Gower

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15862 (37.1%)
Labour: 15835 (37%)
Lib Dem: 1552 (3.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 3051 (7.1%)
Green: 1161 (2.7%)
UKIP: 4773 (11.2%)
TUSC: 103 (0.2%)
Loony: 253 (0.6%)
Independent: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 27 (0.1%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, West Glamorgan. Part of the Swansea council area.

Main population centres: The Mumbles, Port Eynon, Pontarddulais, Clydach, Gorseinon.

Profile: Consists of the Gower peninsula, a tourist area of beaches, campsites and caravan parks, the seaside resort and residential villages of The Mumbles and the more working class and industrial, former mining and tin making towns to the north of Swansea like Pontarddulais and Gorseinon (the birthplace of former Tory leader, Michael Howard).

Politics: Long a Labour-Conservative marginal on paper, Gower remained tantalisingly out of Conservative reach even at their high tide marks of support. The Gower peninsula itself contains much Conservative support, but more industrial towns to the north of Swansea vote Labour and more than balance this out. Gower was held by the Labour party continously for a century between 1910 and 2015 before falling to the Conservatives on the tiniest of margins, the smallest majority of the 2015 election.


Current MP
BYRON DAVIES (Conservative) Born Gower. Educated at Gowerton Boys Grammar School. Former police officer. Contested Gower 2007 Welsh assembly election, member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales West since 2011. First elected as MP for Gower in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13333 (32%)
Lab: 16016 (38%)
LDem: 7947 (19%)
PC: 2760 (7%)
Oth: 1615 (4%)
MAJ: 2683 (6%)
2005*
Con: 10083 (25%)
Lab: 16786 (42%)
LDem: 7291 (18%)
PC: 3089 (8%)
Oth: 2293 (6%)
MAJ: 6703 (17%)
2001
Con: 10281 (28%)
Lab: 17676 (47%)
LDem: 4507 (12%)
PC: 3865 (10%)
Oth: 1024 (3%)
MAJ: 7395 (20%)
1997
Con: 10306 (24%)
Lab: 23313 (54%)
LDem: 5624 (13%)
PC: 2226 (5%)
Oth: 1867 (4%)
MAJ: 13007 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BYRON DAVIES (Conservative) Born Gower. Educated at Gowerton Boys Grammar School. Retired police officer. Contested Gower 2007 Welsh assembly election, member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales West since 2011.
LIZ EVANS (Labour) Born Hafod. Trade union officer, works for the Land Registry.
MIKE SHEEHAN (Liberal Democrat)
COLIN BECKETT (UKIP) Educated at Oxford Brookes University. Chiropractor and former army officer.
JULIA MARSHALL (Green)
DARREN THOMAS (Plaid)
STEVE SPARKY ROBERTS (Independent) Party organiser.
MARK EVANS (TUSC)
BARON BARNES VON CLAPTRAP (Loony) , real name David Barnes. Retired optometrist.
Links
Comments - 387 Responses on “Gower”
  1. Oh did I? I didn’t realise 😛

    Terribly sorry. I just like to post them so I have easy access to them on this site. Will refrain!!

  2. ‘Glad to see you’re all taking the comments policy with the respect and maturuty it deserves’

    Grow up FFS and don’t take yourself so seriously

    It’s a political site and by its very nature it will be partisan to a degree – and besides I was only responding to a particularly unpleasant post blaming homelessness on the homeless themselves and those who help them – an extremely partisan view if might say so

  3. Nobody wants to see your partisan arguments on this site Tim, I don’t care what the motivations are or how partisan other people are being.

    Straight out of the comments policy again:
    “If you see a comment from someone else that you think crosses over the line please do NOT respond with equally partisan rebuttals. If it is a new poster then please do welcome them, explain we don’t really do things that way round here, and point them in the direction of this policy. If it is someone who should know better, just ignore them: continuing a partisan argument is just as bad as starting it!”

    This site is for those keen about polling and elections, it’s not about partisan debate: if you want that you’ll need to look elsewhere.

  4. “Terribly sorry. I just like to post them so I have easy access to them on this site. Will refrain!!”

    If you want easy access to them put them on google drive.

  5. Tim. How about you just go and fuck yourself, especially when you take the moral high ground with ME

  6. NTY UK

    totally agree with you re. Conservative Estimate. This site has become simply become a platform for Conservative Estimate to indulge in Hamlet-style soliloquies. He must contribute at least half the posts. it’s very boring.

  7. Most of my posting is polling and punditry, but even in my autism I can see it gets a bit annoying.

    The only reason I use UKPR so much is because I struggle with talking to people at university.

  8. Tim Jones – except I was of course quoting Labour Cllrs in Liverpool and Manchester.

    Although I realise Rivers10 may regard them as ‘on the Right’ as you claimed.

  9. Tim J – I suspect you mean Pepp’s post and not mine incidentally as I certainly didn’t claim that or indeed anything – I merely cited the study in Lpool and police investigation in Manc – and didn’t even refer to charity workers.

    I don’t mind you being partisan (re the bad guys and all is woe since the Leave vote) but at least be accurate re who you are accusing in future.

  10. Conservative Estimate please do not arrevate the situation by hurling abuse at people and being incredibly ignorant.

    I’m sorry that you have autism but at the same time you are not alone in having a mental illness: I can’t help you at all in that regard but I would implore you to take everybody’s advice on board (stop spamming pages and if you can try not to patronise people/avoid being unpleasant and partisan).Nobody is forcing you to come on this site or to comment on it the way you do. I’d implore you to seek real life help if that’s what you think you need.

  11. I still cant see exactly what Tim said to Cons estimate to warrant that response, but whenever this site does become partisan it quicky escalates into hurling personal insults at one another – one good reason alone for sticking to the site’s comments policy

  12. I enjoy this site too much, but my posts will thin out until the local elections.

  13. With all do respect you’ve said that repeatedly since the end of last year: if anything you’re number of posts have increased since then.

  14. Your*

  15. I am trying haha

    I’m mainly posting more because I expect a GE this year.

  16. But I’ll give it another go

  17. @Hemming

    ”You should be very grateful that most of society isn’t as uncharitable towards others as you are otherwise your openly gay lifestyle would still be criminalised!”

    I am not uncharitable towards others I am just extremely sceptical of things which might well alleviate the problem in the short term but make the problem worse in the long term. It’s a similar story with charities that go to the developing world and say build a school or vaccinate children without training local people up or leaving behind the necessary tools for them to be able to help themselves or giving money directly to the homeless probably isn’t an overall constructive way to help. As for homosexuality it’s hardly comparable to charity as I believe you yourself have said on here it was an issue that most people never really cared all that passionately about.

    ”poor because they don’t know how to cook porridge”

    I never said it was the only reason but it would be foolish to dismiss it as a factor. Healthy, nutritious food can be cooked extremely cheaply especially as it is not advised that people eat meat every day of the week. Rising rates of obesity (particularly in children at the poorer end of society) and the prevalence of fast food which is far more expensive than home cooked suggests there is much to be said both costwise and healthwise for encouraging people to home cook.

    ”I’m afraid you often fall into the trap of pontificating on anything & everything even on things it’s obvious you know absolutely nothing about.”

    I accept I am not an expert on everything obviously but if someone writes a response to me I will try my best to reply.

    ”I do hope you never have the misfortune to fall on hard times yourself”

    Nor do I obviously but if I do I would like someone to help me in a way that would be more helpful in getting myself out of a hole rather than one that would trap me there.

    ”I don’t share much of Rivers’ politics but I’m not too mean spirited to congratulate him on his charity work”

    So do I but my overall point is that some forms of charity do more harm than good or at the very least fail to help solve the long term problem.

  18. Nobody wants to hear this crap. Take it somewhere else.

  19. ”That’s one of the most ludicrous comments I’ve ever read on here”

    I should have been clearer and included with the exception of the homeless. But the definition of poverty used by many politicians and much of the media: % of median income (which is really a test of inequality not poverty which are really two different things) and using silly metrics like not having a holiday once a year and arriving at the figure of 1/3 of the country is clearly ridiculous whichever way you look at it.

    ”If you honestly think that’s true you should visit somewhere like Brighton where homelessness has gone up almost fourfold since 2010 Just yesterday I waled past over six rough sleepers on my short 5 minute journey from the supermarket to my home”

    I don’t need to Bristol might as well be the homeless capital of Britain. I think it unwise the lay all blame at the governments door as this hugely underestimates the influence drugs play, I have seen gifts of food thrown in the bin and people often act very cagy when you offer to buy them food instead of giving them money. Going to a liberal city like Brighton, Bristol or London (incidentally I know central London moderately well and homelessness to me doesn’t look all that bad, absolutely nothing on the level of Bristol) will distort your view of how bad homelessness is nationwide though as the homeless tend to be highly concentrated in a handful of liberal, large cities leaving the rest of the country nearly entirely homeless free.

  20. ”Glad to see you’re all taking the comments policy with the respect and maturuty it deserves…”

    @NYTUK

    I do tend to agree that people (including me) should try to be less partisan. On a site about elections the line between that an policy is a bit blurred so it is quite easy to get into a full blown debate. I will try to tone the partisanship down.

  21. I echo that tbh

  22. Pepps
    Just for the sake of clarity poverty by the UK definition no longer includes things like “can hey afford a holiday” the gov scrapped that years ago. Today it is measured as follows

    Relative Poverty is less than 60% of the median UK income, median income in the UK is £22,000 so less than £13,200 with modifications based on cost of living in a given area, number of children etc. When you include relative poverty as well as abolsute poverty the govs official figures are just short of 1/3 of the population

    Then there is absolute poverty which is measured as the inability to afford the essentials of life (food, shelter, clothing etc) and again modified based on cost of living/number of dependants etc the govs official figures put the number of people living in absolute poverty in the UK at just shy of 5%

    A clear minority? Yes. A handful of people one can dismiss? Most certainly not. even if you disregard relative poverty that still leaves millions in the UK living in absolute poverty which is a shameful statistic.

  23. I do think most of it is down to initiative if I’m honest. I found a job in minutes when I went looking, ditto for my father who’d been on benefits for 7 years.

    If cutting benefits hurts a few people but overall archives its aim of hitting skivers then so be it. I’m very right wing on this particular issue and my views have been vindicated by my family’s own experience of the welfare system.

  24. wow a serious number of typos there apologies

  25. Although I do think we should spend more on the NHS so would use some money saved by extracting ourselves from the writing behemoth that is Brussels and slashing Foreign Add.

    Why should I paint my neighbour’s house when the paint on mine is peeling gargantuan flecks daily?

  26. Con Estimate
    Govs own report found cutting welfare didn’t help people find work, it actually had the opposite effect.

    You live in the SE I imagine finding a job there is much easier, try looking for work elsewhere in the country. Remember this post by Polltroll a week ago…
    “There are 231 jobs advertised in London and the South-East. There are just 108 in the rest of the country – half the number of jobs for three times the number of people”
    Hardly makes a fair comparison you living where you do does it? Personally all I’ve been able to find is min wage part time work and even that was a struggle to attain.

  27. “Why should I paint my neighbour’s house when the paint on mine is peeling gargantuan flecks daily?”

    This is what amuses me from Tories, see the (in my mind0 logical response and the response from the left would be to demand your house receive the same treatment as your neighbours (aka dragging you up)
    However Tories always have the approach of dragging everyone else down, “if I can’t have it you cant have it”
    And then they say we on the left are anti aspirational…

  28. Rivers, I find that hard to believe

    No, Rivers, my point was that we should spend less on foreign aid (it’s largely virtue-signalling on a grandiose scale) and put the needs of the UK first, for that’s the country our elites purport to govern is it not?

  29. “Rivers, I find that hard to believe”
    That cutting welfare made a negative impact on people finding work? Read for yourself
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cutting-benefits-does-not-make-people-more-likely-to-find-work-government-backed-study-finds-a7066986.html

    “No, Rivers, my point was that we should spend less on foreign aid (it’s largely virtue-signalling on a grandiose scale) and put the needs of the UK first”
    So after all the posturing on this thread the last couple of days about how poverty in the UK isn’t real we are know taking money away from people living in genuine destitution abroad (in large part due to actions taken by this country) to help the apparently not very needy here in the UK? I don’t buy it one bit, with respect the people who normally advocate slashing foreign aid are the same people who advocate slashing welfare here (yourself for example) I’d bet anything the money saved would be squandered on something unnecessary like a further round of tax cuts for the rich.

  30. From 20 years ago…

    Westminster voting intention
    CON 31% [0]
    LAB 48% [-2]
    LD 16% [+1]
    LAB lead +17 [-2]
    ICM for the Guardian
    (3-5/1)

  31. I have a sneaking suspicion that neither of you have even read the Comments Policy.

    – says won’t be partisan
    – then immediately breaks down into a partisan debate

    It’s really not that hard to differentiate polling/election results from partisan debate to be honest. Debating about how the country is run and how it should be run is really not what this site is about: and it’s abundantly clear from your discussions on taxes, foreign aid policy etc. that you are completely disregarding this in spite of my warnings. This isn’t a site about how the country should be run: it’s a site primarily concerned with objective analysis and points of discussion, that can include news events, election results, demographics etc. NOT public policy.

    Again from the Comments Policy: “This means that it is not a place for spinning, not a place for saying how much you hate party X and wish they would lose, nor it is a place for saying what party should win, or what the public should support. We are interested in what will happen, what the public actually think, not what you think they should do.”

  32. ”even if you disregard relative poverty”

    I do disregard it as it is not a measure of ‘poverty’ at all but ‘income inequality’ (which are two entirely separate things). If I was the government that would be one of the first things to get scrapped.

    ”absolute poverty in the UK at just shy of 5%”

    That is a far more believable figure. Of course this 5% should not be dismissed but it is far less of a huge issue than 1/3 as many on the left would try to have us believe. Plus the view on the left is that the reason this 5% are in poverty is all the governments fault or that they are victims of circumstances but let’s not pretend a substantial chunk of them are there because of their own bad life choices: drugs, crime, poor money management etc. Should these people not be helped, no, but people need to be very careful in apportioning blame and putting all responsibility on the government and absolving them of personal responsibility (which in my opinion is a form of dehumanising). But as I said before ‘tough love’ is almost always the best long term way to help people.

    “There are 231 jobs advertised in London and the South-East. There are just 108 in the rest of the country – half the number of jobs for three times the number of people”

    A slightly misleading statistic the sphere of influence of London and the South East stretches far beyond their respective regions. For example most of the East would fall under the London job market too as would the southern East Midlands, it’s becoming increasingly common for people to commute into London from places like Northampton.

    ”This is what amuses me from Tories, see the (in my mind0 logical response and the response from the left would be to demand your house receive the same treatment as your neighbours”

    No we demand that people in work should have a better deal than people not working, not the reverse as a left wing welfare policy would perhaps accidently cause. If I was the government I would make unemployment benefit proportional to the amount of time in employment for example someone who is made redundant after 40 years work would receive a far more generous amount from the state than someone who has never worked a day in their life and the long term unemployed would receive less than the short term etc.

    ”And then they say we on the left are anti aspirational”

    Welfare and aspiration are not at all related. The Tories cutting welfare is designed to provide an incentive for people to aspire to work as a goal, whether you think it works or not it can hardly be described as anti-aspirational. As for the left being anti aspirational, the whole left perhaps not but the Corbynite wing of it definitely, the main cash cow for increased hard left spending on public sector bureaucracies, increased welfare spending etc. will inevitably be the middle classes. What is the point aspiring to become a successful professional if the left is simply going to try to drag you down by taxing you to high heaven with income tax, wealth tax, property tax, inheritance tax, sales tax etc. Oh and they’ll probably chase off a lot of the companies that create these kind of people anyway with their remilitarise the unions, limit the working day, high corporate tax, maximum income etc. so there would be no point being aspirational in Corbynite Britain anyway.

    ”Govs own report found cutting welfare didn’t help people find work”

    There have been multiple conflicting reports it really depends which one you choose to believe as nearly all will have a partisan agenda of some sort. For example DWP figures households hit by the benefit cap were 41% more likely to find work than those not and 40% of households hit by it escaped it by moving into work. These figures do suggest increased incentive to find work.

  33. ”From 20 years ago…

    CON 31% [0]
    LAB 48% [-2]
    LD 16% [+1]
    LAB lead +17 [-2]
    ICM for the Guardian
    (3-5/1)”

    @CE

    Seems like a completely different world doesn’t it. Labour riding high, the Tories ripping themselves to shreds, Tony Blair popular…

  34. My father tells me about when he watched it in the house in Blackheath where I was born, he cheered when Portillo lost apparently…

    I’ve watched it many times and often pretend I’m presenting an election programme and talk to myself when I’m on walks, strange behaviour I know!

    I also watch 1983 and hope that that can be repeated in my lifetime.

  35. Some of those results are incredible to watch

    Crosby
    Eastwood
    Harrow West
    Hove
    Southgate
    Wirral West

    Incredible. I always try to imagine what it must’ve been like to see those results as they happened!

  36. my father appeared in the 1997 coverage when Pollard was elected but watching and rewatching I still can’t find it

  37. Pepps
    I’d like to respond but I promised NTY UK I’d stop being partisan and getting roped into these big debates falls under that category so unsurprisingly I disagree with most everything you say but I’ll have to let it slide.

    The “one” thing I would comment on is that you can’t dismiss relative poverty like its nothing, I mean try living on less than 13K, you’d either fail or endlessly struggle and be miserable and stressed.

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