Great Grimsby

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8874 (26.3%)
Labour: 13414 (39.8%)
Lib Dem: 1680 (5%)
Green: 783 (2.3%)
UKIP: 8417 (25%)
TUSC: 173 (0.5%)
Independent: 390 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4540 (13.5%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of the North East Lincolnshire council area.

Main population centres: Grimsby.

Profile: Grimsby is a major North Sea port and industrial centre at the mouth of the Humber estuary. It is a major port for both fish - having a long association with the fishing industry - and other goods. Frozen food is a major industry in the town, along with pharmaceuticals and chemicals.

Politics: Great Grimsby has been Labour since 1945, though only narrowly held in the 1977 by-election that followed Tony Crosland`s death. In 2015 it was seen as a prime UKIP target, their best chance of taking a seat from Labour, but in the event they managed only third place behind the Conservatives.


Current MP
MELANIE ONN (Labour) Born Grimsby. Educated at Healing Comprehensive. Former trade union officer. First elected as MP for Great Grimsby in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10063 (31%)
Lab: 10777 (33%)
LDem: 7388 (22%)
UKIP: 2043 (6%)
Oth: 2683 (8%)
MAJ: 714 (2%)
2005
Con: 7858 (24%)
Lab: 15512 (47%)
LDem: 6356 (19%)
BNP: 1338 (4%)
Oth: 1900 (6%)
MAJ: 7654 (23%)
2001
Con: 7634 (23%)
Lab: 19118 (58%)
LDem: 6265 (19%)
MAJ: 11484 (35%)
1997
Con: 9521 (22%)
Lab: 25765 (60%)
LDem: 7810 (18%)
MAJ: 16244 (38%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARC JONES (Conservative) Lincolnshire councillor since 2013, former Lincoln councillor.
MELANIE ONN (Labour) Born Grimsby. Educated at Healing Comprehensive. Trade union officer.
STEVE BEASANT (Liberal Democrat) Born Grimsby. Educated at Hull University. Former maintenance fitter. North East Lincolnshire councillor since 2003, former Grimsby councillor 1986-1992 for the Labour party.
VICTORIA AYLING (UKIP) Barrister, runs music and property businesses.. Former Surrey councillor, East Lindsay councillor. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013. Contested Great Grimsby 2010 for the Conservative party.
VICKY DUNN (Green) Project director. Contested West Midlands 2009 European election, Yorkshire and Humber 2014 European election.
GARY CALDER (Independent) Born Canada. Educated at Grimsby Technical Secondary and Hull University. Operations manager.
VAL O`FLYNN (TUSC) Born Cleethorpes.
Links
Comments - 286 Responses on “Great Grimsby”
  1. Some of the LD votes are highly likely to move to the Conservatives aswell as to Labour (nationally) – it will obviously vary between the type of seat.

  2. Austin Mitchell is standing down http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH548Gf9d74

  3. A sensible decision. His successor will retain the seat easily in 2015 – that might not have been the case had he held on till 2020.

  4. So he made it official on a Youtube video before it was confirmed by the local Grimsby press? Interesting.

    Wise move given his age. Just hope they come up with a good candidate.

  5. He was set to announce it at the CLP meeting tonight. He tweeted the video less than one hour ago. Possibly tweeting from the meeting.

  6. I remember he wrote a book in 1983 entitled ‘Four Years in the Death of the Labour Party’. This was a highly entertaining but rage filled polemic against the Bennite move to shift the party leftwards which reached its peak in about 1981 and which was responsible for keeping Thatcher and co. in power for so long. Mitchell gave no quarter to either Benn and his associates or the ‘men overboard’ (as he puts it) of the SDP. However, I think he has somewhat passed his sell-by date now, so I’m glad he’s retiring.

  7. “Just hope they come up with a good candidate.”

    Melanie Onn (Unision regional organizer , former Labour staffer and former EU candidate) is a name touted

  8. …or at least that’s the Onn message.

  9. Parachuted in from head office.. if the Guardian is correct.. bit risky for a marginal not going with a local.. then again is it really marginal..?

  10. Yes, I’d say so. There have been some desperately close contents here both recently and in the 1980s. Volatile might be a better description than marginal, as I would accept that the seat has looked far from marginal for several elections prior to 2010.

  11. Ian Cawsey is still quite active and could be a right sort of fit for Grimsby. Hope he gives it a go

  12. Melanie Onn wouldn’t be a parachute – she comes from Grimsby.

    I can’t see any problem with someone seeking selection for a seat in their home town, and being a trade union organiser is obviously something a prospective Labour MP might do career wise

  13. So anyone who works in a fish factory wouldn’t be the right sort of person for Labour then?

  14. I’m also pretty sure that somebody who is a regional organiser is, by definition, not “parachuted in from head office”.

  15. An article from the Grimsby Telegraph which also covers potential Labour candidates for the seat.

    http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Grimsby-Nigel-Farage-s-best-chance-UKIP-says-MP/story-21027978-detail/story.html

  16. Potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.

  17. I think that’s quite unlikely to happen. He’s standing down in eleven months anyway, they’ll give him a slap on the wrist.

  18. They won’t be able to force him to stand down; I was thinking more of him resigning in order to annoy the party.

  19. Nah. He’s acted a git in his time, but he’s been Labour for so long I don’t think this would make him deliberately derail the party.

  20. I agree, unless they keep getting at him for making these comments.

  21. What a pathetic storm in a teacup

  22. If I were Austin I’d resign in a fit of pique. it would be amusing to see Ed Miliband getting his hands dirty in the Grimsby fish factories (assuming they haven’t all closed down).

  23. NE Lincs goes to NOC according to the BBC News site. Very bad result for Labour, as UKIP took seats off them and I think one from the Tories.

  24. North East Lincolnshire, popular votes:

    UKIP 12,632 (35.52%)
    Lab 9,168 (25.78%)
    Con 8,736 (24.57%)
    LD 2,767 (7.78%)
    Ind 1,133 (3.18%)
    Green 631 1.77%
    TUSC 492 (1.38%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    UKIP +26.45%
    Lab -2.33%
    Con -7.60%
    LD -18.82%
    Ind +2.74%
    Green +1.77%
    TUSC +1.38%

  25. Great Grimsby constituency:

    UKIP 6,104
    Lab 4,716
    Con 2,963
    LD 2,418
    Ind 619
    Green 433
    TUSC 213

  26. At the moment she’s the only selected candidate. I expect UKIP would like that to remain the case for as long as possible.

  27. Labour selection is scheduled for July 26

  28. “A senior Labour Party activist has said the party should not use an all women shortlist to select their candidate in Grimsby, a key UKIP target seat, because of a “febrile” political atmosphere following major gains by Nigel Farage’s party.

    Ray Sutton, who is chairman of the local party group, said that Labour should not be “restricted” during what he described as a “critical time in local politics”.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/29/Grimsby-Labour-Chairman-Expresses-Concern-About-All-Women-Shortlist

  29. Interesting intervention. Wonder how the NEC will respond if at all. This is a seat in which Labour can’t take their eyes off UKIP.

  30. The CLP has already set the timetable for the selection. So they are going forward with the AWS

  31. That’s for Neil and Andy….Katie Ghose has applied for Labour selection.

    There are 4 applications. Ghose, Melanie Onn, NE Lincolnshire Cllr Ros James. The 4th may be Shona McIsaac given pre process articles in the local press

  32. Four talented women there.

  33. If Melanie Onn got selected, Guido et al would have a field day.

    Apparently Ros James defected from the Lib Dems a few years ago.

    It seems Katie Ghose never knows when to quit. Seriously doubt she’ll be selected, but in the extremely unlikely chance the local UKIP branch would be rubbing their hands with glee.

  34. This might almost be getting towards a four-way marginal at the next election, though I imagine the Lib Dem collapse here will be extremely heavy so three way seems more likely.

  35. The opinion of Guido Fawkes has zero impact upon electoral outcomes in Great Grimsby.

  36. Victoria Ayling must be hoping either Katie Ghose or Shona McIsaac is selected.

  37. Katie Ghose appears to be picking up support for the Labour nomination. She has a page of endorsers here:

    http://www.katieghose.org.uk/what-people-say/

  38. One of those endorsers claims:

    “Katie is the heavyweight candidate we need to see off UKIP and win back disgruntled Labour supporters.”

    Unbelievable. It’s bland careerists and wannabe parachutes like her that are further pushing voters to UKIP. As for heavyweight, excuse me while I laugh myself into a coma.

    If those endorsements are coming from Grimsby CLP members it makes you wonder if there is a major wedge between them and working class non-Labour members in the town. Those who have traditionally voted Labour but aren’t actively involved in party campaigning and the like.

    Ghose should’ve given a go to a safe London seat where the sitting MP was standing down. It’s metro and hip enough to accommodate her.

  39. Seems like Melanie Onn is their best prospect. Heck even Shona McIsaac would be better than Katie.

  40. McIsaac seemed ok? At least she is local and not a Metropolitan councillor type. She lost last time but because of the overall trends i suspect.

  41. Katie Ghose would be a disaster. It would be an horrific selection and would put this seat as the most likely UKIP gain in the country.

  42. I agree that this sort of london based tut tutting at some hard pressed people who are voting UKIP is more likely to increase or harden their support.

  43. Could UKIP come second here?

  44. Yes, it is not inconceivable.

  45. It could be a close three-way marginal here between Labour, UKIP and the Conservatives.

  46. Despite their local and european election showing the odds must be stacked against a UKIP gain in Grimsby.

    For starters, the sizeable Lib Dem vote is certain to collapse with most of it going to Labour.

    I think the probable outcome is a Labour win with about 40%, Tories and UKIP each around 20% and the Lib Dems about 10%.

  47. If UKIP are anywhere near it would almost certainly mean that the Tories have lost shitloads of votes to them – even here I don’t see Labour losing more votes to UKIP than the Tories. This seat could still be marginal but not a 3-way marginal. As the former Tory candidate Ayling will surely do much better amongst 2010 Tory voters than Labour ones.

  48. UKIP would have to do very well to even get close, but I think Labour will have to make sure they hold this comfortably enough without having to worry about any threat from UKIP.

  49. Labour shortlist announced:

    Shona McIsaac – former Cleethorpes MP
    Melanie Onn – Unison regional organiser for Yorkshire and Humberside
    Katie Ghose – Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society
    Ros James – North East Lincolnshire Councillor

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