Guildford

2015 Result:
Conservative: 30802 (57.1%)
Labour: 6534 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 8354 (15.5%)
Green: 2558 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4774 (8.8%)
Others: 964 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 22448 (41.6%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ANNE MILTON (Conservative) Born 1955. Educated at Haywards Heath Grammar School and St Barts Hospital, London. Former NHS nurse. Reigate councillor 1999-2004. First elected as MP for Guildford in 2005. Shadow Minister for Tourism 2006-07, Shadow Health minister 2007-10. Under-Secretary of State for Public Health 2010-12. Government Whip since 2012, Deputy Chief Whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29618 (53%)
Lab: 2812 (5%)
LDem: 21836 (39%)
UKIP: 1021 (2%)
Oth: 280 (1%)
MAJ: 7782 (14%)
2005*
Con: 22595 (44%)
Lab: 5054 (10%)
LDem: 22248 (43%)
GRN: 811 (2%)
Oth: 923 (2%)
MAJ: 347 (1%)
2001
Con: 19820 (41%)
Lab: 6558 (14%)
LDem: 20358 (43%)
UKIP: 736 (2%)
Oth: 370 (1%)
MAJ: 538 (1%)
1997
Con: 24230 (43%)
Lab: 9945 (17%)
LDem: 19439 (34%)
Oth: 694 (1%)
MAJ: 4791 (8%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNE MILTON (Conservative) See above.
RICHARD WILSON (Labour) Airline pilot.
KELLY-MARIE BLUNDELL (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Highworth Grammar School and Kent University. Fundraising manager.
HARRY ALDRIDGE (UKIP) Educated at Hurstpierpoint College. Entrepreneur. Contested Horsham 2010.
JOHN PLETTS (Green)
JOHN MORRIS (Peace) Born 1938, London. Contested Guildford 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, South East region 2009, 2014 European elections.
SUSAN PARKER (Guildford Greenbelt)
GERRI SMYTH (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 114 Responses on “Guildford”
  1. H. Hemmelig is only showing a 1% LD->Con swing.

    I think its the LDs he is being generous to, not the conservatives.

  2. I would imagine more like 3%.

  3. From Shadow Health to second fiddle whip is a bit of a come down

  4. The LD to Con swing was massive here in 2010 however so arguably there’s not so much potential for more.

    I can’t see the Lib Dems getting below the 33% level, which they have been consistently above here since the 1980s.

  5. Easy Tory hold. Could certainly see this happening:-

    Conservative: 50%
    Liberal Democrat: 28%
    Labour: 13%
    UKIP: 6%
    Others: 3%

  6. A nearly tripled Labour vote seems a little unlikely. Con hold though all right.

  7. I’m with Hemmelig. LDs shouldn’t be below 33%, and certainly not below 30%.

    My best guess:

    Conservative 51
    Lib Dem 33
    Labour 9
    UKIP 5
    Others 2

  8. A Guildford Tory Cllr has been arrested for claiming to be a barrister. Monika Juneja, 35, claims the complainant was political and racist, but admits she was never called to the Bar.

  9. Good to see you’re a Surrey observer too..

  10. I’d have thought a classic David Howell majority (i.e. 21%) is possible for Anne Milton though I think PT Richards has it about right.

  11. Groper is maybe pleasuring himself too much with his estimates… the LibDem PPC seems to be all over the place or maybe I am just imagining it..

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/kelly_marie_blundell

    I guess the council results might give us some clue on Thursday on whether she might get more traction than Milton..

    The UKIP vote has nowhere to go but up here…

  12. Antiochian-can I just clarify something? When you say that the Lib Dem PPC might get more traction than Milton are you suggesting the possibility of a Lib Dem gain?

  13. Not really…. but stranger things have happened… less a case of her vote going up much but I was more wondering if UKIP might erode the Tory support much…

  14. Last elections were an all-up in 2011.. next is in 2015.. so nothing doing this week.. these were the last results… UKIP scarcely figured candidate-wise.. are they more present in the area now?

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2011/guildford11.pdf

  15. See that’s the advantage of electing in thirds – gives us lots to get our teeth into.

  16. “Not really…. but stranger things have happened… less a case of her vote going up much but I was more wondering if UKIP might erode the Tory support much…”

    UKIP can take plenty of votes from the Lib Dems as well, as you saw at Eastleigh and are about to find out in the Newark by-election.

    If UKIP do well here it’s absolutely inconceivable that the Lib Dems would remain at 39%. In any case I do not rate this as being very fertile UKIP territory in a general election, a bit too prosperous.

  17. Lovelace ward By-election result: LibDem 555, Cons 225, UKIP 63, Lab 32. LibDem gain from Conservative. 48% Turnout.

  18. This ward is in Guildford borough, but Mole Valley constituency

  19. Apparently according to the local press there has been some falling out among the Tory councillors to do with proposed development on green belt land in this area……explaining a very bad result in what is normally a rock-solid ward for the Tories.

  20. If there is one thing likely to produce large swings at local byelections (apart from sordid stuff) it is planning disputes.

  21. Yes, the turnout is also double that of most local by-elections.

  22. Another big clue

  23. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/mp-feels-the-squeeze-sitting-next-to-large-bottomed-passenger-on-train-9902944.html

    ‘Former public health minister Anne Milton today urged “large bottomed” commuters to slim down if they want to sit on narrow train seats.’

  24. I’m doing my bit, Anne.

  25. Tory Cllr Monika Juneja has appeared in Court on 8 fraud offences. Her Trial is set for May 2015.

  26. You’ve missed out a candidate!

    Susan Parker, Guildford Greenbelt Group is standing for election in May 2015

  27. Conservative Hold. 14,000 maj

  28. Best Labour result against the Lib Dems/Libs since 1979 but a lower vote than in 1997 and 2001.

  29. This may interest Joe James B and others (I posted this on the Vote UK Forum):

    Labour came second in the following constituencies for the first time since 1979:

    Bournemouth East
    Harborough
    South Norfolk
    Penrith and the Border
    Sheffield Hallam
    Thirsk and Malton
    Tunbridge Wells
    Woking
    Wokingham

    They came 2nd in the following constituencies for the first time since 1970:

    Aldershot
    Chelmsford
    Henley
    Salisbury
    Weston-super-Mare

  30. It would also be interesting to see in which seats the LDs managed to hold second place when they didn’t take it in 1979 and/or 1970.

  31. I’ve had a go:

    Bermondsey
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bosworth
    Bradford East
    Burnley
    Brecon and Radnor
    Cambridge
    Colchester
    Edinburgh West
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Manchester Withington
    Portsmouth South
    Redcar
    Solihull

    The Liberals were 2nd in Ross and Cromarty and Caithness and Sutherland in 1970.

  32. I feel that it’s telling that out of that list Bosworth is the only seat they’ve never actually won- perhaps this could be an indication that in the longterm it may actually be a realistic hope of a gain for the Lib Dems given the extremely active and popular young councillor who has now stood for them twice and could be in it for the long haul if he continues to work the seat?

  33. Labour’s vote generally seemed to increase in places where it was less likely to gain them a seat this year.
    Up 7% here – no doubt with the LD collapse – and there are other similar examples,

    and also generally up more in existing seats .

  34. Swanarcadian – didn’t Labour get 2nd in 1997 in Chelmsford’s equivalent seat at the time, West Chelmsford?

  35. Not quite:

    Con 23,781
    LD 17,090
    Lab 15,463

  36. But they did come second in West Chelmsford in 2001.

  37. l was almost right then….thanks Andy & TheResults. Perhaps l should just call you The for short.

  38. No problems Barnaby!

  39. Labour’s candidate for Guildford in 2015, Richard Wilson, has resigned from the party following today’s re-election of Corbyn as leader:

    https://twitter.com/WindleshamRich/status/779639841562718208

  40. Hardly surprising. Any prospective Labour candidate for Guildford is highly unlikely to be on the left, or even the soft left, of the party.

  41. You’d be surprised how these things work in practice. Often Labour members in strongly Tory areas are very far to the left, albeit also often few in number.

  42. Good riddance to bad rubbish, I know absolutely nothing of the guy but given the result in 2015 he cant have been anything that impressive. I know this is the heart of Surrey so Labour aren’t going to be anywhere close to competitive but with the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and a sub par Green and UKIP performance in a seat with a very high student population Labour should have been able to squeak a (albeit very distant) second place here.

  43. Haha at rivers comment

  44. ‘I know absolutely nothing of the guy’- but I’ll proceed to mercilessly slag him off anyway. A great example of the kinder, gentler politics, folks.

  45. I don’t claim to be Corbyn, I’m not even a particularly big Corbyn supporter.

  46. I agree….some of the most left wing CLPs were in Tory areas.

  47. Nice to see this outbreak of magnanimity, lol.

  48. A good example was the Paddington South CLP that was abolished in the 1960s. That constituency that covered Bayswater never elected a Labour MP.

  49. A new moderate CLP was created in its place.

  50. If a former candidate is the biggest name to resign, I think both Corbyn and the loyal majority of both his supporters and opponents will be surprised and relieved.

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