Great Yarmouth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19089 (42.9%)
Labour: 12935 (29.1%)
Lib Dem: 1030 (2.3%)
Green: 978 (2.2%)
UKIP: 10270 (23.1%)
Others: 167 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6154 (13.8%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Norfolk.

Main population centres:

Profile: Great Yarmouth is a seaside resort and ferry port on the Norfolk coast, just above the border with Suffolk. The consituency consists of Great Yarmouth itself, as well as the rural hinterland and the surrounding villages.

Politics: Great Yarmouth is a Conservative leaning Con-Lab marginal - it has been keenly contested between Labour and the Conservatives, but is usually only winnable for Labour in their better victories, such as the Blair landslides and 1966.


Current MP
BRANDON LEWIS (Conservative) Born 1971, Harold Wood. Educated at Buckingham University. Former barrister and company director. Brentwood councillor 1998-2009, Leader of Brentwood council 2004-2009. Contested Sherwood 2001. First elected as MP for Great Yarmouth in 2010. Under-secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2012-2015. Minister of State for Housing since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18571 (43%)
Lab: 14295 (33%)
LDem: 6188 (14%)
UKIP: 2066 (5%)
Oth: 1937 (4%)
MAJ: 4276 (10%)
2005
Con: 15795 (38%)
Lab: 18850 (46%)
LDem: 4585 (11%)
UKIP: 1759 (4%)
Oth: 389 (1%)
MAJ: 3055 (7%)
2001
Con: 15780 (39%)
Lab: 20344 (50%)
LDem: 3392 (8%)
UKIP: 850 (2%)
MAJ: 4564 (11%)
1997
Con: 17416 (36%)
Lab: 26084 (53%)
LDem: 5381 (11%)
MAJ: 8668 (18%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BRANDON LEWIS (Conservative) See above.
LARA NORRIS (Labour) Educated at Hertfordshire University. Office manager and former Labour party organiser.
JAMES JOYCE (Liberal Democrat) Postmaster. Norfolk councillor since 2005, Broadland councillor. Contested Norfolk police commissioner election 2012.
ALAN GREY (UKIP) Musical instrument retailler. Norfolk councillor since 2013.
HARRY WEBB (Green) Educated at Great Yarmouth High School. Works in a residential care home.
SAMUEL TOWNLEY (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 105 Responses on “Great Yarmouth”
  1. UKIP won 10 of the 39 seats but that was 10 of the 13 wards up election this year.

  2. And a close 2nd in the remaining 3 wards -they’re strong in all parts of this extremely mixed borough!

  3. This almost looks like a three way Tory/UKIP/Labour marginal now.

  4. According to the Fabian Soc, UKIP did very well at the 2014 locals here:

    UKIP 41%
    Lab 29%
    Con 27%

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/

  5. Looks a very difficult labour win. Surely either ukip win or their vote collapses it is likely to favour the tories more than labour.

  6. I wouldn’t be too sure about the latter – ie favouring Tories more if UKIP collapse, they have won equal seats from Labour and Tories and are very strong in the town itself where Labour are strongest.

    Still, as you say it looks a difficult Lab win.

  7. I suspect that in seats such as Yarmouth UKIP benefit at Labour’s expense in a similar way that the SNP wins many Labour votes for the Holyrood elections. Most of the latter appear to return to Labour at Westminster elections. Many of the UKIP voters here are likely to do the same. Personally I will be surprised if UKIP manage 10% here at the general election.

  8. I think Brandon Lewis will be alright here- a swing of 5% is probably too much to ask of Labour and I’m not convinced that a respectable UKIP performance would actually help Labour in a seat like this one.

  9. I think this will be a tory hold, but it has to be one of UKIP’s top targets…

  10. This is where Farage should stand IMHO. I know they start from a low base, but the demographics of Yarmouth are very promising for UKIP.

  11. New Ashcroft polling:

    Con 33%
    UKIP 31%
    Lab 28%
    LD 3%

    Previous Ashcroft figures were Lab 34%, Con 32%, UKIP 28%, LD 5%.

  12. It looks like this seat could go to any of the 3 then, though I think that the Tories and UKIP both have a better chance than Labour. In terms of real votes I would say that UKIP has the upper hand as it has demonstrated itself to be the leader by some margin here in the last 2 rounds of local elections.

    I personally edge towards a UKIP gain here but I wouldn’t write off the Conservatives’ chances. Lewis should benefit from some sort of incumbency effect here too, remember. The risk to the Tories (and to Labour) though here is that they will focus on attacking Labour and ignore UKIP during the campaign. This will allow UKIP sneak through the middle and take the seat by a few percent. I personally think that this is what will happen. Saying stuff like, “vote UKIP, get Labour” doesn’t really work to draw back UKIP voters as far as I am concerned. Logically, Tory to UKIP defectors are fed up with the Conservatives, therefore I don’t think many of them would really mind if the Conservatives did lose next year.

  13. Greens on 4% in the Ashcroft poll, ahead of the LDs on 3%.

  14. Or the chance to replace an unsuitable candidate with an improved model

  15. Maybe so but it still doesn’t look particularly good. It also incurs costs in getting new/updated leaflets and posters printed, and will confuse voters already aware of the previous candidate’s name.

  16. Reports in the local paper that the Conservatives here are in chaos after several councillors including an 80 year old were deselected for next year’s borough council elections. Threats to stand as independents have been made.

  17. prediction for 2015-

    Con- 34%
    Lab- 31%
    UKIP- 24%
    Lib- 7%
    Green- 3%
    BNP- 1%

    Okay so this is tricky to call, this prediction is hugely based off the ashcroft polls although they are infamously on the inaccurate side. It looks like UKIP will seriously rise here, causing all the other parties , barring the greens to decline. The lib dems have polled as little as 3% here but I should think their vote picks up , however is still slashed on 2010.

    Most of all, I reject claims that this is a probable labour gain.

  18. Well that isn’t a million miles from how I would see this seat going. Your emphatic last sentence however isn’t fully borne out by your actual prediction. This is a fairly long shot for Labour, but it’s certainly not impossible at this stage. If Labour gain any sort of lead in the popular vote they will probably take this seat, but not otherwise.

  19. I’d modify that actually – probably Labour need to be at least 2% ahead to be likely to win here. So the odds are on them not making it, albeit narrowly.

  20. Congratulations to Harry Webb who has been selected as Green candidate.

  21. I understand that Labour are in as much disarray as the Tories, because they can’t get themselves together organisationally. Some of them believe that after a promising start their PPC has gone off the boil and is too involved with obscure community campaigns instead of the hard politics they think she should be involved with. I also hear from Labour activists that privately many of them think Ukip can win this because they’re not winning back Labour voters lost in May. In a BBC Look East item last week the reporter said everybody she vox popped in Great Yarmouth market told her they intended to vote Ukip at the general election. That’s an incredible admission from the BBC. May could easily see a Ukip MP and council in Yarmouth.

  22. There’s just been a report on BBC News about Great Yarmouth, with the emphasis on immigration and the rise of UKIP, and how Labour are looking to counter it.

  23. Andy JS – I’ve just got your joke from November 7th, and if it’s not a joke it should be.

  24. LOL and it’s Christmastime as well…

  25. I’m with the Oracle on this one and after looking at ASHCROFT here, demographics, other forecasts, incumbency, average opponents vs Lewis.. ..I am expecting a CON hold (contradicting Ladbrokes 7/4 CON)

    The Green candidate has to have some luck now to save his deposit.

  26. Telephone poll in the constituency tonight on behalf of Labour. Standard 3 questions, and did sound like a volunteer, rather than a professional.

    I still don’t fancy their chances here though. I think UKIP will take as many Labour votes as Tory., making this a Con hold.

  27. Brandon Lewis accused of using tax payer funding for political work –

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/brandon_lewis_says_labour_accusations_of_taxpayer_funding_for_political_work_are_completely_false_1_3986627

    This could shift a few Conservative votes to UKIP.

  28. Local press is reporting 6 nominations at close today.

    GREY, Alan (U)

    JOYCE, James (LD)

    LEWIS, Brandon (C)

    NORRIS, Lara (L)

    TOWNLEY, Samuel (Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol)

    WEBB, Harry (G)

  29. Phone poll from Populous today, for the constituency, so hopefully we will get a new poll published shortly.

  30. Report in local press gives an update on numbers registered to vote in Great Yarmouth. It reads –

    “As of April 1, there were 55,795 electors registered for the local election and 68,524 registered for the parliamentary election.”

    Can anyone explain how there can be more for the Parliamentary election than local election?

    I know that certain EU nationals can vote in locals but not Parliamentary, so locals figure should be higher?

    Surely there is no mechanism to opt out registration for one but not the other. Could it be that the reported figures have been transposed?

    It is a massive difference ( around 18%).

    Full report here –

    http://www.greatyarmouthmercury.co.uk/news/postal_votes_to_be_sent_out_across_great_yarmouth_tomorrow_1_4044592

  31. New Ashcroft poll has two point Tory lead:

    Con 36
    Lab 34
    UKIP 24
    LD 2
    Grn 4
    Oth 1

  32. According to political betting, mike smithson is reporting that a 2 point lead means great yarmouth is safe.

    if a 2pt lead is safe, then no wonder betting odds are regularly wrong.

  33. I think UKIP will take control of Yarmouth council in 2015 due to labour might have to do deal with SNP.

  34. Close here, I will go with CON hold by a touch under 750. If CON win by much over 1500 would say that is indicator of a good night for them, if LAB win they will be having a stormer.

  35. Conservative Hold. 2,000 maj. UKIP 2nd.

  36. This was yet another terrible result for Labour in an English marginal and for me was a seat clearly symptomatic of them flat-out struggling to get back their old WWC voters because of it being very fertile territory for UKIP, who must have had a big impact on the Labour showing here.

  37. UKIP tide going out in coastal regions? This tops a string of losses of council seats for UKIP since the election…

    Norfolk CC, Gorleston St Andrew- 16th July 2015

    Conservative 876 [42.7%; +15.3%}
    Labour 773 [37.7%; +1.8%]
    UKIP 285 [13.9%; -22.8%]
    LD Tony Harris 66 [3.2%; +3.2%]
    Green 51 [2.5%; +2.5%]
    Majority: 103
    Conservative gain from UKIP
    Percentage change from 2013

  38. UKIP have gained four seats on GYBC, all from Labour but all with majorities of less than 80 votes. This puts UKIP into second largest party on the council.

    Is this the Referendum effect?

  39. I doubt it.

    Despite some success here, it’s not been as good a night as many had expected for UKIP in the English Council Elections.

    In fact, their projected national Vote Share was 12%, so slightly down on the 13% they achieved in last year’s General Election.

  40. Is that still above the Lib Dems?

  41. Lib dems don’t do Great Yarmouth. They only had candidates in two out of thirteen wards yesterday.

  42. I meant nationally

  43. Projected national vote shares:

    Lab 31% (+2)
    Con 30% (-5)
    LibDem 15% (+4)
    UKIP12% (-1)
    Others 12% (-)

    So yes, the LibDems have overtaken UKIP for 3rd place. (Bracketed figures are changes from 2015GE)

  44. Thank you. Surely it’s a bigger increase than 4% for the Lib Dems, IIRC they were on 7-8% at the GE.

  45. I believe the changes are based on the PNV for last year’s local elections, rather than the general election. The Lib Dems always do better at the locals, even when a GE is held on the same day.

  46. After talk of a UKIP split nationally. Great Yarmouth has jumped the gun. Two former UKIP councillors have started a new party –

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/new_political_party_for_great_yarmouth_launches_its_website_1_4938082

    Strange that they chose a party name which has been associated with Labour for many years.

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