at all surprising that the LibDems lost their deposit here. They did the same in a series of Labour seats across West London. The only one I can find, on a quick and not very systematic search, where they did save their deposit is Ealing Southall where the got less than 6%. Even in Hampstead and Kilburn, where the LIbDems were only 2% short in 2010, they got 5.8%.

    The LibDems did save their deposit in nearby safe Conservative seats – Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster, but even ther the got less than 105 of the vote.

    West-Central London was never hopeful territory for the LibDems even in their good years.After 2015 they hqve no hope in these parts.

  17. Mayoral result (excluding postal):

    Khan 13822 47.9%
    Goldsmith 8857 30.7%

  18. Looking at what might happen with the boundaries I don’t think this seat will exist come 2020. Due to falling electorate in the Royal borough of Kensington and Chelsea it can now be assigned exactly one (ultra safe Tory constituency) constituency. Which means that Fulham must be paired with Hammersmith in what would be a fairly reliable (barring a landslide) Tory seat (wards: Sands End, Palace Riverside, Parsons Green and Walham, Town, Munster, Fulham Broadway, North End , Fulham Reach, Avonmore and Brook Green, Addison, Hammersmith Broadway, Ravenscourt Park). Then the four remaining very safe Labour wards are paired with parts of Brent or Ealing.

  19. Peppermint Tea- yes, the electorate of the entire Kensington & Chelsea borough is now only around 76,000 and although there is a very good argument against Queen’s Park and Hospital being in the same constituency, the Boundary Commission’s aversion to crossing boroughs will no doubt prevail.

    Estimated 2015 result in Fulham & Hammersmith

    Con 50.4
    Lab 36.0
    LD 6.0
    UKIP 4.8

  20. The ward results in the GLAs set up the 2018 council elections to be very close in H&F.

    On the ward results, Conservatives would have gained back Fulham Broadway with Avonmore & Brook Green and Addison likely remaining split which would leave the Council 23-23.

    Given this is the Conservatives only real shot at a gain in London in 2018, this is likely to be a very closely fought election.

  21. @sisterman they probably have a decent shot at Harrow considering the result there at the mayoral/London mayoral contests. Labour have some very vulnerable seats in wards like Rayners Lane, Harrow on the Hill and Kenton West which the Tories will be targeting. If you consider that the postal votes in Harrow skew quite heavily in the Tories favour they probably got very close to Labour in wards like West Harrow. I’m very sceptical the moment that they will gain enough seats (6 required) to gain overall control but I think Labour losing at least 3 seats and thus overall control is fairly likely at present.

  22. Fair to say that Conservatives have an outside shot in Harrow but it is a big ask. Would still expect H&F to be the big pitched fight in London.

    The animosity between the Labour and Conservative groups here is known to be fierce. There is a history of nasty election campaigns as a result.

    Should be fun…

  23. Labour will be trying hard to take Barnet… they only lost extremely narrowly last time and if the government are taking a mid-term battering in the polls by 2018 they may be able to do it, in spite of the strong Tory GE and mayoral results in Hendon and Finchley and their problems with Jewish voters.

    And I expect the LDs may be back on form in Kingston and Richmond, making those contests the Tories have to fight hard.

  24. Barnet Council elections were very nailbitting

  25. @JackSheldon yes Barnet will be interesting to watch in 2018. The Tories only have a 1 seat majority and Labour need 2 to take overall control. However Labour is largely maxed out in Barnet (having done very well last time) so there are not many places they can really make gains. The most obvious target for Labour is the final tory seat in Brunswick Park seen as that end of the borough is trending their way. Beyond that there is only really Hale where they could hope to gain seats but that ward forms part of Edgware where I presume there is a large Jewish vote which is not all to friendly to Labour of late. I suppose there is Childs Hill as well but if the Tories do lose seats there it is far more likely to be to the Lib Dems than Labour. Labour should be also very worried about their seats in West Hendon which is rapidly trending away from them, that ward could potentially save the Barnet Tory group’s bacon. They also need to watch their seats in Brunswick Park and East Barnet which are only held by marginal majorities (though the trends there are favourable to Labour).

    If the Tories do lose control in Barnet I think it more likely to be to no overall control than a Labour majority. I presume in this event a Lab-LibDem coalition would be formed.

  26. @Pepperminttea

    The LDs could conceivably return to having a full slate in Childs Hill. In Barnet politics they and Labour are natural allies against the Tories so if it went to NOC a Labour administration would be fairly inevitable (especially as the Tories have been in since 2002).

    If there were an election tomorrow I think Labour would lose seats to the Tories. Certainly their seat in Hale, probably their East Barnet seats (shock gains in 2014) and possibly West Hendon which as you say is trending Tory, and Brunswick Park (Goldsmith carried it, though by less than 1000). Underhill is always extremely tight, though the by-election last week and mayoral result suggested Labour would be favourites to hold on.

    However, 2018 is two years away, at the point of a parliament where governments are usually at their least popular. Despite Corbyn it isn’t inconceivable they could have a clear poll lead at that stage.

  27. l don’t see a serious Lib Dem revival as very likely in Richmond-upon-Thames in terms of threatening Tory control. They’re too weak on the Richmond side of the river now, and getting weaker. Some gains on the Twickenham side of the river are possible but really some wards which have (sometimes quite often) voted LD in the past are starting to look out of their reach now. Kingston-upon-Thames could be a different matter.

  28. LD gains are not going to be on much of a scale in Sutton where they already have such a large majority. One one ward, Belmont, is without at least one LD councillor.

  29. I think Sutton will remain fairly static, with few seats changing hands. Kingston could be a possible regain for the LD’s, Richmond – no chance.

    Labour target boroughs will be Barnet, Hillingdon and Wandsworth – I actually doubt will gain any of them. Wandsworth could be a closer call than everyone thinks, everyone forgets that despite the affluence there is a lot of generation rent that could be dissatisfied with the Tories in Central London.

  30. I wonder how many seats there are where only two parties held their deposits.

    I guess not many, especially outside London (thinking of UKIP weakness in London, meaning they lost a lot more deposits here than elsewhere in E & W, pro rata; whereas LDs lost deposits all over the place).

  31. Interesting, thanks. As expected, many of them in London.

    I thought there would be some in Scotland, but it seems not. Quite a few that were fairly or even very close though, such as Banff and Buchan and that area.

  32. Given the result of the Richmond by-election, you wonder whether the LDs might see something of a revival this side of the river in the local elections in 2018.

    They came very close to winning Askew in 2006 and used to have councillors in what is now Hammersmith Broadway.

    Ravenscourt Park sticks out as a ward that was likely voted heavily Remain but is represented by Harry Phibbs as the local councillor, who is well known to be a very hardline Brexiteer.

  33. Brexit isn’t likely to be much of an issue in local elections but (depending on how negotiations proceed of course) the Tories could have reason to get very nervous about their vote in a general election.

  34. I’m going to stick my neck out and say I think its more likely Lab will increase their councillor numbers than it is them losing control back to the Tories.

  35. It would be a poor result but I think Brexit has made it all the more likely. H and F was 70% Remain and while a lot of the Tory vote particularly in Fulham will probably vote Tory regardless I think their is a real risk of the Cons peeling away some Remain votes to the Lib Dems in the likes of Avonmore, Addison or Ravenscourt and given how close those results were it would allow Lab to pick up extra councillors by default. Worse case scenario I can even see Lab regaining councillors in rapidly gentrifying Sands End.

  36. Yes but obviously that was pre Brexit but also the mayoralty uses a run off system so split voting isn’t an issue. Under a FPTP system like in the locals though it spells trouble. We could even potentially see a Cheshire West style result were the Tories win the most votes in the borough but Lab the most councillors cos the Tories pile up votes in Fulham while Lab narrowly clean slate the marginal wards, its certainly within the realms of possibility.

  37. It’s going to be close in H&F. Fulham is and has been trending Tory for a long time. Shepherds Bush is rock solid Labour. Hammersmith is funny in that parts of it are trending Tory (roughly the W6 postcode) and other pars are getting better for Labour (roughly the W14 postcode). Ravnscourt Park and Fulham Reach are both W6 wards. North End is an entirely W14 ward. Addison and Avonmore & Brook Green are part W6 and part W14. That gives you a clue about where the demographics are moving.

    In Hammersmith those will be the marginal wards. Labour can gain two in Avonomore, one in Addison and three in Ravenscourt. Tories can gain 3 in Fulham Reach (very unlikely due to the hospital), 3 in North End, 1 in Avonmore and 2 in Addison.

    In Fulham, it is all about Fulham Broadway where Labour are defending. Sands End could easily go Labour as well. They only narrowly missed out in 2014 but the GLA results suggest the Tories should be just about ok. But there are some huge council estates in that ward that, if worked hard by Labour, could deliver the ward for Labour.

  38. Arguably so. The GLA results suggest the Tories will gain Fulham Broadway and pick up the third seat in Avonmore & Brook Green, which would leave the council 24-22 to the Tories. But that depends on them holding on to their 1 seat in Addison which would be touch and go based on the GLA results.

  39. Conservatives have reselected Charlie Dewhirst as their candidate for GE 2017.

  40. Any indications of council election candidates yet?

  41. Shaun Bailey selected as Tory mayoral candidate.

    Sadiq Khan will be cracking open the champers.

    Prediction – Bailey will make Goldsmith’s campaign look effective and Khan will be re-elected with a much increased majority despite serious vulnerabilities on crime and transport. Stories of Bailey’s ineptitude as PPC in Hammersmith abound, and on top of that him being a Leave voter is going to be a massive handicap. For the first time ever we might see a candidate win the election on first preferences alone.

  42. ‘Stories of Bailey’s ineptitude as PPC in Hammersmith abound, and on top of that him being a Leave voter is going to be a massive handicap.’

    Bailey is a horrendous pick

    Quite fitting that he’s Tory candidate in a city where they have been going backwards for decades

  43. Unbelievably, all 3 shortlisted candidates were Leavers. That doomed all of them to heavy defeat even before the race begins.

    Boff, who I have met a few times, was the best of a bad bunch. Good on policy but no charisma or profile, and a very sharp voice which grates on TV. But he would have done better than Bailey or the other one.

  44. Shaun Bailey?! Ok, it’s official…the Tories have given up in London. It’s like they don’t want to even look like they are trying. Not wildly fussed about Khan either way as Mayor. I think it’s nice to have a lower key personality in charge after the Livingstone and Johnson era.

  45. “I think it’s nice to have a lower key personality in charge after the Livingstone and Johnson era.”

    I think that is a very astute comment.

    Livingstone aroused hatred in the Bromleys and Haverings, causing a massive turnout in those kind of boroughs which swung it for Boris twice. There is no hatred of Khan and the turnout of Tory outer suburbia will therefore be lower. Meanwhile the more liberal Tory bits of London (Putney, Wimbledon, Richmond etc) will almost certainly vote for Khan.

    Not long ago someone presciently wrote that since Cameron left the Tories have become a totally provincial party – the party of church jumble sales and caravan holidays. Epitomised of course by the image projected by the prime minister. We can argue about the electoral pros and cons of this nationwide, but in London it is going to destroy the Tories’ chances for a generation.

  46. To people actually know about him (mainly Hemmelig): where does his reputation for uselessness come from?

  47. Primarily his 2010 campaign in Hammersmith – he’d been cast from the A list as a dream candidate, a black, working class Tory, seemingly articulate and persuasive. Hammersmith was a pretty winnable seat for the Tories that year, given the fast pace of gentrification locally.

    He cocked up his campaign with a litany of mistakes and poor public appearances which enabled the fairly unpopular Andrew Slaughter to run rings round him and hold the seat easily.

  48. ‘Not long ago someone presciently wrote that since Cameron left the Tories have become a totally provincial party’

    I think they were well on the way to becoming that with Cameron at the helm, but I think it;s certainly been accelerated by the departures of him, Osborne and the demotion/disappearance of the other 21st century, urban Tories

    ‘where does his reputation for uselessness come from’

    Hemmelig is right.

    Bailey showed himself unfit for office in his 2010 campaign in Hammersmith – making highly personalised attacks on his fairly uninspiring opponent, coming across badly in public appearances and all over the place on any policy outside his area of expertise – youth matters

    Interestingly many Tories at the time privately conceded that they f***** it up big time by picking him for a seat they should have won – so as Tristan and Hemmelig allude, his canditure does look as if the Tories have totally given up on London altogether

  49. “his candidature does look as if the Tories have totally given up on London altogether”

    Or to put it differently, stronger candidates have shied away from standing, knowing they are guaranteed a big defeat.

    It’s un-nerving to see London turning into a one-party state and I think it will be very bad for the city and its governance in the longer term. Though staunchly Labour in all general elections back to 1997, Boris’ victory showed that the Tories could still win control at local government level. I fear that with Brexit and continued demographic change that is no longer possible.

  50. I don’t like quoting pulp fiction like Guido but he’s reported today that the Tories only have 1,500 members in London. Quite something when I think the average London constitency has that many Labour members.

    I don’t think the collapse of the Tories in London will necessarily mean Labour dominate London. There is clearly a significant minority of people in London that will always vote Tory. I think they’ve probably hit bottom and there isn’t further foe them to go. Places like Chelsea will always vote Tory.

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