Gordon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6807 (11.7%)
Labour: 3441 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 19030 (32.7%)
SNP: 27717 (47.7%)
UKIP: 1166 (2%)
MAJORITY: 8687 (14.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. First elected as MP for Gordon in 2015. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9111 (19%)
Lab: 9811 (20%)
LDem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22%)
Oth: 1451 (3%)
MAJ: 6748 (14%)
2005
Con: 7842 (18%)
Lab: 8982 (20%)
LDem: 20008 (45%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Oth: 508 (1%)
MAJ: 11026 (25%)
2001*
Con: 8049 (23%)
Lab: 4730 (14%)
LDem: 15928 (46%)
SNP: 5760 (16%)
Oth: 534 (2%)
MAJ: 7879 (23%)
1997
Con: 11002 (26%)
Lab: 4350 (10%)
LDem: 17999 (43%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Oth: 459 (1%)
MAJ: 6997 (17%)

2015 Candidates
COLIN CLARK (Conservative) Educated at Turriff Academy and Heriot-Watt University. Farmer.
BRADEN DAVY (Labour) Born Bishop Auckland. Educated at Hirst High School and Durham University. Parliamentary assistant and former McDonalds manager.
CHRISTINE JARDINE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Braidfield High School and Glasgow university. Journalist. Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 by-election and Scotland region 2014 European election.
EMILY SANTOS (UKIP) Nurse.
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former Economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
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Comments - 720 Responses on “Gordon”
  1. Did anybody see Alex Salmonds defiant speech following the declaration? He inferred that he would be making some kind of comeback but elections to the Scottish Parliament are still nearly 4 years away. He is in the political unless he wins a Westminster / Holyrood by election or there is another snap general election.

  2. Who would have thought the day would come to see Alex Salmond losing his seat!

  3. “Who would have thought the day would come to see Alex Salmond losing his seat!”

    @ WOOF – well if you look just a bit upthread you’ll notice that myself and plopwellian tory believed that this would be a Conservative gain.

  4. Hard to gauge how much trouble the SNP is in.
    I think the Tories need to capitalise on their Scotland results, given the narrative of disappointment overall.
    I hope another tranche of SNP seats now go down next time.
    Whatever happens, if Indy Ref 2 is killed off, that’s a good thing in my view.
    Does anyone know why the swing was so high here?

  5. Dalek: “Yes….SNP loses in Banff & Buchan, Angus and Aberdeen North…that is a crazy prediction.”

    Turns out they lost two out of the three!

    I wonder how big a factor the Scottish Tories’ stance on the CFP was in coastal areas of Aberdeenshire

  6. It was Aberdeen North that I regarded as crazy…the other two were only outlandish.

    It would be interesting to see what impact a Jo Swinson leadership would have on the recent Scottish Conservative success who seem to have hoovered up much of the Scottish Lib Dem vote. A recovering Lib Dem vote could reduce the Conservatives vote by far more than the SNP due to the Lib Dems ultra unionist stance.

  7. Perhaps Alex Salmond will return as party leader of the SNP if Nicola Sturgeon resigns following the next Scottish Parliamentary elections.

    Frankly speaking the party are heading on a collison course for disaster. At the very least it is virtually guaranteed that the pro-independence lobby will lose their majority at Holyrood to be surpassed by the unionists. If the next Holyrood election is anything like the general election in Scotland then Nicola Sturgeon will probably be forced out.

    Where can the party go from here?

    Stick to their guns and inevitably lose their mandate for a second referendum at the next Scottish Parliamentary elections (bad)? Make an embarassing climb-down on a second referendum on Scottish independence (also bad)? Or try to force one through illegially without the support of the UK Parliament (worse)?

    Can anyone see a way out for them?

  8. They’ll have to fudge the issue. Indyref2 wil be downgraded from a pledge to an “aspiration”. Their 2021 Holyrood campaign will major on their government record – its pitch will have to be “you may like Labour is promising, but we’re offering a similar platform, and evidence that we can deliver it.”

    I suspect the electorate will have tired of the SNP and they will incur significant losses, just as the rest of Britain is beginning to tire of the Conservatives. But that’s really the only thing they can do unless the independence movement gets second wind.

  9. I could see the political map of Central Scotland reverting back in line of where it was in 2011 in 2021 with Labour gains in Glasgow Provan/ Maryhill & Springburn/ Coatbridge/ Rutherglen/ Uddingston ect but I would see the SNP holding Glasgow Southside/ Glasgow Cathcart/ East Kilbride/ Cumbernauld ect.

  10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40567597

    That’s not how you do this, Alec. Proper retired politicians are supposed to receive six-figure paycheques for speeches to Goldman Sachs 😉

  11. Local council by-election in the Inverurie & District ward today: an important one for the Conservatives and SNP in determining where they sit nationally.

  12. Decent result for the Tories in the Inverurie and District by-election:

    Con – 1,672 (48.5%) +12.6
    SNP – 1,146 (33.3%) +5.7
    LD – 295 (8.6%) -3.2
    Lab – 276 (8.0%) +3.7
    Grn – 56 (1.6%) new

    Con hold

  13. Well they are clearly doing exceptionally well in the north-east corner of Scotland (except in Aberdeen N & Dundee W, though that would hardly be surprising). They would be optimistic about holding many of their seats in Scotland at the moment, maybe even all of them since Labour is only an even vaguely credible threat in a small number of them.

  14. That’s perhaps a bit pessimistic on your party’s behalf, given that they held 5 or so of those Tory seats up to 2015 (I can think of Stirling, Eastwood, Ochil, Dumfries and Ayr…perhaps there are others)

    An unwinding of unionist tactical voting might also hand seats like Banff & Buchan back to the SNP

  15. It will be very difficult for Labour to win those seats again in the next general election, given that they are currently in third place. Generally in that situation you’d require one general election to overtake the SNP and become the clear progressive tactical choice, and then another election to win the seat. Perhaps if they do very well in 2022 they could snatch East Renfrewshire from third place. I think in the other seats the SNP would be more likely beneficiaries of a Tory collapse.

  16. For the record, of the 13 Tory seats in Scotland, six of them were Labour-held as recently as 2010. The five Hemmy listed, plus Aberdeen South.

  17. Yes I forgot Aberdeen. I doubt the UK’s main oil town will be very Corbyn-friendly.

  18. There was quite a good assessment of the polls vs local by elections in Scotland on Vote2012. The SNP appear to be doing worse than the 3 post GE polls suggest and likely closer to the GE result. Labour appear to be doing as well as the last YouGov poll suggests and the Tories as well as the Panelbase and Survation poll suggest

  19. That might have been my post on voteuk2012:

    “The Inverurie and District result was certainly a good one for the Conservatives: it confirms that the most recent YouGov poll in Scotland (which had the Conservatives on 20%) is well out of line with current public opinion.

    On the basis of the Cardonald, Fortissat, Elgin City North, Tain & Easter Ross and Inverurie & District by-election results, I would argue that the Conservatives are currently sitting on around 27-28% of the vote in Scotland, with little change in the vote for the Conservatives and SNP in the Conservative-SNP marginals and a more pronounced decline in the Conservative vote in areas where the Conservatives are not the central challengers to the SNP.

    Labour is in an even stronger position than the Conservatives: their vote has increased across the board, particularly in wards located within the party’s key target constituencies around the Central Belt.

    I suspect that in the event of a Scottish Parliamentary election both the Conservatives and Labour would do well, as we are currently in a position where the reputation of the UK-wide Conservative Party is severely damaged following the results of the general election and Scottish Labour doesn’t even have a leader yet… With focused campaigns based in Scotland, both parties can make gains on 2017 in Scotland.

    I suspect we are sitting at around:
    SNP 36%
    Lab 31%
    Con 27%
    LD 6%

    In a UK general election, Argyll & Bute, Perth & North Perthshire and Stirling would remain tight Conservative-SNP marginals. In a Scottish Parliamentary election, the Conservatives would take around 17 constituency seats.

    Labour would be looking at more than tripling its number of constituencies around Greater Glasgow, with further gains in Dunfermline & West Fife, Edinburgh North & Leith and the Western Isles. The party are approximately where they were in 2011.”

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