Halesowen & Rowley Regis

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18933 (43.2%)
Labour: 15851 (36.2%)
Lib Dem: 905 (2.1%)
Green: 849 (1.9%)
UKIP: 7280 (16.6%)
MAJORITY: 3082 (7%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands. Parts of the Dudley and Sandwell council areas.

Main population centres: Halesowen, Rowley Regis, Cradley Heath.

Profile: A crossborough seat at the far south of the West Midlands conurbation, taking in Halesowen from the Borough of Dudley and Rowley Regis from Sandwell. Halesown is a middle-class, dormitory suburb, consisting largely of private housing. Rowley Regis is a more traditional black country manufacturing area, dominated by terraced housing and council estates.

Politics: The seat is very much a marginal - Halesowen tends to the Conservatives while Rowley Regis tends to vote Labour. The seat was won by Labour on its creation in 1997, but fell to the Conservatives in 2010..


Current MP
JAMES MORRIS (Conservative) Born 1967, Nottingham. Educated at Birmingham University. Former Director of Localis. First elected as MP for Halesowen and Rowley Regis in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18115 (41%)
Lab: 16092 (37%)
LDem: 6515 (15%)
UKIP: 2824 (6%)
Oth: 433 (1%)
MAJ: 2023 (5%)
2005*
Con: 14906 (36%)
Lab: 19243 (47%)
LDem: 5204 (13%)
UKIP: 1974 (5%)
MAJ: 4337 (10%)
2001
Con: 13445 (34%)
Lab: 20804 (53%)
LDem: 4089 (10%)
UKIP: 936 (2%)
MAJ: 7359 (19%)
1997
Con: 16029 (33%)
Lab: 26366 (54%)
LDem: 4169 (9%)
Oth: 953 (2%)
MAJ: 10337 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JAMES MORRIS (Conservative) See above.
STEPHANIE PEACOCK (Labour) Educated at Queen Mary University of London. Trade union officer.
PETER TYZACK (Liberal Democrat) Former South Glocestershire councillor. Contested Bristol East 1997, Bristol North West 2001, Filton and Bradley Stoke 2010.
DEAN PERKS (UKIP) Builder and decorator. Dudley councillor since 2014.
JOHN PAYNE (Green) Former Dudley councillor for the Labour party.
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Comments - 82 Responses on “Halesowen & Rowley Regis”
  1. They are won and lost in medium sized towns.

  2. Assuming that Wolverhampton South West is a lost cause, the main 3 Conservative defences in the West Midlands metropolitan area are all partly or wholly in the Dudley Metropolitan Borough. The Conservatives have had some dismal local election results since 2010 so must be encouraged by this poll. Even if this seat falls, the narrow margin currently predicted for Labour suggests that the Conservatives can successfully defend Dudley South and Stourbridge. Both are vital if they have any ambition of remaining the largest party in the Commons.

  3. “They are won and lost in medium sized towns.”

    A disproportionate number of which are in the Midlands or just outside. For example Bedford and Milton Keynes South are officially in the Eastern and SE regions respectively but have more in common with the southern part of the East Midlands.

  4. Still no Lib Dem candidate here, surprise surprise. There can’t be that many takers for this seat, what with a lost deposit most likely on the cards…

  5. Interesting fact about the Lib Dem candidate in 2001 here actually- Patrick Harley is now Leader of the Conservative Group on Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, and has for most of his political career been a member of the Tories. He wasn’t with the Lib Dems for that long, just from 2000 until he returned to the Tories in 2002- I find that intriguing, heaven knows why.

  6. Gonna change my prediction here to a very narrow tory hold. Along with a few other seats like Dudley South, Chester, Stevenage and Northampton North going that way it might just be enough to make the Tories the largest party.

    And I’m not going to make predictions for every single seat this time, considering how time consuming it can be.

  7. The Lib Dem candidate is Peter Tyzack.

  8. “And I’m not going to make predictions for every single seat this time, considering how time consuming it can be.”

    You don’t really need to make predictions for every seat, just the seats that are going to change hands I think.

  9. Absolutely on a knife edge by the looks of things. Will be a key seat for the Tories to defend and Labour to win with a 2.4% swing needed.

    Were Labour to get a 2.4% swing nationwide, Anthony’s ‘Basic GB Swingometer’ calculates that Labour would be on 303 seats with the Tories on 289. If one then subtracts 35 from the Labour total for losses to the SNP, then they would have 268 to the Tories 289. Truly a deeply hung parliament.

    All incredibly speculative of course, but quite entertaining. I think I had reduced the Lib Dem share to 13% on that calculation which might of course be considerably overstating their vote share.

  10. Conservative Hold. 500 majority.

  11. I think this will be neck and neck but CON hold by in the region of 250.

  12. A Con hold is a real possibility here but I am going with a Lab gain by 1000.

  13. Full Result:

    Con 18,933 43.2%
    Lab 15,851 36.2%
    UKIP 7,280 16.6%
    Lib Dem 905 2.1%
    Green 849 1.9%

    Majority 3,082 : Swing 1.2% to Conservative

  14. This MP’s closing remarks in his contribution in Parliament yesterday come very close to my own feelings and, I believe, many heavy-hearted people who went out and voted Remain on June 23rd.

    “I also want to make a broader point about Britain’s place in the world. Even though I have concerns about the European Union and voted for Britain to remain in it, I have never been a fan of its political structures. We are now on the cusp of an opportunity. For 40 years, we have spent a lot of diplomatic resource and energy on ​managing our relationships across the EU. We now need to change our posture in the world, to be much more outward looking and to use our diplomatic reach and resources to change how we influence the world. We have enormous soft power to deploy in the world, and we should invest more in our hard power. That combination of diplomatic reach, soft power resources and the ability to deploy hard power gives a Britain outside the EU the unique opportunity to stop expending energy on it and its predilections and to focus outwards. As we embark on the renegotiation, there is a real opportunity to challenge many of the assumptions that have driven British foreign policy over the past 40 years and to forge a new role as a global, outward-looking Britain that works for all the regions of the United Kingdom.”

  15. “This MP’s closing remarks… come very close to my own feelings and, I believe, many heavy-hearted people who went out and voted Remain on June 23rd.”

    The polling consistently shows that almost all the people who voted Remain last June would do so again if a referendum were held today. That hardly supports your theory that there are vast numbers of people who voted Remain “with a heavy heart”. More that the issue which divided the country down the middle continues to do so.

    Article 50 was always going to be a side issue though IMO it is correct that parliament had the final say, and I think Clarke, the Lib Dems and the Labour rebels did the wrong thing by opposing it. The key debate now is shaping Brexit and that’s where Remainers need to make their voice heard rather than fighting lost battles. I can’t see how the govt will be able to avoid the need to obtain a mandate for whatever deal they secure….this could be through a general election or possibly a referendum, even if the referendum is simply a “deal or no deal” vote which doesn’t alter the fact that we are leaving.

  16. “The polling consistently shows that almost all the people who voted Remain last June would do so again if a referendum were held today”

    …latest Opinium poll suggests that leave has consolidated its lead…just a poll, but belies “the polling consistently shows…”. they don’t “consistenly” show anything much on this question.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/30/polling-matters-opinium-survey-public-backs-brexit-as-the-right-decision-by-52-to-39-as-opposition-softens/

  17. Fair enough, but there have also been quite a few polls which have essentially replicated the 52-48 split IIRC.

    The key message is that Leavers are united and Remainers very divided, therefore despite the relatively close balance between the two, a very hard Brexit seems quite likely.

  18. From a purely personal perspective I was very much “on the fence”, debating internally whether it was better to be inside the tent purging oneself out, or outside the tent purging oneself in – with a view to embracing the result whichever way it went. All the while I was intensely angry at the Remain campaign in particular but considered both campaigns as an exercise in getting people to vote the other way.

    My father was one of those who voted Remain “with a heavy heart”, much like BT Says.

  19. ”The polling consistently shows that almost all the people who voted Remain last June would do so again if a referendum were held today. That hardly supports your theory that there are vast numbers of people who voted Remain “with a heavy heart”.”

    @H.Hemming
    I think what he meant was there were a large chunk of people (particularly Tory remainers) who don’t like the EU but voted remain ‘with a heavy heart’ because they thought leaving would be a bit too much of a risk. The people who passionately love the EU are a small minority of the country.

    While voting intentions might not have changed all that much most of the country has accepted the result of the referendum and agrees that Article 50 should be triggered. The deep split is more on the left than on the right atm hence Labour’s ongoing woes over Brexit.

  20. *H.Hemmelig. Sorry for misspelling your name :P.

  21. PMT

    I guess your explanation of what I meant is pretty much correct, thank you.

    HH

    In addition to what Peter Crawford cites regarding one of the most recent polls out (which isn’t really my point tbh, although it may confirm it), you are missing the point anyway.

    As one of the Remainers, if I was asked the question that you cite I would definitely take it to mean a hypothetical question about if the vote was being held today rather than last June (especially given that there is obviously no prospect of being asked a second time), to gauge if people would vote differently now knowing what they do. And the answer I would give would be ‘yes, I would still vote Remain’ in that hypothesis.

    This is both entirely differnt to thinking that we should reverse the result now it has happened – a very unprincipled and dangerous thing to do – and is also entirely compatible with ‘having a heavy heart’ in the first place. So in a sense your point is just a straw man, and I still believe that many, many people feel like this MP who I quoted higher up.

  22. “(especially given that there is obviously no prospect of being asked a second time)” – I meant a second referendum asking people again, i.e. to rethink. Reading my post again, I realised this wasn’t clear.

  23. ” The deep split is more on the left than on the right atm hence Labour’s ongoing woes over Brexit.”

    Good point. I am amazed at how the Tory remainers- Soubry, Grieve, Morgan, Burt, Carmichael- have come into line, for now.

    If the boot had been on the other foot and remain had won, I don’t believe that Bill Cash, Redwood, Steve Baker, David Nuttall, Philip Davies et al. would have been so acquiescent.

    I suppose that illustrates the much more general point that the leavers were that much more ideological and committed. I was pretty sure we would leave in the end, because of the fervour of one side and the relative apathy of the other. I just didn’t think it would be so soon. I suppose Cameron is the man to thank for that.

  24. ”If the boot had been on the other foot and remain had won, I don’t believe that Bill Cash, Redwood, Steve Baker, David Nuttall, Philip Davies et al. would have been so acquiescent.”

    I agree, Cameron appears to have solved the deep decades old rift in the Tory Party (at least for now) though not in the way he intended while simultaneously ripping open a huge division on the left. I think if Remain had won 52-48 the Tories would be ripping themselves to shreds over the issue in such a way not seen since the days of Maastricht.

  25. I think that’s right, especially given the ruthless and dishonest tactics the government used to try to get a Remain vote. The wounds would have been deeper even than after Maastricht.

  26. Peter C: “I was pretty sure we would leave in the end, because of the fervour of one side and the relative apathy of the other.”

    The fundamental problem, when the referendum came, was that the Eurosceptics had been honing their arguments for twenty years or more, and the Remain side ended up bringing swords to a gunfight.

  27. Events aligned “nicely” for LEAVE. Just one example – The biggest single fear for people for wanting BREXIT- immigration – was sharpened by the various atrocities in Belgium France and Tunisia; the fear of the encroachment of ISIS into Europe.

    If, prior to the referendum, the EU had excused GB from Freedom of Movement, REMAIN would have easily won.

  28. ”If, prior to the referendum, the EU had excused GB from Freedom of Movement, REMAIN would have easily won.”

    Oh of course but there was no chance of the EU ever agreeing to that.

  29. “The fundamental problem, when the referendum came, was that the Eurosceptics had been honing their arguments for twenty years or more, and the Remain side ended up bringing swords to a gunfight.”

    Agreed. The remain case was never made by anyone in the 20 years before the vote, apart from Blair, Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine and a few lib dems. The popular press were hostile as were the Conservative Party, UKIP and most of the broadsheets apart from the Guardian.

  30. “Events aligned “nicely” for LEAVE. Just one example – The biggest single fear for people for wanting BREXIT – immigration – was sharpened by the various atrocities in Belgium France and Tunisia; the fear of the encroachment of ISIS into Europe.”

    One could argue that those events were direct consequences of the interventionist foreign policy enacted by the same sort of people who promoted EU membership.

  31. This seat is home to the BBC election Family heard on the World at One. A fascinating look at a family election support through they quite a bit more politically aware than the Usual extended family.

  32. This, Stourbridge and Dudley South all stood out as strong Tory holds in the Midlands.

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