Glenrothes

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3685 (7.7%)
Labour: 14562 (30.6%)
Lib Dem: 892 (1.9%)
SNP: 28459 (59.8%)
MAJORITY: 13897 (29.2%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife. Part of the Fife council area.

Main population centres: Glenrothes, Cardenden, Leslie, Markinch, Kennoway.

Profile: Glenrothes is the administrative centre of Fife. It was originally built as a new town in the 1940s and 1950s to support a massive new coal mine, the Rothes Colliery. Incessant flooding forced the closure of the mine in 1961 after only 4 years operation, halting development and devasting the local economy. In hindsight the closure of the mine forced Glenrothes down a far more favourable path - becoming a successful centre for high tech industry and manufacturing and going through subsequent periods of development and expansion in the 1960s. It is a typical newtown, characterised by modern, low-rise housing, often built in parkland environments festooned with concrete public art.

Politics: Glenrothes and its predecessor, Central Fife, were both safe Labour seats, but like many others this fell to the SNP in 2015.


Current MP
PETER GRANT (SNP) Former public sector auditor. Fife councillor since 1992, former leader of Fife council. Contested Glenrothes 2008 by-election. First elected as MP for Glenrothes in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 2922 (7%)
Lab: 25247 (62%)
LDem: 3108 (8%)
SNP: 8799 (22%)
Oth: 425 (1%)
MAJ: 16448 (41%)
2005
Con: 2651 (7%)
Lab: 19395 (52%)
LDem: 4728 (13%)
SNP: 8731 (23%)
Oth: 1861 (5%)
MAJ: 10664 (29%)
2001*
Con: 2351 (7%)
Lab: 18310 (56%)
LDem: 2775 (9%)
SNP: 8235 (25%)
Oth: 841 (3%)
MAJ: 10075 (31%)
1997
Con: 3669 (9%)
Lab: 23912 (59%)
LDem: 2610 (6%)
SNP: 10199 (25%)
Oth: 375 (1%)
MAJ: 13713 (34%)

2015 Candidates
ALEX STEWART-CLARK (Conservative) Educated at London business school. Businessman.
MELANIE WARD (Labour)
JANE ANN LISTON (Liberal Democrat) Born Edinburgh. Educated at St Andrews University. Fife councillor 1995-2007.
PETER GRANT (SNP) Former public sector auditor. Fife councillor since 1992, former leader of Fife council. Contested Glenrothes 2008 by-election.
Links
Comments - No Responses on “Glenrothes”
  1. Labour held the Leslie & Markinch division in a by-election held yesterday. I don’t know at what stage in the voting Labour won but the party got about 175 more first-preference votes than the SNP. The other candidates were a long way behind.

  2. It’s a good result for Labour as SNP outpolled them in 2012 in that ward (2 SNP Cllrs elected vs 1 Labour).

  3. Prediction for 2015-
    Roy (Labour)- 59%
    SNP- 27%
    Conservative- 6%
    Liberal Democrats- 4%
    UKIP- 3%
    Others- 1%

  4. I think other people have already commented that it is POINTLESS making predictions on Scottish seats until we know the results of the referendum.

  5. I disagree with that. This is what this site is actually for.

  6. I’d agree with John.. if you do want to do it then everyone will dutifully take them with a ton of salt..

  7. The funny thing about this seat is that I reckon Mr. Roy’s result here in 2010 was very good, although it may have been a combination of the swing to Labour in Scotland as well as a Gordon Brown effect next door, this seat I think being his own constituency. I might be wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised. So in any event, I would see a slight fallback for Labour here in 2015 not being all that surprising.

  8. I can predict one thing for certain about Glenrothes in 2015, it wont be Lindsay Roy that will be returned as the MP, he announced he was standing down a couple of months ago.

  9. The Results is entitled to do predictions (although I agree that it’s of limited value this far out).

    But again, as has been (gently) pointed out a few times, it’s the number of entries in a short time that cause the problem. It shunts all the ongoing discussions down the list making it more difficult to follow the discussions.

    TR – perhaps just do one or two at a time might be better?

  10. I haven’t posted on here regularly for quite a while. But once I start posting again on a more consistent basis I immediately get met with reactions to my predictions that aren’t exactly positive.

    Getting criticised is one thing, but I won’t stop posting here because particular individuals don’t like me doing predictions on Scottish seats. In or out I suspect the SNP might recover in this seat, given the nature of the result here in 2010.

  11. I feel like “wait and see” is not the only way one can approach these things, though possibly ideally one would be able to give all these estimates with % probabilities and possibly also expected/predicted variation based on the result. I mean, it’s a yes/no referendum and there are possibilities as to what will happen after that given any set of results, but it’s a set of known unknowns rather than a total butterfly effect to be fair to TR.

  12. Indeed and it has to be remembered that Labour over performed in Scotland in 2010 anyway, which was probably down to Gordon Brown being their leader. Safe Labour seats swinging slightly to the SNP a la 1992 wouldn’t be totally out of the question I think, even if the referendum doesn’t go through- the biggest effect in terms of parliamentary elections I think will be seen at Holyrood, where the SNP might fare badly in the future if they don’t manage independence. At Westminster level, they could I reckon expect to at least stay at six or possibly seven MPs, but it would be like their 1997-2007 period all over again I suspect. Then there’s to consider what might happen if Scotland votes ‘Yes’; if that should happen I think there will be swings to them everywhere, both further ones at Holyrood, and ones at the Westminster elections that would bring them into play in places like Falkirk for example. But would Scotland be allowed to take part in the 2015 General Election if they vote to go independent?

  13. No they would not, or at the very least their MPs would be barred from voting on legislation primarily or entirely affecting Rump UK.

    However after a period in which Yes appeared to be gaining ground, I suspect Salmond has blown his chance these past two weeks. His handling of the currency issue has been calamitous. At a time when most people are quite concerned about their financial circumstances it will most likely be judged, in retrospect, as the killer blow.

    The big question for me is whether the Yes vote will be respectable enough for Salmond to be able to claim a mandate for devo max. Below 40-45% and that will be quite challenging IMO.

  14. LAB: 56%
    SNP: 32%
    CON: 6%
    UKIP: 3%
    LD: 3%

  15. The initial reaction amongst some voters is something like “how dare posh boy George Osborne dictate to us Scots!”. There may be a short-term sentimental spike in the Yes voting intention; but in the cold light of day, the very strong evidence that a ) an independent Scotland would have to create its own currency and b ) an independent Scotland would find it extremely difficult to join the EU is likely to be very difficult for Salmond, Sturgeon etc. to refute. The sort of response Salmond is coming up with – something like “they don’t know what they’re talking about” surely won’t wash; their behaviour isn’t in the least bit grown up. I wouldn’t count the Yes campaign out just yet but I would be extremely surprised if the last few days in the longer, rather than the shorter, term don’t take their toll on the campaign.

  16. Yes I agree with most of that. Crucially it wasn’t just “posh boy Osborne” saying that there will definitely not be a currency union, but the Labour party leadership as well.

    We took a nice few days holiday in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago and noticed, naturally enough, how much more intense the debate on this issue is in the media north of the border. After a couple of days listening to the SNP’s half baked arguments on Newsnight Scotland I drove home thinking they must be barmy.

  17. “The Labour Party hopes to draw up an all-women selection of potential replacements for local MP Lindsay Roy within around six weeks.”

    http://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/local-headlines/ladies-only-list-for-labour-1-3311549

  18. Melanie Ward won Labour selection. She is a former NUS Scotland Chair and current treasurer of Labour Women Network. She was runner up in 2011 Inverclyde selection

  19. prediction for 2015-

    lab- 58%
    SNP- 21%
    con- 6%
    Lib- 5%
    UKIP- 5%

  20. UKIP won’t save their deposit here. I’d have them lower & the SNP a bit higher personally.

  21. I think Scottish Labour will be more vulnerable in seats where the MP is retiring and there is an SNP MSP at Holyrood.

    Glenrothes is really odd because the SNP gained it in 2007…Labour the held the Westminster seat in 2010 with a majority of over 40% making it an almost certain regain at Holyrood the following year but the SNP held on in 2011 with an increased majority.

    I think the result here will be much closer than the predictions above (seemingly based on the previous Westminster vote) suggest.

    I don’t see how Labour can possibly win here by 37% with a new candidate and the current standing of Labour in Scotland.

  22. In fairness Dalek, that prediction was made in July

  23. Ooops….sorry…

  24. Council by election result of 26 March 2015 is another straw in the wind:

    Glenrothes West (Fife) vote result:

    SNP – 2539
    LAB – 1643
    CON – 202
    UKIP – 146
    LDEM – 61

    SNP gain from Labour

  25. A further look at the Glenrothes West (Fife) by election indicates that the total first preferences at the 2012 council elections were:

    Labour 1532 (2 candidates)

    SNP 1280 (2 candidates)

    It turns out that this council elects 3 members and that the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, sits for this area being elected in third place in 2012 (Labour won the first 2 places).

    The result may therefore be of considerable significance re the 2015 GE

  26. First preferences in 2012 were

    Labour 2132
    SNP 2200

    Lab had 2 candidates, SNP 3. They elected 2 each in 2012.

  27. Hi Andrea-thanks for that correction.

    I managed to misread the figures.

    I assume this must have been a hard fought contest in view of the forthcoming GE and Peter Grant’s candidature, with the result showing a meaningful swing to the SNP.

  28. Turnout was apparently over 30%, which, I’d assume, is pretty good for a council by-election.

  29. Labour is toast here…SNP win – !

  30. Labour Hold

  31. 2020

    *Grant (SNP) 16,089
    Snelgrove (Lab) 16,033
    McGuinness (SF) 15,454
    Rifkind (C) 3,719
    Helmer (UKIP) 3,132
    Bitchton (LD) 683

    SNP Hold
    Majority 56 0.1%

  32. What do people think of the way Scottish Council byelections are conducted? (I ask because there was one discussed a couple of posts above). I don’t mind the STV multi-member wards for an all-out election but I’m really not a fan of it for a byelection (I think they should revert to FPTP). I just don’t think the most popular candidate (on first preferences) losing to the least unpopular is a better system.

  33. The main problem with it is that the predominant party in the area almost always wins the by-election, even if they already have representation from that ward, so they often end up being over-represented if the ex-councillor is from a smaller party. Not sure there’s a neat way around that though.

    That said, I don’t see that having a preferential system for full elections, and a first past the post one for by-elections makes sense.

  34. This is a fundamental problem of local government PR, little commented on when it was introduced. The only practical solution is for the party losing a councillor to nominate a successor. However this is unpalatable, and suppose a councillor has changed parties since being elected, or was elected as an independent….

    The AM system allows you to have a by-election if a constituency member goes missing, and the party top up when a list member goes missing is more reasonable when the vote was for a party list in the first place.

  35. The other problem is that it’s really difficult to get elected if you aren’t the first candidate alphabetically for your party.

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