Grantham & Stamford

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28399 (52.8%)
Labour: 9070 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 3263 (6.1%)
Green: 1872 (3.5%)
UKIP: 9410 (17.5%)
Independent: 1017 (1.9%)
Others: 724 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 18989 (35.3%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire.. Includes most of the South Kesteven council area.

Main population centres: Grantham, Stamford, Bourne, Ropsley, Thurlby.

Profile: A large rural seat in southern Lincolnshire. Grantham and Stamford are at the extreme north and south of the seat, with a large swathe of agricultural countryside between them, dotted with small rural villages. The only other large settlement in the seat is the rapidly growing town of Bourne, situated at the west of the Lincolnshire Fens. Food processing and agriculture are the major industries.

Politics: Politically Grantham is probably most widely associated with its most famous daughter, Margaret Thatcher, who grew up in the town and whose father Alfred owned a grocer`s shop in the town and served as mayor in 1945/6. However, Grantham itself is probably the most Labour part of the seat. The rural part of the seat and the historical town of Stamford outweigh any Labour votes in Grantham and it is normally a safely Conservative seat. The history of Conservative representation was briefly interrupted between 2007 and 2010 when the sitting Conservative MP, Quentin Davies, defected to the Labour party.


Current MP
NICHOLAS BOLES (Conservative) Born 1965. Educated at Winchester and Oxford University. Former chairman of a decorating supplies company, former director of Policy Exchange. Westminster councillor 1998-2002. Contested Hove 2005. First elected as MP for Grantham and Stamford in 2010. Under-secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2012-2014. Minister of State for skills and enterprise since 2014.
Past Results
2010
Con: 26552 (50%)
Lab: 9503 (18%)
LDem: 11726 (22%)
BNP: 2485 (5%)
Oth: 2533 (5%)
MAJ: 14826 (28%)
2005*
Con: 22109 (47%)
Lab: 14664 (31%)
LDem: 7838 (17%)
UKIP: 1498 (3%)
Oth: 1038 (2%)
MAJ: 7445 (16%)
2001
Con: 21329 (46%)
Lab: 16811 (36%)
LDem: 6665 (14%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
MAJ: 4518 (10%)
1997
Con: 22672 (43%)
Lab: 19980 (38%)
LDem: 6612 (12%)
Oth: 985 (2%)
MAJ: 2692 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICHOLAS BOLES (Conservative) See above.
BARRIE FAIRBAIRN (Labour)
HARRISH BISNAUTHSING (Liberal Democrat) Born Mauritius. Former RAF engineer, computer hardware consultant. South Kesteven councillor since 2003. Contested Grantham and Stamford 2010.
MARIETTA KING (UKIP)
AIDAN CAMPBELL (Green)
JAN HANSEN (Lincolnshire Independents)
IAN SELBY (Independent)
Links
Comments - 122 Responses on “Grantham & Stamford”
  1. Well whatever you think of Margaret Thatcher, she was part of our lives. RIP.

  2. As of 01:00 the Tories have retained their Grantham divisions.

    GRANTHAM EAST
    Con 764 (37.2%) -3.6%
    Lab 563 (27.4%) +5.3%
    UKIP 441 (21.5%) +21.5%
    Ind 213 (10.4%) +10.4%
    LD 74 (3.6%) -8%

    GRANTHAM BARROWBY
    Con 558 (37.6%) -3.4%
    Ind 476 (32.2%) +32.2%
    Lab 442 (29.9%) +12.4%

    GRANTHAM NORTH WEST
    Con 1039 (63.4%) +11.9%
    Lab 599 (36.6%) +26.1%

  3. Further Grantham results including a Labour gain in Grantham South.

    GRANTHAM SOUTH

    Lab 840 (47.4%) +26.7%
    Con 777 (43.9%) -3.8%
    LD 154 (8.7% -22.9%

    GRANTHAM NORTH

    Con 1179 (49.2%) -0.7%
    UKIP 614 (25.6%) +25.6%
    Lab 320 (13.4%) +3.6%
    Ind 281 (11.7%) +0.2%

  4. The Tories are having some relatively good results in Grantham

  5. It was hilarious watching the Labour List tweet emphasising a Labour gain in Grantham South with the assurance that “this is not a typo”.
    Apparantly, Labour winning a seat in traditional Labour Grantham is a benchmark for success.

    The astonishing thing seems to be how well the Tories have done there in fact, relative to the rest of Lincolnshire which on the whole has been dire.

    But that Tory-UKIP coalition looks a solid prospect there now.

  6. Yes, UKIP and the Conservatives would have a comfortable majority on the council (52 from 77).

  7. Has Bourne always been in the Grantham seat?

  8. Not as I understand it, Harry. IIRC, it was in Rutland and Stamford between 1918 and 1982 and Stamford and Spalding between 1983 and 1996. I think it is fair to say that Bourne has always looked more to Stamford than it has to Grantham.

  9. Gosh,, getting desperate here…

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/19/national-liberals-conservatives-nick-boles

    they will be lucky enough to fight off the UKIP and might just end up atomising their own vote with this latest dopey idea… in any case there is some sort of far right party that already touts this name..

    Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone, Nick Boles can be founding member of this new suicide squad of Tory fringe-dwellers..!

  10. Its a terrible idea. He is however right that the Lib Dems are in their pith and marrow a soft left statist party.

    A pity as they have some exceptional individuals.

  11. ‘they will be lucky enough to fight off the UKIP and might just end up atomising their own vote with this latest dopey idea… in any case there is some sort of far right party that already touts this name..’

    More evidence of Cameroon stupidity and that my political dream is clearly playing out.

  12. ‘Its a terrible idea. He is however right that the Lib Dems are in their pith and marrow a soft left statist party.’

    That’s not true any more – the LDs are holding up OK in LD-Tory marginals and their remaining core vote is arty/intellectual/comfortable middle.

  13. And Bole’s idea harks back to the days when real Liberals were only contesting maybe a quarter of the seats so there was plenty of free-rein for pseudo-Liberals to steal a march.. in retrospect one wonders whether voters were conned by this “Tory in all but name” construct back in the period (1931-68).. Maybe Bole hasn’t read his history books but a lot of the NatLib phenomenon had to do with Lloyd-George’s niggardly attitude to something called The Fund, which was a cache of loot that he lorded over which had come from him selling peerages in 1910.. L-G kept everyone dancing to his tune long past his use-by date with this heap of cash.. so it was not really an ideological difference in the Left/Right sense but it was whether you were Liberals who subscribed to L-G’s personality cult or not..

  14. Well the tories are now effectively damned whatever they do because of UKIP and that the LDs are holding up in LD-Tory marginals so the LDs could theoretically come 4th behind UKIP in 2015 and still end up with 30-40 seats.

    Tories are effectively trapped now due to UKIP.

    The Ashcroft and Kellner marginal polling evidence is conclusive in that respect and also the Tories will be facing all over the place with the Crosby strategy which plays further into UKIP’s hands.

    If other people can’t do proper multidisciplinary thinking on here then that is their problem.

    Wish I could get paid to do Quantitative and Qualitative analysis rather than just providing it for free on here!

  15. get an Antipodean accent and you’ll be in business!

  16. “Wish I could get paid to do Quantitative and Qualitative analysis rather than just providing it for free on here!”

    Then focus on applying those skills to a more lucrative and less universally well understood sector than politics. There is a lot of money in analysing niche markets.

  17. H. Hemmelig appears to be headhunting A Brown at times :p

  18. LOL not at all. I’m trying to be helpful that’s all.

  19. Boles’ freelancing on his “new” party might end up costing him his ministry.. then he will be free to start his own party… or join the LibDems… apparently Jeremy Browne has reached out to him.. LoL..

  20. Did Boles’ performance in Hove in 2005 help at all in him getting selected here, even though he was already a rising star within the party?

  21. I think Boles is too early in advocating the Liberal Party route. Certainly after five years I would be surprised if no effort to have joint candidates i.e. A national Liberal party did not occur. I think if this is too happen it will be after the euro elections but before the general election.

    People tend to say it won’t happen but history shows us that it could well happen. I accept that some Lib Dems could never stand on a Conservative and Liberal National platform but their are others who could happily stand on it. Interestingly in some seats where a unified candidate stood they could achieve some of the safest seats with 70 or 80% of the vote!

    So Boles IMO is stating something that could well happen and it should not be laughed at as some above have done so. Another interesting factor of a Conservative and National Liberal party is it would win the 2015 election by a good margin IMO and is something Labour would very much fear happening.

  22. This is the list from Bright Blue’s website of those MPs in the grouping…

    Harriett Baldwin MP

    Gavin Barwell MP

    Bob Blackman MP

    Nicholas Boles MP

    Steve Brine MP

    Robert Buckland MP

    Glyn Davies MP

    The Rt. Hon. Stephen Dorrell MP

    Jane Ellison MP

    George Eustice MP

    Mark Garnier MP

    The Rt. Hon. Michael Gove MP

    The Rt. Hon. Damian Green MP

    Ben Gummer MP

    Robert Halfon MP

    Richard Harrington MP

    Damian Hinds MP

    George Hollingbery MP

    Margot James MP

    Dr. Phillip Lee MP

    Charlotte Leslie MP

    Jonathan Lord MP

    The Rt. Hon. Francis Maude MP

    The Rt. Hon. Theresa May MP

    Jason McCartney MP

    The Rt. Hon. Maria Miller MP

    Nicky Morgan MP

    John Penrose MP

    Claire Perry MP

    Laura Sandys MP

    Alok Sharma MP

    Rory Stewart MP

    The Rt. Hon. David Willetts MP

    The accompanying blurb goes : “Bright Blue is an independent, not-for-profit organisation which champions liberal conservatism and campaigns for the modernisation of the Conservative Party”.

  23. I think Boles is too early in advocating the Liberal Party route. Certainly after five years I would be surprised if no effort to have joint candidates i.e. A national Liberal party did not occur. I think if this is too happen it will be after the euro elections but before the general election.
    People tend to say it won’t happen but history shows us that it could well happen. I accept that some Lib Dems could never stand on a Conservative and Liberal National platform but their are others who could happily stand on it. Interestingly in some seats where a unified candidate stood they could achieve some of the safest seats with 70 or 80% of the vote!
    So Boles IMO is stating something that could well happen and it should not be laughed at as some above have done so. Another interesting factor of a Conservative and National Liberal party is it would win the 2015 election by a good margin IMO and is something Labour would very much fear happening.

  24. Sorry managed to post the same twice! Don’t know how that has happened.

  25. If it’s revealed asnything, the coalition has at least liufted the lid on how different the Lib Dems and Tories really are

    I had initially thought that with Cameron at the helm and with the Lib Dems leader considerably to the Right of his predecessors, there would be a lot of common ground between the Tory and Lib Dems, but that doesn’t seem to be the case

    The Lib Dems enabled the Tories to lead a government and all they have got in return is constant out downs, personalised insults and outspoken criticism from their supposed colleagues in the House itself

    If Cameron loses in 2015, I really do think the Tory Party will go the way of the American Republicans

  26. That’s an incredible viewpoint. I have heard far more of the liberals attacking the tories than vice versa. We go straight for labour as a rule.

  27. I don’t think the Tories will end up like the Rupublicans, if anything the Rupublicans have done to themselves on economics what the Tories did to themselves on Europe in the 1990’s. The Tories have worked through much of their problems on Europe.

    Of the three major parties in the UK the Tories are most united on matters Economic, Europe and International Relations. Labour and Lib Dems are significantly split. UKIP IMO is talked up too much, I do not think they are capable of winning a single seat in 2015. I remember back in the 1987 – 1992 parliament the Green party being talked up in the same way as UKIP and look at the bad result they got! The green party and natural law party were the jokes of 1992!

  28. “Of the three major parties in the UK the Tories are most united on matters Economic, Europe and International Relations.”

    That is utter crap. If there were a referendum tomorrow, at least half of Tory MPs would vote to leave the EU, with perhaps just under half voting to stay in. The party is split down the middle. More than 80% of Labour and Lib Dems would certainly vote to stay in. By my books that makes them much more united on the issue.

  29. If they reabsorbed the UKIP then they would have the Tea Party crowd within… the Tea Party are not a party, as many outside the US seem to believe, but a faction within the Republicans.

    Farage might have been more successful if he had worked within the Tories and subverted them… instead he went out and will wither on the vine eventually…

  30. ‘ It was hilarious watching the Labour List tweet emphasising a Labour gain in Grantham South with the assurance that “this is not a typo”.
    Apparantly, Labour winning a seat in traditional Labour Grantham is a benchmark for success. ‘

    Reminds me of the ecstasies certain Labour people were in when they won in Chipping Norton and Witney Central and the general bafflement of the commentariat about those results.

    Its yet another case of urban, especially London, based people knowing fack all about most of the country.

    While the most common misconception is how mining areas often have highly affluent Conservative voting wards they are also unaware that many middling towns in Conservative shires have deprived Labour voting wards.

    I do regret that the implosion of the Wigan Conservatives has stopped us juxtapositioning Wigan Central Con and Witney Central Lab for the bafflement of these people.

  31. I remember a few years back Alistair Campbell tweeting or blogging about Labour winning a by-election in the ‘Tory heartland’ of Hatfield South

  32. My sister lives in Grantham. It is not a particularly attractive town and has a lot in common with the gritty market towns you would find in eg. Derbyshire, and as in those kinds of places it is politically quite marginal. I would imagine the greater part of the Tory strength in this seat comes from Stamford and the rural hinterland, with Grantham itself roughly even stevens in an average year.

  33. The votes cast in the five Grantham wards this year were as follows:

    Con: 4,317
    Lab: 2,764
    UKIP: 1,055
    Ind: 970
    LD: 228

  34. Remmeber this Pete ?

    😉

    ” Labour gain Hitchin North on 13% swing!!! Wow!!! Amazing!!!
    A Labour activist once told me there was no point in campaigning in Hitchin because they would never vote Labour – that has been proved wrong then…
    May 3rd, 2013 at 6:18 pm
    CHRISTIAN
    Still in complete shock about Labour gaining a ward from the Tories in Hitchin. Does anyone know if local issues were a factor in the result? “

  35. If only Nick Boles would do the Tories a favour and join the Lib Dems. He is another deluded member from the trendy London set.

  36. Nick Boles represented West End ward on Westminster council, most of which is made up of Soho. That does explain quite a lot about his outlook on politics. Personally I dislike his approach to housebuilding and the countryside much more than his views on the relationship with the Lib Dems. If David Cameron wants to stay in power he will most likely have to do another deal with the Lib Dems, and not just have to sell it to his own party but to the Lib Dem membership as well.

  37. btw, I might mention that Nick Boles was supposedly an attendee at the 2012 Bilderberg event…. not exactly a very liberal organisation.. though Shirley Williams has apparently learnt the secret handshake…

  38. That explains a lot HH. I can understand his very liberal politics a little more now. It explains why he thinks concreting over the countryside to house more migrants is a brilliant policy.

  39. Is the liberal conservative group a one-nation type grouping or libertarian?

  40. Presumably the former or they would have left the Conservatives earlier… I guess they want to be both though..

  41. Ironically, Nick Boles’s ultra-liberal views did not help him at all in Hove. The voters clearly didn’t care what his views were, they just would not vote for a candidate with a Tory label next to their name. I’m very surprised Boles didn’t learn the lesson of that defeat.

  42. He did learn the lesson.. went for a seat where they vote Tory even if he has two heads..

    If he thinks his party idea is so great why isn’t he the first to put his hand in the fire… would Cameron really like 33 of his MPs (the number in Bright Blue) to decamp to a pseudo-Tory, pseudo-Liberal crew… could end badly if the defectors got on better with the LibDems than with their old colleagues.

  43. If the Tories were to support withdrawal from the EU – possible if Labour win in 2015 and still hold a referendum – then such a Liberal Tory breakaway party might well happen, with a right wing rump finding common ground with UKIP. But it would never happen this side of 2015.

  44. Would Labour still hold a referendum? Hard to imagine…

    What about another scenario that the Tories win in 2015 and have the referendum and it goes the way of exiting? Then would the pro-EU crowd exit? and how many MPs would that be? and would they have official blessing…?

    Remember the National Liberals survived by not being contested by official Tory candidates in their seats unless there was a death or resignation of an incumbent…

  45. If the Tories win in 2015 then Cameron will still be PM, and the party line will be to vote to stay in (especially as he will probably need Lib Dem support in at least some capacity). Therefore any breakaway will be on the right not the left.

    I wouldn’t be so sure Labour won’t hold a referendum. It would neutralise a major attack line at the election. Also from a pro-European perspective, if they get the timing right it is quite likely the people will vote yes, and they would get the chance to split the Tory party in half as well as settling the EU argument for another generation.

  46. Antiochian – its a one nation group rather than a liberal group in reality.

    They use phrases like “social justice” and “progressive tradition”.

  47. @HH

    Brilliant idea.. sow dissension that would knock them out for another election…

    Are the anti-EU crowd of the Tories that hot and bothered though that they would schism off to the Right? The most they would get in votes would be whatever the UKIP gets in 2015 plus some incumbency factor… it would be Jonestown all over again… choking on the Kool Aid..

  48. Grantham Town FC are known as ‘The Gingerbreads’.

  49. Very strong UKIP showing here….

    Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North- 11 December 2014

    UKIP 400 [32.8%; +32.8%]

    Labour 268 [22%; +1%]

    Conservative 261 [21.4%; -10.2%]

    Lincolnshire Independents 199 [15.7%; -31.7%]

    LD Harrish Bisnauthsing 142 [11.2%; +11.2%]

    UKIP gain from Independent

    Majority: 132

    Percentage change since 2012

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