Great Grimsby

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8874 (26.3%)
Labour: 13414 (39.8%)
Lib Dem: 1680 (5%)
Green: 783 (2.3%)
UKIP: 8417 (25%)
TUSC: 173 (0.5%)
Independent: 390 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4540 (13.5%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of the North East Lincolnshire council area.

Main population centres: Grimsby.

Profile: Grimsby is a major North Sea port and industrial centre at the mouth of the Humber estuary. It is a major port for both fish - having a long association with the fishing industry - and other goods. Frozen food is a major industry in the town, along with pharmaceuticals and chemicals.

Politics: Great Grimsby has been Labour since 1945, though only narrowly held in the 1977 by-election that followed Tony Crosland`s death. In 2015 it was seen as a prime UKIP target, their best chance of taking a seat from Labour, but in the event they managed only third place behind the Conservatives.


Current MP
MELANIE ONN (Labour) Born Grimsby. Educated at Healing Comprehensive. Former trade union officer. First elected as MP for Great Grimsby in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10063 (31%)
Lab: 10777 (33%)
LDem: 7388 (22%)
UKIP: 2043 (6%)
Oth: 2683 (8%)
MAJ: 714 (2%)
2005
Con: 7858 (24%)
Lab: 15512 (47%)
LDem: 6356 (19%)
BNP: 1338 (4%)
Oth: 1900 (6%)
MAJ: 7654 (23%)
2001
Con: 7634 (23%)
Lab: 19118 (58%)
LDem: 6265 (19%)
MAJ: 11484 (35%)
1997
Con: 9521 (22%)
Lab: 25765 (60%)
LDem: 7810 (18%)
MAJ: 16244 (38%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARC JONES (Conservative) Lincolnshire councillor since 2013, former Lincoln councillor.
MELANIE ONN (Labour) Born Grimsby. Educated at Healing Comprehensive. Trade union officer.
STEVE BEASANT (Liberal Democrat) Born Grimsby. Educated at Hull University. Former maintenance fitter. North East Lincolnshire councillor since 2003, former Grimsby councillor 1986-1992 for the Labour party.
VICTORIA AYLING (UKIP) Barrister, runs music and property businesses.. Former Surrey councillor, East Lindsay councillor. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013. Contested Great Grimsby 2010 for the Conservative party.
VICKY DUNN (Green) Project director. Contested West Midlands 2009 European election, Yorkshire and Humber 2014 European election.
GARY CALDER (Independent) Born Canada. Educated at Grimsby Technical Secondary and Hull University. Operations manager.
VAL O`FLYNN (TUSC) Born Cleethorpes.
Links
Comments - 286 Responses on “Great Grimsby”
  1. Saying UKIP is ineffective at campaigning is not true in Grimsby. They have a superb machine that won them 1 councillor in 2012 and a further 7 in 2014. Cllr Ron Shepherd is the generator behind much of this success. He is a very capable campaigner and has won them 100s of votes in Scartho. I believe UKIP may fall short on May 7th in the Grimsby seat but they may pick up many more councillors on NELC. That would make them serious players in the town hall if they aren’t already.

  2. http://labourlist.org/2015/03/tories-and-ukip-under-fire-for-target-seat-candidates-with-far-right-links/

    I don’t know whether this will go down well or badly with the average man on the street in Grimsby, but I suppose the calculation from Labour is that all those that approve of this kind of thing are already going to vote UKIP and it’ll scare the bejeesus out of anyone considering voting Green and the residual Lib Dems.

  3. This is one of the few wide open constituencies with the two factors being the influence of UKIP and the departure of Austin Mitchell

  4. BBCR5 in GG all day. Lots of sceptical EU comments from locals.

    Victoria Ayling (imo) won the mini debate on BBCR5 just now.

    She was concise, pithy and had a bit of a spark about her. Onn sounded a little tired and really just came out with well trodden party lines. Have UKIP got a bit of a star here?

    Not Just for these reasons I’m wondering now about this seat – UKIP are close in the betting…5/4 but EF say Labour will win by 17% margin (with CON 2nd!).

    ASHCROFT was 35% LAB…34% UKIP.

  5. Victoria Ayling having a bit of a meltdown on the regional Sunday Politics (Yorks and Lincs).

  6. Yes, on the Daily Politics programme, Ayling comes across as shrill and unreliable – and I think the only non-local candidate among ‘the main four’. See 45min. in or so: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05qhyr9/sunday-politics-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire-19042015

    Surely this monomaniacal anti-EU /anti-wind power stuff won’t work in a suit where renewable energy forms about the only likely source of all these ‘jobs’ people are wanting in Grimsby.

  7. I think we’ll see UKIP second here, but a comfortable Labour hold nonetheless.

    Labour: 36%
    UKIP: 27%
    Conservative: 24%
    Liberal Democrat: 8%
    Others: 5%

  8. I agree with Clive’s prediction.

  9. I have a hard time seeing UKIP win this at a GE but Ashcroft does have them surprisingly close. Going from 6% to 30+% would be quite an achievement regardless, and I’m not sure what that would mean for the Tories here in the long term. A lot can happen in five years though, so they might bounce back very easily. Assuming the sight of Eddie Izzard with higher heels than Labour’s young candidate doesn’t drive them over to UKIP en masse and make them look even less competitive for 2020.

  10. New Ashcroft poll has 17% Labour lead.

    Lab 42%
    UKIP 25%
    Con 24%
    LD 5%
    Grn 2%
    Oth 2%

    Totally split opposition.

  11. Looks like UKIP’s northern challenge against Labour in some seats are coming to a halt. Both them and the Conservatives are squeezing them hard to get back their core vote.

  12. This and the other 3 Ashcroft polls of UKIP targets (Cannock, Great Yarmouth and Castle Point) taken together confirm that a UKIP breakthrough is now very improbable.

    It will be interesting to see if this info leads to a more general collapse in the UKIP polling figures.

  13. StephenPt – 36% in Castle Point does not equal very improbable at all. It makes it too close to call. Just look at the odds in Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet S, Boston etc.

  14. Lancs Observer.

    I said a breakthrough was improbable. By that I meant a viable number of seats to give the party some influence in Westminster.

    UKIP may win the 5 you mention (though with a 5% lead in the Ashcroft poll at Castle Point, the Conservative advantage is almost beyond the margin of error). Realistically these polls taken in the round suggest that – if lucky – UKIP are unlikely to do more than retain Clacton and add Thanet South and Thurrock.

  15. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority. Tories 2nd.

  16. Full Result:

    Lab 13,414 39.8%
    Con 8,874 26.3%
    UKIP 8,417 25.0%
    LDem 1,680 5.0%
    Green 783 2.3%
    Ind 563 1.7%

    Majority 4,540 : Swing 5.6%

    Labour increases its share of the vote by 7.1% and UKIP fall again.

  17. Ashcroft predicted this one very well, although Tories and UKIP switch positions. Totally split opposition and a fairly comfortable hold for Labour. This and Rotherham were so heavily targeted by UKIP and they didn’t end up doing much. Victoria Ayling was a slightly scary person going by her TV appearances.

  18. An indication of how much turnout has collapsed in seats like this over the years is that Labour’s winning total of 13,414 votes in 2015 was less than the number of votes polled by the party coming third in 1983 when the SDP received 14,552 votes.

    I don’t think there have been any significant boundary changes since 1983. Turnout in 1983 was 73.8%, in 2015 it was 57.7%. Obviously the electorate has declined since then as well.

  19. Recriminations flying thick and fast in UKIP in these parts…

    http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Cleethorpes-councillor-resigns-self-destructing/story-27809361-detail/story.html

    including slagging off the former PPC

  20. UKIP does seem to be having a number of instances of trouble with elected councillors. They need to get their act together sharpish if they are to be advancing rather than retreating in 2020.

  21. Andy JS – wow, that is a low turnout for such a 3 way marginal seat.

  22. The falling electorate means that this constituency will be significantly changed at the next boundary changes. Can people with local knowledge tell us how and with what likely effect? I suspect the Conservatives might be the main beneficiaries.

  23. Well if the boundary commissions proposals from the aborted review are anything to go by Great Grimsby will be split in half into a Grimsby South and Cleethorpes and a Grimsby North and Barton. I’m not sure why they haven’t done this before actually the current incarnation of the Cleethorpes seat does seem decidedly odd stretching around Grimsby to areas a fair distance from Cleethorpes town.

    According to electoral calculus the Tories would have won both in 2010 North by around 11% and South by around 5%. I assume that South would be notionally Labour in 2015 though. Though if these boundaries were in place in 2010 and the Tories had won Grimsby South and Cleethorpes that year they may well have held it this year if they had an incumbent which would have stopped the UKIP insurgence at least to some degree.

  24. Grimsby is quite a distinct place compared with the surrounding area so I’d imagine there’ll be quite a lot of local objection to those proposals.

    Cleethorpes itself must surely be quite good for Labour and probably UKIP too….if Cleethorpes were paired with the more Labour bits of Grimsby it would probably be a fairly secure Labour seat with a strong UKIP presence.

  25. A Labour councillor here has been caught at a Socalist Party meeting calling for Melanie Onn to be expelled from the Labour Party after she resigned as Shadow deputy Leader of the House and backed calls for Jeremy Corbyn to resign.

  26. Only in 2010 this was very close between Labour and Cons. I think it remains a good chance of a Con gain in future, though Melanie Onn’s 2016 result – improving 7% on Austin Mitchell in 2010 – was quite good (perhaps a mix of picking up LDs and Tories who voted tactically due to all the hype about UKIP in this seat).

  27. This looks like a nohoper for Labour. Decent majority on paper but if UKIP collapse towards the Tories, as seems to be happening nationwide, then Labour are toast.

  28. I Think this could be a seat to watch. Onn hasn’t really made much of her tenure. UKIP appear to have put up Mike Hookem (from Hull, not a great choice given regional rivalry). Depending on the Tory candidate, they have a good chance given prevailing conditions and 2015’s results of combined UKIP Tory vote beating Onn. I think UKIP could collapse here and give a win to the Tories (again depending on candidate selection). My gut says Grimsby is more likely to see a change than the news articles which point to Scunthorpe.

  29. This probably answers whether the Tories are taking this seat/Area seriously: they have selected Jo Gideon who lives in Kent.

    She stood in Scunthorpe in 2015.

  30. The Tories, lest we forget, came within less than a thousand votes here in 2010. It really ought to be a target, and the current Labour majority is deceptive, as there will have been some natural Tories who backed Labour in 2015 to keep out the (somewhat overstated) UKIP threat.

  31. True, although Austin Mitchell probably contributed to that – as well as then-Tory Ayling who is now the UKIP PPC.

  32. TCTC, probably Cons favourites.

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