Guildford

2015 Result:
Conservative: 30802 (57.1%)
Labour: 6534 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 8354 (15.5%)
Green: 2558 (4.7%)
UKIP: 4774 (8.8%)
Others: 964 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 22448 (41.6%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ANNE MILTON (Conservative) Born 1955. Educated at Haywards Heath Grammar School and St Barts Hospital, London. Former NHS nurse. Reigate councillor 1999-2004. First elected as MP for Guildford in 2005. Shadow Minister for Tourism 2006-07, Shadow Health minister 2007-10. Under-Secretary of State for Public Health 2010-12. Government Whip since 2012, Deputy Chief Whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29618 (53%)
Lab: 2812 (5%)
LDem: 21836 (39%)
UKIP: 1021 (2%)
Oth: 280 (1%)
MAJ: 7782 (14%)
2005*
Con: 22595 (44%)
Lab: 5054 (10%)
LDem: 22248 (43%)
GRN: 811 (2%)
Oth: 923 (2%)
MAJ: 347 (1%)
2001
Con: 19820 (41%)
Lab: 6558 (14%)
LDem: 20358 (43%)
UKIP: 736 (2%)
Oth: 370 (1%)
MAJ: 538 (1%)
1997
Con: 24230 (43%)
Lab: 9945 (17%)
LDem: 19439 (34%)
Oth: 694 (1%)
MAJ: 4791 (8%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNE MILTON (Conservative) See above.
RICHARD WILSON (Labour) Airline pilot.
KELLY-MARIE BLUNDELL (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Highworth Grammar School and Kent University. Fundraising manager.
HARRY ALDRIDGE (UKIP) Educated at Hurstpierpoint College. Entrepreneur. Contested Horsham 2010.
JOHN PLETTS (Green)
JOHN MORRIS (Peace) Born 1938, London. Contested Guildford 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, South East region 2009, 2014 European elections.
SUSAN PARKER (Guildford Greenbelt)
GERRI SMYTH (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 114 Responses on “Guildford”
  1. Who is the most high-profile person to resign from the Labour Party since Jeremy’s first election? I can only think of Alan Sugar.

  2. Anne Milton’s views on brexit out of step with a constituency that went 59% Remain. Lib Dem candidate Zoe Franklin could bring this seat back to being a Tory marginal.

  3. The Lib Dems would have to be in the twenties nationally to pose any realistic threat here. Might be the sort of area they could challenge for at a local level though.

  4. Rather than some great conversion to the lib Dems, the main reason the Lib Dems won here in 2001 was 4000 Tories didn’t go out and vote.

    So unless the Tories are caught napping on the job (and judging by Anne Milton’s efforts since 2005 that hasn’t happened) then the Lib Dems aren’t going to win here again.

    There seems to be an incorrect assumption on the part of sone lib Dems that if you voted remain you will be pro their party, this isn’t the case, otherwise the lib Dems would be 48% in the polls…which they are t.

  5. I’m pretty sure Anne Milton was a Remainer, though as deputy chief whip she may not have actively campaigned?

    I doubt voters in this sort of place are, despite their Remain votes, angry enough about Brexit for it to make a difference to election results.

  6. “I doubt voters in this sort of place are, despite their Remain votes, angry enough about Brexit for it to make a difference to election results”.

    This piece of research published last week (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak) using data from the last three ICM polls suggest that there aren’t many of those kind of voters anywhere, let alone in a seats like this. It shows the Conservatives actually making a net gain among remain voters relative to 2015.

    I always thought that predictions of a huge anti-Brexit Lib Dem revival were overblown, hence my bet that they would win fewer than 28 seat. Indeed others seem to have taken the same view, as that bet is no longer available. The over/under line for the Lib Dems now looks to be 22.5 with those bookmakers offering the bet.

    I’d factored in the Tories losing Twickenham, Kingston, Bath and Cheltenham, and not regaining Richmond. On the basis of this evidence the Lib Dems might not even win all of those seats.

  7. ‘I always thought that predictions of a huge anti-Brexit Lib Dem revival were overblown, hence my bet that they would win fewer than 28 seat. ‘

    I think that’s generous and don’t see them getting up to even 20 myself

    People need to remember that despite Brexit, Europe is seldom one of voter’s top concerns when it comes to a general election and whilst I’m sure this will change once the economic consequences of Brexit start to bite, that’s someway down the line at the moment

  8. “I think that’s generous and don’t see them getting up to even 20 myself”.

    Yes, the 22.5 line still looks on the high side for me, but less margin for error than the previous one.

    There will probably be another outbreak of high Lib Dem expectations when the results from Thursday’s elections come in. They’ll improve substantially from a low base.

    I fully anticipate that counting for nothing at the GE. Similar happened with the Clegg-gasm of 2010, and the expectation in 2015 that despite dire Lib Dem national poll ratings their well entrenched incumbents would be hard to shift.

  9. With the seats Kieran lists, plus a few others (Cambridge, Edinburgh W, Fife NE, Cheadle?), and allowing for the odd loss back to the Tories (Carshalton?), it’s a good bet the Lib Dems can get 15 seats or so. Beyond that they need to start winning seats back in the south west, which probably won’t be easy this time. I’ve been surprised how poor the LD campaign has been so far though there’s time yet. They will vastly improve their vote in Remania but it will mostly be wasted on quite strong second places.

  10. ‘There will probably be another outbreak of high Lib Dem expectations’

    There usually is in the run up to the election. That was most obviously the case in 1983 and 1987, but it also happened in 1992, 2005 and 2010

    ‘the expectation in 2015 that despite dire Lib Dem national poll ratings their well entrenched incumbents would be hard to shift.’

    I think it was the Ashcroft polls mixed with local by-election results (which you should never read much into because of the dire turnout) which cemented that opinion

  11. This is very depressing reading. There is little chance of getting rid of the Tories in Guildford despite large numbers of students and NHS workers. Yet again, due to the first part the post system my vote and the vote of others like me, will be wasted.

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