2015 Result:
Conservative: 17463 (36.4%)
Labour: 23981 (50%)
Lib Dem: 2224 (4.6%)
Green: 2105 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2105 (4.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6518 (13.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hammersmith and Fulham council area.

Main population centres: Hammersmith, Shepherds Bush.

Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the old BBC Television Centre and Westfield shopping centre. The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative - it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. The northern part is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The seat includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital, Queens Park Rangers Football Club and the Linford Christie Stadium. At the far north of the seat is the Old Oak rail maintenance depot, an area that is planned to home a major interchange between the proposed Crossrail and High Speed Rail 2 developments.

Politics: Hammersmith was recreated for the 2010, having been paired with affluent Fulham for the previous three elections. Hammersmith and Fulham was a tight marginal seat, won by the Conservatives in 2005. The return to a Hammersmith seat, as had existed before 1997, makes the seat more comfortably Labour.

Current MP
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) Born 1960, London. Educated at Latymer Upper School and Exeter University. Barrister. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor 1986-2006, Leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council 1996-2005. Contested Uxbridge by-election 1997. First elected as MP for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd`s Bush in 2005. PPS to Stephen Ladyman 2005-07, PPS to Lord Jones 2007-08, PPS to Lord Malloch-Brown 2007-09.
Past Results
Con: 17261 (36%)
Lab: 20810 (44%)
LDem: 7567 (16%)
GRN: 696 (1%)
Oth: 1118 (2%)
MAJ: 3549 (7%)
Con: 22407 (45%)
Lab: 17378 (35%)
LDem: 7116 (14%)
GRN: 1933 (4%)
Oth: 493 (1%)
MAJ: 5029 (10%)
Con: 17786 (40%)
Lab: 19801 (44%)
LDem: 5294 (12%)
GRN: 1444 (3%)
Oth: 375 (1%)
MAJ: 2015 (5%)
Con: 21420 (40%)
Lab: 25262 (47%)
LDem: 4728 (9%)
Oth: 1593 (3%)
MAJ: 3842 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Hammersmith & Fulham

2015 Candidates
CHARLIE DEWHIRST (Conservative) Public affairs professional and former journalist. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor since 2010.
ANDY SLAUGHTER (Labour) See above.
MILLICENT SCOTT (Liberal Democrat)
DAVID AKAN (Green) Planning Manager.
Comments - 294 Responses on “Hammersmith”
  1. “I don’t like quoting pulp fiction like Guido but he’s reported today that the Tories only have 1,500 members in London.”

    Diane Abbot would be proud of your maths….it is 15,000 not 1,500.

    Which works out about 200 per constituency so sounds about right to me.

    The odd thing about London Tory membership is that some of the strongest, richest associations with the highest membership are in seats the Tories haven’t held for decades….Hampstead for example. Whilst some Tory held seats have a comparatively tiny membership. In electoral deserts like Lewisham the party barely exists at all now.

  2. I imagine that is because Hampstead is a white collar middle class area and middle class white collar people are more likely to be in political parties – while some of the outer London seats like Romford (where Shaun Bailey lives according to Today’s Evening Standard) have lots of Tory voters but their demographics less likely to political party members.

  3. There is an Article in the Guardian today about the Tory Grassroots Brexit reaction and from Hornchurch Conservative club the members seem to be retired white Collar people.

  4. Sorry thats my dyscalculia playing up

  5. Incidentally, the point BM11 made about the demographics of party memberships is going to make life really tough for the Tories in what most of their strategists believe are their future battlegrounds. The way some talk about “Bishop Auckland, not Battersea”, it’s as though they think Bishop Auckland will just magically fall into their laps next time around.

    I wonder how footsoldiers they have in Bishop Auckland? Probably a couple dozen? Obviously the Tories will lose the ground war everywhere, but they will lose hand-over-fist in places like that. (Granted, probably there are proportionally fewer Labour members there for similar reasons, but they’ll also flood these places with hundreds of replica Owen Joneses.)

  6. ‘…hundreds of replica Owen Joneses’.

    Jesus Christ. Thanks Polltroll for a truly horrifying image!

  7. Will the Conservatives improve in London under a different leader?

  8. An extremely difficult question to answer at this moment in time!

  9. If the Conservatives were to select someone like Adam Afriyie or Kwasi Kwarteng as Leader, then yes, I could foresee their performance in London improving

  10. ‘If the Conservatives were to select someone like Adam Afriyie or Kwasi Kwarteng as Leader, then yes, I could foresee their performance in London improving’

    I couldn’t really

    Two arch leavers whom some in the Tory Party would say owe their Parliamentary careers to the colour of their skin

    And whilst Kwarteng has embraced the role of MP with vigour, the same can’t be said of Afriyie – one of the least active MPs in the House

  11. Well, I did say Shaun Bailey was an awful choice.

    His campaign kicked off this week and already he’s made two cringeworthy gaffes.

    First he has taken to labelling the Mayor as “Showbiz Sadiq”. Ignoring not just the fact that Khan is certainly the most low key and least showbizzy of London’s three mayors, but also the fact that he worked for and supported Boris, who was and is much more deserving of such a title.

    Secondly an old report he wrote a decade ago criticising Muslims and Hindus has been dug up and will be thrown at him relentlessly from now on.

  12. I guess he’s just trying random attack lines and seeing what sticks. I agree with you that ‘Showbiz Sadiq’ will most emphatically not stick. It sounds pretty desperate actually. I say this as someone who is hardly in love with Khan as Mayor. It’s hard to get worked up about him either way frankly.

  13. Shaun Bailey is acting like he has nothing to lose. But he may yet lose even the nothing that he has.

    Even someone like Andrew Rosindell would at least have got the voters out in Havering and Bromley. Against Bailey, Sadiq Khan could get close to 60% of the first-round vote.

  14. “Even someone like Andrew Rosindell would at least have got the voters out in Havering and Bromley”

    Havering and Bexley yes. But Rosindell wouldn’t have gone down well in Bromley, he would be seen as a bit too common and uncouth (ditto in the other posher bits of Tory London). Bromley likes its Tories right wing and posh – hence Boris doing extremely well there.

    “Against Bailey, Sadiq Khan could get close to 60% of the first-round vote.”

    Yep, as I said upthread, we could well see the first ever London mayoral election which is decided on first preferences alone.

    The slimmest of slim chances of the race turning competitive would be if a centrist well-regarded independent stepped in…a Lord Sugar or Charlie Mullins. But very very unlikely IMO.

  15. And I can’t imagine either of them being interested in running as an independent.

  16. Sugar probably not. Mullins though has got embroiled in controversy over his “Bollocks To Brexit” sign pointing at the rail lines into Waterloo station. He says he will go to jail rather than remove it, despite Lambeth council ordering its removal this week. Seems tailor made to springboard into a mayoral campaign. Khan has been pretty feeble on Brexit and crime, and has almost bankrupted TfL. A gifted independent may be able to hold his feet to the fire on those matters, the Tories this time will not.

  17. Were I a Londoner I’d probably vote for Mullins if he ran – certainly if it’s him v Khan and Bailey

    Sugar wouldn’t run – he enjoys his business career and is neither cut out not would he seek a career in politics

    Shame as I’d probably vote for him too

  18. I think it is unfair to say Khan has been feeble on Brexit. For me, he was the standout performer of that debate a few days before the vote. Since then he has spoken about putting the interests of Londoners first on Brexit, and maybe it’s me seeing what I want to see, but given the way London voted it’s quite reasonable to interpret this as some kind of People’s Vote option. He’s not been a #FBPE obsessive like, say, Chuka Umunna, but he’s the Mayor of London, he doesn’t have as much time or freedom to pursue pet causes like a backbench MP does.

  19. I have sympathy with Hemmy’s other criticisms, but also feel like he’s taking a lot of flak for stuff he doesn’t have that much control over (which I guess is just part of politics).

    The big critique you could level at him is that he’s a figurehead rather than a leader, he talks the talk but doesn’t walk the walk. But I think that’s something that suits the Mayoral position, the devolved powers aren’t that great and much of the role is ambassadorial.

  20. This is semi irrelevant to the discussion at hand but Mullins trying to brand himself as a centrist is laughable. Frankly this is one of the most depressing aspects of Brexit, I’d have hoped it would show up the Tories for what they mostly are (hard right monetarist ideologues no better than the US Republicans except with a better PR machine) and cause many a moderate one nation Tory to acknowledge what the party has become (and has been for the past 30+ years) and try to take action to claim it back.

    Instead its just allowed a load of died in the wool Thatcherites like George Osborne, Philip Hammond and Charlie Mullins to portray themselves as “moderates” just cos they oppose Brexit.

  21. To be fair for some tories the mayoralty is too powerful – Andrew Rosindell wants the mayor to lose policing powers and each council (with the boundaries reformed and councils renamed) to have policing powers – with the London Assembly an indirectly elected body of the council leaders.

  22. And that they should be more coordination between the outer boroughs of London and the counties they border/ and still seen as part of by many people.

  23. When I personalty don’t think more localism is that popular r – The Mayor of London role is popular but not sure the other mayor’s are popular – plenty of people I know just moan or celebrate about how their council is better than another council run by the same party (so polices should be similar). After all Council elections are often seen as refrendums on how the national government and opposition rather than votes on the issue.

  24. “some tories the mayoralty is too powerful – Andrew Rosindell wants the mayor to lose policing powers and each council (with the boundaries reformed and councils renamed) to have policing powers – with the London Assembly an indirectly elected body of the council leaders.”

    What a complete and utter tool.

    During the Major government even the Tories had realised that abolition of the GLC and devolution of its powers down to individual boroughs had been a complete disaster for London. Remember the original idea for an elected mayor of London came from Heseltine and Norris in the early/mid 1990s.

    Having an elected mayor has done wonders for London and I don’t see the slightest chance of it being scrapped. If the Tories wander off down that blind alley it will make them even more irrelevant and unpopular in the capital.

  25. “After all Council elections are often seen as refrendums on how the national government and opposition rather than votes on the issue.”

    That’s not true at all regarding the London Mayoralty.

    Had the mayoral election simply reflected government popularity, Labour would have walked it in 2000 and 2012, and the Tories might have won in 2004 (when they narrowly won the GLA elections on the same day).

  26. Yes the London Mayoralty has manged to devlop an identity of it’s own with it being on the candidates – through if the candidates become more standard politicians it might become more of a government approval vote.

  27. * develop.

  28. In the foreseeable future I expect it will be safe for Labour regardless of their national popularity. That is a bad thing in my view, but inevitable given how badly the Tories have alienated London.

  29. I’m not opposed to greater devolution to local authorities but abolishing the London Assembly in name only is stupid

  30. “I’m not opposed to greater devolution to local authorities but abolishing the London Assembly in name only is stupid”

    Devolving strategic functions to the London Boroughs like transport was done after the GLC was abolished and it was an unmitigated disaster. Doing it with policing will be even more so. Imagine Lewisham borough officers chasing a suspect on the south circular and having to desist when they crossed the Lambeth border. Etc etc. It would make London even more of a criminal’s paradise than it is already. All this stuff about “the boroughs working together” is just guff. Neighbouring boroughs are parochial and often hate each others’ guts, not just those under different political control.

  31. Your point highlights the problems with devolving transport locally like the policemen not crossing boroughs what happens to the train when it gets to the next borough. In sonewhere so interconnected like London you cant draw lines in policing and transport

  32. Housing, too, is something that could probably benefit if the GLA were given more control. It’s London as a whole, rather than individual boroughs, that needs more housing.

  33. If that happens the GLA needs to be beefed up considerably, so that it can handle the huge workload of planning inquiries and appeals, tasks which are done by borough councillors at present.

    The facelessness and invisibility of the GLA is arguably the main failure within a pretty successful establishment of a mayoral system. Very very few people know who their GLA member is and what they do….they are not well connected to their electors due to huge constituency sizes and top up lists. For all its failings this was not an issue with the GLC.

  34. The Tories proposed moving the GLA (Mayoral and assembly) to fully First Past the Post in Last years manifesto but with the minority government I don’t think we will see any changes this parliament (and personally should’t but then I am supporter of changing the electoral system in the UK in general).

  35. More than the electoral system it is the tiny number of members. The GLC had about 80 I think, one for each parliamentary constituency, in the days when there were more seats in London. It is impossible for a member who is responsible for two or three whole boroughs to connect with electors at the community level. I’d be in favour of ramping the GLA up to something like the Scottish parliament, which seems to perform well with the same mixed FPTP and top-up system.

  36. The Scottish Parliament has fewer constituents per representative than the London Assembly, but that is largely also because Holyrood has far more powers. Unless you devolved things like education significantly, I’m not sure you could justify having more MLAs from a parliamentary standpoint. What would they legislate on?

  37. The GLC model, which was housing, education, recreation etc in addition to the transport and policing which the mayor already oversees.

    Local government is going bankrupt and sooner or later they will have to be given devolved tax raising powers. More money from the centre just isn’t going to happen.

  38. And I not sure if more devolution is popular – postcode lottery and bitterness about differences between things Local government does is rife as it is.

  39. A GLA under FPTP would hurt the Tories.

  40. Currently certainly. But in the relatively recent past they would have benefitted, certainly in 2000-2008 I recall they won more GLA constituency seats than Labour.

  41. First poll for London 2020 – You Gov
    First Round
    Sadiq Khan 55%
    Shaun Bailey 28%
    Sian Berry (Green) 7%
    Siobhan Benita (Lib Dem) 4%

    If had to choose between the two it is 62-38 for Khan.

  42. And that Bailey is less popular than the Conservative party in London while Khan is more popular than the Labour Party

  43. I tend to shy away from making predictions on here, but I think it is quite safe to say that Bailey has f*** all chance. No sympathy here; he’s objectively a very poor candidate.

  44. As terrible a candidate as he is, the Tories’ problems in London go a lot further than Shaun Bailey.

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