Hammersmith

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17463 (36.4%)
Labour: 23981 (50%)
Lib Dem: 2224 (4.6%)
Green: 2105 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2105 (4.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6518 (13.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hammersmith and Fulham council area.

Main population centres: Hammersmith, Shepherds Bush.

Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the old BBC Television Centre and Westfield shopping centre. The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative - it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. The northern part is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The seat includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital, Queens Park Rangers Football Club and the Linford Christie Stadium. At the far north of the seat is the Old Oak rail maintenance depot, an area that is planned to home a major interchange between the proposed Crossrail and High Speed Rail 2 developments.

Politics: Hammersmith was recreated for the 2010, having been paired with affluent Fulham for the previous three elections. Hammersmith and Fulham was a tight marginal seat, won by the Conservatives in 2005. The return to a Hammersmith seat, as had existed before 1997, makes the seat more comfortably Labour.


Current MP
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) Born 1960, London. Educated at Latymer Upper School and Exeter University. Barrister. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor 1986-2006, Leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council 1996-2005. Contested Uxbridge by-election 1997. First elected as MP for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd`s Bush in 2005. PPS to Stephen Ladyman 2005-07, PPS to Lord Jones 2007-08, PPS to Lord Malloch-Brown 2007-09.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17261 (36%)
Lab: 20810 (44%)
LDem: 7567 (16%)
GRN: 696 (1%)
Oth: 1118 (2%)
MAJ: 3549 (7%)
2005*
Con: 22407 (45%)
Lab: 17378 (35%)
LDem: 7116 (14%)
GRN: 1933 (4%)
Oth: 493 (1%)
MAJ: 5029 (10%)
2001
Con: 17786 (40%)
Lab: 19801 (44%)
LDem: 5294 (12%)
GRN: 1444 (3%)
Oth: 375 (1%)
MAJ: 2015 (5%)
1997
Con: 21420 (40%)
Lab: 25262 (47%)
LDem: 4728 (9%)
Oth: 1593 (3%)
MAJ: 3842 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hammersmith & Fulham

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHARLIE DEWHIRST (Conservative) Public affairs professional and former journalist. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor since 2010.
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) See above.
MILLICENT SCOTT (Liberal Democrat)
RICHARD WOOD (UKIP)
DAVID AKAN (Green) Planning Manager.
STEPHEN BRENNAN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 294 Responses on “Hammersmith”
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  1. Went to a Labour Party fundraiser in this constituency tonight with a small team from my constituency – a quiz & a bit of live music. My team was 3rd but I fear that Andy Slaughter’s were last of all. The band had none other than Ken Follett on bass – apparently he is a member of a covers band which frequently performs at fundraising events for the party. His wife Barbara was bopping around happily with the other “WaGs” as they termed themselves, and as I left Ken was doing the lead vocals on Jumping Jack Flash, not too badly either I thought.

  2. I wouldn’t have thought Labour are anticipating having any problems holding this seat in 2015. Maybe most of their local campaigners will be helping out in Ealing Central and Brentford instead.

  3. Barnaby (and others): how is this seat trending? How likely are the Conservatives to benefit from the sort of gentrification seen in relatively nearby areas like Chiswick? Is it already happening?

  4. It is trending Tory, but in some wards in the south of the constituency gentrification was already pretty much complete by 2010, except in the council estates. There is a little gentrification in parts of Shepherds Bush too, and in Addison ward, with probably only College Park & Old Oak ward completely unaffected. However, even though some parts of what used to be Wormholt (Shepherds Bush north-west of the green, roughly, and closest to the border with Acton) have gone rather more upmarket than they were, that didn’t prevent a very big Labour hold in a recent by-election in Wormholt & White City ward. The biggest threat to Labour (and, we really mustn’t forget, to the tenants who live there) is the proposed destruction of the Gibbs Green estate, which is going to make future wins in North End ward difficult to come by, possibly even in good years – but that alone won’t be enough to turn Hammersmith into a Tory seat. There is at present only one copper-bottomed safe Tory ward (Avonmore & Brook Green); Labour still has a good presence in Addison & Ravenscourt Park, even though the wards are now quite hard to win, and still looks safe in 4 wards (Askew, though it may be slowly moving further upmarket, Shepherds Bush Green, College Park/Old Oak & Wormholt/White City). The gentrification of some parts of the wards in the seat is compensated for to some extent by the increasing non-white vote, mainly Muslim I’d say. It’s a seat which the Tories can still aspire to win in a landslide year, but I don’t see Andy Slaughter being in any difficulties in 2015. More than you can say about his performance in the quiz. 🙂

  5. Thanks for that, Barnaby. I noticed that even in the relatively poor year of 2010, Labour still managed >60% in Wormholt and White City so clearly Labour still has a lot of strength, as you say.

  6. Thanks Barnaby, interesting summary.

  7. Good analysis, Barnaby. I notice that you did not mention Hammersmith Broadway. This was won by Boris last year but was still Labour on the GLA unlike North End ward. I wonder if the Tories could manage at least a partial gain in the ward as it does seem to have become a lot more upmarket in recent years particularly by the river. Despite this, I agree that Labour are unlikely to be at risk of losing this constituency in 2015. I actually think that Westminster North and Tooting are more vulnerable than this seat.

  8. Yes I omitted Hammersmith Broadway because it’s the only Labour-held ward which still looks marginal. I think it’s very unlikely to be lost in present circumstances & doubt if it’s gone any more upmarket than it already was a few years ago – there are still in my opinion enough council estates & less wealthy non-council enclaves for Labour to hold it. The 2014 elections are likely to be very interesting in terms of how the very controversial Tory council is viewed by those of less firmly Tory convictions; I think there will be some Labour gains, but it would be astonishing if the Tories came close to defeat even if they are doing very badly nationally, given the social engineering which is taking place in North End. If the Tories do win there outright, which is more than possible, Labour would need to hold everything else & win outright in Ravenscourt Park, Fulham Reach & Addison, which is not totally impossible but an extremely tough call. Sands End & Fulham Broadway now look too far gone to be won again, so such a result would result in the council tied 23-23, and the Tories would retain effective control. If Labour does manage to win North End outright, and that is a very big if, it could be quite interesting. But a Tory hold still looks near-certain.

  9. A result in which the Tories win North End outright and hold everything else is also possible, though I suspect probably unlikely. That would of course increase their majority on the council.

  10. Good descriptions from Barnaby here, thanks.

    The Tories do seem to rather hit a ceiling here because of the solidly Labour controlled areas, even in a bad year for them in 2010,
    but over time, they may catch up..

  11. That was a really good summary Barnaby.

    I think this seat is still moving to the Tories long term, in a similar fashion to Tooting, but I think Labour are just too well entrenched in the poorer bits of the seat for the Tories to win. The Tories need to appeal to some of those on the estates as well as those in the large houses if we are to win this seat in the future.

  12. I think that has been done in poorer areas of Fulham, but not in Northern Hammersmith, although Boris could do a bit.

  13. I have a feeling – though I might be wrong – that council tenants in the south of the borough, in Sands End & Fulham Broadway particularly, are more likely to be white British than those in Shepherds Bush & Hammersmith. There is a long-established & still flourishing Caribbean community in Shepherds Bush, both owning & renting their homes, but much less so in Fulham.

  14. I know Barnaby was referring just to council tenants but I’ll re-post the ward-by-ward census results that were on the old site:

    Census results, white British – 2001 / 2011:

    Addison: 56.2% / 45.4%
    Askew: 54.6% / 41.2%
    Avonmore and Brook Green: 52.2% / 37.9%
    College Park and Old Oak: 49.5% / 31.6%
    Fulham Reach: 59.5% / 45.2%
    Hammersmith Broadway: 56.6% / 44.5%
    North End: 56.6% / 40.6%
    Ravenscourt Park: 62.5% / 53.9%
    Shepherd’s Bush Green: 50.3% / 36.5%
    Wormholt and White City: 47.1% / 30.9%

    Hammersmith: 54.6% / 40.7%

    White overall, Hammersmith:
    2001: 74.3%
    2011: 63.3%

  15. Could Pete let us have the notional results from 1979 onwards for the 1970 Fulham, Barons Court and Hammersmith North constituencies.

  16. 1979

    Hammersmith North
    Lab 12393 50.9%
    Con 8858 36.4%
    Lib 2628 10.8%
    oth 471 1.9%

    Barons Court
    Lab 11375 44.0%
    Con 11347 43.9%
    Lib 2773 10.7%
    oth 358 1.4%

    Fulham
    Con 13779 47.6%
    Lab 12224 42.2%
    Lib 2628 9.1%
    oth 325 1.1%

    1983
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 10826 44.2%
    Con 8216 33.5%
    SDP 3666 15.0%
    Ind Lib 1260 5.1%
    Oth 543 2.2%

    Barons Court
    Con 10694 42.1%
    Lab 9258 36.4%
    All 4362 17.2%
    Ind Lib 915 3.6%
    Oth 186 0.7%

    Fulham
    Con 10984 49.0%
    Lab 6977 31.2%
    Lib 4091 18.3%
    Oth 346 1.5%

    1987
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 12520 47.8%
    Con 9625 36.8%
    All 3522 13.5%
    Oth 503 1.9%

    Barons Court
    Con 12118 45.3%
    Lab 10698 40.0%
    All 3565 13.3%
    Oth 369 1.4%

    1992
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 13519 53.6%
    Con 8865 35.1%
    LD 2352 9.3%
    Oth 502 2.0%

    Barons Court
    Con 12024 46.5%
    Lab 11029 42.7%
    LD 2400 9.3%
    Oth 400 1.5%

    Fulham
    Con 13123 57.0%
    Lab 7643 33.2%
    LD 1970 8.5%
    Oth 307 1.3%

  17. 1997
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 15848 63.2%
    Con 5586 22.3%
    LD 2391 9.5%
    Ref 346 1.4%
    Oth 893 3.6%

    Barons Court
    Lab 12693 50.9%
    Con 8868 35.6%
    LD 2141 8.6%
    Ref 458 1.8%
    Oth 758 3.0%

    Fulham
    Con 10110 45.3%
    Lab 9161 41.1%
    LD 1969 8.8%
    Ref 441 2.0%
    Oth 630 2.8%

    2001
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 11816 60.3%
    Con 4191 21.4%
    LD 2738 14.0%
    Oth 860 4.4%

    Barons Court
    Lab 10363 49.9%
    Con 7127 34.3%
    LD 2408 11.6%
    Oth 882 4.2%

    Fulham
    Con 8776 47.9%
    Lab 6760 36.9%
    LD 2099 11.4%
    Oth 704 3.8%

    2005
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 10061 48.5%
    Con 5158 24.9%
    LD 4424 21.3%
    Oth 1088 5.2%

    Barons Court
    Lab 9168 40.2%
    Con 8882 39.0%
    LD 3578 15.7%
    Oth 1167 5.1%

    Fulham
    Con 11197 54.3%
    Lab 5929 28.8%
    LD 2521 12.2%
    Oth 960 4.7%

    2010
    Hammersmith North
    Lab 12357 48.0%
    Con 8099 31.4%
    LD 4294 16.7 %
    Oth 1005 4.9%

    Barons Court
    Con 11259 43.3%
    Lab 9690 37.2%
    LD 4028 15.5%
    Oth 1041 4.0%

    Fulham
    Con 13190 59.2%
    Lab 4265 19.1%
    LD 3735 16.8%
    Oth 1092 4.9%

  18. It is interesting how little Barons Court has changed- the 2010 result is pretty similar to 1983 and 1987 and 1992 results. Indeed it doesn’t appear to be high swing area full stop. It looks like things have got moderately better for the Tories since 1979 but no more than that. What area does it cover? I’m guessing it’s Ravenscourt, Broadway, North End, and Fulham Reach? I know the wards won’t correspond properly to their successors.

    Fulham, on the other hand, is a completely different story- Tories 10% up on their 1983 level (!) Labour 12% down.

  19. What area does it cover? I’m guessing it’s Ravenscourt, Broadway, North End, and Fulham Reach?

    Yes its pretty much those areas, plus the Avonmore part of the Avonmore & Brook Green ward and most of Fulham Broadway. I guess it is a bit like Westminster North in some respects, though not as extreme. Basically some very wealthy areas/residents and some quite poor ones, so relatively few swing voters. The Tories should have done better in 2010, but almost all the seat is within the Hammersmith boundaries now where Shaun Bailey could be said to have underperformed a bit

  20. Pete- absolutely. When you think about it, the Barons Court area will have been the best part of Hammersmith for Shaun Bailey (given Labour’s strength in places like Wormholt). So if he could only just outpoll Andy Slaughter there, it is no wonder he lost the seat as a whole.

  21. Good news for Andy Slaughter! If Shaun Bailey couldn’t break through with his background Toby Young certainly won’t.

  22. ”Toby Young is seeking the Conservative candidature”

    I read this in the Evening Standard today!!

    Lord help us!!

    We really don’t need the male equivalent of Claire Perry as an MP!!

    I really hope Slaughter slaughters him. Can’t stand the guy!!

  23. Toby Young is almost as annoying as Dan Hodges.

  24. He would be a more coherent candidate than Shaun Bailey – Bailey performed very poorly at meetings during the campaign, and was patently unable to answer some questions – but he would be a major motivating factor for Labour Party workers. Some of us might want to work extra-hard to make sure he doesn’t win, if it comes to that. Mind you, if Labour are competitive with the Conservatives nationally – let’s say no more than 3% behind at the moment – this would be a Labour hold anyway, and perhaps I might be persuaded to work in a Tory marginal, such as Brentford & Isleworth, instead.

  25. Toby Young’s father was of course a pivotal figure in the Labour Party for many decades, including helping to draft the 1945 manifesto:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Young,_Baron_Young_of_Dartington

  26. yes he did join the SDP, but rejoined the Labour Party & retook its whip in the House of Lords

  27. Hustings for Brentford & Isleworth Labour selection coming up soon field will be very crowded shows its a v winnable seat.

  28. Do you know when the final selection will be?

  29. Final selection will be in early October. I would think that Ruth Cadbury a long standing Brentford councillor & Murad Qureshi London Assembly member would be the favourites from a crowded field.

  30. This is another one of the relatively few seats which are very winnable for Labour yet highly desirable to live in and close to Westminster….joining the ranks of Hampstead & Kilburn, Holborn & St Pancras, Islington South and Dulwich & West Norwood.

    It’s no surprise that there is a crowded field.

  31. The crowded field is of course in Brentford & Isleworth not here.

  32. Yes that is the seat I was talking about. Hammersmith and Westminster North fit into my category too.

  33. An article with map about changing social status of different parts of London:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2013/09/mapping-gentrification

    What I noticed most was the huge area of decline in Middlesex metroland.

  34. “What I noticed most was the huge area of decline in Middlesex metroland”

    Good article Richard. As far as I’m concerned we have one party to thank for that decline. Yes, many parts of Outer London were in decline over a long period of time but from 2000 that decline went into freefall. Only one party has really benefitted from such widespread decay not that it bothers them as it was a surefire way to get the Tory voters out of London.

  35. quit the broken record. This isn’t the place to air such prejudices.

  36. So why else have such places declined?

    You seem to struggle to except my point of view Barnaby as if there is no truth in it when we both know there is…

  37. Thank you Richard for that fascinating link.

    The most surprising thing for me was that there are far fewer gentrified areas to the west and south west than I was expecting. I would not have expected there to be more blue than red in Hammersmith and Wandsworth.

  38. “What I noticed most was the huge area of decline in Middlesex metroland.”

    And that is just in the last ten years when already much of the decline in this area had occurred in the preceding 20 years. Most of those areas that have moved upmarket have started from a very low base, thinking of areas like Southwark and Hackney. Whats more surprising is that some of the areas that have moved downmarket also started from a very low base. I didn’t think that Harlesden or Thamesmead for example had any scope for going more downmarket than they were in 2001

  39. LBernard

    I think you have a touchingly naïve belief about how much impact politicians and governments can have on what are basically deep seated economic and global factors.

    The coalition government has not been able to significantly reduce immigration despite being desperate to do so. The decline in “net migration” is a fiddle which is entirely dependent on how many people emigrate. The experience of the past 3 years shows how impossible it is for any government to control these things within the framework of being a global city which is part of the EU.

    The suburbs are going to continue to drift downmarket whether Labour, Tories or even UKIP are in power. It is inevitable. It would be better for you to accept and live with the inevitability rather than damage your health getting so angry about it.

  40. Pete makes some very astute points as always.

    It also seems Westminster North has gone mostly downmarket, especially the areas either side of Edgware Road. That is certainly a surprise, but does help explain Labour’s resilience there.

    The map is a very useful reality check. People often assume that because house prices are going up in an area, it must mean that it is going upmarket, which is not necessarily the case.

  41. I have accepted it, I moved out of London (along with millions of others)…but that doesn’t stop me from being angry about the decline of the places I was born and bred in or the fact that if current trends continue, London will be utterly dominated by the Labour party with the Islington set lauding it over the imported poor masses.

    Westminster North is certainly declining in the parts around Edgware Road. That particular area has fallen out of popularity for a number of reasons (it’s dirty, clogged with traffic, near much nicer areas etc etc) but I’d imagine it is still very pricey to live there bearing in mind how close it is to Oxford Street, Hyde Park etc etc.

  42. Where do you live now….if you don’t mind me asking. I had assumed you were in your 20s but maybe I was wrong.

    I lived in halls of residence just off Edgware Road, nearly 20 years ago now. Edgware Road itself was always dirty and clogged, especially on the north side of the flyover. But the streets just to the east at the south end of the road were very desirable….around Bryanston and Portman Squares…and they seem to be blue on the map. I wonder why they have declined. As you say, the location is fantastic.

  43. Thurrock – hardly miles away from North East London where I did live, not that different but OK for the time being.

    Suburban Essex is basically the old East End recreated, especially South Essex.

  44. The Middlesex metroland decline is mirrored in similar declines in the equivalent middle suburbia around the country.

    One cause of this has been the ageing of all those 1930s semis, many of these areas do look tatty today.

    Now if you’ll excuse me for making a political point I do doubt if the Conservative leadership was personally aware of this before 2010.

    The Cameroons after all are not the people with personal experience of middle suburbia semis as for example Heath, Thatcher and Major were.

    And it was in these declining middle suburban areas that the Conservatives had their worst electoral performances in 2010 compared with 1992.

  45. Yes Richard makes good points.

    I think it was JJB and Barnaby, and possibly HH who have all mentioned about the tattiness of 1930s semis, while Victorian terraces have remained popular – places like Clapham, Balham, Brockley and Forest Hill spring to mind.

    I’m sure that Cameron et al are aware of such decline but I think they lack any kind of strategy with how to deal with it, and as HH has said trying to reverse this decline is difficult while we are still a part of the EU.

    Richards last point is more linked to demography. Those middling areas are now heavily non white with a dusting of various Eastern European groups throughout.

  46. “Now if you’ll excuse me for making a political point I do doubt if the Conservative leadership was personally aware of this before 2010.”

    Partly because it was hidden in the general collapse of the Tory vote after 1992. But they should have noticed those seats where their vote hardly recovered at all from 2001 onwards.

  47. I do actually think this will be a seat which will eventually end up in the Tory column. Its just a case of when.

  48. LBernard

    What were your reasons for moving? It seems from what you write it was down to immigration etc.

    For myself, that was not a factor at all. Purely and simply, we needed to be able to afford a garden for our son, which we couldn’t afford in the parts of Beckenham in the good school catchments.

    I personally really miss Beckenham and we would far prefer to live there rather than Sussex if we had no kids.

    The changing nature of our part of London seems to have bothered me less than you, but perhaps it’s true that Bromley/Bexley haven’t gone downmarket as fast as north east London has. Do you have children yourself? Hope it all works out well for you.

  49. HH

    A number of factors made us move but the most important one is we felt pushed out to be perfectly honest and I couldn’t put up living amongst people who have no connections with the area and so treat it like a dump (even though it was/is already rough), making very little effort to integrate or talk English and simply recreating their homeland. I also tired of lazy local Labour politicians who were rubbish. (Maybe that explains why I take a tough stance on such issues)

    Beckenham is still fairly decent. In fact South East London has held up pretty well. I have to say that if I did stay within London that’s where I would have headed.

    I think London is still a fantastic city but my part of London has changed for the worse, the local council don’t mind as they now have a road full of transients.

    For us the only way really was Essex 😉

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