Haltemprice & Howden

2015 Result:
Conservative: 26414 (54.2%)
Labour: 10219 (21%)
Lib Dem: 3055 (6.3%)
Green: 1809 (3.7%)
UKIP: 6781 (13.9%)
Others: 479 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16195 (33.2%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of the East Riding of Yorkshire council area.

Main population centres: Howden, Willerby, Kirk Ella, Anlaby, Cottingham.

Profile: This seat mainly consists of the the middle class suburbs of Hull that lie outside the city boundaries, places like Willerby, Kirk Ella, Anlaby and Cottingham (which also includes most of the Halls of Residence for Hull University). Beyond that it stretches out westwards along the A63 to take in smaller towns and villages like Bubwith and Howden itself. It is an affluent, middle class area with one of the highest proportions of owner-occupiers in the country.

Politics: Normally a safe Conservative seat, the seat was heavily targetted by the Liberal Democrats in 2005 who saw the chance to claim the scalp of a Conservative big hitter, ultimately unsuccessfully. In 2008 David Davis made the highly unusual decision to voluntarily submit to a by-election, stepping down to fight an election on the issue of 42 day detention. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP declined to contest the by-election, producing one of the strangest by-elections in recent times: David Davis against the Green party, the National Front and twenty-three other fringe and independent candidates, ranging from the naively optimistic, the eccentric to the downright insane. They included a beauty queen, a justice campaigner who had attacked a bailiff with a chainsaw, a man who claimed to the true Archbishop of Canterbury, and David Icke.


Current MP
DAVID DAVIS (Conservative) Born 1948, York. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Warwick University. Former senior executive with Tate and Lyle and member of the territorial army`s SAS regiment. First elected as MP for Boothferry in 1987. PPS to Francis Maude 1988-90, Government Whip 1990-93, Parliamentary Secretary, Office of Public Service and Science 1993-94, Minister of State in the foreign office 1994-1997. Conservative party chairman 2001-2002, shadow deputy Prime Minister 2002-2003, Shadow Home secretary 2003-2008. Davis did not serve on the Conservative front bench under William Hague, instead building a reputation as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee. He contested the Conservative leadership election in 2001, finishing in a distant fourth place but establishing himself as a significant figure. Following Iain Duncan Smith`s removal as leader two years later Davis was expected to stand, but instead stood aside to allow Michael Howard to become leader without a contest and making him the clear front runner to succeed Howard in due course. He entered the 2005 race as the overwhelming favourite, but after what was seen as a lacklustre conference speech he was eclipsed by David Cameron and ended up finishing as runner up. He continued as shadow home secretary until his shock resignation from the Commons in 2008 to fight a by-election on the issue of 42 day detention. He has since remained on the backbenches.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24486 (50%)
Lab: 7630 (16%)
LDem: 12884 (26%)
BNP: 1583 (3%)
Oth: 2154 (4%)
MAJ: 11602 (24%)
2005*
Con: 22792 (47%)
Lab: 6104 (13%)
LDem: 17676 (37%)
BNP: 798 (2%)
Oth: 659 (1%)
MAJ: 5116 (11%)
2001
Con: 18994 (43%)
Lab: 6898 (16%)
LDem: 17091 (39%)
UKIP: 945 (2%)
MAJ: 1903 (4%)
1997
Con: 21809 (44%)
Lab: 11701 (24%)
LDem: 14295 (29%)
Oth: 375 (1%)
MAJ: 7514 (15%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVID DAVIS (Conservative) See above.
EDWARD HART (Labour)
CARL MINNS (Liberal Democrat)
JOHN KITCHENER (UKIP)
TIM GREENE (Green)
DIANA WALLIS (Yorkshire First) Born 1954, Hitchen. Educated at North London Polytechnic. Solicitor. Former East Riding councillor, former Humberside councillor. Contested Braintree 1992, Haltemprice and Howden 1997. MEP for Yorkshire 1999-2012 for the Liberal Democrats.
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Comments - 93 Responses on “Haltemprice & Howden”
  1. More likely Minister for Brexit? I think Amber Rudd is getting Home Sec.

  2. David Davis apparently has the rather ungainly title of ‘Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union’. Will probably be known as ‘Brexit Secretary’.

  3. Confirming the above.

    So where will Theresa put Chris Grayling? She must have struck some kind of deal in return for his promise to front her campaign (even if it only ended up lasting a week or so).

  4. I really think she won’t have done deals with Grayling. He was the useful idiot to give her campaign Brexit supporting credibility. She will know as much as we do that his record as Justice Sec was horrendous. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays as Leader of the House or gets something like Transport.

  5. Or returns to Justice.
    I hope a women gets Justice as Lord Chancellor is one of the oldest positions in the world and it be good to see the first female one.

  6. The Davis appointment is interesting. Attractive because he wasn’t a hard-liner on Brexit and was Minister for Europe in the 90s. But he’s an eccentric personality – prone to resigning, very rebellious on the backbenches, currently suing the government and trying to impeach Tony Blair.

    With Boris and Fox too this could be a cabinet that is more prone to blow ups that the Cameron cabinets.

  7. I presume his efforts on Tony Blair will have to stop unless it becomes government policy.

  8. Secretary of State for Leave is a great title.

  9. I agree with David Davis and Maxim that article 50 should be triggered as quickly as possible in order to get out of the single market and abolish freedom of movment completely. We don’t need any agreement with the devolved nations and should just plough on.

  10. No, best to take time to consider our negotiating position and prepare for what will be a very tough and complex set of negotiations first. The May/Davis timetable of triggering Article 50 around the end of the year/start of next year sounds right to me. Not rushing into it but also not delaying it so much that it looks like we’re trying to put it off and causes more uncertainty. If the negotiation with the EU 27 can be completed in the two year timetable that could allow Brexit to take effect on 1st January 2020.

  11. Apparently there was an increase of the Conservative vote of 8.88% in the old Boothferry seat against the notional results had the seat existed in 1979. A bit strange?

  12. This was so obviously going to have electoral consequences:

    ‘ David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.

    Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.

    “I simply don’t agree that university should be this expensive,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

    “I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.

    “People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.

    “I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” ‘

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8185468/David-Davis-tuition-fees-encourage-students-to-rack-up-too-much-debt.html

    £27k plus of student tuition fees probably cost the LibDems 40MPs and now its cost the Conservatives 40 MPs.

  13. All well and good but how is it going to be paid for? If we had far fewer people going to university I’d support free tuition but the rate is now c 40%.

  14. Either cut the numbers going to university – which would free up more room for fee paying foreign students – and/or shift government spending from somewhere else. Overseas Aid for example.

    Whatever the solution, the current situation is untenable.

    At the next election Corbyn will promise to write off all student tuition fees debts and will gain even more support.

    Likewise get rid of HS2 and use the money for house construction.

    But the Osborne strategy of robbing the young to bribe the old wont work for the Conservatives any more, let alone the socio-economic damage it has caused.

  15. Problem is though that merely changing their opinion on tuition fees is not going to swing any young voters to the Conservatives. The Tories are never going to outflank Labour in that regard.

    If you believe it is the right thing to do, by all means go ahead. But don’t pretend it’s a foolproof electoral panacea.

  16. Poll Troll- not sure about that. Although Labour is always going to fare better with younger voters than the Conservatives I think the middle-class private sector-employed ones might be swayed by some helpful policies. It’s not a panacea but it has to be worth a go.

  17. Nixon killed off the student protest movement by removing the draft. Blair won a landslide on the promise of no income tax rises.

    You don’t have to outflank your opponents; just kill off potentially difficult issues.

    That’s not to say that the cost/benefit ratio falls in favour of lowering or even eliminating tuition fees, from a Tory perspective. It’s just to say that it could easily make a big electoral difference.

  18. PT – “the Tories are never going to outflank Labour in that regard”

    Untrue. Indeed in 2005, it was the Tory policy to abolish Tuition Fees.

  19. The current MP keeps “Brexit Secretary” post. Unsurprising I guess, May and DD have a few things in common – one of which is forcing upon the public, unnecessary expensive elections.

  20. Alex

    I love your analyses and predictions, always insightful . . .

    Just keep the partisan stuff out of your posts, I’ve noticed quite a few digs lately, your posts are better for it. Remember there’s always going to be people that don’t agree with your view, our opinions are not always ‘a given’ much as we all like to think we represent the mainstream.

    Tbf we all need pulling up on this at times, me definitely included . . . especially on topics / policies that we feel very passionately about.

  21. BTS…Ok..I will try to be less supportive of the current Lab party & it’s current leadership. If u look carefully tho my partisan posts almost always follow a partisan post from the other side.

  22. BTW…I have commissioned Paul Way of PollWay to study the comments pages and to report back to as to whether there is a Right wing / Tory bias on those pages.

  23. Alex F

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  24. You joke but we’ll probably hear back from Paul now

  25. I’m sure everyone’s seen by now the former aid of David Davis James Chapman and his online rant against Brexit and his plans to set up a new centrist anti Brexit party called “the Democrats”

    Common consensus is that for such a party to make even a moderate splash its going to need some defectors from the current parties so I thought I’d have a look at the possibilities.

    As far as I can see any defector would need to match the following criteria…

    1) Must be very pro EU/anti Brexit (obviously)
    2) Must represent a sufficiently pro EU seat so as to feasibly win on such an anti Brexit platform
    3) Said seat mustn’t be so safe for either party as to make winning it under a new party banner impossible
    4) Must be of the moderate wing of their respective party so they can countenance joining a party that is openly centrist.
    5) In relation to that last point must be highly disillusioned with the present direction of their current party to warrant leaving it.

    As far as I can tell only two current MP’s match this criteria.
    The first being Ken Clarke but he’s a non starter I feel. I imagine that despite his differences with the current leadership he’s too tribally loyal to the Tories, plus its probably a bit late in his career to start jumping to another party especially when he’ll probably retire next election.

    This leaves us with just one individual that is Neil Coyle MP for Bermondsey, as far as I can tell he’s the only one who might jump but given how decisively he beat Simon Hughes in 2017 it might be fair to say Bermondsey’s liberal flirtation is fading into history.

    With all this in mind it doesn’t look great for the prospect of a new anti Brexit centrist party or at least its prospects of picking up defectors.

  26. Obviously the Democrats are never going to be a thing, not least because their frontman appears to be having a nervous breakdown. I feel genuinely sory for him.

    But if we are playing this game: how about Heidi Allen? I know she voted to activate Article 50, which you could ague counts her out, but:

    – She’s quite possibly the most rebellious Tory, in attitude if not in actual commons votes, right now.

    – South Cambridgeshire is very pro-EU for a rural safe Tory seat, about 60% reamin IIRC. Winnable if she can squeeze the Labour and Lib Dem votes.

    – Rumours persist around her deselection anyway. She might decide to jump before she is pushed.

  27. Heidi Allen is a definite possibility but she doesn’t strike me as the “so pro EU she’s willing to risk her whole career” type. I have no doubt that if a slew of both Lab and Tory MP’s defected and gave the “Democrats” a group of a dozen or more MP’s she’d probably jump too but I highly doubt she’d be the first to take the plunge.

  28. We’re talking hypotheticals here anyway. A new centrist party once looked plausible, but not any more. And if it is going to exist, there are far more convincing figureheads than a man who has taken to broadcasting revealing selfies to the world. It would be like Karen Danczuk starting her own party.

  29. From what i remember of heidi she might be a rebel but wpuld stop short of defection. There were quite a few cllrs i remember defecting from the Tories in St Albans and she wasnt one

  30. @ Polltroll

    “Rumours persist around her deselection anyway.” (re Heidi Allen)

    Not true. There has been no corroborating evidence at all produced to support one poster’s repeated contention that she was close to de-selection, and locally no press reports or een ‘rumours’ at all.

    On checking such evidence as is available, it actually appears that the small committee within the South Cambs local Party which re-selected her did not take the matter to a members vote – in other words the decision was taken one stage before a possible de-selction vote, as opposed to being one vote away from de-selection.

  31. A few executive members voting unsuccessfully for a full membership reselection vote is fairly common in Conservative associations and as such is hardly likely to get into even the local press. Partly because the said executive is small and often unwilling to leak such information.

    True that it is misleading that such a situation would be “one vote from deselection”. More like “one vote away from the full local membership deciding on whether to reselect”. More often than not, incumbents survive a full membership vote – armchair members tend to be more loyal than executive members who often have their own ambitions and animosities against the sitting MP.

  32. The Brexit Secretary David Davis has resigned according to the Daily Mail/ Twitter.

  33. Yes, the resignation letter is polite, fair but forceful in content.

    I had expected a few to follow, but Sky says only Steve Baker has resigned (as well as ex Peterborough MP who I think’s dept role was a personal gift from DD after he lost his seat).

  34. Suella too

  35. I honestly don’t know whether this makes things better or worse. Leaves the government in a bit more of a mess than it was before, but hopefully the next Brexit Secretary (which everyone thinks will be Michael Gove) will take things a bit more seriously, and put in the hard work required.

    If nothing else, I will miss the David Davis sketches on Dead Ringers.

  36. Raab got the job. The Tristans of Chelsea won’t be happy.

    Gove tipped to be Foreign Sec(which he probably would have got had he not knifed Boris at the last minute).

    I spotted that Boris’s bag carrier, Jake Berry looked very unhappy. So HH is probably right re May outmanoeuvring them again – apparently No10 announced Boris had gone before he could and removed his car and security before he had time to replace them!

  37. ‘The Tristans of Chelsea’

    Fuck right off!

  38. Tough to see why anyone would *want* to be Brexit Secretary right now.

    Reminds me of this sketch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHnyQXyuTGY

  39. I’d say that of Health – but of course Matt Hancock would accept anything ever offered.

  40. Matt W – Suella B has confirmed she has not resigned.

    A couple of PPSs did though (Boris’s Conor Burns and Bolton W’s Chris Green).

  41. Andrea Jenkyns also resigned about a week back, before Chequers.

  42. Mark Wallace made a good point re promotions:

    Raab is DD’s ex Chief of Staff.

    Kit M is Boris’s former Dep Mayor.

    Chris Heaton-Harris is a well known Eurosceptic.

  43. Though Stewart Jackson confirmed he’d been sacked despite Raabs happiness for him to continue

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