Glasgow North West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3692 (8.4%)
Labour: 13544 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 1194 (2.7%)
SNP: 23908 (54.5%)
Green: 1167 (2.7%)
Others: 349 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10364 (23.6%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CAROL MONAGHAN (SNP) Born Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Former teacher. First elected as MP for Glasgow North West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3537 (10%)
Lab: 19233 (54%)
LDem: 5622 (16%)
SNP: 5430 (15%)
Oth: 1760 (5%)
MAJ: 13611 (38%)
2005
Con: 3262 (10%)
Lab: 16748 (49%)
LDem: 6655 (20%)
SNP: 4676 (14%)
Oth: 2720 (8%)
MAJ: 10093 (30%)
2001*
Con: 2651 (10%)
Lab: 15102 (57%)
LDem: 3244 (12%)
SNP: 4048 (15%)
Oth: 1677 (6%)
MAJ: 11054 (41%)
1997
Con: 3881 (11%)
Lab: 20951 (62%)
LDem: 2453 (7%)
SNP: 5797 (17%)
Oth: 797 (2%)
MAJ: 15154 (45%)

2015 Candidates
ROGER LEWIS (Conservative)
JOHN ROBERTSON (Labour) Born 1952, Glasgow. Educated at Shawlands Academy Secondary School. British Telecom manager. MP for Glasgow Anniesland 2000 by-election to 2015.
JAMES HARRISON (Liberal Democrat)
MOIRA CRAWFORD (Green) Contested Glasgow North West 2010.
CAROL MONAGHAN (SNP) Born Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Teacher.
ZOE HENNESSY STREATFIELD (Scottish Communist Party)
CHRIS MACKENZIE (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 103 Responses on “Glasgow North West”
  1. Perfect summary.

  2. Tories win 2 Glasgow Regional List seats.

  3. Local by-election due in the Garscadden and Scoutstounhill ward on 6 October.

  4. SNP gain Garscadden and Scoutstounhill from Labour.

    No breakdown of results yet!

  5. Apparently the Tory vote is up from 2.6% in 2012 to over 10%. The SNP vote was probably +57% here back in 2016.

  6. Looks like a relatively narrow SNP gain by not more than 10%

    SNP WIN
    Lab 39.3 (-22.3)
    Con 10.2 (+7.6)
    Rest?

    Turnout 23.8%

    Roughly what I expected for Lab (about 40%, I’ll be honest and thought they almost had a chance) and this ward should go 2 Lab 2 SNP next year.

  7. Apparently the SNP figure was only 43% (that’s very bad for them if true). Green transfers must’ve won it for the SNP?

  8. Just a reminder according to that leaked Herald “report” on Labour’s projections in Glasgow they were anticipated to take only 30% of the vote “in areas such as Govan, Drumchapel, Maryhill and Garscadden”.

  9. [email protected] Where did you get the 56% vote figure for 2016? Labour are strongest in this ward and Drumchapel ward while the SNP is strongest in Partick West.

    It’s absurd to present an SNP Gain from the SNP on a 20% swing from Lab to SNP against and election when the SNP were ahead of Labour in Scotland as a very bad result for the SNP. Are you a Scottish Labour Spin Doctor or what?

  10. SNP Gain from Lab

  11. Labour fell from 62 to 39% here while the SNP increased from 27 to 43%. How is that result good for Labour?

    Of the 500 Tory transfers. 300 did not express a 2nd preference and 160 went to Labour and 50 to the SNP.

    The Green transfers went 2 to the SNP for every 1 to Lab.

  12. Given recent by-election results, and their historical strength in the area, I have to imagine that Labour thought they would hold this. As an overall indicator, it suggests that if the SNP are capable of generating 20% swings on 2012 results, even if only in a small number of areas, then their 2017 performance may be more robust than some think.

  13. 2012 is completely irrelevant – Scottish politics has changed completely since 2014. This by-election result is consistent with the trend set since the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, wherein the Labour party are performing well and the SNP are underperforming in comparison with similar by-elections from this time last year.

    Garscadden is now probably the most SNP-inclined part of Anniesland.

  14. Judging on what I’ve seen so far I am of the opinion that the SNP vote in 2017 will correlate with the Yes vote from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum around the Central Belt, which could result in some major swings towards the party in Greater Glasgow in particular. That being said their gains might be less prominent in areas with a tradition of voting Labour which voted No back in 2014.

  15. Garscadden/Scotstounhill by-election
    SNP gain from LAB

    Turnout: 23.80%

    Scottish National: 2,135 (42.6%)
    Labour: 1,944 (38.8%)
    Conservative: 510 (10.2%)
    Green: 242 (4.8%)
    Liberal Democrat: 97 (1.9%)
    UK Independence Party: 83 (1.7%)

    Change from 2012:
    Scottish National +15.6
    Labour -22.8
    Conservative +7.5
    Green +2.1
    UK Independence Party +0.9

    Apparently Labour lost out by around 100 votes.

  16. Before the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary election this would have been expected to have went comfortably SNP on the first round of voting.

  17. The late 2014 and 2015 by-elections are more likely the anomalous ones, where the idea that the governing party tends to do less well in by-elections than general elections temporarily didn’t apply.

  18. I thought that you were greatly disappointing by the Irvine West by-election Simon? You’ve changed your tune!

  19. I’m never disappointed or pleased by local by-election results. I just don’t care that much. Nor do I think they mean a whole lot, except possibly as indicators for future local elections. If you want to know about changes in national political opinion, look at opinion polling.

    On Irvine West in particular, I think it was a relatively poor result for the SNP. Since then, it’s become apparent that Labour is currently competitive in most by-elections in relatively working class, urban wards in Scotland. I suspect, in the long term, that means even less than the various Lib Dem pickups in local by-elections in England. Given Scottish Labour and the UK Lib Dems terrible opinion poll ratings, I don’t see either as evidence of a turnaround.

  20. NTY UK @ “2012 is completely irrelevant – Scottish politics has changed completely since 2014. This by-election result is consistent with the trend set since the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, wherein the Labour party are performing well and the SNP are underperforming in comparison with similar by-elections from this time last year.
    Garscadden is now probably the most SNP-inclined part of Anniesland.”

    Garcadden & Scotstounhill is not the most SNP inclined part of Anniesland. Partick West returned 2 SNP councillors, 1 Green and 1 Labour in 2012 (and the Labour councillor is now an independent). Garcadden & Scotstounhill and Drumchapel & Anniesland were both far more solid Labour wards both returning 3 Labour councillors to the SNP’s 1.

    Labour fell from 62 to 39% here while the SNP increased from 27 to 43%. How is that result possibly be good for Labour?

  21. Because he thinks that everything changed in 2014, so how people voted in 2012 tells you very little. Given how the SNP performed in Glasgow in 2015 and 2016, they should be more than 4% ahead of Labour in a ward like this.

    I think he underestimates the Government penalty at by-elections, and I think that we need to see a complete set of local election results to know which parts of seats like this are now best for the SNP or Labour, but he’s not wrong in saying that swings from 2012 tell us very little.

  22. Simon @ I think he is overestimating the SNP advance in the safe Labour Garcadden/ Scotstounhill and Drumchapel/ Anniesland wards where they had 3 of the 4 council seats in each. In think that the SNP majority in Glasgow NW and Glasgow Anniesland is more concentrated in Partick West where the SNP won in 2012 when Labour took 62% to the SNP’s 27% in Garcadden/ Scotstounhill (and a similar margin in Drumchapel/ Anniesland).

    Other than speculation, we don’t know how the three respective wards in the constituency will have voted in 2015 and 2016.

    Why would Garcadden/ Scotstounhill and Drumchapel/ Anniesland suddenly have become more SNP than the SNP’s strongest ward of Partick West?

    Here is the BBC’s coverage of the by election result?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37584867

  23. “Why would Garcadden/ Scotstounhill and Drumchapel/ Anniesland suddenly have become more SNP than the SNP’s strongest ward of Partick West?”

    Recall the swing in Glasgow North East / Provan? Labour only holding its most marginal constituency in Scotland in 2015? Things have changed, and Partick West was the only ward in Glasgow Anniesland to vote NO in 2014.

    @ Simon-

    Well that’s interesting, unfortunately the trends do not support your assumptions. There has been a clear drop in the SNP vote in local council by-elections in Scotland in 2016 in comparison to those held in 2015 despite little-no change in turnout… I wonder why?

  24. Also substantial: we are continuing to see significant swings towards the Conservatives in recent local by-elections… Must just be the weather these days!

  25. Knocking 10% off the SNP vote from 2015 to now would result in something like a 2% fall in overall turnout for a local by-election, assuming there’s no other changes at all. I think there are likely to be other changes in voting intention, so I don’t think you can tell too much about what’s going on just from the overall turnout figure.

    Overall, although there haven’t been a whole lot of voting intention polls, the recent polls on independence have been in the 45-50% Yes range, as has been the case since 2014 (except for immediately after the Euro referendum). I’d accept that the SNP have probably lost a little support to the Greens where that’s relevant, but I just don’t see much sign of a significant change in SNP support recently.

  26. “Knocking 10% off the SNP vote from 2015 to now would result in something like a 2% fall in overall turnout for a local by-election, assuming there’s no other changes at all. I think there are likely to be other changes in voting intention, so I don’t think you can tell too much about what’s going on just from the overall turnout figure.”

    That is a very ridiculous assumption! A minor drop in turnout should not have any substantial impact on the vote share. Was the drop in turnout from the 2015 to 2016 elections entirely, monolithically against the SNP? NO: the Liberal Democrats and Labour saw the number of votes in favour of them drop too! By this suggestion the SNP should have only managed 36% of the constituency vote in 2016… Instead they took 46.5% of the vote.

    There is no real evidence to even suggest that, with demography weighed in, turnout is lower than it was in regular local council by-elections held in 2015 (ie. not held on the day of the 2015 UK general election)… The important thing is that the trends have changed significantly since the Scottish Parliament election/EU referendum. Brushing this off as a minor change in turnout is not a valid answer.

  27. Well, my theory is that SNP voters are less motivated to get out and vote now than they were immediately after the referendum. Given that Labour has now been destroyed as a party of government, and the anger/frustration post-referendum has largely dissipated, it makes a degree of sense to me that the motivation now would be less than back then. It also seems plausible that unionists may well be more motivated to vote in things like local by-elections to show their disapproval of the Scottish Government/SNP. The point I was trying to make is that you can’t tell whether this theory is correct or not by looking at turnout figures.

    My general opinion is that local by-elections have minimal predictive value, and that you should look at opinion polls to see changes in voting intention. Where there’s a divergence between local election results and opinion polls. I’ll go with the polls all the time. For example, there’s a clear divergence in England where the Lib Dems do much better in local by-elections than their polling suggests they should, and the Tories are doing much worse. While I’d really quite like that to be a sign of impending Tory downfall, I think it tells us very little.

  28. On the Conservatives, I haven’t commented on that at all, as far as I know. I assume they are picking up votes mostly from centrist, unionist Labour voters who basically think Ruth Davidson is much closer to Blairism than Jeremy Corbyn is, or who are just generally frustrated with the uselessness of Scottish Labour.

  29. “Well, my theory is that SNP voters are less motivated to get out and vote now than they were immediately after the referendum. Given that Labour has now been destroyed as a party of government, and the anger/frustration post-referendum has largely dissipated, it makes a degree of sense to me that the motivation now would be less than back then. It also seems plausible that unionists may well be more motivated to vote in things like local by-elections to show their disapproval of the Scottish Government/SNP. The point I was trying to make is that you can’t tell whether this theory is correct or not by looking at turnout figures.”

    lol. Well the most recent poll suggests that the Conservatives are making some gains at the expense of the SNP: I feel that this is being played out in recent local council by-elections in Scotland.

  30. Is that the Panelbase poll that had the SNP on 47% for Westminster, and support for independence on exactly the same mark? 47% is what the SNP got on the constituency vote this year, so I’m not seeing a huge drop-off in support.

    I get that there’s an increase in Tory support, but I think any recent change is much more coming from ex-Labour voters than ex-SNP ones. [I do think that the Tories picked up votes in 2016 from people who voted SNP in 2011, but I think they were largely people in mostly rural seats who voted SNP in the past despite not wanting independence.]

  31. “I get that there’s an increase in Tory support, but I think any recent change is much more coming from ex-Labour voters than ex-SNP ones. [I do think that the Tories picked up votes in 2016 from people who voted SNP in 2011, but I think they were largely people in mostly rural seats who voted SNP in the past despite not wanting independence.]”

    That’s not fair: I know a lot of people who voted SNP in 2015 based on their policies of bringing more devolved powers to Holyrood whilst also voting Conservative in 2016. It’s not as monolithic as you think, especially in places such as rural areas such as Perthshire and Aberdeenshire!

  32. Labours majority is now a single seat in Glasgow.

    The SNP are almost certain to win more seats than Labour next May. Success for Labour would be to hold enough seats to stop the SNP winning a majority.

    The Tories will hold their seat in Pollokshields and are likely to win a seat in the new Partick East/ Kelvindale which despite its name is the resurrection on the old Kelvinside ward. It brings together all the parts of the West End where there are still some Tories (Kelvindale, Kelvinside, Hyndland, Dowanhill and the gentrified part of Partick). Langside, Victoria Park, Linn, Newlands are Tory longshots but far less likely.

  33. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39127506

    This MP chose to sit in a Select Committee adorned with an ash cross on her forehead.

    I don’t have a problem with it – other than it looking odd outside church – although I assume this is a Catholic tradition rather than a Christian thing as she suggests. As I’ve only ever seen RC kids with these in the North West. Although I imagine high C of E ie Anglo Catholics do this too.

    The Irish Drive Thru Ash Wed Ashes in Galway on the link would have made a great Father Ted episode!

    It reminded me of a Cllr (in St Helens maybe?) who was spotted eating meat on a Friday and he received hate mail [presumably from ‘fish on a Friday’ RCs] and Jimmy McGovern who said until he was 11 he thought everyone was Catholic.

  34. It’s very much a Catholic thing, hence the first day of Lent being called Ash Wednesday.

  35. I have had the ash-cross administered to me in an Anglican church.

  36. Yes, it seems to just be RC schools in Merseyside who do it and not C of E ones.

  37. In fact there are Tweets of Sinn Fein including Gerry Adams canvassing and all have ash crosses on their foreheads.

    I assume from yesterday or they just don’t wash it off.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)